Sean Murphy

My selection is on Los Angeles over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The case could certainly be made for the Angels to be priced north of -200 in this contest and we may very well see the price get there by the time first pitch rolls around.

Shohei Ohtani will get the start for the Angels. While he hasn't received the same amount of hype as he did a year ago when he did a little more with the bat, he's having another terrific campaign on the mound, posting Cy Young Award-caliber numbers - a 2.42 FIP and a 1.04 WHIP while allowing just 3.00 runs per nine innings.

Behind Ohtani is an Angels bullpen that has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.73 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention a solid 3.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP away from home this season.

James Kaprielian will counter for Oakland. He's logged a disappointing 5.20 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while giving up north of 4.4 runs per nine innings this season.

While the A's bullpen hasn't been bad lately, it certainly hasn't posted the same type of numbers as that of the Angels with a 4.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven contests. At home this season, Oakland relievers have combined to record a 4.64 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with just 11 saves converted and six blown. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on St. Louis over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

While the Cardinals could certainly be ripe for a letdown off a sweep of the Yankees over the weekend, I believe their advantages on the mound are too strong to ignore in this particular matchup.

Miles Mikolas will take the ball for St. Louis. He checks in with a 3.68 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.2 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Mikolas is a Cards bullpen that has posted a collective 1.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the last seven games.

Meanwhile, the Rockies will turn to Ryan Feltner, who continues to labor through the 2022 season. He sports a 4.51 FIP and 1.45 WHIP while giving up 5.98 runs per nine innings. Perhaps even more problematic is the Rockies bullpen, which has logged an 8.15 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take St. Louis (8*).

Tuesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Cleveland -1.5 runs over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

This one sets up well for the Guardians as they send their ace Shane Bieber to the hill against Tyler Alexander of the Tigers.

Bieber is quietly having another fine campaign having recorded a 2.96 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while yielding just north of 3.6 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a Guardians bullpen that has excelled overall this season but particularly of late, logging a 2.49 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games.

Alexander has been good but certainly not great for the Tigers. He owns a 4.22 FIP and 1.23 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.7 runs per nine frames this season. The bigger issue might be the Tigers overworked bullpen which has shown signs of wearing down lately, posting a collective 7.20 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Cleveland -1.5 runs.

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

While I realize the Reds don't have a wealth of starting pitching talent that's ready for the big league level right now, it's still hard to believe that they continue to trot out veteran left-hander Mike Minor every five days.

To say that Minor has struggled this season would be an understatement. He checks in sporting a 6.57 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while yielding north of 6.8 runs per nine innings. We can no longer blame it on a small sample size either as he's logged 11 starts covering a span of 56 2/3 innings.

The Mets will counter with Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday. He's pitched well lately, lowering his FIP to 3.44 and his WHIP to 1.28 and has given up just north of 3.8 runs per nine innings this season. Carrasco allows 1.0 fewer hits, 1.6 fewer walks and perhaps most importantly 1.6 fewer home runs per nine innings when compared to Minor this season.

The reason we're laying the half-run with the Mets in the first five innings only again tonight (we won with the same play last night) is the fact that their bullpen has been unsteady lately, recording a collective 5.48 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games. Over that same stretch, the Reds 'pen has posted a terrific 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

MLB A.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

This one sets up exceptionally well as a bounce-back spot for the Blue Jays after last night's 7-4 loss here at Camden Yards.

Alek Manoah will take the ball for Toronto. He's having a fine sophomore campaign having posted a 3.42 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while yielding just 2.8 runs per nine innings. He hasn't had his best stuff over his last couple of outings, but last time out that was still enough to guide the Jays to a 9-3 victory in Minnesota. The last time Manoah faced the Orioles he tossed six shutout innings back on June 13th. Prior to that he gave up just one earned run over seven frames against them last October.

Kyle Bradish will counter for Baltimore. While the O's have had many young arms rise to the occasion this season, Bradish hasn't been one of them. He owns an ugly 5.15 FIP and 1.65 WHIP while giving up a whopping 6.71 runs per nine innings. The Jays saw him in June and tagged him for five earned runs on nine hits over just 4 1/3 innings.

The bullpens are virtually a wash in this game so we'll confidently back the Jays based on their considerable starting pitching advantage. Take Toronto (10*).

My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Miami and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

I'm anticipating a low-scoring start to this N.L. East showdown on Tuesday as the Marlins send an underrated Braxton Garrett to the hill against Zack Wheeler of the Phillies.

Garrett enters Tuesday's start having lowered his FIP to 3.04 and his WHIP to 1.16, yielding just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings this season. He's struck out 11 batters twice in his last four starts, racking up 37 K's over his last four outings, covering a span of 22 2/3 innings.

Wheeler has put up Cy Young Award-caliber numbers for the Phillies again this season, recording a 2.85 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing under 3.0 runs per nine innings. He's worked exactly seven innings and given up two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts.

The problem with playing the full game 'under' here isn't either starter, it's the bullpens. Miami's relief corps has already blown 13 saves away from home this season while Philadelphia's 'pen checks in with a 7.23 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the first five innings under (8*).