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This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our Sunday Free Play. The Ravens are coming off a big win over Buffalo on Sunday which moved it to 2-2 following a 0-2 start. It was their best performance of the season and the offense was dominant for a second straight week following a victory over Dallas in Week Three, a game the Ravens nearly blew a massive 28-6 fourth quarter lead. They are now in a tough situation as they hit the road for their first divisional game now being considered a front runner again in the AFC following their 0-2 start. The metrics are on their side offensively as the Ravens are No. 1 in Offensive DVOA and No. 3 in Offensive EPA and they do have an edge over the Bengals defense that has underperformed but the spot sets up well with expected Baltimore regression in the running game. The Cincinnati offense has begun to heat up the last two weeks, having scored 33 and 34 points against Washington and Carolina respectively. Those are two bad defenses but the Baltimore defense has been nothing special this season prior to stepping up against Josh Allen and the Bills as the Ravens are just No. 18 in Defensive EPA. Quarterback Joe Burrow has quietly put up three straight exceptional games with passer ratings of 100.5, 127.5 and 103.7, the latter against a solid Kansas City defense. He has his full complement of receivers back and can touch up this Baltimore secondary that is No. 19 in Defensive Passing EPA. AFC North Divisional underdogs are 23-14 ATS since 2021. Play (456) Cincinnati Bengals

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Houston Texans +1.5

The wrong team is favored in this game.  I have the Texans and Bills power rated as two even teams.  So getting the Texans as home underdogs is a nice value.  The Texans have reinforcements on the way with Tank Dell returning this week, and Joe Mixon likely returning.  The Bills lost more players last week in their 35-10 home loss to the Ravens.  They were already without LB Terrel Bernard, LB Matt Milano and CB Taron Johnson.  WR Khalil Shakir and LT Dion Dawkins both got banged up against the Ravens.  Now DE Von Miller has been suspended.  The Bills are short on weapons on offense, and short on depth on defense.  Give me the Texans.

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Browns vs Commanders 
1 ET, October 6, 2024 
Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD 
5-Unit bet on the Browns priced as 3.5-point underdogs. 

26-13 ATS Last 39 NFL Best Bets and 2-0 ATS with 10-UNIT MAX Bets and 68% ATS last 5 years.
MNF Football Triple System 8-Unit Titan is released.

The week-to-week scoring volatility and results has been the highest ever so far this season. I did have another 10-UNIT Game of the Month winners on the Washington Commanders as the destroyed the Arizona Cardinals 42-14 and were priced as underdogs. I am 4-1 ATS with College and Pro 10-Unit Best Bets this season and both NFL plays have been dogs.  

In week 3 we witnessed the Buffalo Bills embarrassing the Jaguars on National TV and then they themselves were thrashed by the Ravens Sunday night. So, do not think for a second that a previous great or embarrassing performance by any NFL will carry over and form a trend that can be trusted. 

Favorites have gone 37-25 SU (60%) and 27-34-1 ATS (44%) this season. If that favorite is coming off a win, they have gone just 12-14 SU and 6-16-1 ATS (36%). Favorites that were priced as underdogs in their previous game have gone just 8-13 SU (38%) and 6-15 ATS (29%) this season.  

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 36-36 SU (50%) and 44-22-6 ATS (67%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on road dogs priced between 2.5 and 5.5 points. 

The dog scored fewer than their posted team total in their previous game. 

The dog is coming off an upset loss to a conference foe. 

The Browns are priced as 3.5-point road underdogs. They scored 16 points in their four-point loss to the Raiders in Week 4 priced as three-point favorites. 

From the predictive model: The projections call for the Browns to gain 6.25 or more yards-per-pass and to have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games over the previous five seasons, the Browns have gone 19-3 SU (86.4%) and 15-7 ATS for 68% winning bets and 6-2 SUATS 975%) if priced as the dog.

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Cowboys/Steelers OVER 44

The Key: The Cowboys are an OVER team this season.  Their defense is as poor as it has been in a long time, and it's getting even worse now with the losses of their 2 best pass rushers in Parsons and Lawrence to injury.  They are missing 2 key players in the secondary as well.  The Steelers just lost their star LB in Highsmith and it made a difference as they had their worst outing of the season last week in a 27-24 loss to the Colts.  Now they must face this high-powered Dallas passing game that can move the ball through the air against anyone.  There won't be many stops in this game as it easily tops this 44-point total Sunday night.  Take the OVER.

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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Green Bay Packers -3

The Green Bay Packers committed four turnovers and missed two field goals and still only lost to the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings 31-29 last week.  I think that loss is keeping this line lower than it should be, and we'll take advantage and back the Packers as mere 3-point favorites over the lowly Los Angeles Rams this week.

Few teams have been hit harder by injuries than the Rams.  They are without their two best weapons in Kupp and Nacua.  They should be 0-4 right now but managed to upset the 49ers despite getting outgained 425 to 296 in that game.  They are still getting too much respect for that win this week.

Keep in mind the Rams lost 41-10 at Arizona the previous week and that loss looks even worse now.  They lost 24-18 at Chicago last week in what was the most efficient game of the season from Caleb Williams, who looked lost until he got to go up against this awful Los Angeles defense.

The Rams rank 31st in scoring defense at 28.8 points per game, 31st in total defense at 385.2 yards per game and 32nd at 6.6 yards per play allowed.  That makes this a very bad matchup for them going up against a Packers team that ranks 3rd in total offense at 410.0 yards per game and 3rd at 6.5 yards per play.  This despite being without Jordan Love for two games.  

Now Love has a game under his belt returning from a knee injury, and early reports are he looks great in practice this week.  It was vintage Love leading the Packers back from a 28-0 deficit to the Vikings to only lose by 2.  I'm confident he and the Packers are going to light up this Rams defense, and I just don't think Stafford and company are going to be able to match them score for score with such limited weapons on offense right now.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

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