The set-up: I think the “under” is worth a second look in this one. The Wild are off a 3-1 home loss to Colorado, while the Capitals are off a 5-4 OT loss to Tampa at home. The Wild are in a dog fight with the Avs for the final playoff spot in the West, so their latest setback was clearly a poor one. The Wild come in desperate here in fact as they’ve lost five of their last six (and it’s been their offense to blame, posting only 11 total goals over its last six games.) Minnesota is 19-17 on the road, averaging 2.78 goals and allowing 2.81 in those contests. The Capitals are 21-15 at home. averaging 3.53 goals and allowing 2.86. 

The pick: Minnesota goaltender Devan Dubnyk is 17-13 with a 2.51 GAA on the road, while Washington net minder Braden Holtby is 14-12 with a 2.80 GAA at home. Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of eight this year after playing three straight home games, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in six of its last eight home games following an OT loss in which it allowed five or more goals in. Consider the “under” in this one.

The set-up: The UCF Knights look to make the most of this opportunity with their first visit to the NCAA Tournament since 2005. UCF averages 72.1 PPG, while allowing just 64.3. Keep your eyes on BJ Taylor, who had 16 points and 3.3 assists per game this season. The Rams have plenty of veteran experience and they’ve advanced to at least the second round in six of their last seven NCAA Tournament appearances, but I think this is a bad matchup for them. VCU averages only 71.4 PPG, while allowing 61.6. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral four games and 4-1 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while VCU is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 neutral court games. Grab the points.

9* play

The set-up: Mississippi State earned an auto bid despite getting ousted in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Liberty was 14-2 in A-Sun Conference play and also earned an auto bid after winning the conference tournament. Mississippi State averages 117.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 96.7 points per 100 possessions. The Liberty Flames average 110.6 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 99.7 points per 100 possessions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Liberty is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest, while Mississippi State is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. Grab the points and expect a competitive battle.

9* play

The set-up: Iowa lost to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals, while Cincinnati just won the AAC Tournament. Overall the Hawkeyes average 78.3 PPG, but they stumbled down the stretch, losing five of their last six, including the listless 74-53 setback at Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. The Bearcats destroyed Houston 69-57 in the Tournament title game. Ultimately I think that Cincinnati’s suffocating defense will prove to be the difference. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games and 7-3 ATS in their last ten non-conference games, while Iowa is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. I’m laying the points and expecting a beatdown.

9* play

The set-up: Washington went 15-3 in the Pac-12, but it was upset by Oregon in the Conference tournament title game. Utah State is 17-1 in its last 18 and it won the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Huskies though won the Pac 12 regular season title. I think the Washington player Jaylen Nowell, who earned Pac 12 Player of the Year honors will prove to be a difficult matchup for the Aggies today (note that Washington also has Pac 12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle as well.) Utah State beat SDSU 64-57 in the title game, but I have a hard time seeing the Aggies’ offense keeping pace today. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog, while Utah State is just 7-8 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. I think the Huskies depth on both end of the floor proves to be too much for the Aggies in this one.

10* play