Free Sports Picks of the Day

Sunday's MLB Free Pick 

PLAY ON: Cubs -134

Under 48.5 in Buffalo. That’s the one I want and recommending to all of you.

Thursday night, Albany is on the road at a MAC team that went 5-7 last year and scored 24 a game. Buffalo is laying 24 and a half. They should win. They do not need a 35-burger to get it done. The books hanging 48.5 already told you this is supposed to stay small. Week 1, first Thursday, rust, backups late. That’s punts. Not a track meet.

Albany already played. They beat New Hampshire 28-14 and the under cashed at 46.5. Last season they averaged 16.3 points. That’s two scores and a kick if everything is clean. They are not walking into Broadview and hanging 28. Buffalo scored 24 a night in 2025 and allowed 23.5. Close games. Ugly games. Not 50-point games.

Shop 48 if you can get it. Don’t wait around for 47 and watch the number leave.

Simple way to look at it: if each team puts up 21, you are already home.

That’s under 48.5 with six points to spare. Twenty-one is three scores. Asking for 49 in an opener with a three-touchdown spread is a lot. Buffalo 28, Albany 14 is 42. Buffalo 31, Albany 10 is 41. The over needs a leftover touchdown and a special-teams mistake. Week 1 does not give those away as often as people think.

Add last year’s averages and you get the same picture.

That’s eight points under the number before you even tax it for September rust.

Buffalo is a big favorite because Albany is FCS and on the road in Week 1, not because this is about to be 45-17. If the Bulls cover and it finishes 31-7, the under still cashes. Spread and total are different tickets. Take the one that pays when the night stays quiet.

A few spots that keep showing up in this look:

Bet under the total in Albany games as a road underdog.
The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 5-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 51.5. (+5.0 units, ROI = 90.9%)

Bet under the total in Buffalo home games when the number is 50 or lower.
The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 6-2 (75%) with an average over/under of 48.8. (+3.6 units, ROI ≈ 45%)

Bet under in Week 1 MAC home games against FCS when the total is 50 or lower.
The Under’s record the last two seasons: 7-2 (77.8%) with an average over/under of 49.1. (+4.4 units, ROI ≈ 49%)

Bet under when Albany plays an FBS team and the number is 52 or lower.
The Under’s record since 2025: 4-1 (80%) with an average over/under of 50.2. (+2.6 units, ROI ≈ 52%)

Grab 48.5. If a shop is still at 49, that’s fine too. I would not start on Buffalo −24.5 when the total is the cleaner number. Check the wind off the lake closer to kick. Keep the unit small. It’s still the first week. People are generally in the dark so the books play it safe, the lines might be tilted . This one that looks a little crooked and a viable early season bet.

Under 48.5, Albany at Buffalo. That’s the play.

My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Sunday.

Bettors are lining up to fade the Redblacks on a weekly basis now and you can't really blame them as Ottawa remains winless on the season and has dropped the cash in four straight games. We'll grab the points with the Redblacks here, however, as they return home for the first and only time this month and face a Lions team that's feeling really good about itself off four straight wins and a season-high two-game ATS winning streak. B.C. will play in Ottawa on Sunday and then have a quick turn-around as it faces a much tougher matchup in Montreal on Friday. Look for Ottawa to finally put forth a competitive effort in this the first meeting between these two teams this season. Take Ottawa (8*).

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Reds vs Cubs MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Chicago Cubs crossed home plate no fewer than 17 times yesterday. They also hung 19 runs on the Mariners in Seattle last Sunday, and they've scored seven runs or more in four of their last seven games.

Cincinnati righty Chase Burns (14-3, 2.77 ERA) has had a stellar season, but the Giants tagged him with five runs in just 3 2/3 innings last time out. Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga (8-9, 3.78 ERA) has had his ups and downs, and the wind will reportedly work in our favor, so I expect to see runs at Wrigley Field this Sunday.

The Bet: Over (3%). 

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For my best free pick of the day for Sunday I am looking at the Portland Fire hosting the Golden State Valkyries. Not much movement here up for down for Golden State they just need to get through the remainder of the games with their healthy in tact. Fire has been a good cover team down the stretch covering 7 of the last 9 games. This line seems a tad light to me as the books seem to beg for Golden State action. Well I am not gonna give it to them. 

Play on the Portland Fire plus the points rotation #626 Fire +5.5

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