Free MLB Baseball Picks

Dave's Friday Free Play:

1* on Baltimore Orioles +135

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Baltimore Orioles as road underdogs to the Texas Rangers.  The Rangers have gone just 2-6 in their last 8 games overall with both wins coming against the struggling Giants.  They have scored 3 runs or fewer in 5 of their 6 losses, and 2 runs or fewer 4 times.  Now they must face Shane Baz, who has yielded only 3 ER in 16 2/3 innings in his last 3 starts despite facing some very tough competition in the Red Sox, Braves and Phillies.  Nathan Eovaldi is 10-9 with a 4.31 ERA in 21 starts this year while yielding 24 HR.  Eovaldi yielded 6 ER in 4 innings of a 8-3 loss to the Orioles in his only start against them in 2026.  He is 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last 3 starts against them while yielding 12 ER and 4 HR in 14 innings.  Take Baltimore.

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1* Free Pick on Angels +137

Friday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Royals +155

I like the Texas side here, but the strongest case is situational and roster-based rather than pretending Nathan Eovaldi has the better recent pitching form. Baltimore starter Shane Baz has actually pitched well lately. The Rangers still have several meaningful edges that make the favorite supportable at roughly -145 to -147.

1. Texas gets a major rest/travel advantage

Texas was off Thursday after beating San Francisco 6-0 Wednesday, giving the Rangers a full day to reset their pitching staff. Baltimore played Thursday afternoon at home, lost 4-1 to the Angels, then had to travel to Arlington for Friday night's series opener. The Rangers have also won two straight after snapping their six-game skid.

That matters particularly for the bullpens. Texas enters with its entire bullpen essentially available after the off day, and its relief corps has produced a 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season.

2. Baltimore's offense has become much less imposing

The Orioles have scored two runs or fewer in five of their last 10 games, including only one run Thursday. More importantly, they just traded away two significant offensive pieces at the deadline: Adley Rutschman and Taylor Ward.

Outside reporting confirms Baltimore was effectively selling at the deadline despite still being mathematically alive in the wild-card race. The deadline makeover substantially changes what this lineup looks like compared with the club Eovaldi faced earlier this year. (Reddit)

That is particularly relevant because this isn't a runaway mismatch in the standings: Baltimore is 56-59 and Texas 57-58. (theScore) The price is therefore saying more about today's matchup circumstances than merely the teams' records.

3. Eovaldi is substantially better at Globe Life Field

This may be the most useful pitching split.

At home in 2026, Eovaldi is:

5-2 | 4.14 ERA | 1.06 WHIP | .267 opponent OBP

On the road, Shane Baz is:

1-6 | 4.01 ERA | 1.26 WHIP

Eovaldi's ERA doesn't jump off the page, but that 1.06 home WHIP and .267 OBP allowed show considerably better underlying traffic suppression at Globe Life than his overall 4.31 ERA suggests.

The broader Texas starting staff also owns the better opponent profile: a .242 batting average, .304 OBP and 1.24 WHIP, compared with Baltimore starters at .265/.331/1.38.

4. Baz has pitched well — but Baltimore hasn't rewarded him

This is where the handicap gets interesting.

Baz has a 2.63 ERA over his last five starts, yet Baltimore went only 1-4 in those games. He allowed Philadelphia only one earned run over 6⅓ innings Saturday and still lost 5-0.

He hasn't won a start in nearly two months.

So I'm not fading Baz because he's pitching poorly. Quite the opposite: the Orioles have demonstrated an inability to convert even good Baz starts into wins. With the offense now diminished further following the deadline, that is meaningful for a moneyline handicap.

5. Eovaldi has a legitimate track record against Baltimore

Eovaldi's last start was ugly — six runs in five innings against Houston — and he carries a 5.73 ERA over his last four starts. That is the biggest statistical objection to Texas.

But historically, Baltimore has been a favorable matchup: 9-4 with a 3.79 ERA in 21 career starts against the Orioles entering tonight. The current Baltimore lineup is also weaker than the one that tagged him for six runs April 1.

This is therefore also a reasonable bounce-back spot for a veteran pitcher coming home against a depleted lineup.

6. The price is consistent across the market

The pasted matchup had Texas around -141 to -145, while other current sources were showing roughly -142 this morning. (Sportsgrid)

At -147, Texas needs to win about 59.5% of the time to break even. That's not cheap, but we're also not paying -180 or -200 for a roughly .500 team. The price remains within a reasonable range given the rest, venue, roster and motivational advantages.

7. Your system and outsourced information provide independent confirmation

The quantitative angle adds another layer: favorites coming off a loss as a favorite under the qualifying parameters applicable here are +79.66 units. As you note, once one of your historical systems approaches the 80-unit level, it becomes substantially more interesting as evidence of long-term persistence rather than a short-term run.

Then there is the separate outsourced pick: one of your most trusted organic sources independently likes Texas. I would present that as confirmation rather than the primary handicap—the measurable matchup factors already point in the same direction.

Bottom Line: RANGERS -147

This isn't primarily an Eovaldi-over-Baz wager. Baz's recent pitching has actually been better.

