Sean Murphy

My selection is on Miami minus the points over Ole Miss at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Ole Miss has captured everyone's attention after it prevailed in an overtime thriller against mighty Georgia in the quarter-final round of College Football Playoffs. That was obviously a revenge-fuelled victory for the Rebels, who have looked like a team on a mission. We'll fade Ole Miss off that 'upset' win, however, as Miami has all the tools to ultimately pull away in this contest. The Hurricanes had to be pleased to see the Rebels advance as I think they do match up well here. Miami has reeled off six straight victories including three in a row ATS and flips to a favored role off back-to-back 'upset' wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State. Of note, while they own the slightly worse overall record, the Canes have faced the more difficult schedule compared to the Rebels this season by most metrics. I think Miami's defense and ground attack will ultimately be the difference in this intriguing clash of styles. Take Miami (8*).

My selection is on Cal-Riverside plus the points over Cal State-Bakersfield at 9:30 pm et on Thursday.

Cal-Riverside has run into some trouble lately, losing three straight games including two in a row ATS entering Thursday's matchup against Cal State-Bakersfield. While the home side does own the better overall record in this matchup this season it's by the slightest of margins and Riverside has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. We'll fade Bakersfield here as it is ripe for a letdown off a stunning 'upset' win at Cal-Davis last time out. Riverside has had a week to stew over an ugly 88-45 loss at home against a good Hawaii team. We'll call for the Highlanders to bounce back on Thursday. Take Cal-Riverside (8*).

My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. 

We'll lay the points with the Ragin' Cajuns on Thursday as they look to snap their two game SU and ATS losing skid at home against Louisiana-Monroe. It's been a tough 3-13 start to the season for both of these teams. Keep in mind, Louisiana-Lafayette has faced the considerably more difficult schedule to this point. The Ragin' Cajuns continue to play incredibly tough defense having held 10 straight and 14 of their 16 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, thanks in large part to dictating a slow pace. It's been a totally different story for the Warhawks as they've played matador-like defense, allowing seven of their last eight and 13 of 16 opponents to knock down 28 or more field goals. It should only be a matter of time before the Ragin' Cajuns pull away in this contest. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (8*).

My selection is on Portland plus the points over Pacific at 10 pm et on Thursday.

We'll grab the points with the underdog Pilots at home as they look to snap their long six-game losing streak on Thursday. Portland has managed to win two of its last three games ATS. It has faced an absolutely brutal schedule lately, going up against the likes of Oregon, Cal-Santa Barbara, Washington State, Santa Clara, Saint Mary's and San Francisco (with four of those games coming on the road) in succession. It doesn't get much more difficult for teams out west. Pacific is probably feeling pretty good about itself after posting consecutive home wins over Oregon State and Pepperdine and has had a few days off to pat itself on the back. Of note, the Tigers have knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in four straight games. I think they'll have a difficult time putting away a hungry Pilots squad in this one. Take Portland (8*).

My selection is on Texas State plus the points over Southern Miss at 8 pm et on Thursday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with underdog Texas State in this matchup on Thursday. The Bobcats have inexplicably dropped the cash in eight straight games. That comes on the heels of a five-game ATS winning streak earlier in the season. I do like the way this matchup sets up for them as they've had four days to fine-tune their game since a narrow win over Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday. Southern Miss has to be feeling pretty good about itself after closing its three-game road trip with consecutive wins and covers at aforementioned Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana-Lafayette. The Golden Eagles don't pack quite the same punch offensively as the Bobcats and I think that makes it tough on them in this particular matchup. Apart from an offensive outburst against lowly Louisiana-Monroe two games back, Southern Miss has been held to 27 or fewer made field goals in eight of its last nine contests. Texas State on the other hand has connected on 26 or more field goals in six of its last seven and eight of its last 10 games. The Bobcats want to play fast and the Golden Eagles haven't really been able to consistently dictate a slower pace, allowing 62 or more field goal attempts in five of their last nine games. Take Texas State (8*).

Big Sky Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Northern Arizona plus the points over Weber State at 8 pm et on Thursday.

I think the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this matchup. Weber State does own the slightly better overall record this season but Northern Arizona has faced the more difficult schedule (albeit not by much) by most metrics. The Wildcats check in off a double-digit win over Sacramento State last time out. In fact they've scored 90+ points in three straight games, going 2-1 over that stretch. Still, they're just 1-5 ATS over their last six lined contests. Northern Arizona comes off a tough two-game road trip that saw it go 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, dropping games against Montana and Montana State. I do like the fact that the Lumberjacks have limited seven straight opponents to 60 or fewer field goal attempts and six of those foes to 56 or less. That should serve them well against a Weber State team that would prefer to go up-tempo. Take Northern Arizona (10*).

My selection is on North Florida plus the points over West Georgia at 7 pm et on Thursday.

While North Florida is a miserable 2-13 to start the season, not a lot more could have been expected as it has faced a very difficult schedule - far tougher than that of Thursday's opponent, West Georgia, by most metrics. The Ospreys will look to get on track here and I think they're catching the Wolves at the right time. West Georgia has had four days off to pat itself on the back following a sweep of their two-game homestand that included minor 'upset' victories over Bellarmine and Eastern Kentucky. The Wolves have reeled off three straight ATS wins but I look for that streak to end here as they lay points on the road. Of note, West Georgia has proven vulnerable defensively, allowing seven of its last eight opponents to connect on at least 29 field goals. North Florida is comfortable pushing the pace and hasn't been lifeless offensively, knocking down 25 or more field goals in four of its last five games. While the Ospreys have obviously struggled defensively that again goes back to the incredibly difficult schedule that has included games against the likes of Florida, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Miami and others. Take North Florida (8*).

CAA Game of the Year. My selection is on William and Mary minus the points over Monmouth at 7 pm et on Thursday.

We'll lay the points with William and Mary on Thursday as it looks to rebound following a disappointing loss at College of Charleston earlier this week. That defeat only served to span the Tribe's three-game SU and nine-game ATS winning streak. It was quite simply an off shooting night for William and Mary as it connected on just 25-of-77 field goal attempts in the loss, perhaps displaying a little rust after a four-day layoff. Now the Tribe have had a couple of days to stew over that defeat and I expect them to bounce back on Thursday. Monmouth has been idle since Saturday's stunning double-digit 'upset' win at Towson. The Hawks took full advantage of an ice cold shooting performance from the Tigers in that one (18-of-66 from the field). Of note, Monmouth is still just 2-4 SU and ATS over its last six games. The Hawks own the worse overall record in this particular matchup this season and have also faced the slightly easier schedule by most metrics. They've knocked down 26 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven contests and I think they'll have a difficult time keeping pace here. Take William and Mary (10*).

Thursday CBB Free play. My selection is on Chicago State plus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 5 pm et on Thursday.

We'll grab the points with Chicago State on Thursday as it looks to snap its four-game losing streak on the road against Fairleigh Dickinson. There's really nothing to fear in this matchup. The Cougars may own the worse overall record but they've faced the far more difficult schedule. I think we'll see Chicago State push the pace a little bit in this game, noting that it has gotten off 58 or more field goal attempts in nine straight games - somewhat matchup immune in that department. Fairleigh Dickinson does like to play at a slower pace but hasn't really been able to dictate proceedings this season. Offensively, the Knights are limited. They do check in 3-1 ATS over their last four games but that comes on the heels of an 0-8 ATS start to the campaign. Take Chicago State.