Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Wild -102

1* Free Pick on Chargers/Rams under 45½

Recommended Bet: Ath Bilbao +115

3* on Colts

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Cincinnati Bengals -12.5

The Cincinnati Bengals have played a brutal schedule and have gotten through it at 5-2.  They are coming off a 35-13 road win over the Baltimore Ravens off their bye week.  They came out of their bye as healthy as they have been all season and showed what they were capable of in the 2H.  They didn't have any key injuries in that game, and they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.

We knew what this Cincinnati offense was capable of, and they showed it with 35 points in the 2H against the Ravens alone.  But the exciting part about the Bengals is just how improved they are defensively.  They are particularly strong along the front seven.  They are allowing just 20.3 points per game this season.

The Tennessee Titans showed they were going to be sellers at the deadline by trading away one of the best defensive lineman in the NFL in Jeffrey Simmons to the Chicago Bears.  And things have gone from bad to worse as they are without their best playmaker on offense in WR Carnell Tate this week.  Tyjae Spears is out and Calvin Ridley is questionable.

After getting blown out 26-3 by the Texans while being held to 187 yards of offense three weeks ago, the Titans have come back with two very concerning efforts that were also both misleading in their favor.  They beat the Colts 26-20 despite being held to 186 total yards and getting outgained by 213 yards two weeks ago.  They only lost 27-24 to the Browns despite giving up 491 yards and getting outgained by 169 yards and 2.3 yards per play last week.

To give up 491 yards to one of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Browns last week tells you everything you need to know about how poor this defense is.  The offense has struggled all season ranking 31st in scoring at 15.4 points per game, 32nd in total offense at 248.6 yards per game and 31st at 4.7 yards per play.  Tate was the lone bright spot on this offense with 34 receptions for 413 yards, which is more than double the yardage of the next-best receiver.  Cam Ward will be even more lost without him this week.

The Bengals are going to score at will in this game.  They can pretty much name their number against this struggling Tennessee defense that simply doesn't have much talent.  I don't see Ward being able to put up enough points against this improved Cincinnati defense to stay within two touchdowns in this one.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

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1* Free Pick on Raiders +1½ -105

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Vikings +3.5

Good to: Under 43.5 at −115.

Two profitable league-wide systems support the Under, each addressing how the posted total compares with previous scoring expectations.

The first identifies regular-season home games with totals no higher than 53 in which the teams’ combined season scoring and points-allowed averages exceed twice the posted total by at least 2.9 points, subject to additional situational exclusions. Despite that apparent offensive support, qualifying games have gone 1,745-1,381-67 to the Under, earning 225.9 units. Atlanta–Tampa Bay qualifies.

The second identifies games from Week 6 onward with totals below 46.5 when a qualifying team’s previous four posted totals averaged at least 47.5. It also excludes situations in which the teams’ previous games combined to finish too far below their totals. That angle is 248-148-8 to the Under, producing 85.2 units and a 19.6% ROI. The lower current total has historically been more informative than the higher expectations surrounding those teams’ recent games.

Tampa Bay’s personnel situation adds support. Emeka Egbuka’s absence removes a receiving option, while right tackle Luke Goedeke’s questionable status creates a potential protection problem. Additional blocking help from a tight end or running back would leave fewer receivers immediately available in routes and could encourage shorter throws.

The Buccaneers have also demonstrated an ability to control possession through their ground game. Their earlier victory over Dallas included 241 rushing yards and more than 39 minutes of possession. Sustained rushing drives would reduce opportunities for both offenses, particularly if Tampa Bay establishes a lead.

The supplied market moved from 46.5 to 43.5, so some value has already disappeared. At 43.5, however, the two qualifying historical angles and Tampa Bay’s receiving and protection concerns still support the Under.

1* NFL - Browns/Steelers FREE PICK on Browns +3.5

1* Free Pick on Ravens/Bills: over 54½

The Baltimore Ravens visit Highmark Stadium on Sunday to face the Buffalo Bills in a premier AFC matchup featuring two elite offensive units.

Baltimore enters at 4-3 overall with a 3-1 record on the road this season. Quarterback Lamar Jackson returns under center after missing three games with an ankle injury, instantly raising the ceiling for this offense. His presence unlocks an explosive unit that already features Derrick Henry, who has 579 rushing yards and 8 overall touchdowns, and Zay Flowers, who leads the team with 608 receiving yards.

Buffalo comes in at 5-1 overall and rests up after a Week 7 bye. The extra prep time gives Josh Allen and the Bills offense every opportunity to execute at a high level on home turf. In their meeting in Buffalo last season, these two teams produced a wild 41-40 shootout that went down to the final seconds.

