Free Sports Picks of the Day

Dave's Thursday Free Play:

1* on Rockies/Giants OVER 7

The Key: This is a pretty low total for these 2 starting pitchers tonight.  Kyle Freeland is 0-4 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 6 starts this year.  Justin Verlander is 0-2 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 6 starts this year.  The Giants have gone 19-12 OVER in all games this year thanks to an improved offense that is putting up 4.6 RPG.  Freeland yielded 6 ER in 4 innings of an 11-4 loss to the Giants in his last start against them, which came in San Francisco.  Verlander yielded 6 ER in 5 innings in his last start against the Rockies.  Take the OVER.

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Betting the Maple Leafs to advance in the Stanley Cup hasn't been the brightest thing to do. Toronto has failed to accomplish that in 13 of its last 14 playoff series.

The Maple Leafs could choke away another series if they don't close out Ottawa here. The Maple Leafs won the first three games, but have lost two in a row after getting blanked at home, 4-0, two days ago.

A seventh game, if needed, would be played in Toronto on Saturday. I wouldn't trust the Maple Leafs in that game given their history. Funny, though, because I trust them in this spot where they are road underdogs.

The Senators scored two empty-netters and had a short-handed goal in their, 4-0, victory on Tuesday. Maple Leafs' first-year coach Craig Berube ripped into his top line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies following the game.

It's my belief Berube got through to those stars and his team. I don't feel it's a leap of faith to believe the Maple Leafs will come out fired up after that embarrassing home loss and play much better. They are the superior team. So history be damned. Toronto takes care of business here.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 6-2 on his Stanley Cup plays, including three plus-price winners. Stephen has an NHL totals play today along with this free selection. He's also 12-5 on his last 17 NBA plays and has a Thursday NBA play.)

1* Free Play on Abraham Bably -110

Thursday's MLB Free Pick

PLAY ON: Los Angeles Angels +106

1* FREE INFO PLAY Chelsea -295

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Nationals/Phillies OVER 10

Two starting pitchers I'm looking to fade go tonight in Game 4 of this series between the Nationals and Phillies, who also happen to have the two worst bullpens in baseball to this point.  Brad Lord is 0-3 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in four starts for the Nationals this season.  Taijuan Walker went 3-7 with a 7.10 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in 15 starts for the Phillies last season.  He has a 2.78 ERA in five starts this season, but he's clearly due some regression as he has been fortunate not to allow more earned runs with a 1.37 WHIP and putting a lot of runners on base.  Give me the OVER.

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Nuggets vs Clippers 
5-Unit bet on the UNDER currently priced at 212.5 points 

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 61-29 Under Playoff record for 68% winning bets since 2002. The requirements are: •Bet the Under in game 6 or 7 of an NBA Playoff series. •The home team has won between 50 and 80% of their games in the current season. •The total is at least 10 points lower than the NBA season total average, which is 227 points. If the total is more than 20 points lower than the NBA season total average, then the Under has gone 11-3 for 79% winning bets. If the home team is favored the Under is 9-2 for 82% winning bets. 

Ricky's 1 play on DEN.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games against LA Clippers.

- LA Clippers is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games played in May.

- Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games.

Verdict: The value is on the Road Underdog.

(#958) Philadelphia Phillies // MONEYLINE //. 

Brad Lord (0-3, 4.67 ERA) vs. Taijuan Walker (1-2, 2.78 ERA) . 

While the Nationals have failed to capitalize in either of the first two games of this series, I don't believe that they will have much success in the final game of the series as well. Brad Lord gets the nod and he's yet to record a win in his rookie campaign. Yes, it's difficult to win with a young team in behind you. But, it doesn't help that he's allowing so many baserunners. Lord has yet to go more than four and a third of an inning and the Phillies have eaten Washington's bullpen alive so far this season. On the other hand, Taijuan Walker actually has great stats despite his losing record. I believe that he'll get his record back to .500 this evening when the Phillies complete the three-game sweep. They have the much better lineup and will be dangerous against Lord who already faced PHI this season and failed to get a single out. Give me PHI. 

Score Prediction: 6-2 Phillies.

 Game 6s have seen visitors as  dominating sides in the post season in the past  – Road teams in NBA first round Game 6s are 27-16 SU and 30-13 ATS  the L/ 12 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.Road teams looking to close out a series in Game 6 of the first round are 19-8 SUATS in their last 27 opportunities for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Knicks offense is the difference maker tonight in key game with the Pistons. Im betting Pistons  lack of consistency in key junctures of this tilt as has been evident in the overall series will continue . 

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