Matt Fargo

This is a play on the KENTUCKY WILDCATS for our CBB Star Attraction. It is time for Kentucky to buckle down to put it kindly. The Wildcats came into the season with a No. 3 rating at KenPom and after a 9-6 start, they have dropped to No. 30 following a pair of losses against Alabama and Missouri. The last one against the Tigers was the worst of all of the losses as Missouri is No. 52 and it was in Lexington as all of the other defeats were in Quad 1 games with a three-point loss against North Carolina being the only one at home. With two road games on deck, now is the time. Mississippi St. is on a roll with six straight wins and that is a good thing for going against them as this is factored into the number which adds value the other way. The Bulldogs are 1-3 in Quad 1 games and while the one win was on the road at Texas, the Longhorns NET ranking is on the cusp at No. 74. Mississippi is on a 4-0 ATS run so it is fade time. 10* (804) Kentucky Wildcats

This is a play on the ILLINOIS ST. REDBIRDS for our CBB Late Annihilator. We used Illinois Chicago as our free play on Wednesday as it was at home and catching Southern Illinois at the right time with the Salukis coming off a buzzer-beating win against Belmont but now we fade the Flames as they are now the ones in a horrible spot. They are back on the road where they are 1-6 and while a few of the losses have been competitive, this is one of the best teams they have faced and that only win was against No. 353 Chicago St. and by only four points. Illinois St. is projected to win the Missouri Valley Conference and it is playing like it, with the exception of the last game. The Redbirds are coming off a loss at Valparaiso which was just their fourth loss of the season and are now 4-1 in the conference. They are back home in a bad mood where they are 7-0 with every win by double digits and by an average of 29.5 ppg. 10* (764) Illinois St. Redbirds

This is a play on the GEORGETOWN HOYAS for our CBB Rivalry Rout. Georgetown is coming off a road loss at DePaul to fall to 1-3 in the Big East Conference and it has been a rough stretch as after a 5-0 start, the Hoyas are 4-6 over their last 10 games. We backed them against the Blue Demons and they were within reach but faltered at the end and it has been horrible at the window as Georgetown is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games including a 0-4 ATS run which makes this the take opportunity in a buy low spot. Seton Hall is the biggest surprise in the conference and in a good way as it is 13-2 following a pair of wins over Marquette and Creighton to improve to 3-1 in the conference. The Pirates are back on the road where they are 3-0 and laying a manageable number but we know how that goes and coupled with the Hoyas contrarian angle, Seton Hall has Connecticut on deck in a 31-point home revenge game Tuesday. 10* (760) Georgetown Hoyas 

This is a play on the NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH for our ACC Game of the Month. Notre Dame has not played since last Friday when it went out to California for its two-game trip and after defeating Stanford in a 47-40 snail race, it lost a controversial game against California as it led 71-68 but got hit for a foul on a three-pointer and the Golden Bears turned the four-point play into a one point win. The Irish are back home where they were 7-0 before their last game at Purcell Pavilion which they lost to Purdue Fort Wayne by three points so they are double boiled over. Clemson is off to a 3-0 start in the ACC following a win over SMU which came after a pair of road wins at Pittsburgh and Syracuse which were close but they were able to cover and bring that 3-0 ATS run back on the road. Clemson has won six straight overall and is 10-2 in its last 12 games with the two losses against BYU and Alabama and they are a big public team here. 10* (758) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This is a play on the EASTERN WASHINGTON EAGLES for our CBB Late Contrarian Play. Eastern Washington teased us on Thursday as it trailed big late but came all the way back and had its chances to pull off the outright win but could not convert and lost by the hook to fall to 2-13 and we are back on the Eagles again. They have played a brutal schedule with 11 of its first 15 games away from home and the return home game against Montana St. was its seventh one or two possession or overtime defeat in those 12 games, five away from home. The Eagles are 2-2 at home, the other loss coming to Cal Baptist by five points. Montana is off to a 3-0 start in the Big Sky Conference following a win at Idaho and the Grizzlies are expected to be the team to beat in the conference for a second straight season. That being said, this line stinks as it is shorter than most would think but it’s a tough travel spot and has Montana St. on deck. 10* (738) Eastern Washington Eagles

