Will Rogers

Still no Chris Paul for Phoenix. He’ll miss his 10th straight game as the Suns host the Kings Monday night in what shapes up as a pretty important Pacific Division matchup. Sacramento has been hot. They’ve won six straight home games.

Now the Kings do return to Golden 1 Center off back to back road losses. They averaged just 105 points/game in falling at Atlanta and Boston.

Given how much they’ve been scoring at home this year (123.9 points/game), one might be inclined to bet the Kings Over here. However, I see some regression coming their way. Their last three games, admittedly all on the road, all stayed Under. 

Phoenix has gone Under in four straight. They’ve allowed an average of 103.5 points in those four games. The Suns usually do a good job at defending the three-point line and that’s huge against a Kings team that will take a high volume of outside shots.

No Cameron Johnson either for the Suns. The Kings are 5-1 Under so far when facing a team that has a winning record. 10*

There are only 20 teams still unbeaten in College Basketball. Seattle U is one of them! The RedHawks are 5-0 straight up and have covered the spread in all three lined games. Their last game was an 89-53 beatdown of Pacific Lutheran. Seattle has won twice out on the road, against UC San Diego and Portland.

But Washington is obviously the best team Seattle has faced yet. The Huskies are 5-1, their only loss coming to Cal Baptist. Without a shadow of a doubt, the team’s most impressive performance to date came last Thursday when they stunned St. Mary’s 68-64 as 10 point underdogs.

It is telling though that UW is only a small favorite at home. They are not a great offensive team (153rd in efficiency per KenPom) and largely rely on a defense that plays a 2-3 zone, forcing the opposition into long possessions. Teams are shooting just 39.1% against the Huskies, 25.9% from three, and averaging 63.3 points/game.

Seattle has never beaten Washington in 14 previous tries. They were close last year, losing by only eight. This is a game the RedHawks badly want to win. With such importance placed on this one, I expect a lower-scoring game with fewer possessions than normal. 

The last two times these teams have played, there were only 120 and 114 points scored. Those games stayed Under by 22 and 21 points respectively. There’s value with this number now north of 140 points. 10*

We've got a very hot upstart against their neighboring Manhattan-based rival, anxious for pay-back for past history.  The Devils are tops in defense and third in offense, facing a Rangers team that is struggling against top teams and only average in goals scored.  The Rangers are still one of the better defensive teams, but could be out a pair of top defense-men.  The Devils have limited teams to two or less goals in 8 straight games. The total today is pretty average.  I am banking on strong play from both Shesterkin and Vanacek in a low scoring affair.  Take the Under.

The New Jersey Devils are on a terrific roll, bouncing back from their sole loss in ages with two straight wins.  They are 9-1 on the road, and facing an underachieving Rangers team that is just .500 at home.  Shesterkin, tonight's likely starter, has been more uneven than expected, with the Rangers struggling badly against top offenses.  Consistent goal tending has plagued New Jersey in the past, but not this year.  Tonight's likely starter Vanacek, has been both consistent and good, with the Devils allowing 12 goals total and 2 or less in each of their last 8 games.

The Devils' past history against the Rangers is ugly but that was then, and this is now.  They haven't met this year, and it is time for a little pay-back.  New Jersey has the third rated offense and the best defense in the league, and face a Rangers team that is only average on offense and could be out two top defense-men.  You won't find the Devils at better odds, so jump on this match-up!

Ryan is back at QB for the Colts, and while he didn't excel last week, he will face the Steelers' much poorer pass defense in Week 12.  Ryan has been very good at home this season, and while Jonathon Taylor is a solid running back, the Colts are statistically a pass-first offense. This bodes well against the Steelers, who are essentially last in the league when defending the pass.  The Steelers have a reputation as a top team against the run, which is somewhat true. They do limit the opposition to under 4 yards per rush attempt, and 67 yards rushing on average in their last three games, but given how poor their pass defense is, their last three opponents chose to pass 64% of the time.  The Colts have had problems protecting the passer this season, however the Steelers are not the man-eaters of yesteryear in passer pressure, with just a 14% pressure rating and 19 sacks.
Pickett played a better game last week but has yet to prove himself.  The Colts defense is tough to move the ball against.  They held the Eagles to just 17 points last week, allow less rush yards per attempt than the Steelers, and are 6th in passing yards allowed.  They are physically very tough on the passer with 28 sacks and 85 pressures to date.
The Colts are not out of the playoff picture entirely, so Monday will be a more meaningful game for them.  Look for another big game at home from Ryan, generating enough Colts points to win and cover.