Sean Murphy

My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

With this being the first meeting between these teams not only this season but ever, I believe the oddsmakers are having a difficult time setting an accurate total. The Dream check in off three straight 'over' results as their defense has let them down for the most part. This is a nice bounce back spot, however, as while Golden State has been better than expected this season, it remains one of the league's weaker offensive teams. The Valkyries have eclipsed 30 made field goals just once in their last five games. That came in a contest that still stayed 'under' the total against Seattle. The 'under' is 6-1-1 in the Valkyries last eight games overall. Defensively, Golden State has been terrific. You would have to go back 11 games to find the last time it allowed an opponent to connect on 30 or more field goals - that coming way back on June 5th in Phoenix. Atlanta enters riding a three-game 'over' streak, as mentioned earlier, but that matches its longest such streak this season. The last time it posted three straight 'over' results, it's next game reached just 123 total points against Dallas. Expect a defensive tone in Monday's contest. Take the under (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The days of Yu Darvish dominating big league lineups on a consistent basis are probably over as he makes his 2025 debut after starting the campaign on the I.L. He logged a 4.03 FIP and 1.30 WHIP in 2023 before posting a 4.08 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in an injury-shortened 2024 season. Following one rehab start he'll make his return on Monday and he draws a tough opponent in the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona is coming off a loss on Sunday and a series defeat against Kansas City. With that being said, the D'Backs continue to perform reasonably well at the plate, ranking 12th in the majors in weighted on base average and seventh in isolated power over the last week. That's a far cry from the Padres, who sit 25th and 29th, respectively, in those two categories over the same stretch. Zac Gallen gets the start for Arizona. He's coming off arguably his best start of the season as he allowed just one earned run over seven innings, striking out 10 along the way, in an 8-2 win over the Giants. Arizona has won three of his last four outings, providing him plenty of run support. Finally, we'll note that the D'Backs bullpen has held up well lately, logging a 1.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the last week. While the Padres 'pen has performed well also, I think the D'Backs can get to Darvish and make a lead stand up in this one. Take Arizona (10*).

Monday MLB Free play. My selection is on Miami over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

We'll back the Marlins on Monday as they continue to play well, even off a losing series against the Brewers. Miami is 11-4 over its last 15 games and will take on a Reds club that put up a fight but lost two of three games in Philadelphia over the weekend. I'll give the Marlins the edge on the mound on Monday, even if it doesn't look like it at first glance. Janson Junk takes the ball for Miami. He's pitched reasonably well, allowing two earned runs or less in three of his last four starts. The Marlins won three of those four contests with the lone loss coming by a single run against Minnesota last time out (Junk allowed just two earned runs in six innings). Reds starter Brady Singer owns a 4.17 FIP and 1.34 WHIP in 17 starts this season and Cincinnati has dropped each of his last three trips to the hill. You would have to go back three starts to find the last time Singer lasted beyond the fifth innings. Also note that the Marlins bullpen has posted a sparkling 1.47 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over the last week while the Reds relief corps has logged a 4.85 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the same stretch. With the offenses a virtual wash in terms of recent form, we'll back the Marlins at a generous price here. Take Miami.