Matt Fargo

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. This is the second game of a home set for Toronto hosting the Sixers and it is coming off a one point win on Sunday in overtime. We were waiting for some info on Joel Embiid and Paul George who missed the game on Sunday and all indications are that Sunday was a simple rest day and both will be back and the line is reflecting a portion of that. It was a back and forth game yesterday with the Sixers killing themselves with 22 turnovers to go along with their second straight game of misfiring from long range as they are 12-59 (20.3 percent) over the two games. The Raptors won despite a skeleton roster as the injury list remains long and it will not change much tonight. Toronto is 0-3 ATS at home after a win by six points or less. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, revenging two straight losses where the opponent scored 100 or more points going up against that opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. This situation is 54-21 ATS (72 percent) since 1997. 10* (537) Philadelphia 76ers

This is a play on the TEXAS SOUTHERN TIGERS for our Monday Free Play. It is not very often to get value on one of the worst teams in Division I but we have it tonight. Texas Southern is considered this based on the NET Rankings as they are No. 353 but the Southwestern Conference as a whole is the worst in the country so that brings their number down. As does Quad 1 and Quad 2 losses against Gonzaga, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, NC State and Minnesota. The Tigers are 0-3 in the conference and as contenders coming in, this is the smash spot to get right and we have their 0-7 ATS run on our side to go contrarian. Mississippi Valley St. has been the worst team in the country for years as its one win this season added to their win total the previous five years makes it 14 wins since 2020-21. So it is no surprise it is getting a line like this tonight and it looks tempting for a take but coming off what was a hard fought loss in trying to get its first Division I win on Saturday means this will be tough to get up for. The Delta Devils are No. 354 and No. 351 in Effective Field Goal Percentage Offense and Defense while sitting dead last in the country in Turnover Percentage. Play (306674) Texas Southern Tigers

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This is a play on the INCARNATE WORD CARDINALS for our CBB Ultimate Underdog. The Southland Conference has already turned into a top heavy race with Nicholls at 7-0 and Stephen F. Austin and McNeese St. both at 6-1 with the next level sitting at 4-3. The latter were expected to contend but the Lumberjacks have been the pleasant surprise in their first season in the conference. They opened preseason No. 234 and have moved all the way to No. 107 as they are 13-3 with the three losses coming by nine combined points. They opened -8.5 here and the line has actually come down which makes this the sharp play fading a team on an 8-0 ATS run. Incarnate Word came in as a possible contender but it is off to a 3-4 start although there is plenty of time left and a win here gets the Cardinals a step closer. They have struggled on the road at 0-7 but four of those are against top 90 teams including losses at Indiana and TCU by eight and four points respectively. 10* (306649) Incarnate Word Cardinals

This is a play on the NORFOLK ST. SPARTANS for our MEAC Game of the Month. Norfolk St. snapped a three-game slide with a two-point win at Delaware St. to move to 1-1 in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference after a bad loss against North Carolina Central, albeit on the road and by just a bucket. The Spartans are back home for the first time in forever as their last home game was all the way back on November 25th where they improved to 4-0 and while they have defeated no one at home except for Hampton, the return home cannot be overstated for the preseason favorites. Maryland Eastern Shore is off to a 2-0 start in the conference, both wins at home, after ending its nonconference season on a seven-game losing streak. All of those were on the road where there has been a mix of good and bad competition but at the end of the day, the Hawks are 1-12 on the road and another last place finish is upcoming as this is a horrible travel spot. 10* (306662) Norfolk St. Spartans

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. Arguably, Pittsburgh should not be here as it got into the postseason, and a home playoff game to go with it, because of a missed 44-yard field goal as time expired but a second life can be revitalizing, especially for a team that is on a 0-6 playoff losing streak which started in 2016. The Steelers are fortunate for sure but get a good matchup at home and while facing a red hot team does not seem ideal, it is just fine. Houston is on a roll and the Texans fans love the momentum but watch what you ask for as teams entering the postseason on a nine or more game winning streak are just 6-19 ATS since 2002 as these teams are essentially overvalued every time as the public loves these big winning streaks but they do not understand the value taken away in the pointspread because of it. We all know the stat, or at least you should, that going back to 1992, the Steelers are 23-0 at home on Monday Night Football including 12-0 under head coach Mike Tomlin (does not include the 2020 game against Washington when the game actually started at 5:00 PM ET and with no fans in the stands). Bring in Aaron Rodgers who is 12-2 straight up and 9-5 ATS when playing at home on Monday Night Football. He falls into a champion system as well as since 2003, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks are 38-17-2 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (386) Pittsburgh Steelers