Scott Rickenbach

NHL Saturday OVER 6.5 in Montreal Canadiens vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:07 ET - The Blue Jackets off a 5-4 win in OT last night and I look for another wild one tonight as they now travel to take on a Montreal team that also has been out of the playoff picture for quite some time and their goals allowed pattern reflects that as well. The Canadiens have lost 10 of 12 games and allowed 4.3 goals per game during this stretch. Montreal is off a 4-2 loss at Boston but the Bruins have been the best team in the league this season. Prior to being held to 2 goals at Boston, the Habs scored at least 3 goals in 8 of last 9 games. Keep in mind, we just need each team to get to at least 3 here and we then can not do any worse than a 4-3 final. Montreal should enjoy success against a Blue Jackets team allowing nearly 5 goals per game last 13 games. The thing is...Columbus has been scoring well lately too and that continued last night even though Laine is now out with an injury. The Jackets have now scored 4 or more goals in 5 of last 8 games. 8 of last 9 Columbus games have totaled at least 7 goals and all signs point to the same thing here. OVER 6.5 in Montreal

NHL Saturday OVER 6.5 in New York Islanders vs Buffalo Sabres @ 5:07 ET - Both teams in action last night. The Sabres won 5-4 and the Islanders lost 5-4 in OT. Both teams entered yesterday's game trending toward high-scoring games too so I look for it to continue here. Buffalo has seen 15 of last 21 games total at least 7 goals! Islanders have seen 5 of last 7 games total at least 7 goals and those 7 games have averaged 7.4 goals apiece. Isles have scored at least 4 goals in 4 straight games. Sabres have scored at least 3 goals in 5 of last 8 games and reached the 4 goal mark in 4 of those 5 games. OVER 6.5 in New York Islanders

NBA Saturday Indiana Pacers +9.5 @ Atlanta Hawks @ 5:10 ET - The Pacers lost by 25 at Boston last night but actually won the game by 17 points inside the arc. Why do I say that? Because the Celtics outscored Indiana by 42 points from three point land! Boston made 18 threes while the Pacers were an uncharacteristic 4 of 26 from three point land. That is unlikely to be repeated here plus Indiana got Haliburton back last night and might have Duarte back this evening. Either way, I like the Pacers here catching big points after last night's unusual results. Prior to last night's blowout loss due to disparate 3-point shooting results, Indiana had won 8 of 14 and 3 of the 6 losses were by 6 or less points. As you can see, a lot of value here with Pacers catching big points. The Hawks have only 2 wins by more than 8 points in last 13 games! Great value with the big points here! INDIANA +9.5

International Friendly Saturday Free Pick Germany Goal Line -1.5 -120 vs Peru @ 3:45 ET - After the World Cup disappointment, even though this match is a friendly, I feel Germany is going to come out and make a statement especially with being at home for this match. 6 of the last 7 victories for Germany have come by a multiple-goal margin. Peru is facing a top-level competitor here and I feel it will prove to be too much because of the additional motivation factor here. Lay it! Free Pick GERMANY -1.5 -120

NCAA Saturday Top Play Gonzaga Bulldogs +2.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 8:49 ET - The Huskies embarrassed Arkansas (and me) on Thursday as my big play was on the Razorbacks then. But what really happened? Give credit to Connecticut for sure but if you look at the box score, you'll see some keys that have led to value here. The Huskies actually had 17 turnovers compared to just 10 for Arky. Also, UConn had 9 LESS shots from the field than Arkansas! The key was the Huskies shot a ridiculous 57% from the field compared to Razorbacks shooting an equally ridiculous 32% from the field! That included Huskies outscoring the Hogs by 12 points from beyond the arc. I also like the fact that Arkansas had 6 more free throws than the Huskies. The point is that the box score says a lot about how that game played out as it has some interesting statistical anomalies and now we get a little extra value here with a very tough and resilient and battle-tested and well-coached Gonzaga team. Facing TCU and UCLA were very tough tests for Gonzaga and help them here as Huskies certainly had the easier draw with St Mary's and Arkansas last 2 games. Bulldogs hammered St Mary's by 26 in the WCC Championship Game earlier this month. Although certainly respect is given to head coach Dan Hurley of UConn, Mark Few of the Bulldogs has long been known one of, if not the, best one currently coaching college basketball. Don't be surprised if that is a key element in crunch time as this game plays out. Top Play GONZAGA +2.5

NCAA Saturday Florida Atlantic Owls +2 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 6:09 ET - The Owls are a #9 seed and catching just a bucket here against a Wildcats team that is from the Big 12 and seeded #3 too. Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing Florida Atlantic here. Everyone will be lining up on Kansas State thinking this is a trap line, etc. but look for the Cats to get upset in this one. FAU has plenty of confidence after outscoring Tennessee 40-28 in the 2nd half of their game Thursday. Kansas State blew 7 point leads multiple times in the 2nd half of their win over Michigan State. They ultimately got the win in overtime but the Wildcats could be a little more susceptible here after the way all that played out with an inability to hold on to leads as that game went on. FLORIDA ATLANTIC +2

2024 European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage Saturday Romania Goal Line -1.5 -150 @ Andorra @ 3:45 ET - Romania has qualified in 2000 and 2008 and 2016 and keeps alternating with years like 2004 and 2012 and 2020 in which they did not qualify. That said, they will bring a little extra edginess here as a result and I expect a blowout victory over an outclassed foe. Andorra is at home which is keeping this line more manageable but Romania still should dominate and win this by 2 or more goals. If you saw Moldova barely tie Faroe Islands yesterday (penalty kick at 87' mark) note that essentially that is the same level of Moldova club that beat Andorra last June while Romania hammered neighboring Moldova last November by a 5-0 count. That is just one example of the disparity between these clubs. Another is that Romania has beaten Andorra 4 straight times by a combined score of 14 to 1. This one also has blowout written all over it and so I am willing to lay the price here to have the goal line at less than 2 in this one. ROMANIA -1.5 -150