Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Rangers over 7½ -120

Recommended Bet: Pogon Szczecin +140

1* Bet on Fever/Sky: under 187½

Ricky's 1* play on BOS.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Red Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 games.

- The Giants are 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games.

- The Red Sox are 4-2 in their last 6 home games.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

3* on Astros

1* Free Play on Storm/Wings under 173½ -110

Free Play on Aces -11 -110

1* FREE INFO PLAY Orioles +101

Rocketman Sports FREE WNBA play Sunday 8-23-26

Las Vegas @ Toronto  (7:00 PM EST)
Play On:  Las Vegas -11

The Las Vegas Aces travel to Toronto to take on the Tempo on Sunday night.  Las Vegas is 25-14 SU overall this year while Toronto comes in with an 11-25 SU overall record on the season.  Toronto is 3-15 SU over the past 2 months allowing 96.5 points per game and 0-8 SU over the past month allowing 99.9 points per game.  Las Vegas is 8-2 ATS last 10 games against a team with a losing record.  We'll recommend a small play on Las Vegas tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocketman is on a RED HOT 9-0 run in the WNBA!  Rocky Atkinson has his WNBA PLAY OF THE DAY going Sunday. One of the BEST HANDICAPPERS in the world is on an impressive 17-4 81% WNBA run over his last 22 picks!  Don't miss out!

Rocky Atkinson has his CFL Game of the Week going Sunday. One of the BEST HANDICAPPERS in the world is on an impressive 14-5 74% CFL run over his last 20 picks! Join the same handicapper that has made $1,000/game bettors $8,450 since October 25, 2024 with his Spread on Saskatchewan v. BC!

Rocky Atkinson has his TOP RATED 10* NFL PRESEASON GAME OF THE YEAR going Sunday.  Rocketman is 1-0 after Week 1 of the preseason this year and now 3-0 100% overall this preseason.  Don't miss out on this HUGE Winner! 

1* Free Sharp Play on Angels vs Rangers under 8½ -120

The MLB Sunday night TOTAL OF THE YEAR headlines along with a 16-0 NFLX PLAY, 6* WNBA and CFL

The MLB Comp play is on Toronto at 1:35 eastern.The Bluejays won Saturdays game and Rob notes that home teams like the Yankees are 0-6 in the last game of a series where the total is more than 7 and they lost at home and scored 3 or less runs and their opponent scored 4 or less runs but had 15+ hits and this is the last game of the series. The Jays have won the last 5 starts with Soriano. Look for the Blue Jays to take the rubber game. GL Rob V-

Looking at the Week 0 board this year, one number keeps staring me right in the face. TCU laying a touchdown against North Carolina over in Dublin feels like the cleanest play on the early slate.

I have been on this one for a while now. TCU has the more settled roster, especially in the trenches, and that continuity matters more than most people want to admit in Week 0. North Carolina is still sorting through a heavy overhaul in Belichick’s second season, with a new offensive coordinator trying to install a system on the fly and a pile of new bodies who have not taken meaningful snaps together yet. In college football, that gap tends to show up early, especially when both teams have to fly across the ocean for a noon kick.

Neutral-site openers have always been kind to the more physical, more experienced side. Over the last fifteen years, favorites laying between six and eight points in true neutral-site season openers have covered right around 58 percent of the time. At standard juice you only need to hit 52.4 percent to break even, so that edge is real. When you tighten the filter to games that involved long-haul or overseas travel, the favorite’s cover rate climbs closer to 61 percent and the under hits nearly 60 percent of the time. The average total in those spots has finished almost four points under the number. Jet lag is no joke, and neither is limited practice time before a transatlantic flight.

TCU has been the more consistent outfit under Sonny Dykes. His teams usually play with a clear physical identity and they do not mind grinding it out early in the season. North Carolina, meanwhile, has spent the last couple of years looking like a roster still trying to figure out who belongs where. Historical trends for ACC teams opening against Big 12 competition on neutral fields lean toward the side with better line continuity, and TCU checks that box. Favorites in this exact range that also held a clear edge up front have covered better than 60 percent since the mid-2010s. That is the kind of number that keeps the lights on if you stay disciplined.

I will take the under as a secondary piece if the total sits near 48. Early-season scoring is often suppressed when teams are still installing, traveling, and playing a little tight. Both sides prefer a physical brand of football, and that style rarely produces fireworks in the first half of a Week 0 game on foreign soil.

Hawai’i getting points at Stanford and Memphis as a small dog against UNLV are fine secondary looks if you like chasing value on the dog side. I generally leave the massive numbers alone unless the total is screaming. This TCU spot is different. It is the kind of early-season situation where the sharper side of the board usually cashes, and the travel factor only adds another layer of protection.

I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again, but this one sits right with me. Continuity, trenches, travel, and the historical numbers all point the same direction. If the line drifts a half-point either way I am still on it. Good luck if you decide to ride along.

Note: I bet this selection while was able to get -7. But it s still good at this number.

Please unless your a weekend warrior do not buy off the hook.

BUYING OFF THE HOOK 

Buying off the hook is one of those moves that feels smart in the moment and slowly bleeds you over time. I have watched plenty of sharp money and square money both fall into the same trap, and the long-term numbers do not lie. You are paying extra juice to move the line half a point or a full point so a common final margin turns into a push or a win instead of a loss. Classic example is laying the three and a half instead of the three, or taking the plus three and a half instead of the plus three. The hook disappears, your ticket looks safer, and the price quietly climbs from minus one-ten to minus one-twenty or worse.

