Sean Murphy

NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

These two teams were involved in a sleepy 104-86 affair in favor of the Clippers back on Easter Sunday but I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's rematch. The Lakers are coming off a low-scoring victory over the Nuggets on Monday night. It's worth noting that only once over their last 15 games have we seen the Lakers post consecutive 'under' results. With Anthony Davis back on the court there's reason to believe they can put up more of a fight against the Clippers than we saw from them in their last meeting back on April. The Clippers haven't looked overly motivated in the last couple of weeks, dropping three of their last four games SU and five in a row ATS. Note that the Clips average a whopping 124.3 points per game after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228 points. I certainly expect to see the Clippers get up for this matchup and I'm confident they can break out of their offensive funk, noting that they average 116.4 points per game on 49.1% shooting here at home this season. Defensively, the Clippers are an elite team but haven't been quite as locked in lately, allowing three of their last four opponents to shoot 47.3% or better from the field. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Clippers at home coming off a win over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.4 points. While the 'under' is 20-11 in Lakers road games this season (I realize calling this a 'road' game is a stretch) those contests have actually totaled an average of 212.9 points - just north of the number we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these lineups have gotten a little healthier this week with the D'Backs welcoming back regular clean-up hitter Christian Walker and the Marlins getting back Brian Anderson. It's been a lopsided series so far with the Marlins doing most of the damage offensively. I look for both teams to take part on Thursday, however, as this total should prove too low. Madison Bumgarner has turned back the clock over his last few starts, most notably tossing a seven-inning no-hitter against the Braves two starts back. I question whether he can keep it up though. Note that the Marlins have hit considerably better against left-handed starters this season (.252 as a team), averaging 4.9 runs per game. Meanwhile, the D'Backs will face right-hander Pablo Lopez, noting that they're averaging 5.2 runs per contest against righty starters this season. Concerning for the Snakes here is their awful bullpen, which entered last night's action having posted a 5.30 ERA on the season, with that number ballooning to 8.58 over their last seven games. The Marlins 'pen has been far better but a 4.14 home ERA (entering last night's game) is nothing to write home about. This has been a reasonably high-scoring series in recent years with the 'over' going 5-2-2 in nine previous meetings over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday.

We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Blue Jays prevailed by a 9-4 score to earn their first victory in three tries in this series. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Thursday as Jays ace Hyun-Jin Ryu returns to the hill following a stint on the injured list to face A's veteran Mike Fiers. All indications are that Ryu is good to go after spending the minimum 10 days on the I.L. While the A's do check in sporting a 9-3 record against left-handed starters this season, Ryu will be the best they've faced and it's worth noting that they've actually hit just .218 against southpaw starters. Behind Ryu is a Jays bullpen that has been lights out this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Mike Fiers was a little shaky in his season debut for the A's but battled hard and managed to last six innings, allowing three earned runs on six hits while striking out three and walking two. I would expect Fiers to do a good job of eating some innings again here today, setting the table for an A's bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a 1.23 ERA over the last seven games. Take the under (10*).

Thursday MLB Free play. My selection is on Toronto over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday.

I really like the Jays advantage with ace Hyun-Jin Ryu returning to the mound against the A's lineup on Thursday afternoon. All indications are that Ryu is good to go here after spending the minimum 10 days on the injured list with a glute strain. Before going on the shelf, Ryu was his usual dominant self, recording a 28.0% hard-hit ball percentage through 27 2/3 innings of work. While the A's have gone 9-3 against left-handed starters this season, they've actually his just .218 against them. Behind Ryu is one of the league's best bullpens so far this season, with the Jays entering last night's action having recorded a 2.46 ERA out of the 'pen. Mike Fiers will counter for Oakland. He owns a 3-5 career team record against the Jays, last facing them twice in 2019 when he went winless, allowing eight earned runs in 10 1/3 innings. Fiers made his first start of the 2021 season last week against Baltimore, serving up a pair of home runs and allowing three earned runs over six innings of work. Fiers has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park in recent years and now owns a career 3.8% home run percentage - nearly a full percentage point higher than the MLB average. Take Toronto (8*).

Sean went 3-2 in NHL action last night (4-2 including free) and is now riding a 77-43 (+$2,718) NHL run! He has TWO big ticket totals on tap Thursday night; get them now or better yet, pick up a weekly or monthly subscription package and get access to ALL of Murph's winners in ALL sports every day for one all-inclusive price!

My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Islanders are coming off consecutive stunning losses against the lowly Sabres in Buffalo but find themselves well-positioned to bounce back at home on Thursday night. While my first look would generally be to the 'under' with New York coming off consecutive losses, here I'll go the other way and call for a relatively high-scoring affair against the Devils. Note that New York is averaging a whopping 5.1 goals per game when playing at home after losing two of its last three games this season. That situation has come up seven times and has resulted in an average total of 6.8 goals. Keep in mind, the Isles rested their top gun Mat Barzal two nights ago in Buffalo but I would expect him to be back in the lineup tonight. He is of course the team's leading point scorer by a longshot this season. The Devils have been a much higher-scoring team on the road this season with the 'over' going 15-9-1 with those games averaging 6.4 total goals. Note that New Jersey is averaging 3.4 goals per game when heading on the road following two or more consecutive home games this season. The Devils have been scoring with some consistency of late, putting up three goals or more in eight of their last 11 games and four or more in four of their last five. They've had to play a more wide-open style with their young stud defenseman Ty Smith sidelined. He re-aggravated an injury on Monday and could be shut down for the remainder of the season. While a key offensive contributor as well, Smith has been steadying force in the defensive zone for the Devils this season. Take the over (10*).

