Free College Football Picks

Indiana-Ohio State

Opener: Ohio State -5.5, 48.5

Best lines: Ohio State -4.5 -110, Indiana +5.5 +110

Best totals: OVER 48.5 -102, UNDER 48.5 -109

Splits on side: 58% of bets, 88% of cash on Indiana

Splits on total: 76% of bets, 77% of cash on over

·      At Lucas Oil Stadium, so hardly neutral 

o   Ohio State is about 178 miles

o   Indiana 50

·      Indiana is 7-5 ATS but by a nation’s best 11.6 margin of cover

·      Ohio 10-1-1 but by only 6.3 points per game 

·      Ohio State under 8-4 by -4 points per game 

·      Indiana over 7-5 +3.6 points per game 

·      Public starts to like dogs in postseason and/or ranked dogs

·      Teams off a road win in a game in which they attempted 10 or fewer first downs is 215-138-8 (Indiana)

·      Undefeated underdogs of 2.5 or more in game 6 or later are 139-112-7 (Indiana)

·      Go with favorite of 3 or more in battle of two ranked teams if not playing a true road game is 399-291-18 (Ohio State)

·      SportsLine has Ohio State winning 27-22

·      Teams off dominant rushing games (at least 300 yards plus other factors) go under 585-396-25

·      Neutral games are not home or away

·      Ohio State 18-2 ATS with no more than six days rest after completing 19 or fewer passes last game 

·      Indiana QB Fernado Mendoza vs. Ohio State Julian Sayin Heisman battle 

·      If it’s possible for a team to get a letdown in a conference championship game, it’s here

o   Ohio State finally snapped Michigan’s 4-game winning streak

o   Defending national champs, looking at bigger picture

o   Indiana only second year as powerhouse and has doubters 

Free pick from Joe Duffy’s Picks: INDIANA +4.5 as tough for Ohio State to avoid true sandwich game in Big 10 championship