T.M. Selection: Virginia Tech (FREE PLAY)

It’s the No. 13 seed Saint Louis Billikens vs. the No. 4 seed Virginia Tech Hokies on Friday night and in my opinion, all signs point to a blowout victory for the favorite here. Saint Louis had a poor regular season, but it put it all together during the Conference Tournament, eventually winning the title 55-53 over Saint Bonaventure, exacting revenge from a loss in its regular season finale to the Bonnies. VT finished No. 4 in the ACC with a 12-6 record and had impressive non-conference victories over the likes of Purdue and Washington. I have a hard time seeing Saint Louis keeping pace offensively today, as the Billikens average just 102.6 points per 100 possessions. Saint Louis allows only 96.3 points per 100 possessions, but that unit is going to be tested by the Hokies’ high-flying offense which averages 118.4 points per 100 possessions, and with a suffocating defense which concedes only 94.0 points per 100 possessions. I’m banking on the Billikens coming back down to Earth here after their unlikely Conference Tournament title victory. Consider Virginia Tech on Friday night.

T.M. Prediction: 70-56 Hokies.

T.M. Selection: Spurs/Rockets over (10* TOTAL OF YEAR)

I’m expecting a wide-open “shootout” between these heated Western Conference rivals. The Spurs are looking to get back on track after their nine-game win streak was snapped in a lacklustre effort at home to the Heat. The Rockets are also looking to atone for a poor setback on the road to Memphis. After extended streaks, each of these top Western Conference foes had a letdown last time out, setting up what I believe the perfect spot to pull the trigger on the “over” here. Note as well that the Spurs have seen the total go over the number in five of their last six when playing with double revenge vs. an opponent, while Houston has seen the total fly over in 21 of its last 31 at home. This number is a little low, play the over.

T.M. Prediction: 120-116 Houston.

T.M. Selection: VCU (10* GAME OF WEEK)

UCF is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2005. The Knights lost their final two games of the year. UCF averages only 72.1 PPG, but makes up for it on the other end by allowing only 64.3. VCU returns after a one-year absence. The Rams had a 12 game win streak snapped by Rhode Island in the A-10 Tournament. The Rams average only 71.4 PPG, but like their counterparts today, they make up for it on the other end by conceding only 61.6 PPG. Note as well that VCU is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 tournament games and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while UCF is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven following an ATS loss.  

T.M. Prediction: 67-60 Rams.

T.M. Selection: Gardner Webb (8*)

Gardner Webb beat Big South regular-season Champion Radford in the Big South tournament title game and it comes into this one on top form having won five straight. Gardner Webb averages 78.3 PPG and it allows just 70.5 (led by David Efianayi with 18.4 points and 3.7 boards per game.) Virginia was upset by FSU in the ACC tournament, snapping a nine-game win streak. The Cavs average only 71.8 PPG, while holding the opposition to just 55.1. Note though that Gardner Webb is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as an underdog, while Virginia is 0-2 ATS already this season when playing with five or six days rest. I’m grabbing the points.

T.M. Prediction: 69-62 Cavs.

T.M. Selection: Oklahoma (8*)

The Sooners stumbled down the stretch, going just 2-3 in their final five games, but I think they’ll bounce back here after going 12-2 during the non-conference portion of their schedule. Oklahoma averages 71.2 PPG, while allowing 68.2. The Rebels are just 1-4 in their last five. Ole Miss averages 75.4 PPG and it allows 70.4. Note that Oklahoma was also 11-1 ATS this year in non-conference action, while Ole Miss is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite. Grab the points.

T.M. Prediction: 74-68 Sooners.

T.M. Selection: Iowa (8*)

Iowa stumbled down the stretch of the regular season and it would eventually fall to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. The Hawkeyes play in the tougher Conference and clearly they’ll have their hands full with Cincinnati, which just won the AAC Conference Tournament. These teams are very evenly matched though, as Iowa averages 78.3 PPG. The Bearcats have the advantage on the defensive end, but I think the unit will be stretched here by this Iowa team with something to prove here. Iowa is still 4-1 ATS in neutral court games this year and 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while Cincinnati is just 5-7 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less in its previous contest.

T.M. Prediction: 70-67 Iowa.