Both squads have proven they can move the ball quickly and score in bunches. With Jackson back in rhythm for Baltimore and Buffalo fully rested at home, all the ingredients are in place for a fast-paced game with plenty of scoring drives.

Give me the Over 54.5 (-105) in the Ravens at Bills game.

While this free pick gives you a solid edge today, my highest-value plays are always reserved for my premium card. I have seven top-rated selections locked in across today's college football and NFL slates. Visit my profile page to view today's complete premium package.

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Detroit Lions -3

The Key: The Detroit Lions are getting healthier on defense now and will be better equipped to get some stops moving forward.  They are off to a good start holding the Green Bay Packers to 17 points last week at home.  The biggest guy they got back in the secondary was their leader in Brian Branch.  They have a strong front 7 that has been flying under the radar because they had such a poor secondary prior.  The Vikings have scored a total of 10 offensive touchdowns on the season and are 6-0.  Even with Kyler Murray in the lineup they managed just 15 points at home against the Dolphins and 16 points at home against the Colts.  Those are 2 poor defenses too.  The Vikings have benefited from playing a soft schedule of opposing offenses.  That won't be the case here against the Lions, who have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL.  Jared Goff has thrived against the blitz throughout his career.  Jordan Love had 387 passing yards against the Vikings and is easily the best QB they have seen to this point.  This is the game the fraudulent Vikings finally suffer their first defeat.  Take Detroit.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY CS U Craiova -295

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Los Angeles Chargers +6.5

The Los Angeles Chargers are a winless team coming off a bye which has been a very profitable subset over the years.  We saw the Dolphins beat the Jets outright in this spot last week.  Winless teams off a bye are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 tries.  And there's reason to believe this will be the best version of the Chargers we have seen all season.  They are so much healthier coming out of this bye getting back key guys like LT Joe Alt, WR McConkey and WR Harris.  That should help Justin Herbert have one of his best games.  They have a great defense giving up 330 yards per game against a tough schedule.  The Rams are the team with the injuries piling up now.  They are without WR Adams, LB Garrett, DE Turnver and NT Ford.  CB McDuffie is questionable as well.  They actually lost their last two home games outright to the Bills as 3.5-point favorites and to the Cardinals as 12.5-point favorites.  There will be no home-field advantage in this game with these teams sharing a stadium.  Teams with a rest advantage are 23-8 SU & 22-8-1 ATS this season.  Give me the Chargers.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Bills -3 -110

Sunday card has the 21-0 NFL Non Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR Headlining along with a TOP RED ZONE Side, Sunday night Football NBA and more. Early NFL Comp play below

The NFL Comp play for Sunday is on the Las Vegas Raiders plus the point against the Jets. The Raiders are fading fast at 3-4 and on a 4 game losing streak. Rob notes that week 8 teams that started 3-0 and have not won since have covered every time since 2000. The Raiders draw the Jets who lost here to the winless Dolphins last week and who have a coach that is unsure which teams gets the ball coming out of the half and when to decline a penalty on 3rd down. The Jets are banged up on the defensive front and are also fading fast. Look for the Raiders to get this one. GL Rob V-

Jacksonville is rested, at home, and facing a Colts team that is falling apart. The Jaguars are 10-point favorites Sunday at 10:00 a.m. PT at EverBank Stadium on CBS, coming off a bye for their first true home game in over a month, while Indianapolis arrives on a three-game losing streak after managing just 218 yards in a 16-10 loss at Minnesota. Trevor Lawrence has 14 touchdown passes against four interceptions, while Daniel Jones has seven interceptions against four touchdowns, and Jacksonville's defense has already picked off seven passes. With Colts corner Justin Walley out and Indianapolis having already traded away veterans, Jacksonville should pull away late. 

Jim’s Free Play: 250. Jaguars

Browns +3.5

The Browns are worth a free move on Sunday against the Steelers. It's a battle for first place in the AFC North and the Browns come in with all the confidence. They defeated the Steelers earlier this season in Cleveland and they have seen a revived Deshaun Watson at QB. He continues to lead game winning drives and the defense is up for the task against this Steelers offense. They caused a lot of issues for Aaron Rodgers earlier this year and they're going to blitz him all night long. With the offense of Cleveland far more threatening now, they have a chance to make life miserable Sunday for Pittsburgh. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the BROWNS +3.5. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

The current run has been strong. A BIG 5× Play Card is up for SUNDAY, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

The Patriots enter Sunday’s matchup at Hard Rock Stadium at 4-3, averaging 22.9 points per game while allowing 20.4. Miami stands at 1-5, scoring 16.3 while allowing 26.2. Both sides have already shown stretches of competence, and a 7-point road number against a bottom-tier offense is not a tax when the favorite holds the clearer path through efficiency and the opponent has already given up volume. The market has not priced a blowout. The short number is the work.

