Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Yankees -139

1* Bet on Golden State Valkyries/Sparks: over 169½

Ricky's 1* play on Under.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Total has gone under in 4 of the White Sox last 7 home games.

- The Under is 5-3 in the Guardians last 8 road games.

- The Total has gone under 3 of the White Sox last 5 home head to head meetings.

Verdict: Runs should be hard to come by in this game.

Recommended Bet: PFC Ludogorets Razgrad -143

Unlike other sports, baseball does not lend itself to situational type handicapping with a 6-month daily grind.

But unusual circumstances can pop up. Like this one.

The Cubs are good-sized road favorites here. I understand why. Chicago is 19 games better than Kansas City. Cubs starter lefty Matthew Boyd has been extremely reliable with a 7-1 record and 3.59 ERA.

But the Cubs also will be playing for the 17th straight day and 22nd time in the last 23 days. This day game matchup is going to be played in oppressive heat with temperatures in the low 100s.

Not until Monday will the Cubs finally get an off day. They may just wilt before then. 

The Royals beat the Cubs by three runs on Saturday. They are going with Randy Dobnak, who is 2-0 with a 1.16 ERA in 31 innings.

Kansas City is 3-2 since superstar Bobby Witt returned from the injured list. The Royals rank 8th in batting average against lefties.

So at this plus price, I'll toss a peanut on the Royals.

1* Free Pick on Cubs -152

3* on Nationals

1* FREE INFO PLAY Orioles vs Rangers under 8½ -108

Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Sunday 8-9-26

LA Dodgers @ Arizona  (4:10 PM EST)
Play On:  Arizona +131

The Los Angeles Dodgers take on the Diamondbacks in Arizona on Sunday afternoon.  The Dodgers are 70-47 SU overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 62-56 SU overall record on the season.  The Dodgers are 9-14 over the past month and 1-5 over the past week.  Arizona is 24-14 this year against division opponents.  Arizona is 18-9 this year against left handed starters.  Arizona is 17-9 over the past month.  Arizona is 6-0 this year as an underdog of +125 to +175.  Arizona is 5-0 last 5 games when their opponents allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  We'll recommend a small play on Arizona today!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocky Atkinson has a TOP 8* MLB BEST BET for Sunday. Rocketman cashed last night with Tampa Bay in MLB!  Rocketman is now on a RED HOT 80% run in MLB!  Don't miss out!

1* Free Sharp Play on Astros +115

MASSIVE WNBA WEST CONF. TOTAL OF THE YEAR HEADLINES along with MLB. Leagues Cup Soccer Comp play below.  The Sunday Comp play is on the Chicago Fire in Leagues Cup Soccer action at 8 eastern. Chicago comes off a solid home win over Necaxa 2-0 in a game that really could have been worse as they dictated play with Ball control and generated solid chances. Tonight they take on Santos Laguna who was a 2-0 loser to NYFC. Chicago has the best player on the field in Robert Lewandowski and he will likely put a ton of pressure on the Laguna back line. Laguna has last the last 4 and has scored once in the last 3 games overall. Look for Chicago to get the win here. GL Rob V- 

Washington Mystics -1.5 against the Phoenix Mercury is the number that keeps jumping off the page for me today.

Washington is rolling. They’re 18-12 overall, 10-6 at home, and they’ve won six straight. That streak includes beating the Aces, the Sun, the Wings twice, and the Dream, all while covering like it was their job. They’re 7-0 against the spread in their last seven, 5-0 ATS in their last five at home, and 5-0 ATS against Western Conference teams in their last five. When a club is covering at a 62 percent clip on the season (18-11 ATS), and the number is only a point and a half, you start leaning in.

The defense is the real story. They’re giving up just 82.9 points a night, second-best in the league, and they’re cleaning the glass at a league-high 37.5 rebounds per game. Shakira Austin has been a wrecking ball inside, averaging 9.6 boards and turning in double-digit rebound nights like it’s automatic. At home they score about 84.4 points compared to 78.4 on the road. That six-point home bump is real, and it shows up when you’re only laying a short number.

