Free College Football Picks

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: California +10.5

I successfully faded Miami last week with Virginia Tech +19.5 in a game the Hokies nearly won outright.  It was the Hurricanes' toughest test of the season to date.  I am going against them again here Saturday in what will now be their toughest game yet as they hit the road to face a very underrated Cal Bears team.

The Bears have a big rest and preparation advantage coming in off a bye week.  I imagine it was a very productive bye week considering they were coming off a tough 14-9 loss at Florida State in a game they had no business losing.  The Bears outgained the Seminoles 410 to 284, or by 126 total yards.

Cal's 21-14 win at Auburn looks very impressive and there was nothing fluky about that victory.  The Bears outgained the Tigers 332 to 286 for the game.  That's the only game Auburn has been outgained in this season as the Tigers let both Oklahoma and Arkansas off the hook with turnovers.  They should be 4-1, and if they were that win by Cal would be getting a lot more attention than it is.

Justin Wilcox is a great defensive coach and will use those two weeks to come up with the proper game plan to slow down Cam Ward and this Miami offense.  The Bears rank 12th in the country in scoring defense at 12.8 points per game, 23rd in total defense at 287.5 yards per game and 17th at 4.4 yards per play.  Wilcox is 40-25 ATS as an underdog as the head coach of the Bears.  Bet California Saturday.

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The upcoming college football contest between the Oregon Ducks and Michigan State Spartans on Friday, October 4, 2024, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon, is expected to be a dominant showing for the Ducks. Oregon enters the game with a perfect 4-0 record and an offense averaging 36 points per game, while Michigan State sits at 3-2 with a struggling offense, only putting up 21.8 points per game. Oregon's quarterback Dillon Gabriel has been efficient, completing over 80% of his passes for 1,192 yards, 9 touchdowns, and just 1 interception. The Ducks also feature a strong running game led by Jordan James, who averages nearly 100 yards per game. Defensively, Oregon has allowed only 18.8 points per game, showing they can dominate on both sides of the ball. Michigan State, on the other hand, has faced difficulties, particularly with turnovers. Quarterback Aidan Chiles has thrown 9 interceptions this season, contributing to the Spartans' struggles. While Michigan State's defense has been relatively solid, allowing just 19 points per game, their offensive inefficiencies and turnover issues could lead to a lopsided affair against Oregon's potent offense. Lay the points with Oregon here on Friday.

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Alabama/Vanderbilt OVER 55.5

The Key: The forecast looks perfect for a shootout this afternoon between Alabama and Vanderbilt with temperatures in the 80's and almost zero wind.  Vanderbilt has another poor defense this year, but their offense is vastly improved with Diego Pavia at quarterback.  They are 26th in the country in scoring offense at 37 PPG.  They are up against an Alabama offense that may be the best in school history.  The Crimson Tide rank 8th in scoring offense at 47 PPG and just hung 41 points on Georgia last week to prove what they are capable of.  The defense has taken a step back this season under Kalen DeBoer, who is an offensive guys taking over for the defensive-minded Nick Saban.  This total should be in the 60's.  Take the OVER.

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1* NCAAF - UCF/Florida FREE PICK on Florida +2.5

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Indiana/Northwestern UNDER 41.5

The new field the Northwestern Wildcats are playing on this season is right on the lake.  It gets affected by wind a lot more than most stadiums, and it's almost always windy there.  There will be 15-20 MPH sustained winds on Saturday when the Wildcats host the Indiana Hoosiers.  We saw a similar forecast when Northwestern played Duke earlier this season in a game that was tied 13-13 at the end of regulation.  Both of these defenses are very strong.  Northwestern gives up 302 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.  Indiana gives up 239.6 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play.  I can't see Northwestern topping 10 points in this game, and I'm confident the Wildcats can hold the Hoosiers to 24 to 31 points.  Give me the UNDER.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Oregon

