Free MLB Baseball Picks

Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Tampa Bay Rays +103 

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this series with the Oakland A’s highly motivated for a victory in Game 1.  They have lost three straight and seven of their last nine overall in what has been their worst stretch of the season. 

Ace Charlie Morton will stop the bleeding tonight.  He is 8-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.030 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 5-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in eight road starts.  He faced Oakland on June 10 and pitched 7 shutout innings in a 6-2 victory. 

The Rays are 7-1 in Morton’s last eight road starts.  Tampa Bay is 17-6 in its last 23 vs. AL West opponents.  The A’s are 3-10 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Rays Thursday.

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1* Free MLB Pick on Minnesota Twins -183

I got no problem backing Minnesota as a big road favorite against the Royals on Thursday. Twins will have Jake Odorizzi on the mound and they simply don't lose when he's the starter. Minnesota has won 11 straight starts by Odorizzi.

That includes a recent start and win at home over these Royals last week. For the season, Odorizzi is 10-2 with a 2.24 ERA and 1.009 WHIP. Glenn Sparkman will start for KC and he's been solid of late. However, Sparkman has allowed 3 homers in his last two starts and this Twins team feasts off the long ball. Sparkman has a 6.75 ERA over five appearances against Minnesota.

Twins have won 4 of the 5 meetings so far this season. They are also 21-5 in their last 26 when coming off a loss, 26-8 in their last 34 division games and 9-2 in their last 11 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Minnesota! 

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Free Play on Royals +141

1* Free Sharp Play on Cubs -124

My money is on the Cubs to cash in a win here at home against the Mets. Not sure why the books have made Chicago such a small home favorite here. New York is calling up Walker Lockett to take over for the injured Noah Syndergaard and Lockett had a 9.60 ERA in 4 appearances (3 starts) last year. Cubs will send out Tyler Chatwood, who has been great out of the pen and are expected to use prospect Adbert Alzolay in relief. Bet the Cubs -124! 

Free Play on Brewers -132

Tampa Bay is a good road team. They Rays also have a solid starter going in Charle Morton.  So why go against them?  Three reasons: Price, spot and Frankie Montas.  The Rays find themselves in a tough situation. They just were swept in New York by the Yankees, a huge letdown for them considering that was a showdown for the AL East Division lead. Tampa Bay was outscored 21-4 by the Yankees in the three-game series. The Rays have lost seven of their last nine games and have to travel from the East Coast to the West Coast. The last time the Rays were on West Coast time was early April.  AL East teams often struggle when playing the A's in Oakland. They are used to playing in hitter's parks. The A's, who are 22-17 at home, play in a pitcher's park that has strange dimensions. It is not a popular venue for opposing teams.  I like the righthanded Morton. I just like Montas better. Montas has become an All-Star this season giving up three or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 starts. His swinging strike rate has gone from 8.6 percent last year to 11 percent. The Rays have the added disadvantage of never having faced him.  Morton is coming off a subpar start where he allowed four earned runs and two homers in six innings against the Angels this past Saturday. Oakland has won six of its last seven games against a righy starter. 
 (Editor's note: Stephen Nover has won 67 percent of his premium/free June run line plays. His Thursday ticket is headed by his Run Line Dominator. Stephen also has his Canadian Football League Total of the Week going today. Stephen is 2-1 this season in the CFL going for his fourth winning CFL season in five years.) 

Play - Cincinnati Reds w/Roark vs. Nelson (Game 909).   

Edges - Reds: Roark visiting team is 10-3 in his team-starts this season, and 24 Ks with 4 BBs last four overall starts … Brewers: Nelson 0-2 with 10.29 ERA and 2.14 WHIP this season … With that, we recommend a 1* play on Cincinnati.  Thank you and good luck as always. 

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The MLB Comp play is on Minnesota at 8:15 eastern. The Twins are 16-2 as a road favorite 3-0 off a home game. They are 5-1 on Thursdays and 46-14 vs a Pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or worse and 26-8 vs division teams. They have Odorizzi going and have won won his last 5 road starts and 14 of 17 with him against losing teams. KC is 12-50 vs .600 or better opponents 1-5 in the series and 0-5 with Sparkman if they lost his last start. Look for the Twins to take the opener. For the MLB Free pick. Make it Minnesota. RV- GC Sports

