Sean Murphy

My selection is on Georgia Southern minus the points over Appalachian State at 2 pm et on Monday.

I'm seeing a lot of support for Appalachian State leading up to this game but the money has obviously been going in support of Georgia Southern given the line move. I'm not sure the Mountaineers have any business being in this game let alone catching just single-digits. Georgia Southern owns the better overall record this season and has faced the more difficult schedule. Appalachian State managed to stay competitive over its last two games (winning one of them in 'upset' fashion over Marshall) only thanks to winning the turnover battle by a 5-1 margin over that stretch. I think there's a class difference in this contest that isn't being properly reflected by the line. Take Georgia Southern (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I'm not convinced there's as much separating these two teams as indicated by the pointspread on Monday night. Los Angeles is coming off a heart-breaking loss in Seattle a week ago Thursday and I get the feeling it might have a difficult time getting up for this non-division affair with its hopes of winning the NFC West dwindling. That's not to say the Rams won't win this game but I think they'll be in tough trying to win by margin. The Falcons are playing well even if their offense did thrive against subpar opposition in their last two games. I like the fact that they're relatively fresh with this being only their third game since December 11th. I do think a lot will be pinned on the Atlanta defense in this game as Kirk Cousins figures to be under duress for much of the night on offense. The Falcons have been stout against the run in recent weeks and won't have to deal with red zone magnet Davante Adams in this game giving them a puncher's chance. This is also another green-light spot for Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson as he looks to continue to pad his stats during a tremendous campaign. Look for the Falcons to keep the Rams within arm's reach. Take Atlanta (8*).

My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The Bucks staged an 'upset' win in Chicago on Saturday but I expect their success to be short-lived, noting they haven't won consecutive games since a two-game winning streak at the end of October. This is the end of a long five-game road trip before they return home to open a two-game homestand against the Wizards on Wednesday. The Hornets are quietly playing well right now, winners of seven of their last nine games ATS and four of their last six SU at home. They've already defeated the Bucks once at home this season and I'm confident they can at the very least take them down to the wire on Monday. We'll grab the points with the home side. Take Charlotte (8*).

My selection is on Saint Peter's plus the points over Fairfield at 7 pm et on Monday.

MAAC play resumes on Monday as Saint Peter's makes the short trip to take on Fairfield in an intriguing conference affair. I'm confident the Peacocks can at the very least take the Stags down to the wire in this one so we'll grab all the points we can get. While Fairfield does own the better overall record in this matchup this season that's only a result of it playing three more games and having faced a weaker schedule than Saint Peter's by most metrics. The Peacocks play a smothering brand of defense having held three straight opponents to 50 or fewer field goal attempts and all 10 foes to 57 or fewer. The high-water mark came in a game they still won by double-digits against Fairleigh-Dickinson early in the season. On the flip side, we've seen Saint Peter's struggle at times offensively but I do think it will get its scoring opportunities against a Fairfield team that has yielded more than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last seven games. The Stags have thrived in a fast-paced offensive environment but will be hard-pressed to get out and do so against a disciplined Peacocks defense here. They're 0-3 ATS when being held to fewer than 60 field goal attempts this season. Take Saint Peter's (8*).

Monday CBB Free play. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over UT-Rio Grande Valley at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

We've cashed with UTRGV on a couple of occasions already this season but that's been in an underdog role. It's a different story on Monday as it finds itself favored at home against New Orleans. The Privateers have been idle for over two weeks since getting blown out on the road against Houston on December 13th. With ample time to fine-tune their game I expect to see them rebound on Monday. UTRGV has been off sicne December 20th, when it delivered a blowout victory over little-known CBS-Houston. It has reeled off a season-high back-to-back wins but I expect it to at the very least get taken down to the wire here. Note that while UTRGV owns the slightly better overall record this season, New Orleans has faced the considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take New Orleans.

My selection is on Southern Illinois plus the points over Murray State at 7 pm et on Monday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Southern Illinois as it resumes conference play on the road against Murray State on Monday. The Salukis have had over a week to stew over a three-game losing streak prior to the holiday break. While they own the inferior record compared to Murray State this season, they've also faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. The Racers are in uncharted territory riding a season-high six-game SU and three-game ATS winning streak. Of note, they've allowed 11 of their 13 opponents to connect on 25 or more field goals this season so the looks should be there for Southern Illinois on Monday. On the flip side, Murray State has hoisted up 57 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last 10 contests, providing a path for the underdog Salukis to keep the Racers offense in check, relatively-speaking at least. Southern Illinois has been consistent offensively, connecting on 26 or more field goals in six straight and 12 of 13 games so far this season. Take Southern Illinois (8*).