Sean Murphy

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday.

Bettors figure to line up to fade the Mavericks in this game as they check in off four straight wins including two in a row in 'upset' fashion over the Knicks and Warriors. We'll go the other way, however, and back Dallas as it looks to hand Los Angeles a second straight loss. The Lakers have won just three of their last nine games and two of those victories came at home. They figure to have their hands full with a Mavs team that is brimming with confidence right now and has been red hot offensively for weeks, shooting 50% or better in six of their last 10 games. Of course, this will be the second time Luka Doncic plays in Dallas since being traded away in stunning fashion last year. He poured in 42 points in a double-digit Lakers win in his first game back in Big D last season. That result won't be lost on the Mavs as they look to answer back and also avenge an earlier 129-119 loss suffered in Los Angeles in late November. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Florida over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Saturday.

Bettors seem to flock to the Wild as a home favorite but the fact is, they've been unreliable in that role this season, going 9-10 by my count. While they do own a 14-6-6 home record this season, they've only outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.1 goal at Grand Casino Arena. Florida checks in off a 2-1 shootout victory in Winnipeg on Thursday. You can see the wheels starting to turn for the Panthers right now as they've won four of their last six games and I think playing seven of their last eight games on the road has had a galvanizing effect. The knee-jerk reaction is probably to fade Florida off Thursday's win but we'll go the other way and back it at a generous price on Saturday. Take Florida (8*).

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Ball State at 2 pm et on Saturday.

There's very little separating these two teams but Ball State is being given the benefit of the doubt laying more than a handful of points on the strength of home court advantage on Saturday. We'll go the other way and back the underdog Huskies. Northern Illinois has really struggled shooting the ball during its current 1-5 slide. I do think the door is open for the Huskies to bounce back in that department here, however. Note that Ball State has allowed its last six opponents to knock down 29, 29, 25, 30, 26 and 25 field goals. That's despite five of those six foes hoisting up 54 or fewer field goal attempts. The Cardinals aren't exactly running away and hiding from the opposition right now as they've made good on 27 or fewer field goals in six straight and nine of their last 11 games. Off a big road win at Central Michigan on Tuesday, I think Ball State is in for a letdown here. Take Northern Illinois (10*).

My selection is on Arkansas-Pine Bluff plus the points over Southern at 6 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Saturday as it looks to snap its three-game losing streak on the road against Southern University. The Golden Lions have been idle since Monday's overtime loss at home against Bethune-Cookman. While the wins haven't come, we'll give them credit for holding five straight and seven of their last eight opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals, effectively capping the ceiling of opponents' offensive production. That's obviously key in a game where they're catching this many points. Southern hasn't exactly been blowing the doors off its opponents. It has had a full week to pat itself on the back following two straight 'upset' wins on the road. Note that the Jaguars have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in four straight games. That's despite hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in two of those contests. They've admittedly been playing good defensive basketball but they'll have a difficult time replicating last Saturday's performance, where they held Grambling State to just 14-off-44 from the field. Note that six of their last 10 opponents have put together 25+ successful field goal attempts. Southern does own the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season but Arkansas-Pine Bluff has faced the more difficult schedule. Take Arkansas-Pine Bluff (8*).

SWAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Alabama State plus the points over Prairie View A&M at 5:30 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the points with Alabama State as it looks to bounce back following a narrow loss against Alabama A&M earlier this week. The Hornets continue to play reasonably well offensively having knocked down 25 or more field goals in four of their last five games. They should thrive against a Prairie View A&M squad that has proven vulnerable defensively, allowing six of its last eight foes to make good on 25 or more field goals. The Panthers are laying a considerable number of points here given they've been limited to 24 or fewer made field goals in four of their last six contests. Meanwhile, Alabama State has been quietly effective defensively, holding five straight foes to 23 or fewer successful field goal attempts. Finally we'll note that while the Hornets have posted the inferior overall record in this matchup this season, they've faced a considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Alabama State (10*).

Saturday CBB Free play. My selection is on Idaho State plus the points over Montana at 6 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with Idaho State two nights ago as it lost its second straight game, falling by a 74-62 score at Montana State. We'll call for the Bengals to rebound and salvage the finale of this two-game Montana trip on Saturday. The Grizzlies shot the lights out in a double-digit win over Weber State on Thursday. They've connected on a blistering 36 and 31 field goals in their last two games after being held to 26 or fewer in four straight and six of their previous seven contests. I do think the Bengals can keep them in check here, noting that they've limited 10 of their last 12 opponents to 60 or fewer field goal attempts. Montana isn't an elite defensive team by any means, having allowed 15 of its last 18 opponents to connect on 25 or more field goals. While Montana does own the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season, Idaho State has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Idaho State.

My selection is on Texas-Rio Grande Valley plus the points over Houston Christian at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams enter this game riding two-game winning streaks. However, the visiting Vaqueros own the slightly better overall record this season and have faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Note that Houston Christian shot a blistering 60% from the field in its narrow 82-80 win over Northwestern State last time out. That type of shooting has been the exception rather than the rule for the Huskies this season. Of note, they enter Saturday's contest having been held to 25 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Just getting shots off has been a struggle at times, noting they've hoisted up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight contests. Texas-Rio Grande Valley has played at a similarly slow pace but I think it is the better defensive team, noting that it has limited 12 of its last 16 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. In fact, it has held five of its last seven foes to 23 or fewer successful field goal attempts. Houston Christian on the other hand has allowed 26 or more made field goals in two straight and 11 of its last 13 games. Take Texas-Rio Grande Valley (8*).

My selection is on Southern Miss plus the points over Coastal Carolina at 1 pm et on Saturday.

There's not a lot separating these two teams at all in terms of overall record or strength of schedule to this point. We'll back the Golden Eagles on Saturday as they look to end their three-game slide while also halting the Chanticleers four-game winning streak and we'll grab all the points we can get. Southern Miss' last two games certainly could have gone either way after it started its four-game road stretch with a blowout loss at Troy. The Golden Eagles have had a tough time getting their share of scoring opportunities lately but should be afforded plenty against a vulnerable Coastal Carolina team that has yielded 64 or more field goal attempts in three straight and six of its last eight games. The Chanticleers have allowed three straight and six of their last seven foes to connect on 25+ field goals. On the flip side, Coastal Carolina has been limited to 26 or fewer made field goals in 10 of its last 11 contests so I don't think we'll see it run away in this matchup. Southern Miss checks in having held three of its last four foes to exactly 20 made field goals and has allowed more than 26 made field goals just once in its last seven games. Take Southern Miss (8*).