This is a play on the CHATTANOOGA MOCS for our CBB Signature Enforcer. It has been a brutal start in the Southern Conference for Chattanooga as it has started 0-3 coming in as the preseason favorites looking to go back-to-back. The Mocs are 6-10 overall and have defeated no one of significance as their six wins have come against three non-Division I teams and three division I teams rated No. 359, No. 302 and No. 297 and they come in as a favorite and the line is telling. They have two big edges in free throw shooting and the Luck Rating factor. Samford improved to 2-1 in the conference with a home win over Western Carolina which makes it five wins in six games for the Bulldogs. Four of those wins were at home however and while they do come in 3-5 on the road, two of those wins were in overtime back in November against bad competition and the third came more recently on January 1st against No. 334 VMI. 10* (726) Chattanooga Mocs

This is a play on the TCU HORNED FROGS for our CBB Ultimate Underdog. This will be very anti-public as we are stepping in front of a freight train once again as we went against the Wildcats at Utah last Saturday and lost by the hook as Arizona won by 19 points for its second road win of the season. The Wildcats backed that up with a 25-point win against Kansas St. at home and now they are back on the road in a tricky spot and not because of what they are coming but what they have ahead and that is a game against rival Arizona St. on Wednesday in Tucson. TCU is coming off a brutal loss at Kansas on Tuesday as the Horned Frogs blew a late 15-point lead as the Jayhawks sent the game to overtime where they prevailed by four points. TCU returns home in bounce back mode and it will not be easy but the line is on our side and they know this is big not just because of the opponent but two tough road games on deck. 10* (710) TCU Horned Frogs

This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS for our CBB Early Annihilator. Georgia Southern continues to roll along as it is coming off a win at Old Dominion to make it nine straight wins which includes a 4-0 start in the Sun Belt Conference. Two of those wins were in overtime so the Eagles have been fortunate and they remain on the road where they are 5-3 and that includes four straight wins but two of those were against Gardner Webb and West Georgia, No. 358 and No. 292 respectively, and those four road victories were all short and now we fade the 5-0 ATS run. South Alabama has been off for a week following a 10-point loss at Troy to fall to 2-2 in the conference and the Jaguars are back home where they have played only four of their 16 games so the schedule has been brutal in that regard. They are 3-1 in those four games with the loss coming against north Texas by one point and they are favored for a reason. 10* (748) South Alabama Jaguars

This is a play on the TEXAS ST. BOBCATS for our CBB Letdown Fadeaway. We were on Arkansas St. on Wednesday as it was playing with double revenge against Troy from taking away a regular season championship and then a trip to the NCAA Tournament and it laid it on the Trojans and now it is letdown time. The Red Wolves are 3-1 with the loss coming at home against James Madison in the previous game which was a lookahead and we have a similar spot in addition to the letdown as they have South Alabama and Troy on deck. We were also on Texas St. in its last game and it was a brutal loss as the Bobcats were covering throughout but the game ended up going to overtime and they ended up getting outscored 15-5 and failed to cover as the underdog. The Bobcats are now catching an enormous number as no one wants to back this team as they are on a 0-9 ATS skid but this is now the prime spot to take them. 10* (677) Texas St. Bobcats

This is a play on the GEORGIA BULLDOGS for our CBB Bounceback Baller. South Carolina is coming off an upset at LSU which I am sure many did not see coming as of their nine wins prior to that, six of the Gamecocks wins were against teams with ratings between No. 295 and No. 360. The Gamecocks are back home where they are 9-2 with the nine wins coming against no one, the best win being against Southern Mississippi and that took overtime and coming off that win puts them in a bad spot and the other side scenario does not help either. Georgia had a seven-game winning streak snapped against Florida on the road Tuesday and that was just the second loss of the season for the Bulldogs, the first coming against Clemson in overtime on a neutral floor in Charleston and with Mississippi on deck, full focus will be here. Georgia is on a 0-5 ATS skid and that puts them in the auto play portal for Saturday. 10* (659) Georgia Bulldogs

This is a play on the TOWSON TIGERS for our CBB Early Enforcer. Towson is coming off a loss as it got thumped at home against Hofstra to fall to 0-4 in the Coastal Athletic Association. Towson won the CAA regular season title last season but got bounced in the conference tournament and the Tigers are expected to contend again and they had better get going. They are back on the road where they are 0-6 with two losses coming in the conference against William & Mary and Hampton by one point and the other against a good James Madison team and the final three Houston, UCF and Kansas. And now Towson is favored which is the indicator. Northeastern is typically a middle of the pack team but this season was picked to finish near the bottom of the conference and it is 1-3 in the conference beating only North Carolina A&T and 5-10 overall with the only home win against No. 260 Central Connecticut St. 10* (651) Towson Tigers

