Sean Murphy

Sunday NHL Free play. My selection is on Florida over Toronto at 7:30 pm ET on Sunday.

Despite trailing 2-1 in the series, the Panthers have shown plenty of life, especially in their Game 3 comeback effort on Friday. After falling behind 2-0 early, Florida regrouped and controlled most of the action the rest of the way, ultimately winning the game on a Brad Marchand overtime goal. That effort is more reflective of the team’s capabilities than what we had seen previously in this series, and I expect them to carry that momentum into Sunday’s crucial Game 4.

The Panthers have been consistently strong at home all season, going 28-13-2 while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals per game. While the Leafs hung tough in Game 3, they were outplayed in terms of shot attempts and quality scoring chances once Florida found its footing.

Now working with a shorter price, we’re getting a strong opportunity to back the home side in what shapes up as a critical affair. Expect a more complete 60-minute performance from Florida as it evens the series before heading back to Toronto.

Take Florida. Projected score: Panthers 4, Maple Leafs 3.

My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Denver at 3:30 pm ET on Sunday.

While the Nuggets escaped with an overtime win in Game 3, it wasn’t a dominant performance and came despite another slow offensive showing. Denver managed only 39 made field goals on just 85 attempts—still well below what you’d expect from a team in control of a playoff game. That’s now three consecutive games in this series where the Nuggets have been held under 43 made field goals, highlighting the defensive intensity Oklahoma City continues to bring.

For the Thunder, Game 3 was more about missed opportunities than a failure of execution. They generated 104 field goal attempts—compared to Denver’s 85—but converted only 40, one of their worst shooting performances of the season. That’s not a trend we expect to continue, especially given the consistent shot volume and the fact that Oklahoma City has responded well to adversity all season.

This is a bounce-back spot for a young, hungry Thunder squad that’s shown it can dictate pace and volume—two critical playoff metrics. Look for them to bounce back strongly and even the series on the road.

Take Oklahoma City. Projected score: Thunder 112, Nuggets 101.

My selection is on Kansas City over Boston at 2:10 pm ET on Sunday.

The Red Sox erupted offensively in Saturday’s lopsided win, but the Royals are well-positioned to bounce back in the series finale behind veteran right-hander Seth Lugo. While Lugo may not be dominating headlines like last season when he finished second in the AL Cy Young voting, he’s been extremely effective of late, allowing just three earned runs combined over his last three starts—all Royals victories.

Kansas City also gets a favorable pitching matchup against Boston’s Lucas Giolito, who continues to struggle to find consistency after bouncing between teams. In his first two starts this season, Giolito has been erratic, posting a troubling 4.88 FIP and 1.86 WHIP. His inability to limit baserunners is particularly concerning against a Royals team that’s shown some ability to manufacture runs even without the long ball.

This is a good spot to buy low on Kansas City after a blowout loss. Look for the Royals to lean on the steadier arm and get back in the win column.

Take Kansas City. Projected score: Royals 5, Red Sox 4.