This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS for our Saturday Free Play. Miami is coming off a controversial win over Virginia Tech as a Hokies last second touchdown was overturned and the Hurricanes survived a 38-34 victory. Now they are in a difficult spot coming off that emotional win and now having to travel out west as a big favorite. The offense was able to generate 505 total yards but quarterback Cam Ward was under pressure all night as he was not only sacked four times but went 8-21 when not in a clean pocket and this favors the California defense as it has a top 40 Pass Rush Rate. The Golden Bears have an outstanding secondary as they are ranked No. 17 in coverage which has led to few redzone chances. Overall, California has allowed 14 points or fewer in all four of its games while its 12.8 ppg allowed is No. 12 in the country. The Golden Bears suffered a tough 14-9 loss at Florida St. despite outgaining the Seminoles 410-284 to fall to 3-1 and while their defense has led the way, the offense has not been horrible, they just have not been able to generate a lot of points. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has not put up huge numbers but he is efficient with a 67.5 percent completion rate and California is No. 33 in Success Rate on passing downs. The running game needs to get going and this is a defense to do so against as the Hurricanes cannot tackle. This is a big number for Miami to be laying after such a huge win and the California defense can keep this one within range and under margin. Play (360) California Golden Bears

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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #390 Minnesota Golden Gophers over USC Trojans (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 5 BTN) Just do not expect Minnesota to meltdown like Wisconsin did last week against USC. The Trojans are not strong in the trenches, and I do not believe they will be able to convert a high percentage of third downs like they did last week. Minnesota took Michigan to the wire last week, a team that beat USC earlier this season and I think they can do the same on Saturday. Look for a lower scoring game and getting points is the way to go. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend Football Card, as we will have a bounce back week. Sign-up now with a long term package and let 53 years of handicapping experience work for you.

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick

PLAY ON: Indiana -13.5 

Give me the Hoosiers laying less than two touchdowns on the road against Northwestern. This line almost feels too good to be true, but the books haven't been close on the spread for Indiana games this season.

I just don't think people realize how good this Hoosiers team is. Indiana ranks in No. 11 in the country with 513 yards/game. They are No. 10 with an average of 7.6 yards/play. It's not just the offense. The defense ranks No. 10 in total defense allowing 239.6 ypg and 15th in yards/play at 4.2. I just don't see where the points will come from for the Wildcats. Northwestern ranks 121st in total offense at 294.5 ypg and 121st in yards/play at 4.6. The Wildcats had 112 total yards in their last game against Washington.

Big deal Northwestern is at home and coming off a bye. They are a bad team. Indiana may have found something in first year head coach Curt Cignetti. Guy had a 119-35 career record at JMU, Elon and IUP. He's got a team sitting at 5-0 that finished last year 3-9 and was picked by almost everyone to finish in the bottom half of the now 18-team Big ten. Give me the Hoosiers -13.5! 

PSP Data Driven 1* free pick on Over. 

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Over. The Gators run defense ranks at the bottom of the SEC. Central Florida ranks #1 in the country in rushing offense.

After losing a close game to Alabama last week someone has to pay , and Im betting that will be Auburn here on the road vs a redemption minded side . Note: The Bulldogs  are 8-0 SU and ATS hosting Auburn since 2007. 

Play on Georgia to cover

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Navy at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Air Force was a complete no-show on the road against Wyoming last Saturday. The Falcons have now lost three games in a row while Navy checks in a perfect 4-0 on the season. Of course, you can throw records out the window when the service academies do battle for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. No team has won the trophy in consecutive years since Navy accomplished that feat in 2012-13. Air Force last won it in 2022 with Navy having not taken it home since 2019. But I digress. While Navy's perfect start is impressive, it's not as if it has faced a ton of resistance. The win over Memphis was nice but that came at home. Air Force obviously has a lot to prove this week and given its schedule ahead, a win this week could catapult it into a nice comeback. The Falcons have taken each of the last four meetings in this series and I look for them to take this game down to the wire at the very least on Saturday. Take Air Force.