It's Texas because the Rangers are rested at home with a fresh bullpen, while Baltimore played Thursday, traveled to Texas, has scored two or fewer in five of its last 10 and just stripped meaningful offense from its roster. Eovaldi's 5-2 home record, 1.06 WHIP and .267 OBP allowed at Globe Life are considerably more attractive than his overall ERA, while Baz is just 1-6 on the road despite respectable pitching numbers.

Add the +79.66-unit system, the trusted outsourced opinion and Texas' urgent wild-card position, and there are enough independent pieces pointing the same way.

BET: TEXAS RANGERS -147

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White Sox rookie starting pitcher Noah Schultz has a high ceiling. But so far he has not proven ready for the big leagues with a 3-8 record, a 5.82 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 13 starts.

Schultz draws the start here against maybe the most underrated pitcher in the American League - Cleveland's Parker Messick, who is 8-6 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 22 starts this season.

Messick's numbers go down even more to a 2.20 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 10 road starts. He has a 1.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 18 2/3 career innings against the White Sox.

Cleveland has the better bullpen and its top relievers are rested.

The spot isn't good for the White Sox either as they return home following a crazy 12-11 road loss to the Red Sox last night. The game lasted four hours.

The Guardians upgraded their offense at the trade deadline. Jose Ramirez is back in the lineup and good-looking rookie Chase DeLauter has been hot. 

1* Free Pick on Marlins -153

[1%] Free Play on Rangers under 8 -108

Jack's Free Pick Friday: St. Louis Cardinals -150

The St. Louis Cardinals are still very much alive in the NL Wild card just 3.5 games out.  They took three of their final four games on their road trip against the Blue Jays and Yankees.  They had yesterday off to regroup, and now they have a chance to really gain some ground with the lowly Colorado Rockies coming to town.

The Rockies were swept at home by the Rays last series to fall to 45-70 on the season with the worst record in the National League.  Pitching has been their biggest issue with a terrible rotation and a one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.96 ERA.  Colorado is allowing 5.8 runs per game.

Ryan Feltner is part of that terrible rotation.  He is 4-5 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in six road starts.  He has allowed 21 earned runs and 8 homers in 17 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 10.70 ERA during this stretch.

Kyle Leahy is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 7-4 with a 3.44 ERA in 21 starts this season while allowing just 12 homers.  Leahy has been at his best at home, going 3-3 with a 2.95 ERA in 11 home starts while allowing just 2 homers in 55 innings.  Bet the Cardinals Friday.

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1* MLB - Orioles/Rangers FREE PICK on Rangers -146

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Astros/Padres OVER 8

Two of the hottest offenses in the majors go head-to-head in this Interleague series between the Astros and Padres.  The Padres have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 7 games.  The Astros have scored at least 4 runs in 12 of their last 15 games.  I expect both teams to score at least 4 runs tonight.  Ronel Blanco is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in three starts for the Astros this season while giving up 12 earned runs and 5 home runs in 14 2/3 innings.  Robbie Ray will feel the pressure of making his first start for the Padres after getting traded from the Giants.  Most of these starters that have been traded have flopped in their first starts and are dealing with distractions and fatigue.  Ray has given up 13 earned runs and 6 home runs in 10 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Houston.  Give me the OVER.

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Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Friday 8-7-26

Cincinnati @ Washington  (6:45 PM EST)
Play On:  Washington -107

The Cincinnati Reds travel to Washington to take on the Nationals on Friday night.  Cincinnati is 56-58 SU overall this year while Washington comes in with a 56-61 SU overall record on the season.  Washington is 7-1 last 2 years revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 8 runs or more.  Cade Cavalli is 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA over the past month.  Washington is 5-1 last 6 games at home vs Cincinnati.  We'll recommend a small play on Washington tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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1* Free Sharp Play on A's vs Red Sox over 9 +105

My selection is on Minnesota over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

The Twins snapped their four-game losing streak with a win in Kansas City last night. I think the price is right to back them on Friday as they open a tough series against the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Brewers are at risk of a letdown here after taking three straight games to close out their series against the division-rival Pirates. The starting pitching edge isn't quite as pronounced as the price indicates in my opinion as Milwaukee sends Shane Drohan against Zebby Matthews. I liked what the Twins did to bolster their bullpen before the trade deadline and that 'pen is in pretty good shape entering the opener of this series. Milwaukee's 'pen has been terrific but is depth-shy and has two key arms that are likely unavailable for this contest after working the last two games. Take Minnesota (8*).

Cubs vs Royals MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Chicago Cubs hit the road to Kansas City riding a crisp four-game winning streak, and they draw a prime matchup to extend their run. Left-hander Daniel Lynch IV (4-2, 1.96 ERA) gets the nod for Kansas City, but despite his microscopic 1.96 ERA across 46 relief-heavy appearances, the Cubs represent a brutal test for him. Chicago has crushed southpaws all season long, posting a stellar 21-11 record and a +24% ROI when facing a left-handed starting pitcher or primary opener.

 The Cubs send recently acquired veteran righty Kevin Gausman (5-10, 4.38 ERA) to the hill. Gausman's win-loss record is largely a byproduct of poor run support during his time in Toronto, but his underlying metrics remain relatively sharp. 

 The Bet: Cubs -1½ (3%). 

1% GOLD RUSH on Mets +127

3* on Marlins

PSP Data Driven 1* Padres.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The Padres has won 5 of their last 7 games. The Padres has won 5 of their last 6 home games.