Phoenix is 12-21 and 7-11 on the road. They’re allowing 87.2 points a game and just dropped two straight, including a close one at Connecticut. Their season ATS mark sits at a lukewarm 14-18, and they’ve had trouble keeping things competitive against teams that actually know how to win. The math is pretty straightforward. Washington’s defensive efficiency plus the home-court edge creates a margin that fits cleanly with a 1.5-point spread. Phoenix averages around 82.3 points on the road. That’s not exactly lighting it up.

These two have traded wins over the years, but the current form gap is hard to ignore. Washington’s recent point differential has been positive almost every night of this streak, and the rebounding edge alone (often plus-six or better) keeps possessions alive and second-chance points flowing. A team playing this kind of defense and covering this consistently at home doesn’t usually fail to cash a short number against a sub-.400 road club.

I like the way the numbers stack up here. The trends are clean, the home edge is real, and the short spread gives just enough breathing room. This is the one I’m riding with today.

My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

We had our 'under' bet foiled by a Pirates breakout offensively last night. I don't expect a similar story to unfold in Sunday's series finale. Humidity is expected to drop throughout the day at PNC Park and I think that lends itself to reasonably pitcher-friendly conditions. Sean Manaea will start for New York. He's been more than just a serviceable left-handed starter lately, holding his last three opponents to two earned runs or less over six innings. The Mets bullpen figures to have most hands on deck after Xzavion Curry did yeoman's work in long relief of an ineffective Robert Stock last night. Jared Jones counters for Pittsburgh on Sunday. He owns a 3.82 FIP and 1.11 WHIP on the season and will face a Mets lineup that was in line for some regression and we certainly saw that last night. The Buccos bullpen is in fine shape with its higher-leverage arms available thanks to last night's lopsided result. Take the under (8*).

Blue Jays vs Phillies Free Pick

The Angle(s): Toronto enters in a classic letdown spot after taking the first two games of the set. The Blue Jays send right-hander Shane Bieber (8-6, 4.12 ERA) to the mound, and while Bieber has shown improvement in recent outings, he is still navigating a overall down campaign by his standards and remains prone to traffic on the basepaths. While Bieter gave up just one run over 5 2/3 innings last time out, it was on nine hits and two walks, so it could've been a lot worse. 

The Phillies counter with electric left-hander Jesús Luzardo (10-5, 3.15 ERA), who comes in in peak form. Luzardo has been dominant over his recent starts, missing bats at a high rate and racking up Ks. That creates a major situational advantage for Philadelphia, as the Blue Jays have struggled against left-handed pitching, dropping five of their last six games when facing a southpaw starter. Expect a desperate Phillies team to bounce back with authority and cover the runline.

The Bet: Phillies -1½ (3%). 

Following a 3-0 SWEEP Friday, an untimely 0-2 Saturday followed, but today Mike bounces back BIG to end the week in style. 

Mike has a multi-pick pack including his 4% MLB TOP PLAY of the Day and 3 picks in total, and is available at a huge discount compared to the value of the single game packages! Don't sleep on this STEAL!

1% GOLD RUSH on Thiago Agustin Tirante +3½

The strongest argument starts with the number itself. After Toronto and Philadelphia combined for 9 runs Friday and 12 runs Saturday, the market is still dealing only 8.5 for Sunday’s finale. ESPN confirms the current total at 8.5. (ESPN) Your Covers data likewise shows Friday finishing 5-4 against 7.5 and Saturday 7-5 against 9.5. That fits the premise behind the +450.78-unit historical UNDER angle: instead of reacting to the recent scoring, we are listening to what the oddsmakers are telling us with today's comparatively restrained number.

