Sean Murphy

NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Chicago at 8 pm et on Saturday.

When you think Packers-Bears in Chicago in January, you think tough defense and points coming at a premium. I just don't think either team has the defensive personnel in place for that type of contest on Saturday, however. The last time these two teams met in a December thriller here at Soldier Field we saw just 38 total points and that's certainly helping to keep this total in check. The Bears defense is going to be in tough trying to contain the Packers on the ground and through the air. Injuries have played a part but Chicago has struggled defensively, only masked by forcing turnovers, which as we know aren't really a predictable metric. It's a similar story for the Packers defense. Since losing Micah Parsons they've been a completely different team defensively and don't have much of a hope of slowing the Bears on the ground in particular. Caleb Williams would have to turn in a disastrous performance for the Bears not to produce their share of points in this matchup. I'm willing to bet on Williams playing well enough and both teams contributing enough to topple this reasonably low total. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Heat figure to be in a foul mood on Saturday as they've had a few days off to stew over a blowout defeat to open this road trip in Minnesota on Tuesday. I like their chances of bouncing back on Saturday as they catch the Pacers on just one day of rest after delivering an 'upset' win in Charlotte on Thursday. Indiana has delivered the cash in consecutive games but you would have to go back to November to find the last time they posted an ATS winning streak longer than that. Miami knows this road trip is only going to get tougher as it concludes in Oklahoma City tomorrow. Expect the Heat to go all out to avoid a second straight loss on Saturday. Take Miami (8*).

My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:40 pm et on Saturday.

The Clippers rolled to a 121-105 win in Brooklyn last night and have alternated losses and wins over their last four games, both SU and ATS. They'll face a revenge-minded Pistons squad in Detroit on Saturday after the Clippers prevailed 112-99 in Los Angeles in the most recent meeting between the two teams on December 28th. That was an ugly game all around but the Clippers jumped ahead early and never looked back. Detroit is coming off three straight victories both SU and ATS and is in an interesting scheduling spot on Saturday. It has been idle since Wednesday's 108-93 win over Chicago and won't play again until Thursday when it hosts Phoenix. I expect to see Detroit 'empty the tank' in this one and ultimately pull away for the win and cover. Take Detroit (8*).

My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over New Mexico State at 8 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the points with the underdog Blue Raiders on Saturday as they look to bounce back following an 'upset' loss at UTEP on Thursday. That marked Middle Tennessee State's second straight ATS defeat but only served to snap a two-game SU winning streak. The Blue Raiders are a healthy 9-6 on the season, only slightly worse than New Mexico State (9-5) and it's worth noting that Middle Tennessee State has faced the more difficult schedule. New Mexico State cruised to an 80-64 home win over Western Kentucky on Thursday, snapping its two-game slide. The Aggies were fortunate that the Hilltoppers were ice cold shooting as the latter made good on just 21-of-68 field goal attempts. The Blue Raiders appear better-suited to take advantage of the Aggies vulnerability defensively, noting that MTSU has conncted on 32, 24 and 28 field goals over its last three contests. On the flip side, the Blue Raiders have been solid if not spectacular defensively, holding six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to 27 made field goals or fewer. Take Middle Tennessee State (8*).

Conference-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over UTEP at 4 pm et on Saturday.

We'll lay the points with Western Kentucky on Saturday as it looks to rebound following a blowout loss at New Mexico State on Thursday, marking its second straight ATS defeat. This is a soft landing spot for the Hilltoppers as they stay on the road to face a 5-10 UTEP squad that has faced a weaker schedule than them by most metrics this season (Western Kentucky checks in 9-6). The Hilltoppers certainly had their opportunities against New Mexico State, getting off 68 field goal attempts, but shot a miserable 30.9% from the field. Of note, Western Kentucky has held five of its last six opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals and it draws a favorable matchup in that regard here. UTEP plays at a fairly slow pace, often to its own detriment, having connected on 26 or fewer field goals in seven straight and eight of its last nine contests. The Miners have yet to allow an opponent to get off 60+ field goal attempts this season yet they've still yielded 26 or more made field goals in three straight and six of their last 13 contests. Take Western Kentucky (10*).

My selection is on William and Mary minus the points over Drexel at 2 pm et on Saturday.

