Sean Murphy

Wednesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Kansas City over Seattle at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mariners offense exploded last night to secure their 10th straight victory. We'll call for that streak to come to an end on Wednesday as Seattle sends Bryce Miller to the hill against Cole Ragans of the Royals. Ragans will be making his first big league start since June due to injury. He did look good in a rehab start at Triple-A Omaha, striking out seven batters over 3 2/3 innings of one-hit, shutout ball. I expect the Royals offense to back him up on Wednesday as they face Miller, who has allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last six starts, lasting six innings only once over that stretch. While the Mariners bats have been hot, the Royals have held their own at the plate lately as well, ranking in the top half of the majors in both weighted on base average and isolated power over the last week. Take Kansas City.

My selection is on Arizona over San Francisco at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Giants offense has gone back in the tank, ranking last in the majors in weighted on base average and 28th in isolated power over the last week. Meanwhile, Arizona sits 4th and 10th in those two categories, respectively, over the same stretch. There's little to choose between the two starting pitchers on Wednesday with Justin Verlander going for the Giants against Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks. Verlander is in better current form but has really struggled to earn victories on the road. Meanwhile, Pfaadt has pitched considerably better at home compared to on the road lately. Of note, the Giants bullpen has really struggled lately, to the tune of a 6.67 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over the last week (with a heavy workload of 29 2/3 innings). The D'Backs 'pen owns a 4.64 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in just 21 1/3 innings over the same stretch. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Minnesota at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

While Game 1 didn't go their way, it has certainly been a successful inaugural season for the expansion Valkyries. We'll grab all the points we can get as Golden State returns home for Game 2 on Wednesday. The Lynx quite simply shot the lights out in the opener of this series. They've now won back-to-back games both SU and ATS and that's worth noting as they haven't won more than two games in a row since a six-game streak in late July-early August and haven't reeled off three straight ATS victories since mid-July. The Valkyries have lost four games in a row, matching their longest losing skid of the season. The only other time they dropped four in a row they followed it up with an outright upset win as a double-digit home underdog against Las Vegas on June 7th. Take Golden State (8*).

First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over New York at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mercury picked a bad time to turn in one of their worst shooting performances of the season in Game 1 of this series, connecting on just 25-of-77 field goal attempts in a 76-69 overtime loss at home. That marks four straight losses for Phoenix. In fact, it has dropped the cash in six straight contests. All is not lost, however, as the Mercury can extend this series with a win on Wednesday. I like their chances. Note that New York didn't shoot particularly well in Game 1 and that's been an ongoing theme. The Liberty have connected on fewer than 30 field goals in regulation time in eight of their last nine games. They haven't held consecutive opponents to fewer than 30 made field goals since August. While they do ride a four-game winning streak into this contest, they haven't won consecutive games ATS since July. Take Phoenix (10*).