Sean Murphy

My selection is on Houston moneyline over Minnesota at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Timberwolves have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after staging an 'upset' win in Boston on Sunday. Minnesota has now gone 3-1 since losing Anthony Edwards to injury. I think they're going to be in tough on Wednesday, however, as they open a two-game homestand against a Rockets team that's sure to be in a foul mood following Monday's 'upset' defeat in Chicago. That performance in the Windy City was certainly an uncharacteristic one for Houston as it allowed the opposition to shoot 50% or better for a second straight game. The good news for the Rockets is that the wheels are starting to turn in the right direction for them offensively as they've produced 116, 117, 123 and 124 points over their last four games. This is certainly a tough matchup on the road against the Timberwolves, who are admittedly playing terrific defense right now, but I think the Rockets can go blow-for-blow. Despite the loss on Monday, Houston has still outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.9 points on the road this season. The Rockets won and covered in the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season, prevailing 110-105 back on January 16th despite being in a difficult back-to-back situation after playing the Thunder the previous night. That spot set up similarly to this one with Houston off a loss and Minnesota off an 'upset' win on the road. Take Houston moneyline (8*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Minnesota at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

With Anthony Edwards slated to miss at least one more game, we'll confidently back the 'under' as the Rockets challenge the Timberwolves in Minnesota on Wednesday. Houston desperately needs to tighten things up again after suffering a 132-124 'upset' loss in Chicago two nights ago. The Rockets have gotten away from what served them best earlier in the season and that was playing methodical offense and tough defense. While they have still won two of their last three games, even their last victory was of the high-scoring variety and came by the narrowest of margins (123-122 against Miami). I think this is a favorable 'get right' spot for Houston defensively as Minnesota, while coming off an 'upset' win in Boston on Sunday, has connected on fewer than 40 field goals in two straight and three of its last five contests. The T'Wolves have managed to tread water in Edwards' absence thanks to playing incredibly stout defense, limiting four straight and five of their last six foes to 40 or fewer made field goals despite all six of those opponents getting off 92 or more field goal attempts. I don't think we'll see Houston push the pace nearly as much here, noting that it has gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in three of its last five games and 87 or less in 17 of its last 24 contests. The last meeting between these two teams totalled just 215 points but that came back in mid-January and has been long forgotten by most bettors. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Boston +1.5 goals over Buffalo at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday.

The Bruins were embarrassed on home ice by the Maple Leafs last night, dropping a critical 4-2 decision as they continue to battle for a playoff spot in the crowded Eastern Conference. We'll grab the insurance goal with Boston on Wednesday as it looks to rebound in Buffalo. The Sabres have to feel pretty good about themselves as they return home following a 3-1 west coast road trip that saw them collect seven of a possible eight points. I think it would be easy for Buffalo to under-estimate Boston in this spot with the B's in a back-to-back and given their road struggles this season (note that the Sabres took the last meeting in Buffalo 4-1 on December 27th). However, I'll point out that the Sabres have gone just 1-7 in their last eight home games when factoring in the -1.5 goal puck-line. Meanwhile, you would have to go back to March 5th in Nashville to find the last time Boston lost by two goals or more on the road, posting a 5-0 record since when factoring in the +1.5 goal puck-line. Take Boston +1.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on New York over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday.

The Rangers have lost five straight games and just wrapped up an 0-2 homestand with a lifeless 2-1 defeat against the Senators on Monday. We'll call for them to bounce back on Wednesday as they head out on the road, where they've inexplicably played their best hockey this season (they've actually outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.1 goals away from home), even if that isn't saying much. Toronto is in a letdown spot after staging an 'upset' win in Boston last night. The Maple Leafs have been alternating good and bad offensive showings lately and I think there's a good chance we see that continue on Wednesday as we have at least started to see the wheels turn in the right direction defensively for the Rangers over the last couple of games (four goals allowed in regulation time after giving up 16 in their previous three contests). Note that Toronto has strung together consecutive wins just once since January 13th, that coming during a three-game winning streak from January 31st to February 3rd. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday.

I don't mind laying some juice to get this total at 6.5 on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' the Rangers 2-1 home loss to the Senators on Monday. Toronto skated to a 4-2 'upset' win in Boston last night. I'm anticipating a letdown from the Maple Leafs on Wednesday, noting that they've been wildly inconsistent offensively. As a whole, they've struggled, producing three goals or less in 12 of their last 15 games. The Rangers arguably have one of the league's worst offenses right now and that was on full display in Monday's poor showing at home against Ottawa. New York has been held to three goals or less in five straight games following a brief surge once they employed a 'youth movement' of sorts following the trade deadline. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday.

This spot sets up perfectly as the Yankees and Giants open the season at pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, with all hands on deck in the two bullpens and two premier starting pitchers taking the mound in Max Fried and Logan Webb. While the Yankees obviously boast one of the best offenses in the baseball and the Giants figure to be improved as well this season, I think the pitchers win out on this night. Fried's Spring numbers may give some bettors pause but I don't think the veteran left-hander will have any difficulty ramping up as the games count for real. Note that he did at least minimize the damage allowing three earned runs or less in all three of his Spring outings. Webb of course pitched for the USA at the World Baseball Classic, in addition to his Spring work with the Giants. All told, he gave up eight earned runs in 18 innings but six of those came in his final tune-up start against the Rockies. I'm confident we'll see him settle down and pitch well in the Giants home opener on Wednesday. Note that Webb racked up 21 strikeouts in those 18 Spring/WBC innings. Take the under (8*).