Matt Fargo

This is a play on the CHARLOTTE HORNETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The Hornets came through on Thursday and this team is still being slept on. As mentioned, Charlotte opened the season 16-28 but then something clicked and the Hornets have gone 23-6 over their last 29 games. The win over the Knicks coupled with the Atlanta loss to Boston put Charlotte 1.5 games behind the Hawks in the Southeast Division while sitting two games behind Toronto to get out of the Play In Tournament but also have two other teams in front of them. Charlotte is 9-0 ATS this season at home off a home win winning by 19.0 ppg. Philadelphia welcomed back Joel Embiid and Paul George on Wednesday and it resulted in a 20-point win over Chicago as the Sixers put up 157 points, 63 points coming from the aforementioned duo. The issue is they allowed 137 points. Here, we play on teams after three straight wins by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more. This situation is 42-14 (75 percent) since 1997. 10* (530) Charlotte Hornets

This is a play on the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS for our CBB Tourney Dominator. Arizona looks unbeatable at this point as it rolled over Arkansas by 21 points despite only five made three-pointers as the Wildcats shot 64 percent from two and while Purdue is no defensive juggernaut, it presents the biggest test Arizona has seen thus far in the tournament. The Boilermakers are not going to stop Arizona but they can force the Wildcats into their game as tempo will play a role and Purdue will want to slow it down as it is No. 325 in Adjusted Tempo. On the other side, the Wildcats have shown an elite defense but now they face the No. 1 team in the country in Offensive Efficiency. Purdue should have been able to pull away from Texas but the Longhorns were 11-25 from long range while the Boilermakers were just 4-20. They are No. 11 in Three-Point Percentage and a key here is Braden Smith who is hitting just 23 percent over his last seven games. Still, he has given his team high-quality looks and Purdue should give Arizona all it can handle with winning outright not out of the question. 10* (631) Purdue Boilermakers

This is a play on the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI for our CBB Tourney Enforcer. We have another game featuring a rematch as Illinois won the lone regular season meeting at Iowa by six point but the Illini were never threatened as they never trailed as they opened the game 8-0 and built an 18-point lead. Ben McCoullum will make adjustments and he does have the coaching edge over Brad Underwood but Illinois has too much going for it in this matchup. Illinois dominated what many thought was a sure Final Four team in Houston as its defense did the job. The offense did struggle but that was against the No. 4 rated defense and now they take a step down. The Hawkeyes are not good defensively as they are No. 32 in Defensive Efficiency. Iowa is No. 282 in 2P%, allowing 54.2 percent with a lot of that due to not generating blocks as the Hawkeyes are No. 330 in Block% and while their one huge strength is forcing turnovers where they are No. 16, Illinois turns the ball over as little as any team in the nation with a Turnover Rate of 13.1 percent, No. 10 in the country. 10* (630) Illinois Fighting Illini

This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Evening Double Play. Sean Burke is not a top of the line starter as he had a 4.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP last season and his ERA is projected to be around the same while his WHIP should come down as his career walk rate has been awful and if he can keep the ball in the yard, his ERA should improve as well. He has a redesigned slider grip which will compliment his 95+ fastball as he made significant strides in that area as his seven feet of extension are a great asset to have. Chad Patrick was solid last season with a 3.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 23 starts but most systems are forecasting an ERA between 4.30-4.47. We do not typically take spring training results into much consideration but he had a rough one, posting a 11.68 ERA and 2.11 WHIP over four appearances. In his final spring outing on March 22, he allowed seven runs in four innings against the Cubs. 10* (923) Chicago White Sox

This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Evening Double Play. Eduardo Rodriguez was a highly touted prospect but he has been plagued by injuries and his 5.02 ERA last season was indicative of that. He is on a path for positive progression in the 4.15–4.45 ERA range as long as he remains healthy which is where he is now. His velocity is up and that can be attributed to arriving at spring training around 25 pounds lighter that last year so he could be prime for a breakout and his performance in the WBC showed his electricity. On the flip side, Tyler Glasnow added weight in the offseason to try and improve his durability and physical foundation as injuries have been an issue. He is healthy now so there are no worries but he is overpriced in this spot. He is coming off a season where he had a 3.19 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with a 17.2% K:BB%. He is project for negative regression with an ERA between 3.40 and 3.90. 10* (907) Arizona Diamondbacks

This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Afternoon Double Play. Taj Bradley is being pegged as a sleeper breakout candidate as he has a new home after being traded at the deadline. Overall, he had a 5.05 ERA with most systems expecting an ERA in the 4.20–4.40 range over approximately 140 innings. He has elite raw stuff and the Rays gave up on him quickly as he is just 25 and the spring showed where things could go. His conditioning has improved and his fastball was averaging 97.0-97.7 mph in his spring starts, the highest of his career. Kyle Bradish is a wildcard as he posted a 2.53 ERA in six starts late in the season following Tommy John surgery. His projections are in the sub-4.00 ERA area and while there is upside from that, he is going to be stretched early as both Bradish and the Orioles have indicated there may be some innings limits or workload management early in the season. 10* (911) Minnesota Twins

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Afternoon Double Play. Mitch Keller is coming off a solid season with a 4.19 ERA and 1.26 WHIP which has been right in line with his previous three seasons. Composite and individual systems suggest a performance consistent with those previous years, albeit with a slight concern over a declining strikeout rate. However, during Spring Training, he unveiled a redesigned grip for his changeup to reclaim the swing-and-miss profile he had during his 2023 season so it is not a velocity issue. David Peterson was somewhat of a disappointment with a 4.22 ERA and 1.37 WHIP and projections are slightly better but his 4.55 xERA from last season was a concern. This is where there is possible regression which is not good for the No. 2 starter and the season the xERA was high was due to his elite groundball rate and that should come more back to the median which is not good for him. 10* (905) Pittsburgh Pirates