Free Sports Picks of the Day

Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer has 222 career victories. He may not get another one.

Scherzer, who turned 42 today, is set to make his first big league start since June 10 having dealt with back and thumb issues since then.

The three-time Cy Young Award winner is 1-4 this season with a 10.23 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and has only 14 strikeouts in 22 innings.

So, yes, sadly I would say Scherzer is washed up. The Nationals are just the team to put an exclamation point to that.

Washington leads the majors in runs, homers, steals and OPS. CJ Abrams is first in RBI's and James Wood is fifth in homers with 30 of which 20 have come at home.

The Nationals are two games above .500. The Blue Jays have been a major disappointment with a 48-58 record. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit only six home runs and Toronto is the lowest scoring team in the league averaging 3.9 runs per game.

So this isn't a high bar for Andrew Alvarez, who has been the Nationals' second or third best pitcher. Alvarez has a 4.22 ERA, but has better metrics than what his ERA is. He is averaging 9.3 strikeouts and 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings.

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Monday three winner: Cincinnati Reds.

Game 972.

4:10 PM PST/7:10 PM EST.

Yes, it’s true, the Cincinnati Reds sit in last place in the National League Central, 16-5-games back, possessing one of the worst overall records in the N.L., at 49-55. It is also true the Cleveland Guardians are sitting in second place in the American League Central, 2.5-games back, at 54-53. It is also true the Guardians have taken two of three meetings so far in 2026 against the Reds. However, baseball is a very streaky sport. Right now, Cleveland is sliding while Cincinnati is starting to find their legs. The Guardians have dropped five in a row, being outscored by a combined, 28-10 during that span. Meanwhile, the Reds have won four of their last five with a combination of solid hitting and very strong pitching. Prior to this season, Cincinnati had gotten a better of Cleveland, taking five of the previous six matchups, all played between May and June last season. In my opinion, with a big difference in this matchup giving the home team a big edge is the starting pitchers. The Guardians will send Slade Cecconi to the hill while the Reds give Chase Burns the nod. The Cleveland right-hander is just 4-7 with a 4.60 ERA on the campaign, as he has seen his ERA skyrocket over his last three outings, going 0-1 with a 7.42 ERA. Over his career, Cecconi has struggled against Cincinnati, going winless at 0-3 with a 4.05 ERA. The Reds right-hander has been superb this season, earning a 12-1 record with a very respectable ERA of 2.42. Remarkably, the team has won his last seven turns, and 11 of his last 12 outings. At home this season has been nearly unbeatable, sporting a 6-1 mark with a 2.32 ERA. As I mentioned a moment ago, I feel the big difference in this matchup is the starting pitchers. I’m gonna’ stick with that and take the Cincinnati Reds. Thank you.

1* Free Play on Giants +126

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-107)

Two teams headed in opposite directions square off in this series between the Red Sox and A's.  The Red Sox have gone 17-2 in their last 19 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in 14 of those 19 games.  They should win this game by multiple runs tonight.

The A's are 4-19 in their last 23 games overall and have been held to 2 runs or fewer in 12 of those 23 games.  The injuries just keep piling up for them as they are now without All-Star C Shea Langeliers, who tore his meniscus yesterday and will likely miss the rest of the season.

The Red Sox have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Payton Tolle, who is 5-6 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in seven road starts.  He is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball with Boston having a 3.05 ERA overall and a 2.91 ERA on the road.

Jack Perkins is 2-5 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 25 games this season for the A's, which includes seven starts.  He has allowed 47 earned runs and 11 homers in 62 2/3 innings.  Like many of these A's pitchers, he has been at his worst at home going 1-2 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.56 WHIP while allowing 28 earned runs in 34 innings.  The A's have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.55 ERA on the season and a 7.01 ERA at home.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Monday.

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1* MLB - Brewers/Giants FREE PICK on Giants +123

Dave's Monday Free Play:

1* on Yankees/White Sox OVER 8.5

The Key: With temperatures in the 80's and 15 MPH winds blowing out to left in Chicago tonight runs should be plentiful between the White Sox and Yankees.  Max Fried will be making his 2nd start back from injury and only threw 57 pitches in his 1st start.  The Yankees will need to utilize their bullpen early in this contest.  The White Sox continue to send Noah Schultz to the wolves despite his struggles this season.  He is 3-7 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 12 starts this year while yielding 38 ER in 56 2/3 innings.  He is 1-4 with a 7.77 ERA in his last 5 starts while not making it past the 5th inning in any of those 5 starts.  Take the OVER.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Brewers/Giants OVER 8.5

With double-digit winds blowing out to center in San Francisco tonight there should be plenty of runs to top this 8.5-run total.  Brandon Sproat is 3-5 with a 5.09 ERA in 19 games for the Brewers this season, 17 of those which have been starts.  Tyler Mahle is 2-9 with a 5.31 ERA in 16 starts for the Giants this season.  The Brewers are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season.  The Giants scored a total of 19 runs in their three games with the Angels at home over the weekend.  They have scored at least 3 runs in 18 of their last 20 games.  Give me the OVER.

