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1* Free Pick on Paddy Pimblett +130

1* Free Play on Paddy Pimblett +130

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Sunday card has the 100% MLB Pre Break Game of the Year a WNBA Platinum Supreme move and the Mens Wimbledon Top Total- Comp Play below

The Sunday Comp play is on Viking at 1:15 eastern in Norwegian Elitserien League Play. Vikings are the defending Champs ans are 2nd in the League Standings just 1 point out. They are on a 9 match win streak and travel to take on a Sarpsborg 08 team that is off back to back wins but sit 7th in the Standings. They are off a pair of home wins after a slow start but face a big litmus test here against a Viking team that is unbeaten here on the road in the last 7 matches. Sarpsborg 08 has not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 10 league matches and will try to keep up with a Viking team that generates chances with a solid strikers and they will likely score multiple goals here. Look for Viking to emerge with the win. GL Rob V-

I have been grinding these cards for years now, and nothing lights me up quite like a rematch where the guy who got finished last time has spent the better part of a decade turning himself into a completely different animal, that is exactly what we have on the main card of UFC 329 tonight when Cory Sandhagen meets Mario Bautista again. Sandhagen still sits as a modest favorite, somewhere in the -135 to -150 range depending on where you look, which puts Bautista out there at a savory +110 to +135. I am taking the dog every single time at those numbers, and I want to walk you through the math, the history, and the angles that make this one of the cleaner underdog spots on a stacked International Fight Week card.

First, the rematch tax, historical UFC rematch data shows the original winner repeats roughly 62 to 67 percent of the time overall, that sounds bad for Bautista until you dig into the pricing. When the first-fight loser is getting plus money in the rematch, and especially when that first fight was a quick finish rather than a dominant decision, the original dog cashes at a higher rate than the implied probability. Sandhagen needed just three minutes and thirty-one seconds to snatch an armbar on a young Bautista back in January 2019, both men making their UFC debuts. That was seven years ago. Bautista has gone 10-1 since, the only loss a competitive decision to Umar Nurmagomedov. The math on that kind of gap is simple, Experience gained equals fights completed times skill differential plus camps refined. Bautista has stacked roughly a decade of high-level reps while Sandhagen’s recent body of work has a glaring pattern.

Sandhagen’s striking numbers remain elite for the division, he lands 4.86 significant strikes per minute at 45 percent accuracy while absorbing only 3.47, good for a positive differential of plus 1.39. His switch-stance creativity still makes him a nightmare for pure boxers. Yet his takedown defense sits at a soft 56 percent, and the last two times he faced genuine high-level pressure wrestlers, Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov, he dropped unanimous decisions. In those five-round wars he was out-wrestled badly, absorbing volume while spending long stretches on his back. Bautista’s own numbers tell a different story, he lands 5.30 significant strikes per minute at 48 percent accuracy, a higher volume and slightly cleaner accuracy than Sandhagen, while averaging 1.91 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 38 percent accuracy. That is a 66 percent higher takedown rate. His submission average of 0.8 per fifteen minutes dwarfs Sandhagen’s 0.2. Bautista is a black belt under John Crouch at MMA Lab, and seven of his seventeen professional wins have come by submission.

Here is the simple expected value equation I run on spots like this, assume a conservative true win probability for Bautista of 48 percent based on the stylistic collision and recent form. At plus 120 that implies an EV of 0.48 times 2.20 minus 0.52 times 1 equals plus 0.056, or roughly plus 5.6 percent edge. Even if you shave him down to 45 percent true probability you are still in positive territory at the current prices. The public loves Sandhagen’s highlight-reel kicks and the memory of that first-round armbar, so the line has not fully adjusted for the fact that Bautista has evolved into a high-pace grappler who chains wrestling into back takes and rear-naked chokes.

Recent form adds another layer, Bautista just submitted Vinicius Oliveira in the second round with a rear-naked choke after controlling the mat. Before that he out-pointed Patchy Mix and took a split decision from the legendary Jose Aldo. Sandhagen’s last three include a title-fight loss to Merab where he was taken down twenty times and a five-round decision loss to Umar. His one win in that stretch came against a fading Deiveson Figueiredo who suffered a knee injury. The pace differential is real. Bautista’s average fight time sits around ten minutes while Sandhagen’s is closer to fourteen minutes forty seconds. In three-round fights that favors the guy who can force early scrambles and drain the gas tank with constant level changes.

I care about this one because I have watched Bautista quietly climb the ranks without the same hype machine, he is the kind of fighter who shows up prepared, does the dirty work, and forces elite guys into ugly fights. Sandhagen is still dangerous, no question, and if he keeps this standing for fifteen minutes his volume and creativity could steal rounds. But the math on the wrestling mismatch, the rematch experience gap, and the plus-money pricing all point the same direction. Mario Bautista is not just a live underdog, he is the value play of the night for anyone who likes their edges clean and their math honest.

Quick thoughts on the rest of this stacked card, Max Holloway looks solid in the main event against a rusty Conor McGregor coming off a five-year layoff, the volume and durability edge is just too much to ignore even if Conor lands something early. Paddy Pimblett at plus money has real upset appeal against Benoit Saint Denis, his grappling could slow down the Frenchman in a fun scrap. King Green versus Terrance McKinney is pure chaos, lean McKinney early but Green late for live betting value. Robert Whittaker making his light heavyweight debut against Nikita Krylov is tricky, Whittaker’s experience gives him the nod but Krylov’s size makes him live at plus prices. The early prelims have some fireworks potential with guys like Zach Reese and Ryan Gandra, expect quick finishes there. Overall this card has that perfect mix of star power and underdog opportunities, lock in Bautista and enjoy the show, fight week in Vegas never disappoints.