New England generates looks through Drake Maye’s primary creation and secondary options that have already converted at an efficient rate. They control the ball on the ground in spots and force the defense into coverage when the run game is established. Miami’s early metrics place them near the bottom of the league on both sides of the ball. Their run game (Ollie Gordon) has produced relative volume, but the overall efficiency has not kept pace. The challenge for the Dolphins is containing a primary creator who can score at multiple levels while also generating open looks for the secondary options. Miami’s defensive rating has already allowed points in bunches, and the sample against sustained creation remains limited.

Player-to-player, the gap favors New England. Maye is averaging 254.9 passing yards per game with 13 touchdowns and an efficiency edge (96.4 rating, 8.3 yards per attempt). He has already produced multiple high-volume outings, including 374 yards and four touchdowns against Las Vegas. Malik Willis has been inconsistent (176.2 yards per game, 4 touchdowns, 77.1 rating) and has taken volume in sacks. Rhamondre Stevenson provides New England with a consistent ground option that forces the defense to account for both the run and the play-action. Gordon gives Miami a relative strength on the ground, but the secondary options have not yet converted at a rate that matches the Patriots’ efficiency. When the primary creator draws attention, New England’s secondary targets have already shown they can finish. Miami has not yet limited a balanced attack at this level for a full game.

Road favorites of 7 points or fewer facing an opponent ranked 25th or worse in points scored have covered at a 28-16 rate (63.6%) since the early 2010s. At even money, 28 wins and 16 losses equates to +12.0 units and a 27.3% ROI. The average margin in those situations has been +8.1 points. Efficiency against a soft front has been the decisive factor.

Teams averaging 20 or more points per game with a defensive rating inside the top 15 have covered as road favorites of 7 or fewer at a 25-15 rate (62.5%) when facing an opponent outside the top 20 in points scored. At even money, that record is +10.0 units and a 25.0% ROI. The short number has been the cleaner side when the favorite holds the usage edge and the opponent’s early metrics have not yet been tested against sustained secondary creation.

The 7-point line does not require the Patriots to dominate. It requires them to avoid a late collapse in a game the market has framed as competitive. A move to 7.5 or higher significantly reduces the value. Shop the lower number if it is available. Starter confirmation is advised before kickoff, particularly with any late injury developments on either side. Any significant limitation on the primary creator or a major rotation shift can alter the cover probability. The short road number remains the position.

My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Buccaneers exploded for 43 points in last week's rout of the Panthers but that performance had more to do with a litany of Carolina mistakes and injury attrition on its defense than anything else. I still think this is a limited Tampa Bay offense, even with QB Baker Mayfield back at the helm. Defensively, the Bucs can hang. We saw that even when they were losing their first four games to open the season. Meanwhile, the Falcons have an underrated defense that just held San Francisco to 20 points in last week's 'upset' victory. In this familiar matchup on the road, I expect Atlanta's defense to hold up well. Even in home games where the Bucs did have Mayfield earlier in the season they still averaged just 5.3 and 4.2 yards per play against Cleveland and Minnesota. Take the under (8*).

Vikings vs Lions NFL Free Pick

The Angle(s): The unbeaten Minnesota Vikings are getting points against a team they've beaten outright twice as big underdogs last season, and I think the market is still underrating them. Brian Flores' defense has been the best in football, allowing a league-low 12.3 points per game and sitting tied for the league lead in sacks.

The Detroit Lions' defense is allowing 27.5 points per game. Minnesota is also perfect on the road this season and has covered seven of its last 10 road games. In a divisional game that should come down to a field goal, I'll take the points with the better defense.

The Bet: Vikings ATS (3%). 

Ricky's 1* play on KC.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Chiefs are 5-1 in their last 6 games.

- The Chiefs are 6-4 in the last 10 head to head meetings.

- The Chiefs are 3-1 in their last 4 road games.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

Marc David's NFL Free Pick

We really like home favorite in this matchup. The Eagles (2-5) have lost five straight and look like a team falling apart. Jalen Hurts is on IR, leaving Tanner McKee under center, and the receiving corps being gutted doesn't help. The defense just gave up 38 at home to Dallas, and their pass rush ranks near the bottom of the league with only eight sacks all season.

The Commanders (1-4-1) come in rested off their bye and desperate to save their season, with a chance to avenge a 24-22 Week 1 loss in Philadelphia. A rested, motivated home team with the edge at quarterback against a banged-up Eagles group that can't cover sets up for Washington to win comfortably under the lights.

This is a FREE PLAY on the COMMANDERS ATS. 

1% GOLD RUSH on Broncos +1½

PSP Data Driven 1* Bucs.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The Falcons are 1-3 in their last 4 games. The Bucs are 3-1 in their last 4 games.