Sean Murphy

My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over San Francisco at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with San Francisco on Sunday as it delivered a 67-59 'upset' win at Seattle. I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade the Dons on Tuesday as they stay on the road to face Oregon State. Note that San Francisco is in uncharted territory right now, riding a season-high five-game ATS winning streak. I'm not convinced the Dons are well-suited to be laying points on the road, however, noting that they've knocked down more than 27 field goals on only two occasions this season, against little-known UC-Santa Cruz in their season-opener in November and two games back against a bad Morgan State team. Defensively, they've performed well but I do think the fact that they've allowed 62 or more field goal attempts in six of their last eight games is concerning. Oregon State will look to shake off a 102-64 blowout loss suffered at home against Santa Clara on Sunday. Prior to that contest, the Beavers had gone 4-1 SU and ATS over their last five games. Their offense has come up empty on a couple of occasions lately (including Sunday's contest against Santa Clara) but they do check in having connected on 25 or more field goals in four of their last six contests following a slow start to the campaign. Oregon State has limited six of its last seven opponents to 60 or fewer field goal attempts. Finally, we'll note that while the Dons do own the better overall record this season, the Beavers have faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Oregon State (8*).

Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 11:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Clippers have reeled off four straight wins both SU and ATS with all four victories coming by double-digit margins. I question whether they can keep it up, noting that they've gotten off just 80, 77, 69 and 75 field goals over that stretch, obviously shooting exceptionally well along the way. The Kings, while one of the league's bottom-feeders, are a volume-shooting team and I think they can get enough opportunities to ultimately keep this game close on Tuesday. Note that Sacramento has hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in 10 of its last 16 games. It managed to knock down 40 or more field goals in 13 of those contests. This will be the first meeting between these divisional opponents this season and as such, I'm not sure the betting marketplace has a firm handle on the line. While the Kings are just 2-4 over their last six games only one of those four defeats came by double-digits (on Sunday against the Lakers). Take Sacramento (10*).

My selection is on Boston minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Jazz have had a couple of days off to bask in their two-game winning streak that included a big 'upset' win on the road against the Spurs on Saturday. Prior to their current streak they had lost four games in a row and they remain just 12-19 SU on the season. I like the Celtics chances of bringing the Jazz back to reality on Tuesday with Boston in a foul mood after dropping a 114-108 'upset' decision in Portland on Sunday. That loss snapped the Celtics four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS). This is a chance for the C's to get back on track ahead of two more road games to wrap up this west coast trip in Sacramento and Los Angeles later this week. The Jazz will have one eye on a road trip of their own that begins on Thursday against the Clippers in Los Angeles. Take Boston (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Canucks were somewhat surprisingly pegged as favorites in Seattle last night and ultimately pulled out a shootout victory. Now they return home on no rest to host a Flyers team coming off a 4-1 loss to that same Kraken team in Seattle on Sunday. We find Philadelphia favored in this spot, and rightfully so in my opinion, noting that it has gone a respectable 8-6-3 on the road this season while Vancouver is a miserable 4-11-1 at home where it has been outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals. This is a revenge spot for the Canucks after suffering a 5-2 loss in Philadelphia last week but I think the Flyers end up tagging them again. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on USC minus the points over TCU at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the points with the Trojans on the fast track at the Alamodome on Tuesday. USC rolled to a 9-3 record during the regular season and did so despite a difficult Big Ten schedule. TCU's Big 12 slate was more forgiving but it only managed to go 8-4 overall including a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven contests. Both teams do enter this game off lopsided victories the last time they played with USC beating rival UCLA 29-10 and TCU hammering Cincinnati 45-23. Neither of these teams have run the ball particularly well this season. With that being said, I like the Trojans chances of stamping out the Horned Frogs passing game on Tuesday and ultimately pulling away for a win and cover. Take USC (8*).

Tuesday CFB Free play. My selection is on Illinois plus the points over Tennessee at 5:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Tennessee may come out of the mighty SEC but Illinois actually faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics this season. The Illini navigated that schedule well from a betting perspective, going 7-4-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Volunteers were one of the worst bets in the country down the stretch, dropping the cash in seven of their last nine regular season games. While I don't necessarily feel that the wrong team is favored in this matchup, I do think the Vols are laying too many points in a game that could very well go down to the wire in Nashville. Take Illinois.

My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over Louisiana Tech at 2 pm et on Tuesday.

Louisiana Tech started the season 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS but went 3-4 SU and ATS the rest of the way and faced one of the weakest schedules in all of college football. Coastal Carolina on the other hand got off to a 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS start but wrapped up the regular season with three straight losses both SU and ATS. The Chanticleers faced a considerably more difficult schedule than the Bulldogs. So here we're catching a ton of points with Coastal Carolina and of course opt-outs and injuries play a role in that. With that being said, I think the Chanticleers show up and ultimately give the Bulldogs a run in this Independence Bowl matchup on Tuesday. Take Coastal Carolina (8*).