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Thursday, December 7, 2023
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Eagles/Cowboys OVER 51.5
The Dallas Cowboys are scoring 41.0 points per game at home this season. The OVER is 5-1 in Dallas' six home games this season, and I think we can chalk up another OVER here with the Philadelphia Eagles coming to town Sunday night.
This Eagles' defense is worn out. They were on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs and then 91 plays against the Bills. They gave up 515 total yards to the Bills and then were gashed for 42 points and 456 yards by the 49ers. They are also pretty banged up defensively, so the Cowboys are going to get their points.
The Eagles are going to have to try to keep up in a shootout and are capable, especially with TE Dallas Goedert expected to return from injury this week. The Cowboys just allowed 35 points and 406 total yards to the Seahawks in their last home game. They also gave up 28 points to the Eagles in their first meeting this season.
This has been an OVER series. The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Cowboys and Eagles with 51 or more combined points in five of those six meetings. The last three meetings in Dallas have seen 74, 62 and 54 combined points. Dallas is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games in the 2nd half of the season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
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1* FREE INFO PLAY
1* Free Pick on Patriots
All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.
FREE PLAY on Patriots
Thursday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.
There's obviously a rather slim margin for error when playing 'under' a total this low. However, in this particular matchup, I think there's a good chance that low posted total may appear high by the time halftime rolls around. The Patriots lost the one good thing they had going on offense in RB Rhamondre Stevenson last Sunday. I still think New England does have a shot at extending some drives at the very least, chewing up clock and effectively shortening this game in the process, thanks to some notable injuries on the Steelers defense. On the flip side, Pittsburgh is always more than happy to pin its chances on its ground game and defense and in this critical bounce-back spot following Sunday's 24-10 loss to the Cardinals, it should do the same. I can't help but feel both teams have a vested interest in shortening proceedings and that should lend itself to a low-scoring affair. Take the under.
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