It’s the middle of the week with 15 games including Yankees/Braves doubleheader on the baseball betting card for today. Plenty of value to be looked at.
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We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Aaron Nola’s last start, but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Nola did not pitch well against the Braves last time out, failing to make it out of the third inning.
That, however, doesn’t change the fact that he has pitched well so far this season, with his strikeouts per nine innings way up and his walks way down compared to a year ago. He’s also allowing fewer hits per nine innings.
Home runs allowed have been a bit of an issue but he’s never been a pitcher that gives up a ton of long balls so I expect him to get it sorted in due time.
Patrick Corbin has finished top-11 or better in N.L. Cy Young voting in each of the last two seasons and while his overall numbers aren’t great so far this year in Washington, it is worth noting that his walks per nine innings are way down while his strikeouts are almost on par.
I do expect to see him settle in as the season progresses and perform well in this matchup.
Take the Under (8*).
We are getting the Chicago Cubs at a great price today as short favorites over the Detroit Tigers. Look for the Cubs to bounce back and take this series from the Tigers after losing yesterday.
Michael Fulmer is 0-0 with a 9.52 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in 4 starts for the Tigers this year while averaging just 2.8 innings per start. He had already yielded 6 homers and 12 earned runs in only 11 1/3 innings.
Jon Lester is 12-0 after giving up 5 or more runs in 2 straight outings lifetime. He’ll get right against Detroit today.
The Seattle Mariners have quietly gone 5-1 in their last six games overall while averaging 6.0 runs per game. They have gotten their offense going, and they have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 4 runs or less.
I’ll take a shot with the hot Mariners and Taijuan Walker as more than +200 dogs today. Walker is 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in five starts this season. He is also 3-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.593 WHIP in five career starts against San Diego.
I believe Dinelson Lamet is being overvalued here after posting some great numbers in the early going in 2020. He is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in six starts. But three of those starts have come against the light-hitting Diamondbacks, plus the Giants, Rangers and Dodgers.
San Diego is 3-14 in its last 17 home games off a loss by four runs or more.
The Padres are 9-23 in their last 32 games vs. a starter with less than a 1.15 WHIP.
Bet the Mariners Wednesday.
Both the Rockies and Diamondbacks should break out of their funks at the plate tonight.
Robbie Ray is 1-3 with an 8.33 ERA in six starts for the Diamondbacks.
Jon Gray is 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA in six starts for the Rockies. Gray is 3-6 with a 6.22 ERA in 12 previous starts against Arizona. He gave up 8 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Diamondbacks on August 10th.
Ray is 5-5 with a 5.58 ERA in 18 previous starts against Colorado. He gave up 6 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings opposite Gray in that August 10th game.
Give me the OVER.
I see no reason not to back the Dodgers on the -1.5 run line tonight. LA is 11-4 on the road this season with 9 of those 11 wins coming by at least 2 runs. With the way this team can score, winning by at least 2 runs is really not asking a lot.
Not only are they great offensively, they got one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Today they will throw out ace Clayton Kershaw, who has absolutely owned the Giants.
In 48 career starts against SF, Kershaw owns a ridiculous 1.80 ERA and 0.876 WHIP. He’s 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 4 starts so far in 2020 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.559 WHIP in road starts.
Kevin Gausman will start for the Giants. He’s been striking out a lot of guys, but still has a 5.00 ERA over 5 starts. He was great against LA a few starts back, holding them to 1 run on 3 hits in 6 1/3.
Some might see that as a positive. Not me. I think LA’s offense will be ready for him this time around.
Give me the Dodgers -1.5 (-135)