That extra juice is the real problem. Standard minus one-ten needs you to cash about fifty-two point four percent just to break even. Jump to minus one-twenty and you need roughly fifty-four and a half percent. At minus one-thirty you are staring at fifty-six and a half percent. Those two to four extra points of required win rate add up fast across a season. The probability of a game landing exactly on the number you bought off is almost never high enough to cover the cost over hundreds of plays.

Football is where the conversation gets loudest because the key numbers actually matter. Three and seven have historically been the biggest hooks in both the NFL and college game. League-wide data over the last decade shows finals of three happening in the high teens percentage range and sevens in the low double digits. Buying off those numbers is the only spot where the math gets closer to break-even. Even then you are usually still overpaying. Outside of those true keys the half-points become pure juice leaks. Teams that routinely buy from three and a half to three or from seven and a half to seven have shown thin or negative edges once you factor in the price.

Basketball is a different animal. NBA and college totals and spreads move around half-points constantly, but the distribution of final margins is flatter. Landing exactly on a three or a four happens less often than football’s big keys, so the value of buying the half-point is even thinner. Same story in baseball with the run line. Buying from one and a half to one or two and a half to two costs you juice that the frequency of those exact margins rarely repays. Soccer worldwide, whether Premier League, La Liga, Serie A or the big South American leagues, runs mostly on Asian handicaps where the half-goal and quarter-goal moves are already priced aggressively. Buying further off the number there is usually just giving the book more of your money for protection you do not need.

I have seen the same pattern in hockey, tennis, and the rest of the major venues. The public loves the feeling of being off the hook. The long-term winners almost never make it a habit. They would rather shop for the best available number, take the standard juice, and live with the occasional hook loss. The ones who grind out profits treat buying points like a last resort, not a regular tool. Only when the price is unusually soft on a true key number does the play even enter the conversation, and those spots are rare.

The bottom line is simple. Occasional, selective buys off a real key number at a fair price can be tolerable. Making it standard operating procedure is a slow leak that compounds against you. The juice almost always costs more than the protection is worth. Stay patient, shop the numbers, and let the hooks fall where they fall. That approach has kept more bankrolls healthy than any amount of buying ever will.

Alex Smart

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Indiana at 7 pm et on Sunday.

Tough spot for the Fever here after they just played (and lost) against the Liberty in New York last night. The Sky on the other hand are rested and feeling pretty good about themselves off three straight wins including two in a row ATS. The Sky dropped a four-point decision at home against the Fever earlier this month and while we have seen an adjustment to the pointspread in this rematch, I'm not convinced it will be enough. Look for Chicago to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Chicago (8*).

Twins vs Padres MLB Free Pick 

4-0 FREE PICK RUN!

The Angle(s): The San Diego Padres are a solid 24-14 as home favorites, including a scorching hot 5-1 with a +45% ROI with Walker Buehler (7-6, 4.79 ERA) as the starter. They've won six of Buehler's last seven starts overall, while Twins righty

Bailey Ober (7-4, 4.62 ERA) has needed a lot of support lately, posting a 5.47 ERA over his last five starts. 

The Bet: Padres 3%).

9-2 ALL SPORTS RUN and 11-4 (73%) w/ NFLX PICKS dating back to last season!

For Sunday, Mike has 4% TOP PLAYS on both the diamond and the gridiron. Grab a subscription - it will literally pay for itself!

1% GOLD RUSH on Fever -2½

The Cubs let one get away yesterday and are now 7 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Seattle's Miller has allowed 20 hits and 14 earned runs in his last 15.2 innings. The Mariners have lost 7 straight games Miller has pitched. Seattle is has been inconsistent this season. Take the Cubs to bounce back and get a win today.

Play on Chicago. This is a FREE PLAY!

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The strongest case is on Tennessee, but it stops short of premium because there is one meaningful system conflict.

The personnel edge is significant. Cam Ward and Tennessee’s available starters are expected to play roughly 20–25 snaps, while Seattle is expected to sit essentially all of its established starters and use Drew Lock and Jalen Milroe at quarterback. Ward is exactly the preferred preseason profile: a young starter who needs live repetitions and is coming off a poor preseason opener, giving Tennessee both developmental and bounce-back motivation. Seattle’s most attractive quarterback is Milroe, but he is expected to arrive after Lock. 

The current betting splits strengthen Tennessee considerably. Seattle is taking 79% of the spread tickets but only 56% of the money. That is an unusually strong public-underdog profile. Worldwide contrarian indicators — offshore, Nevada, regulated U.S. jurisdictions and substantial outlaw markets — all make Tennessee the side getting far less recreational support despite the superior first-unit workload.

There is also a broad preseason price-range system supporting the Titans: favorites from -3.5 through -7 have gone 161-136-4 ATS since 2010. That is not an elite ROI system by itself, so it is supporting evidence rather than the foundation of the play. 

The market move is acceptable but worth noting. Our official outlaw line was Tennessee -2.5, and the current consensus is roughly -4.5. That is a two-point move toward Tennessee, below the three-point automatic downgrade threshold. Some books are still showing -2.5 to -3.5, which would obviously be preferable to laying 4.5. 

Why not premium at least as of now? Seattle qualifies for a conflicting rebound system: teams held below 10 points in their previous preseason game are currently on a 21-8 ATS surge. That is a strong short-term record even though the underlying unit/ROI information is not strong enough to outweigh Tennessee’s rotation advantage, public fade and overall matchup.