Free NFL Picks

For my best free pick here on Sunday in the NFL I am looking at the Houston Texans at the KC Chiefs. KC is on life support right now and while I do not think they lose this game winning and covering are two different things. Texans come in red hot winners of 4 straight games and they get Stroud back at QB which is an upgrade over Mills. This has 2 point game written all over it as points should be tough to come by in what I see as a battle of field goals. Look for KC to walk this off late and win by a point or 2. 

Play on the Houston Texans plus the points rotation #143

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1* NFL - Texans/Chiefs FREE PICK on Texans +4

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Texans/Chiefs UNDER 42

Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans are dead nuts UNDER teams.  Both teams feel like this is a must-win game in terms of making the playoffs and it will be played close to the vest as a result.  And both teams are much further ahead defensively than they are on offense coming into this one.

The Texans are 9-3 UNDER in all games this season finishing with 42 or fewer combined points in nine of their 12 games.  They have the best defense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring defense at 16.5 points per game, 1st in total defense at 265.7 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per play.  They rank at or near the top of the NFL in almost every advanced metric as well.

The Chiefs are 8-4 UNDER in all games this season.  They have gone for 41 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in six of their 12 games.  They are also led by a defense that ranks 7th in scoring at 19.3 points per game and 9th in total defense at 306.7 yards per game.  What makes those numbers even more impressive is the fact that they have played one of the toughest schedules of opposing offenses.

The Chiefs are going to be without three starters on the offensive line in this game in LT Justin Simmons, RT Jawaan Taylor and RG Trey Smith.  Patrick Mahomes is going to be under duress the entire game against the best defensive line in the NFL.  The Chiefs run a methodical offense, and they are one of the worst red zone offenses in the league consistently settling for field goals after long, time-consuming drives.

The Texans are healthy on the offensive line, but it's one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.  I don't see CJ Stroud and company hanging a big number on this Kansas City defense, either.  This Houston offense also consistently bogs down in the red zone and settles for field goals.  In fact, the Texans rank 31st in red zone TD percentage at 43.6%.

The Chiefs beat the Texans 23-14 for just 37 combined points in the playoffs last year.  The Texans actually held the Chiefs to just 212 total yards in that playoff game.  These teams also met in the regular season last December.  That familiarity will favor the defenses in the rematch here.

The forecast also favors the UNDER.  Temps will be in the 20's in Kansas City Sunday night with double-digit wind gusts, and the Texans are a dome team that isn't used to the elements.  Houston is 21-10 UNDER in its last 31 games played on a grass field.  The Chiefs are 27-12 UNDER in their last 39 games played on a grass field, and 18-7 UNDER in their last 25 home games.  The Chiefs are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight regular season games after allowing 30-plus points last game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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1* Free Pick on Texans/Chiefs: under 41½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

Ricky's 1* play on HOU.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Houston is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.

- Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games played in week 14.

- Houston is 6-1 in its last 7 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference

Verdict: The value is on the Road Underdog.

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1* Free Pick on Eagles/Chargers under 42

3* on over