This is a play on the RHOSE ISLAND RAMS for our CBB Contrarian Crusher. After a 9-4 start that included three losses against top 75 teams, Rhode Island went into Atlantic Ten Conference action with some confidence but evaporated quickly as the Rams have gotten off to a 0-3 start. A loss at George Mason was expected but that was sandwiched in-between home losses against Loyola-Chicago and LaSalle where they were big favorites so this has not been ideal. Going back, Rhode Island is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games so it is a take and it is catching points for just the third time, the first two against much more difficult opponents. Davidson opened the conference season with an overtime loss against Duquesne but then went on the road and defeated St. Joseph’s and Loyola-Chicago to post a 2-1 record. The Wildcats are just 6-3 at home with three wins against teams rated No 300 or higher as well as a non-Division I win. 10* (647) Rhode Island Rams

This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our CBB Early Ultimate Dog. LSU is coming off a home loss against South Carolina as a 7.5-point favorite which was its second straight loss in as many games in the SEC and the schedule does not get any easier with the Commodores and then Kentucky on deck. The Tigers are 1-1 on the road with the win coming in Boston College in overtime in a tough travel spot and the loss came against the Aggies by three points a week ago and now catching a huge number. Vanderbilt continues to roll along at 15-0 as it is coming off a home win over Alabama and with a game at Texas on deck, this is a sleepy spot and while the Commodores have some big margin wins, of their eight games against teams in the top 100, only four have been by more than what they are laying here. They are on a 4-0 ATS run which puts them in auto fade if the spot is right and this spot certainly is. 10* (629) LSU Tigers 

This is a play on the COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS for our CBB Rivalry Rout. This is an early season revenge game as Appalachian St. won the first meeting at home by 18 points on December 18th and now it is payback time for Coastal Carolina, not only for that embarrassment but to just get right overall. The Chanticleers were on the road for all six of their games in December and finally got back home but have lost all three on this four-game homestand, two coming by five points combined, and they were favorites in all of those and because of the slide, the number is short. Appalachian St. has been on a decent roll as it has won six of eight games and has opened 3-2 in the Sun Belt Conference. This is their fourth straight road game after going 2-1 in the first two and the Mountaineers were fortunate last game as Georgia St. shot 33 percent. They are dead last in the country in free throw shooting at 60.5 percent. 10* (620) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

This is a play on the INDIANA HOOSIERS for our CBB Afternoon Dominator. Nebraska continues to surprise as it is now 15-0 which includes a 4-0 record in the Big Ten Conference following a win at Ohio St. on Monday. The Huskers own a pair of big conference wins as they took out Michigan St. by two points at home and more impressively, they won at Illinois by three points back in mid-December. Three of the four wins have been by a combined eight points and this sort of winning has given them a top 25 Luck Rating and they remain on the road and facing another tough environment. Indiana remains in the top 30 in the NET Rankings as it has won four straight games and sits 3-1 in the conference. The three losses have all been away from home with two of those against Louisville and Kentucky the loss at Minnesota was the first road game of the season. The Hoosiers are back in Bloomington where they are a perfect 10-0. 10* (604) Indiana Hoosiers

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. The Packers enter this game as a slight favorite despite coming in on a four-game losing streak but that comes with an asterisk as they rested starters last week, making health more important than momentum and we buy into that decision. One big health issue is the return of tackle Zach Tom who has been out since Week 15. That will help Jordan Love who is fully healthy and comes in ranked No. 2 in Quarterback EPA/Play (Caleb Williams No. 13) and the Packers rely on explosives which is what the Bears defense loves to allow and they will have a big edge. Chicago was one of the luckiest teams this season, or the Bears optimists will call it clutch, but they became the first team in NFL history to win six games when trailing in the final two minutes in the fourth quarter. Quarterbacks make a difference in the postseason and while this is an understatement, it has been dominated by experience. Quarterbacks that are making their first playoff start going up against a quarterback with playoff experience are 20-40 straight up and 20-39-1 ATS and it makes little difference in home/road splits as those inexperienced quarterbacks at home are 12-21 both straight up and against the number. This season, the Packers are 0-6-1 ATS when catching the majority of the money and 6-3 ATS when their opponent is the public side and as of Thursday afternoon, Chicago is getting 71 percent of the money and that is not going to flip when the real public money comes pouring in on the Bears. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after one or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 27-8 (77.1 percent) since 2021. 10* (377) Green Bay Packers