Free MLB Baseball Picks

1* Free Pick on Rockies +120

The Rockies are sitting in a massive value spot as home underdogs this afternoon. Getting plus money on Colorado in their own building is a sharp play that the market is overlooking.

Cincinnati is heading into this matchup with a pitching staff that is struggling to keep the ball on the ground. Their starters have been living at the top of the strike zone far too often lately.

That approach is a recipe for disaster when the ball is carrying in this environment. Their collective FIP is significantly higher than their ERA, which shows they have been getting lucky on deep fly balls.

That luck likely ends today against a Rockies lineup that ranks in the top ten for home slugging percentage. Colorado’s offense is finally healthy and finding a consistent rhythm at the plate.

They are hitting nearly .280 against right-handed pitching over their last ten games. Cincinnati is handing the ball to a righty who has major issues with his command and walk rate.

You cannot afford to fall behind in the count and put free runners on base against this lineup. The Reds' bullpen is also in a rough spot after heavy usage over the last 48 hours.

They used three of their primary high-leverage arms in back-to-back games leading into this matchup. If the starter gets chased early, Cincinnati doesn’t have the fresh arms available to stabilize the game.

Colorado has the situational edge and the much better offensive splits for this specific matchup. The market is giving too much credit to a road team that is currently overvalued and tired.

We are taking the better price with the home bats in a game where the pitching match favors the underdog.

Bet Rockies ML (+120).

I have a full card of eight premium selections available for today's action across MLB, NBA, and college basketball. These plays are backed by the same disciplined research found in my free analysis. You can find my complete board of premium releases by visiting my handicapper profile.

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