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Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Monday 7-27-26

NY Yankees @ Chicago White Sox  (7:40 PM EST)
Play On:  NY Yankees -141

The New York Yankees travel to Chicago to take on the White Sox on Monday night.  The Yankees are 59-46 SU overall this year while the White Sox comes in with a 55-49 SU overall record on the season.  The Yankees are 33-23 on the road this year including 6-1 last 7.  Max Fried is 4-3 with a 2.97 ERA overall this year while Noah Schultz is 3-7 with a 6.04 ERA overall this season.  Fried is 11-0 in his career against AL Central division opponents.  Fried is 4-1 with a 1.87 ERA this year when pitching at night.  The Yankees are 13-3 overall in this series the past 3 years.  The White Sox are 1-5 last 6 games at home vs the Yankees.  We'll recommend a small play on the NY Yankees tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocketman is passing with premium picks on Monday!  Check back on Tuesday!

The Soccer comp play is on Atletico Atlanta at 7 eastern at home over Almagro in Primeira B Nacional league Action. Atlanta is at home and plays with revenge after getting shut out by Almagro on the road last month. They have solid current for with 4 wins and 2 draws of late. Atlanta will likely control Possession and get the better of the scoring chances here. The series has always been tight with very little scoring. Look for a close home win for Atlanta here tonight. GL Rob V-

Monday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: White Sox +131 

My selection is on Milwaukee over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday.

While the price is pretty much in line with where I expected it to settle, I do think it could be even higher in favor of the Brewers in this series opener. Milwaukee was stunned in the first of its three-game set against the Rockies on Friday but bounced back nicely on the weekend, delivering consecutive blowout wins. I'm confident we'll see the Brewers keep it rolling into San Francisco, where the Giants are coming off a 4-3 loss to the Angels yesterday. Brandon Sproat will take the ball for Milwaukee. He's not a household name by any means and has labored through his last couple of outings. I think he was caught trying to do too much last time out as the Brewers provided him no run support at all. Note that Sproat has been better on the road than at home this season, logging a 4.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP compared to a 5.98 ERA and 1.57 WHIP at home. The Giants rank 23rd in the majors in home wOBA this season. They'll hand the ball to Tyler Mahle. While it looks like he has turned things around over his last few starts, keep in mind those came against the Rockies (twice) and the Royals. The Giants have still lost three of his last four and eight of his last 11 outings. Mahle will have his hands full with a Brewers club that ranks seventh in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Take Milwaukee (8*).

AAA Sports' Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (ML).

Milwaukee will start Brandon Sproat -- His statistics aren't great. But, he's been pitching consistently well for the L2 months now.

The Brewers are 7-2 over their L9 games and have been great all year long with a 66-39 record.

They are also 21-10 in road games this year versus opponents within the National League.

San Francisco will start Tyler Mahle -- He is 2-9 this season and has a very inflated earned run average.

The Giants are just 33-42 this season when playing against opponents within the NL.

We're on Milwaukee.

Blue Jays vs Nationals MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): Toronto's 42-year-old veteran right-hander Max Scherzer (1-4, 10.23 ERA) actually turns 42 today (it's his real birthday!) but there's no gift in this matchup. He's making his first start off the injured list, so this isn't just a decline story, it's a rusty veteran coming off a six-week layoff. His last two outings before landing on the IL were brutal, as he served up five homers between those two starts alone, pushing his season total to nine allowed in just 22 innings. 

Nationals lefty Andrew Alvarez (2-3, 4.22 ERA) isn't spotless either, but this is a favorable matchup as the Blue Jays are hitting just .218 with a .653 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, among the worst marks in the majors. 

The Bet: Nationals (3%). 

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1% GOLD RUSH on Stefano Tsitsipas +115

FREE PLAY on Angels -101

PSP Data Driven 1* Red Sox.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Boston are 9-0 SU in its last 9 games on the road. Athletics are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home.

Toronto is not the safer-looking side, but at +119, the Blue Jays are the value side. That price requires only a 45.7% win rate to break even, and several matchup indicators suggest this game is considerably closer than Washington’s better record implies.