Jesús Luzardo is the biggest fundamental reason

Luzardo's overall 3.36 ERA is good, but his current form is considerably better. MLB's official preview says the Phillies left-hander has a 1.98 ERA over his last 10 outings, and he enters Sunday after throwing eight scoreless innings against Washington. (MLB.com)

The supplied numbers strengthen that case. Luzardo has gone UNDER in five of his last six starts, allowing:

0 ER in 8 IP vs. Washington

1 ER in 7 IP vs. the Yankees

1 ER in 5 IP vs. the Mets

0 ER in 7 IP at Cincinnati

1 ER in 6 IP at Kansas City

His lone ugly outing during that stretch was six earned at Miami. Otherwise, we're talking about three earned runs across 33 innings in those other five starts. That's dominant run prevention.

Bieber's headline ERA disguises improving form

Shane Bieber's 5.11 season ERA is the obvious concern for an UNDER, but it's badly distorted by a couple of blowups. More relevant is what he's doing now. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts, including 5⅔ innings of one-run baseball at Houston his last time out. 

His last five starts have produced four UNDERS, with Toronto's games finishing 3-1, 3-1, 1-0 and 5-3 in those four UNDER results. The Covers matchup data puts Bieber at a 3.00 ERA over his last five.

There is also at least a small matchup precedent: Bieber's only career appearance against Philadelphia was 7⅓ innings, two runs allowed, a 5-2 final that stayed UNDER 9.

Strikeout potential helps the UNDER

Luzardo has 164 strikeouts in 136⅔ innings, and his recent game log includes outings of 7, 9, 7, 11 and 9 strikeouts. (MLB.com) Swing-and-miss stuff matters here because it reduces balls in play, advancement opportunities and the kind of multi-run innings necessary to beat 8.5.

Bieber isn't generating strikeouts at vintage levels, but his recent run prevention has improved considerably. The matchup therefore doesn't require both starters to dominate; Luzardo carrying six or seven quality innings while Bieber keeps Philadelphia reasonably contained creates a very viable UNDER script.

The market signal matters even more after two OVERS

This is arguably the most interesting feature of the handicap. Anyone looking solely at this series sees:

Friday: Toronto 5, Philadelphia 4 — OVER 7.5
Saturday: Toronto 7, Philadelphia 5 — OVER 9.5

Yet Sunday's number sits at 8.5.

That is precisely where the "use the oddsmakers' knowledge against them" concept comes into play. The obvious recent-results narrative screams OVER; the market hasn't responded by hanging 9.5 or 10. Instead, we're being asked to play OVER a substantially lower threshold with Luzardo pitching. That's the sort of apparent disconnect the +450.78-unit system is designed to exploit.

What keeps this from being flawless

There are legitimate OVER concerns. Citizens Bank Park is hitter-friendly, and Philadelphia is hot Sunday afternoon—around 90-92°F during the game window. Also, Philadelphia's bullpen has been vulnerable recently; Saturday's defeat was another example of the relief corps surrendering a late lead. (Reuters)

Those factors are worth acknowledging rather than forcing every statistic to fit the pick.

Bottom line

BLUE JAYS–PHILLIES UNDER 8.5

The foundation is the +450.78-unit historical line-comparison system, but today's matchup supplies legitimate baseball support. Luzardo has a 1.98 ERA across his last 10 outings, just threw eight shutout innings, and has been one of baseball's better starters recently. Bieber's season ERA is misleading relative to his current form: 3.00 over his last five with four UNDERS, while allowing one run or fewer in three of his last four. (MLB.com)

Most importantly, after consecutive 9- and 12-run games, the sportsbook is still hanging only 8.5. That's the oddsmaker signal. Rather than chase what just happened, the numbers say today's pitching matchup has a very different profile.

Projected scoring range: approximately 6–8 runs.

Best bet: Blue Jays–Phillies UNDER 8.5.

WISE GUY MONEYLINE STRIKE

Joe Duffy is a REMARKABLE 52-27, +28.64 units on MLB moneylines. Wise Guy sides are 12-6, +8.19 units, fueled by plenty of dog winners.

Today’s Wise Guy is another POWERFUL dog/small-favorite release. STRONG VALUE. PROVEN RESULTS.