Sean Murphy

Tuesday MLB Free play. My selection is on San Diego over Chicago at 3:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Cubs have the name recognition and the postseason aura of Wrigley Field working in their favor, but that often comes with a tax at the betting window. I believe that has left us with some value on the visiting Padres in this series opener. Cubs starter Matthew Boyd started the season strong but faded late, posting uneven performances through August and September. That’s a concerning trend heading into a playoff spot where mistakes are magnified.

The Padres, meanwhile, closed the regular season with a timely surge at the plate, ranking sixth in MLB in weighted on-base average and 11th in isolated power over the final week. While the Cubs were even hotter offensively in that same stretch, I give San Diego’s pitching staff the edge in this matchup. Their bullpen rounded into form down the stretch, locking in during critical late-season games and giving them a strong bridge to the finish line.

Chicago’s lineup can do damage, but I like the Padres’ balance between a surging offense and trustworthy relief arms to neutralize that advantage. With a favorable price on the road side, the opportunity is there to back San Diego to draw first blood in the series.

Take San Diego.

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My selection is on the under between Detroit and Cleveland at 1:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We get a marquee pitching matchup to open this set with Tarik Skubal toeing the rubber for the Tigers and Gavin Williams countering for the Guardians. Skubal’s reputation as one of the premier arms in baseball is well established, but Williams has quietly turned heads as well, especially down the stretch. Cleveland went 5-0 in his last five starts, during which he allowed only six earned runs across 31 innings, showing poise and consistency in pressure spots.

Neither offense inspires much confidence right now, with both clubs ranking in the lower third of MLB in key metrics like weighted on-base average and isolated power. That makes it difficult to envision either side suddenly breaking out against this level of pitching. Adding to that, the bullpens are both in excellent recent form. Detroit’s relievers have worked to a 2.11 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the last week, while Cleveland’s relief corps has been even sharper, sporting a 1.88 ERA and 0.83 WHIP during the same span.

With two terrific starters leading the way, offenses that have struggled to string together quality at-bats, and reliable bullpens waiting in support, the conditions are set for a low-scoring game.

Take the under.

Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the over between Indiana and Las Vegas at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday.

This winner-take-all matchup for a trip to the WNBA Finals should deliver another uptempo contest after the Fever extended the series with their high-scoring Game 4 victory. Indiana finally broke through offensively on Sunday, knocking down shots at a steady clip and putting up 90 points despite a relatively modest number of attempts. That shows how efficient the Fever can be when their guards and wings are hitting jumpers, and it gives them a repeatable formula to stay in this one.

The Aces, meanwhile, continue to bring their usual offensive consistency. They’ve been good for 33 or more made field goals in three straight and six of their last nine games, and rarely slump for long stretches at home. In this type of elimination setting, it’s difficult to envision Las Vegas tightening up offensively; if anything, they’ll look to set the tone early and force Indiana to match pace.

With Las Vegas laying a big number, game script suggests the Aces defense may soften once they build a cushion, giving Indiana additional opportunities to keep scoring late. That combination should push this one over the posted total.

Take the over between Indiana and Las Vegas.