Stephen Nover

I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
A's vs Indians	Indians -122	Free	5-3	Loss	-122	Show
The A's have won four in a row. But the pitching matchup, price and the way the Indians have started to swing the bats put me on Cleveland. A's starter Chris Bassitt has a 1.93 ERA. He's not nearly that good. The 30-year-old is due for a regression. The Indians' offense began the year in hibernation. However, the Indians have shown life lately averaging 8.1 runs in their last five games if you discount a 5-1 loss to the Orioles and Dylan Bundy. Trevor Bauer is off a terrible start. Bauer, though, is an elite pitcher. I give him a huge edge - not reflected in this short lay price - over Bassitt. Bauer may not have to deal with slugger Khris Davis either. Davis is dealing with a hip injury. Cleveland has won 69 percent of Bauer's past 26 home starts. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is a blazing 22-10-2 on his last 34 premium/free baseball plays and is on 71 percent NBA run. Stephen has a huge Tuesday package going with his top baseball sides play, his NBA Game of the Week and Stanley Cup Puck Line Game of the Month.)
Reds vs Brewers	Brewers -125	Premium	3-0	Loss	-125	Show
The Reds have lost 40 of their past 57 road games, including going 9-15 away from home this season. They are 4-7 versus southpaws this season and facing Brewers southpaw Gio Gonzalez at Miller Park. The Brewers have won 67 percent of their home games this year going 16-8. Gonzalez is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in four starts this season. Milwaukee is 9-2 in his last 11 starts going back to last season. Gonzalez is 6-3 career-wise versus the Reds with a 2.75 ERA in 12 starts. The Reds could be without Yasiel Puig, who suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday. Reds starter Sonny Gray is 0-4 with a 4.30 ERA. Gray has yet to reach the seventh inning this season and is not a good fit pitching at homer-friendly Miller Park.
Sharks vs Blues	Blues -1½ +181	Top Premium	1-5	Win	181	Show
Injuries and the luck factor turning against them leave the Sharks dead in the water for this Game 6 road matchup against the Blues. I don't see San Jose staying alive by beating St. Louis here. Even if the Sharks are hanging in trailing by just one goal there is the strong possibility of an empty net goal taking place since San Jose is in must-win mode down 3-2 in the series. The Blues' superior defense and goaltending with star rookie Jordan Binnington has come alive. The Blues have taken control of the series winning the past two games holding the Sharks to just one goal during this span. The Sharks are 3-7 in their past 10 road contests. San Jose has been the luckiest team in the playoffs. But that luck has run out. The Blues buried the Sharks, 5-0, at San Jose in Game 5. The Sharks have gotten hit hard by injuries with key players captain Joe Pavelski, two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson and Tomas Hertl, their second-leading goal scorer next to Pavelski, all missing significant time in Sunday's Game 5 defeat. Jaden Schwartz has been a monster for the Blues scoring 12 goals during the postseason. Vladimir Tarasenko is stepping up now, too, producing at least one point in five consecutive games.
Bucks vs Raptors	Bucks -135	Top Premium	102-120	Loss	-135	Show
The Bucks didn't play well in Game 3. The result was a 118-112 double overtime road loss to the Raptors. Expect the Bucks to play much in this Game 4. The oddsmaker expects that. The difference is reflected in Milwaukee opening as a road favorite instead of an underdog as they did in Game 3. The oddsmaker has it right. The Bucks are the side I want going for me. Milwaukee has by far the better depth. This is huge because the Raptors are gassed especially Kawhi Leonard, who is playing hurt. The Raptors have no shot if Leonard doesn't produce a monster game. The Bucks have won and covered 10 of their 12 playoff games. It's not a big surprise considering they had the best SU and ATS mark during the regular season, too. Milwaukee also has been great in revenge spots - 12-1 SU, 10-2-1 ATS off a loss.

PICKS IN PROGRESS

May 22 '19, 1:10 PM

Play Type: Premium Pick

MLB | Reds vs Brewers

Play on: UNDER 8 -114

Game Analysis

The marquee pitching matchup of the day pits Max Scherzer against Jacob deGrom. But based on how well they have pitched this season, Luis Castillo versus Zach Davies isn't far behind those two superstars. Castillo has a 1.90 ERA. The Under has cashed in his last seven road starts. Davies has a 1.54 ERA. The Under is 4-0 during his last four home starts. That's a combined 11-0 Under mark in this situation from the two starters. Both bullpens are above average, too. The Brewers' offense is much less potent without reigning NL MLVP Christian Yelich, who didn't play on Tuesday due to back spasms. The Reds' lineup could really use Yasiel Puig, who has been out with a shouder injury.

Pick Released on May 22 at 08:44 am

SERVICE BIO

Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.

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Stephen Nover

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