Massive Luck Gap favors Toronto

The strongest foundation is the 11.88-game Luck Gap:

Toronto luck rating: -5.72

Washington luck rating: +6.16

Difference: 11.88 games

Under the Luck Gap methodology, Toronto is the play because it has substantially underperformed its underlying results while Washington has meaningfully overperformed. This does not guarantee immediate regression, but an 11.88-game difference is well above the required eight-game threshold and makes the underdog price particularly attractive.

The bullpen matchup strongly favors Toronto

This is the most important conventional advantage because Max Scherzer is expected to work under some restriction in his return from the injured list.

The numbers supplied show Toronto’s available bullpen with a 2.78 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, compared with Washington’s available relievers at a 4.78 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. That is a full 2.00-run ERA advantage and a 0.30 WHIP advantage for Toronto.

Independent bullpen rankings also list Toronto eighth in MLB with a 3.78 relief ERA, while Washington is 27th at 5.24. Toronto has two especially dependable leverage arms in Louis Varland, carrying a 1.04 ERA, and Tyler Rogers at 1.54. (InsidethePen)

That edge is why the full-game moneyline is more appealing than a first-five wager. Even a serviceable four-inning return from Scherzer allows Toronto to transition to the superior portion of its pitching staff.

Scherzer may be better than his ugly season line

There is no disguising Scherzer’s 2026 major-league results: 1-4 with a 10.23 ERA. However, that backward-looking ERA may overstate his present condition.

In his final rehabilitation appearance, Scherzer threw five hitless innings with seven strikeouts, allowing only one runner to reach on an error. He threw 40 of 56 pitches for strikes and reportedly satisfied Toronto’s requirements for activation. Toronto may limit his pitch count, but that is less damaging when backed by the superior bullpen. (Reuters)

Scherzer also has a major motivational and familiarity angle: he returns on his 42nd birthday to face the organization with which he won two Cy Young Awards and the 2019 World Series. That is not a statistical edge by itself, but his sharp rehab performance provides tangible evidence that the layoff may have helped him reset.

Andrew Alvarez is not a dominant favorite

Washington starter Andrew Alvarez has a respectable 4.22 ERA, but his recent form has deteriorated:

5.84 ERA over his last three appearances

4.99 home ERA

1.40 home WHIP

No quality starts this season

Seven walks over his last three appearances

He has completed more than 4⅔ innings only once in his last seven starts. That creates an early path into Washington’s weak bullpen.

The market is asking bettors to lay approximately -130 to -135 behind a starter who has recently struggled, rarely provides length and is supported by one of baseball’s lowest-ranked relief units. Current market listings have Toronto around +111 to +119, making the Blue Jays’ side preferable from a risk-versus-reward standpoint. (Action Network)

Washington’s home record is a warning sign

Washington owns the better overall record, but it is only 22-32 at Nationals Park. Its success has been heavily road-driven, with a 32-20 away record.

That distinction matters because Washington is being priced as a home favorite despite winning only about 41% of its home games. Toronto is 22-28 away, so this is not a strong road club, but Washington has not demonstrated that Nationals Park deserves a meaningful home-field premium. (Action Network)

Washington may be at a short-term emotional and offensive peak

The Nationals are coming off a dramatic 10-7 victory in which CJ Abrams and James Wood each homered twice. Washington’s offense is unquestionably dangerous, especially against Scherzer’s early-season profile.

However, that performance also exposed the weakness Toronto is positioned to attack. Matt Krook entered the ninth with a five-run lead and walked three consecutive hitters, forcing another reliever to put out the fire. Even Washington-focused coverage described the bullpen as a glaring roster hole requiring deadline reinforcement. (Federal Baseball)

Washington’s offense must again carry a disproportionately large burden because its starter may not provide length and its relief staff has repeatedly made comfortable games competitive.

Supporting head-to-head history

Toronto has won six of the last ten meetings and swept the most recent regular-season series in 2025, winning all three games by scores of:

5-2

5-3

4-2

Historical results have limited predictive power because rosters change, but they reinforce that Toronto has not been overmatched in this interleague series.

Bottom line

The obvious objection is Scherzer’s 10.23 ERA, making Toronto inappropriate as a large or premium-strength play. Nevertheless, the wager is not asking Scherzer to dominate for seven innings. It is asking him to show enough of the form displayed during his five-hitless-inning rehabilitation start to turn the game over to Toronto’s much better bullpen.

Toronto offers:

An 11.88-game Luck Gap

A break-even requirement of only 45.7% at +119

A major available-bullpen advantage

A favorable matchup against a starter with a 5.84 recent ERA

A chance to attack Washington’s 27th-ranked bullpen

A Nationals opponent that is only 22-32 at home

The play is Toronto +119, preferably full game rather than first five. Washington has the hotter offense and the more reliable starting-pitcher statistics, but Toronto’s regression profile, relief advantage and plus-money price provide the stronger betting value.