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1% GOLD RUSH on North Texas -125

*10-3 NCAAF RUN (as of posting) *FRI & SAT CONF CHAMPIONSHIP WINNERS*Joe D’s NCAAF is SCORCHING HOT & as one of the most profitable documented big game cappers over the L25 years, this is the time of year, WE SCORCH THE BOOKS: C USA, MOUNTAIN WEST, BIG 12, SEC, ACC, BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP WINNERS.

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: Western Michigan Broncos.

Game 114.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

Maybe this game isn't being played in Kalamazoo, but it is being played in Detroit, Michigan and you will see a ton of Broncos fans in the stands. Having said that, this is the third straight MAC title game for the Redhawks, winning the previous two. But they do lose a little luster when they travel going 3-3 on the road this season. While they have won and covered their last two outings, they did struggle a little bit in they're two previous contests, losing and failing to cover both. Meanwhile, Western Michigan enters this matchup red-hot, winning four in a row straight up, and covering their last three games. As a matter of fact, they have played some darn good football. I am well aware Miami took down Western Michigan in the only meeting this season, back at the end of October at home, 26-17. That was their second consecutive win and cover going back several seasons. Prior to that Western Michigan dominated this rivalry, winning eight consecutive meetings straight up, and going 5-3 ATS during that span. Neither offense is known for their passing games. Without question both offenses rely upon their ground games. But also, without question, the Broncos are stronger at running the football. Coincidentally enough, they're both pretty darn good at stopping in rush, as Western Michigan is certainly stronger against the pass. They also possess a defense that ranks 13th nationally, yielding just 18.7 PPG. Speaking of offense, the dual-threat senior quarterback for the Redhawks, is no longer here. And they have a younger, less-seasoned, quarterback at the helm. I just don't see him having too much success here. As a matter of fact, this is a big step up in class from what he's seen recently. Just FYI, Dequan Finn was the experienced leader under center when Miami took down Western Michigan. Now the reins have been passed to Thomas Gotkowski really just has one start under his belt. You can't compare that to quarterback Broc Lowry, who possesses a 63.5% completion rate, 1572 yards passing, and a 7/2 ratio this season. He will be the difference on offense, while the Broncos defense take care of the rest. Take Western Michigan. Thank you.

As the 2025 MAC Championship Game approaches on December 6 at Ford Field in Detroit, bettors are eyeing a gritty rematch between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (7-5, 5-3 MAC) and the Western Michigan Broncos (8-4, 7-1 MAC). The over/under total holds steady at 43.5, a number that screams caution in a conference known for defensive slugfests. This low line isn't accidental ,it's a reflection of both teams' identities as run-heavy, efficiency-challenged offenses facing elite conference defenses, making the under our viable wager in this neutral-site showdown.

Historical trends in the MAC Championship strongly favor the under, providing a rock-solid foundation for this pick. Since 2005, MAC title games have gone under the total in 13 of 20 instances, cashing by an average of about six points per game, with the last six straight championships all staying below the line. This pattern holds even stronger in recent years, as conference games increasingly emphasize clock control and field position over explosive plays, especially indoors at Ford Field where conservative coaching often prevails. For Miami specifically, the RedHawks have been a consistent under machine, posting a 40-28-1 record (58.8%) to the under over the past three seasons, including a 7-5 mark this year where their games averaged just 44.4 total points. Western Michigan isn't far behind, sitting at an even 6-6 over/under this season but allowing only 18.7 points per game (16th nationally) and just 14.5 in MAC play, underscoring their defensive prowess that aligns perfectly with these low-scoring trends.

Diving into the matchup angles, the under's appeal starts with the defensive blueprints on both sides. Western Michigan boasts a top-35 unit in yards per play allowed and a strong pass rush (31st in PFF grade), anchored by edge rusher Nadame Tucker and his 12 sacks, which could disrupt Miami's inexperienced quarterback Thomas Gotkowski and force quick three-and-outs. Miami counters with the nation's third-best pass rush efficiency and a run defense that surrendered just 101.1 yards per game in conference, holding Western Michigan's non-QB backs to a measly 50 yards in their October 26-17 victory in a game that totaled exactly 43 points, teasing right under today's line. Both offenses rank in the 90s nationally in EPA per play, with Western Michigan leaning on a ground attack that averaged only 3.7 yards per carry against Miami earlier, while the RedHawks' +9 turnover margin in MAC games flips field position and stifles drives into field goals rather than touchdowns.

Another key angle is the championship environment itself, where pressure often leads to risk-averse play-calling and fewer big plays. Western Michigan's dual-threat QB Broc Lowry (971 rushing yards, 14 TDs) is a wildcard, but Miami's linebacker Jackson Kuwatch and their top-tier front have already proven they can contain him, as evidenced by Lowry's fumble in the first meeting. With both teams' average game totals hovering around 45-46 points but dipping lower in conference clashes, and sharp money leaning under in similar low totals, this setup projects to a 23-20 or 24-17 final...well below 43.5. Neutral-site dynamics at Ford Field further suppress scoring, as the lack of home crowd energy encourages ball control over aggression.

In summary, the combination of MAC historical unders, team-specific trends favoring low totals, and matchup angles highlighting defensive dominance make the under 43.5 (-110) a viable totals bet for this MAC Championship. While the spread is tempting with Miami's pedigree in title games (their third straight appearance), the real value lies in betting on a defensive war where points come at a premium. Grab the under early before any line movement, and let's cash in on this grinder.

Play on the under

PSP Data Driven 1* Virginia.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Virginia is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games. Duke is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games against Virginia.

Indiana-Ohio State

Opener: Ohio State -5.5, 48.5

Best lines: Ohio State -4.5 -110, Indiana +5.5 +110

Best totals: OVER 48.5 -102, UNDER 48.5 -109

Splits on side: 58% of bets, 88% of cash on Indiana

Splits on total: 76% of bets, 77% of cash on over

·      At Lucas Oil Stadium, so hardly neutral 

o   Ohio State is about 178 miles

o   Indiana 50

·      Indiana is 7-5 ATS but by a nation’s best 11.6 margin of cover

·      Ohio 10-1-1 but by only 6.3 points per game 

·      Ohio State under 8-4 by -4 points per game 

·      Indiana over 7-5 +3.6 points per game 

·      Public starts to like dogs in postseason and/or ranked dogs

·      Teams off a road win in a game in which they attempted 10 or fewer first downs is 215-138-8 (Indiana)

·      Undefeated underdogs of 2.5 or more in game 6 or later are 139-112-7 (Indiana)

·      Go with favorite of 3 or more in battle of two ranked teams if not playing a true road game is 399-291-18 (Ohio State)

·      SportsLine has Ohio State winning 27-22

·      Teams off dominant rushing games (at least 300 yards plus other factors) go under 585-396-25

·      Neutral games are not home or away

·      Ohio State 18-2 ATS with no more than six days rest after completing 19 or fewer passes last game 

·      Indiana QB Fernado Mendoza vs. Ohio State Julian Sayin Heisman battle 

·      If it’s possible for a team to get a letdown in a conference championship game, it’s here

o   Ohio State finally snapped Michigan’s 4-game winning streak

o   Defending national champs, looking at bigger picture

o   Indiana only second year as powerhouse and has doubters 

Free pick from Joe Duffy’s Picks: INDIANA +4.5 as tough for Ohio State to avoid true sandwich game in Big 10 championship