We swung and missed on a big play on William and Mary last time out as it dropped an 81-70 'upset' decision at Monmouth on Thursday. The Tribe ended up chasing that game for most of the night but I expect a different story to unfold as they look to salvage the finale of this three-game road trip on Saturday. Note that William and Mary continues to find its opportunities offensively, having knocked down 25 or more field goals in 12 straight games and 28 or more in seven of its last nine contests. Drexel on the other hand has connected on just 21, 18, 24 and 19 field goals over its last four games with the high-water mark coming in a loss at home against Hofstra. Of note, William and Mary owns the better overall record in this matchup this season and has also faced the more difficult schedule. Look for the Tribe to take their frustrations out on the Dragons here. Take William and Mary (8*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Syracuse at 2 pm et on Saturday.

We won with Syracuse in its impressive road victory at Georgia Tech last time out but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade the Orange as they wrap up their two-game road trip at Pittsburgh on Saturday. The Panthers do own the worse overall record in this matchup this season but they've also faced the slightly more difficult schedule by most metrics. While Syracuse is riding high off that victory at Georgia Tech, Pitt figures to be in a foul mood following consecutive losses at Miami and at home against Clemson. I do like the way the Panthers have been playing defensively as they've held five straight and seven of their last eight opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go all the way back to November 20th to find the last time they allowed an opponent to get off 60+ field goal attempts. The Orange have a fairly low ceiling offensively or at least they have lately, connecting on 27 or fewer field goals in four straight and 11 of their last 12 contests. Meanwhile, they've been affording the opposition plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 62 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five games. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Boston College at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We'll lay the points with Louisville as it looks to snap its two-game SU and ATS losing streak at home against Boston College. The Cardinals have run into a couple of tough matchups lately in a road game against Stanford and a home date with Duke. Prior to that, Louisville had won 11 of its first 13 games this season, going 9-4 ATS along the way. I like its chances of taking its frustrations out on the Eagles on Saturday. Note that the Cardinals own the considerably better overall record in this matchup this season and have also faced the more difficult schedule. They enter this contest having knocked down 26 or more field goals in four straight and 12 of 15 games this season. They'll face an Eagles squad that has yielded 60+ field goal attempts in four of their last five and 11 of 15 contests this season. Meanwhile, Boston College has connected on 24 or fewer field goals in seven straight games and will have a difficult time finding enough opportunities to keep this game close, noting that Louisville has held five straight opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Take Louisville (8*).

Saturday CBB Free play. My selection is on VCU minus the points over George Mason at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We'll lay the short number with VCU as it looks to hand George Mason its first home loss of the season on Saturday. The Rams own the inferior overall record in this matchup this season but have also faced the considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. They figure to be in a foul mood ahead of this game after suffering an 'upset' loss at home against Saint Louis on Wednesday. They simply couldn't make the most of their opportunities in that contest as they knocked down just 18-of-63 field goal attempts. I like the bounce back spot here as George Mason has shown little interest or ability to control its opponents' tempo, allowing more than 60 field goal attempts in four of its last five games. The Patriots haven't been as prolific as the Rams offensively, knocking down 27 or fewer field goals in six of their last seven contests. Take VCU.

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Carolina at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is a 'revenge' game for the Rams after they dropped a 31-28 decision as double-digit favorites here in Carolina in late November. Nothing went right for Los Angeles in that contest as it lost the turnover battle 3-0 and the Panthers came up with some incredibly fortuitous plays on offense. Here, the Panthers best plan of attack is to shorten proceedings and desperately try to stay within arm's reach for four quarters. The problem is, Carolina's ground game has all but disappeared in recent weeks and I don't think QB Bryce Young can be relied upon to consistently move the chains with his arm or his legs against this Rams defense. Offensively, Los Angeles is healthier than it's been in weeks, even if it does have a concern on the offensive line with Kevin Dotson sidelined. I do think we'll see the Rams two-headed ground attack thrive while the Panthers secondary has a difficult time 'picking its poison' against the likes of Puka Nacua and a now-healthy DaVante Adams. Of note, the Rams four road wins (five if you count a victory over the Jaguars overseas) all came by at least two touchdowns. The straight-up winner has gone 15-1-1 ATS in the Rams 17 games this season. Take Los Angeles (8*).