Sean Murphy

My selection is on Atlanta over Houston at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

This matchup was no contest last night as the Astros jumped in front early and never looked back in a blowout win. I look for the Braves to answer back on Saturday. Atlanta starter Bryce Elder has quietly turned things around in a big way lately, allowing just four earned runs in 26 1/3 innings of work over his last four outings. The Braves have won each of his last two starts by a combined 9-2 score. Hunter Brown counters for Houston. While he has ace-caliber stuff, the Astros are just 1-3 in his last four starts. I can see a scenario unfolding where they struggle to follow up last night's offensive explosion as the Braves steal this one in an underdog role. Take Atlanta (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back the Rays on Saturday as they have the starting pitching advantage with Drew Rasmussen taking the ball against Colin Rea of the Cubs. It's also worth noting that Tampa Bay ranks a respectable 14th in the majors in weighted on base average and top-10 in isolated power over the last week. The Cubs, meanwhile, sit 21st and 27th in those two categories over the same stretch. With the bullpen edge as well, Tampa Bay is well-positioned to pick up the win at Wrigley Field. Take Tampa Bay (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston College and Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Boston College was involved in a wild, high-scoring double-overtime game in East Lansing last week, ultimately falling by a 42-40 score against the Spartans. That result was somewhat misleading, at least from a totals perspective. The second quarter was a wild one with Boston College scoring three touchdowns and Michigan State contributing one. Of note, after allowing the Spartans to reach the end zone again just over two minutes into the third quarter they didn't allow another touchdown until overtime. Meanwhile, Boston College scored its final touchdown of regulation time before the end of the first half (it was held to two field goals in the second half). Stanford is 0-2 and will need to lean on its defense if it wants to avoid a third straight loss as its offense is going nowhere right now. Last week at BYU, the Cardinal could muster just a fourth quarter field goal in a 27-3 loss. In Week 0, Stanford didn't produce an offensive touchdown until nearly six minutes into the fourth quarter (its only offensive touchdown of the game in a 23-20 loss at Hawaii). Defensively, the Cardinal haven't been bad. Against Hawaii, they allowed two first half touchdowns but limited the Rainbow Warriors to just three field goals in the second half. Last week they went a stretch of 29 minutes of game time without allowing a touchdown against BYU (and gave up just two touchdowns in the entire game). Take the under (8*).

Game of the Month. My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Saturday.

The Alouettes have fallen on hard times this season, losers of five straight games both SU and ATS following a solid 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS start. We'll back them on Saturday, however, as they look to avenge an earlier 34-6 home loss against the Roughriders that sent them on their spiral. Saskatchewan is in a fairly obvious letdown spot following consecutive wins over the division rival Blue Bombers, including an 'upset' victory in Winnipeg last week. Despite their recent success SU, the Riders are actually just 1-1-1 ATS over their last three contests and 1-2-1 ATS in their last four home games. Take Montreal (10*).

SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida plus the points over LSU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't think there's any question the Gators got caught looking past South Florida last Saturday. Florida clearly thought it could simply suit up and cruise to a 2-0 record ahead of this SEC opener against LSU. That wasn't the case as the Bulls hung around and ultimately pulled off a second straight 'upset' victory to open their season, 18-16 in The Swamp. Here, we'll back the Gators as they look to regain their footing on the road against LSU. The Tigers impressed in a season-opening 17-10 road win over Clemson but 'only' defeated Louisiana Tech by 16 points in their home opener last week. If there's one thing we know about Brian Kelly's Tigers it's that they're inconsistent. They've been positively dominant defensively through two weeks but I expect Florida to break through offensively in this contest. With that being said, we're talking about a game with the total set in the mid-40's. I'm comfortable grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Gators in a game that figures to go down to the wire. Note that the last three meetings in this series have been decided by double-digits. The last time we saw a streak of that nature (meetings decided by more than a touchdown) was 2011-2013 and prior to that 1998-2003. In other words, (relatively) close games have been the norm in this series. Take Florida (10*).

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on West Virginia plus the points over Pittsburgh at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won with Pittsburgh last week as it rolled past MAC upstart Central Michigan. We'll go the other way this week, however, as the Panthers head to Morgantown to take on West Virginia in the latest instalment of the Backyard Brawl.

I like the way this spot sets up for the Mountaineers as they come in with bad intentions after an 'upset' road loss against another MAC squad in Ohio last Saturday. The Bobcats are a better team than most give them credit for and that Mountaineers defeat shouldn't have come as much of a surprise (they were only favored by 3.5 points after all). With a tough road date against Kansas on deck, this game is incredibly important for West Virginia. That's not to say it's not important for Pitt as well but I think this spread will prove too lofty. Take West Virginia.

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Buffalo at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Kent State was projected to be the MAC's worst team at the onset of the season and nothing has really changed as the Golden Flashes have played just one game - a 62-14 rout at the hands of Texas Tech on the road last week. I do like the Golden Flashes chances of offering some resistance against Buffalo in their MAC opener on Saturday, however. This is a 'revenge' game for Kent State after it wrapped up its 0-12 free-fall of a 2024 season with a 43-7 loss at Buffalo last November. There's really nowhere for the Golden Flashes to go but up as a program in 2025 and I look for them to make a statement by putting forth a competitive effort against the Bulls on Saturday. Buffalo checks in 1-1, as expected, after losing but covering in its opener at Minnesota and then routing FCS opponent St. Francis (PA) 45-6 at home last Saturday. I am fairly high on the Bulls this year (we won with them in that season-opening ATS victory at Minnesota) but prefer backing them in an underdog role. I simply feel they're laying too many points against a Kent State squad that still has a glimmer of hope at this early stage of the season. Take Kent State (10*).

My selection is on Miami minus the points over South Florida at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

It's a shame they'll only likely have him for one season, but the Hurricanes seem to have found their quarterback in Carson Beck. Miami is off to a 2-0 start to the campaign but failed to cover the spread in its 45-3 rout of FCS opponent Bethune-Cookman last week. Saturday's opponent is no pushover as South Florida has shaken up the college football landscape with consecutive 'upset' wins over Boise State at home and Florida on the road. The Bulls were thought to be an improved team this season but no one could have expected to come roaring out of the gates the way they have. The problem here is that they face a Miami squad that appears to be in midseason form and comes off that glorified scrimmage against an FCS opponent last week. While it's only Week 3 you do have to wonder how much South Florida has in the tank both physically and emotionally and with the schedule about to lighten up beginning next week with a home date against Charlotte, the Bulls can be excused if they fall well short in this tough spot. Take Miami (8*).

My selection is on Arizona State minus the points over Texas State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Arizona State is coming off a stunning 'upset' loss as a near-touchdown favorite at Mississippi State last Saturday. That dropped the Sun Devils to 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS on the season. I'm confident we'll see them bounce back on Saturday as they return home to host Texas State. The Bobcats are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS including an 'upset' victory on the road against Texas-San Antonio last week. Texas State has impressively produced 95 points through two contests but let's keep things in perspective as Eastern Michigan and UTSA isn't on the same plane as Arizona State defensively. The Sun Devils are projected to be one of the Big 12's best teams and absolutely everything is still on the table despite last week's disappointing loss. This game has to serve as a jumping off point for ASU before it heads to Waco to challenge Baylor in its Big 12 opener next week. Keeping in mind, the Bobcats gave the Sun Devils a serious run, at home mind you, last year, I expect them to have the home side's full attention here. Take Arizona State (8*).