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My free play is on the TB Rays at 10:07 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays arrived in the Bronx on Monday for a three-game series with the NY Yankees, one which loomed as a showdown for supremacy in the AL East . The Rays now 'limp' out of New York and head cross-country for a four-game series with the Oakland A's, as they continue a 10-game road trip. Tampa Bay was outscored 21-4 by New York in getting swept for only the second time this season in a three-game set. Tampa Bay has now lost SEVEN of its last nine games, including two of three at home vs Oakland, to fall 3 1/2 games off the division lead. Meanwhile, the Oakland A's are in the thick of the AL wild-card race, following a three-game sweep of the hapless Baltimore Orioles, including a 16-2 rout that featured six HRs on Tuesday. The A's are 39-36, one of FIVE teams withing four games of the AL's second wild card spot (Oakland is just 1 1/2 games back of the final playoff spot!). Thursday pitching matchup is a VERY good one. Charlie Morton (8-1, 2.37 ERA) will step to the mound for the Rays, opposed by Frankie Montas (9-2, 2.85 ERA). Morton spent his first nine years in the National League and sported a 46-71 record. However, he arrived in Tampa Bay this spring (as a free agent), after registering his best two seasons in the majors with Houston, going 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA in 55 starts. He won a World Series title with the Houston Astros in 2017 and made his first All-Star team in 2018. Speaking of the All Star game, Morton is making a case to start this year's game in July. Morton took the mound his last time having won FOUR straight starts, posting a 1.00 ERA and a .151 BAA in that span. Morton hadn't lost in 21 starts dating to a 3-2 defeat against the Seattle Mariners on Aug 11 (when he was still with the Houston Astros), giving him the longest unbeaten streak in the majors. However, Morton suffered his first loss of the season last Saturday, losing 5-3 to the LA Angels. He gave up a pair of early HRs over a six-inning stint in which he permitted four runs and five hits. Montas is working on a "career season," as he needs just one more victory to double his previous career-high total. He comes off winning a THIRD consecutive win, after giving up two runs on six hits while striking out nine to beat Seattle 11-2 on Saturday. He is 5-0  (2.77 ERA) during an eight-start unbeaten streak (A's are 6-2) and has allowed THREE runs or less in 13 of his 14 starts in 2019 (A's are 10-4). Tha A's are riding the momentum of the three-game sweep of the Orioles (outscored the visitors 27-7) but after all, it was Baltimore (Orioles are MLB's worst team at 21-57). . Yes, the Rays were swept by the Yankees (outscored 21-4) but New York is 46-27, 25 1/2 games better than Baltimore.The Rays arrived in New York with a 23-10 road record, which was a MLB-best. I expect them to bounce back here, with Morton out-pitching Montas.

Good luck...Larry

These two teams are heading in opposite directions as the Oakland Athletics have won six of their last eight and the Tampa Bay Rays losing seven of their last nine. I'm happy to take the hotter team at this price here in the opener of a four-game series Thursday night. 

Oakland right-hander Frankie Montas (9-2, 2.85 ERA) has been excellent of late, going 5-0 with a 2.77 ERA in his past eight starts. He must feel pretty confident knowing he'll face a Rays team that opened this week by getting outscored 21-4 while getting swept over three games by the Yankees.

Tampa Bay righty Charlie Morton (8-1, 2.37 ERA) is certainly no slouch either, but he was tagged with four runs on five hits (two homers) in six innings of a 5-3 loss to the Los Angeles Angels last time out. Here Morton has to try and slow down an Oakland side that is coming off a three-game home sweep of the Baltimore Orioles during which it outscored its opponent 27-7. 

Athletics are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Athletics are 6-1 in Montas' last 7 starts.

Free pick on Oakland Athletics. 

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5-Star Wager on the Los Angeles Dodgers as they take on the Colorado Rockies set to start at 10:10 PM EST, Friday, June 21, 2019

The Rockies will be starting a three-game series against the Dodgers. Entering Thursday’s action, the Rockies have played well of late winning 19 of their last 11 games, but have not been abel to gain ground on the NL West division-leading Dodgers as they too have played well winning 21 of their last 30 games.

The Rockies will have right-hander German Marquez (7-3, 4.57) on the hill while the Dodgers will counter with right-hander Walker Buehler (7-1, 3.06). Over his last seven starts German Marquez has struggled to a 3-1 record with a 6.04 ERA allowing 30 earned runs on 48 hits with 12 walks spanning 44 2/3 innings of work. Buehler has been unhittable at tikes and has gone 3-1 over his last seven starts with a paltry 1.57 ERA allowing just eight earned runs on 32 hits spanning 46 innings of work. He has faced the Rockiesprior to this ketchup and in his last five starts he has compiled a 1.47 ERA allowing five earned runs on 17 hits spanning 30 2/3 innings of work.

The machine learning projections call for Buehler to complete at least six innings of work and will complete more innings than German and that the Dodgers will have at least two multiple run innings. In past road games where the Dodgers have been installed as favorites and have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a remarkable 143-15 SU record for 90.5% wins and a 52% ROI, a 122-15 run line record for 89.1% wins and a robust 89% ROI, and a 123-31-4 ‘OVER’ record for 80% wins and a 52% ROI since 2004.