Will Rogers

After losing against the Blue Jackets in overtime, today's game vs the Sabres is an absolute must win.  The Isles aren't defending as well as they usually do, but are scoring more prolifically.  There is a good chance that star goalie Sorokin will not be in the net.  He gave up five goals on Friday, and will likely be rested for the rarely-used and uneven Varlamov.  The Sabres area good road team but gave been giving up far too many goals, and their potent offense has been unable to catch up.  they are off a win, managing five goals against NJ.  

The over has figured in five straight Buffalo matches and in six of eight Islanders games. I am not going to buck this trend. Buffalo's defensive record is not a good bet for a low total, and New York may have their hands full controlling the Sabres  offense and PK.  Take the Isles and Sabres to go over again today. 

Denver returns home for a huge showdown with Milwaukee Saturday night. These are the top teams in each conference, Milwaukee is 52-30 and has a 2.5-game edge in the East while Denver 49-24 with a three-game edge in the West.

The Nuggets have had two days off. They finished their road trip 3-2 SU/ATS after winning at Brooklyn and Washington. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is in the second night of a back to back after destroying Utah last night on the road. 

You can throw out the 107-99 win Milwaukee had against Denver back in January. The Nuggets rested most of their key guys in that game. 

Denver is 30-6 SU at home and outscoring teams here by about 10.5 PPG. 

I know it’s scary to fade a Bucks team that is 24-3 SU its last 27 games and 9-1 SU/9-0-1 ATS in the second night of a back to back. But playing at altitude without rest is a tough proposition, even if starters were able to rest in the 4Q last night. 10*

Fireworks are expected here between UConn and Gonzaga, which some may view as a “de facto National Title Game” the way this bracket has broken. One could certainly make an argument that these are the two best teams still standing.

UConn has shot the lights out the last two games (54% and 57%) and it’s not like Gonzaga is known for its defense. Yet we just saw Gonzaga’s last opponent fail to make a basket for an 11 minute stretch in the second half. Not saying that will happen again here (it won’t) but UConn is due to cool off offensively.

On the flip side, Gonzaga has been down double digits each of the last two games. I don’t think Drew Timme has the kind of game he had vs. UCLA.

Second chance points were also huge for the Zags vs. the Bruins. They are certainly not going to dominate the glass that same way vs. UConn, a team with tremendous size. The Huskies have allowed just 63, 55 and 65 points in their three tournament wins. 

The Under is 5-2 in UConn’s last seven games. This is a really high total for an Elite 8 game. 10*

Kansas State is coming off back to back wins (75-69 over Kentucky and 98-93 over Michigan State) where they were underdogs, despite being the higher seed. In each instance, ShotQuality data indicates that the Wildcats “should have” lost, the Kentucky game due to being a little fortunate defensively and the Michigan State game due to being a little fortunate on both ends of the court. 

So far in this Tournament, KSU is shooting 65% from two-point range, so they are definitely due for a little regression here. KenPom has FAU rated as the better team here, and I won’t disagree, so let’s take the points in this first Elite 8 matchup. 

After squeaking by Memphis in Round 1, Florida Atlantic has beaten 16-seed FDU and then 4-seed Tennessee. That second round matchup was a bit of a gift and the Owls underperformed (perhaps feeling the pressure as big favorites?) but I didn’t think there was anything phony about the Sweet 16 win over Tennessee.

The Owls held the Vols to 33.3% shooting in the 62-55 win. This is a team that’s now won 10 in a row - with six different leading scorers - and is 34-3 SU on the year. 

I don’t think Kansas State will shoot 55% in this game as they have in two of the previous three rounds. Remember they’ve needed Kentucky to 4 of 20 from three and then shoot the lights out themselves to get by Michigan State. 8* 

The Kings are riding high in recent games.  They haven't given up more than two goals in nine games, a real step up from their  3.2  goals against season's avg.  Korpisalo has played very well as a King, with a .929 save % in his last eight starts.

The Jets seem to be reverting to their fine defensive form but don't score much themselves lately.  Their last five games have all gone under the total.  Hellebuyck has looked better recently after a poor early March.  The Jets are still in the running for a wild card spot, but must do what they do best to succeed, which is play a tight defensive game with solid goal-tending.

Look for this match-up to go under the total.