Thursday NHL Free play. My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Thursday.

We missed with the Canucks on the puck-line two nights ago in Vancouver as they dropped a second straight game by multiple goals against the Oilers. Now with the scene shifting to Edmonton on Thursday night, I'll go back to the well with Vancouver at an even more favorable price. Note that Vancouver checks in 13-6 the last 19 times it has come off a home loss by three goals or more, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Oilers are just 2-9 the last 11 times they've come off consecutive victories by two or more goals, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. It's also worth noting that the Oilers average just 2.5 goals per game when coming off a road win by two goals or more this season. They've been outscored by 0.1 goal on average when in that situation. Edmonton does have a three-game winning streak over the Canucks to its credit this season, but it didn't win all three of those games by more than a goal. Note that Vancouver has held its own in Edmonton in recent years, splitting the last six meetings. At this late stage of the season with the playoffs no longer in the cards, I do expect to see the Canucks show some pride during this two-game set in Edmonton. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (8*).

Sean went 3-2 in NHL action last night (4-2 including free) and is now riding a 77-43 (+$2,718) NHL run! He has TWO big ticket totals on tap Thursday night; get them now or better yet, pick up a weekly or monthly subscription package and get access to ALL of Murph's winners in ALL sports every day for one all-inclusive price!

NHL East Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Rangers are coming off consecutive emotional losses against the Capitals and I really question how much they have left in the tank for this one, playing their third game in four nights and the second of back-to-backs. The Bruins will be looking to tighten things up after blowing a third period lead in an eventual 4-3 loss to the Devils last time out. Note that the B's have been stout defensively here at home this season, allowing just 2.5 goals per game. Already in a foul mood following the loss in New Jersey, Boston will also be seeking revenge after dropping its last matchup with the Rangers by a 4-0 score here on home ice back on March 13th. Note that the 'under' has cashed in eight of the last 12 meetings overall and four of the last five here at TD Garden. The Rangers were completely distracted by the Tom Wilson fiasco over the last two games, allowing a whopping 10 goals in consecutive losses to the Caps. Note that prior to those two contests, New York had held 11 of its last 13 opponents to three goals or less. Offensively, the Rangers will without question missing Artemi Panarin - keeping in mind, this is a team that has already been held to three goals or less in five straight games, averaging just 1.6 goals per game over that stretch. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Rangers coming off four or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 3.7 goals. We have seen the Rangers tighten things up off a home loss this season, allowing an average of just 2.1 goals. Take the under (10*).

MLB Getaway Day Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Phillies jumped ahead 5-0 in the first inning last night and held on for a 5-4 victory in a game they probably shouldn't have won. That was Philadelphia's third straight win to open this series but I like the Brewers to salvage the series finale on Thursday afternoon. Brandon Woodruff will be responsible for trying to turn the tide for the Brew Crew here and he should be up to the challenge against a Phillies club he's faced three times over the course of his career, giving up just one earned run on three hits over 18 innings of work. Of course, Woodruff has been terrific this season and checks in sporting an 18-4 team record in the first half of the season over the last two seasons, with the Brewers outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs. By contrast, Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has posted a 10-22 team record in the first half over the course of his career, with his teams outscored by an average margin of 1.5 runs. While the Brewers have a slight edge in terms of starters here, they also own a more considerable edge in the bullpen, even if it hasn't gone their way in this series to date. Entering last night's action, the Milwaukee bullpen had posted a 3.00 ERA over the last seven games. By contrast, the Phillies 'pen entered last night's contest having recorded a collective 5.09 ERA over its last seven games. While it did get the job done last night, it wasn't without major difficulty as the Brewers threatened virtually every inning. Take Milwaukee (10*).

NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

Carolina has cruised to consecutive wins over the Blackhawks with both games going 'over' the total. Here on Thursday, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts with a lower-scoring affair. Note that we've seen the Canes suffer a bit of a lull in similar situations, having averaged just 2.4 goals per game when coming off consecutive victories by two goals or more over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of just 5.2 goals on the last 16 occasions it has come up. Note that the Blackhawks are averaging just 2.4 goals per game on the road this season and have been fortunate to score five goals in the first two games of this three-game set, noting that the Canes have been incredibly stout defensively at home this season, allowing only 2.1 goals per contest. I'm not convinced we see a real high-energy game here from either team as both teams wind down the regular season - the Blackhawks looking forward to hitting the golf course and the Canes preparing for what they hope will be a deep playoff run. We've seen similar situations this season where two teams play one another three times or more in the same location and by the end of the stretch, the intensity tends to wane. I expect a similar story to unfold in a potentially low-event contest on Thursday in Raleigh. Take the under (10*).