Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Angels +130

Ricky's 1* play on DET.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

- The Mariners are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.

- The Tigers are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 head to head meetings

Verdict: The value is on the road Underdog.

Grant Holmes is not my favorite Braves pitcher. But that is discounted in the price, which is still low enough to back Atlanta hosting the Marlins.

The Braves have the best home record in the National League at 36-20. Miami is 24-32 on the road.

Holmes' numbers are far from terrible - 6-4 record with a 3.88 ERA - and he's backed by the NL's best bullpen. Atlanta relievers have an NL-low 3.42 ERA. The Marlins have scored 3 or fewer runs in eight of their last 12 games. 

This is shaping up to be a bullpen game for Miami with the likelihood that Ryan Gusto and his 5.31 ERA will be pitching at some point.  Only three teams have hit more home runs than the Braves. Atlanta also is the fifth highest scoring team when playing at home. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is beating the bases again this season riding his hottest stretch of the season going 18-4-1 on his last 23  MLB premium plays, including 11-2-1 on his last 14 for 85%! Stephen has an MLB Tuesday Top Ticket Total today in addition to this free selection.) 

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Tampa Bay Rays -141

The Tampa Bay Rays got their bats going yesterday in a 13-9 win over the Colorado Rockies. Look for them to stay hot at the plate today against rookie Gabriel Hughes.

The Rays made a big move at the deadline by trading for Freddy Peralta. No question he was having a rough season with the Mets, but now he has new life and a positive outlook and will be motivated to prove the Rays made the right move.

Peralta has owned the Rockies, going 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA in nine career starts against them. Most impressively is how well he has pitched at Coors Field. Peralta is 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA in four career road starts at Colorado, allowing just 3 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings. Bet the Rays Tuesday.

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1* Free Pick on Angels +130

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

Dave's Tuesday Free Play:

1* on Chicago Cubs +183

The Key: For all the hype the Dodgers are getting right now leading into the trade deadline they aren't playing very well. They have gone 0-4 in their last 4 games overall. Tarik Skubal will make his Los Angeles debut tonight and there's a ton of pressure on him. I can't imagine he's gotten much sleep with this whirlwind. What's getting overlooked is just how good Javier Assad has been at home for the Cubs. He is 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA while yielding only 7 ER in 28 1/3 innings. The Cubs have actually had a better offense than the Dodgers this season, too. Take Chicago.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Marlins +130

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Boston Red Sox -127

The Boston Red Sox are 28-5 in their last 33 games overall. They are the hottest team in baseball and have put themselves in a great position to make the playoffs. They have shown no signs of slowing down, and getting them as short home favorites tonight over the Chicago White Sox is a nice value. Patrick Sandoval has a 3.32 ERA in four starts for the Red Sox this season. Davis Martin is 4-4 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 11 road starts for the White Sox this season. Martin has given up at least 4 earned runs in three of his last four starts. He gave up 5 earned runs in 4 innings of a 5-0 loss to the Red Sox on July 8th in his last start against them. Sandoval gave up one earned run in 4 1/3 innings of a 2-1 win over Chicago in the same series on July 9th. Give me the Red Sox.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Tigers +140

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The Leagues Cup Comp play is on the Over 2.5 goals in the Juarez at Minnesota match at 8:30 eastern. Neither team has played well of late. Juarez has lost the last 3 matches and Minnesota is win less over the last 5. We expect both teams to score at least once here as these League Cup games ten to be a bit more wide open and less tactical then the domestic League matches. Juarez allowed 5 goals last out. the most likely outcome is a Minnesota win with the game playing over 3.5. GL Rob V

My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night as the Pirates came away with a 4-3 victory. I'll call for more of the same scoring-wise on Tuesday as we have an even better starting pitching matchup. Jared Jones and Logan Henderson are by no means household names but they're two of the better young starting pitchers in the game today. Neither team has seen all that much of the opposition hurler in this case with the Buccos totalling only four at-bats against Henderson and the Brewers just 12 against Jones. Both bullpens figure to have all of their higher-leverage arms available and keep in mind the Pirates bolstered their 'pen with the addition of Luke Weaver prior to the trade deadline. A first to three or first to four wins type of affair is what I'm expecting on Tuesday at American Family Field. Take the under (8*).

Brewers vs Pirates MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Pittsburgh Pirates have won just four of their last six, and even if the wins they've found runs hard to come by. Milwaukee has splits its last 10 games, and runs have been scarce for them as well. Both Logan Henderson (5-1, 2.66 ERA) and Jared Jones (2-2, 3.81).comes in with ERAs around the 2.00 mark over their last five starts. 

The Bet: Under (3%).

1% GOLD RUSH on Rangers -185

3* on over

PSP Data Driven 1* Diamondbacks.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their last 10 games. Eduardo Rodriguez is 4-1 in his last 5 starts for the Diamondbacks.

This play starts with one of the strongest value indicators on today's board: Luck Gap. TeamRankings rates the Mets as the unluckiest team in baseball (-10.68) while Cleveland checks in at +2.39, creating a 13.07-game Luck Gap, the largest on Tuesday's card. Under this approach, teams with poor records despite underlying performance tend to be undervalued, while fortunate teams often command inflated prices.

At +132, the Mets carry an implied win probability of only 43.1%. That is a modest hurdle for a team backed by the day's biggest regression signal.

The pitching matchup is much closer than the odds imply. Sean Manaea's season ERA sits at 4.42, but his current form has been considerably stronger. Over his last three starts he owns a 3.57 ERA, and over his last five outings he has posted a 3.77 ERA, completing at least six innings in three of those starts. He has also allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five appearances, showing much better form than his full-season numbers indicate.

Joey Cantillo has the better overall ERA (3.88), but there are warning signs. His last three starts have produced a 6.59 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP, and his command remains inconsistent with 54 walks in 113.2 innings. Even while missing bats, he has struggled to pitch deep into games, posting just a 17% quality-start rate this season. Those are concerning indicators for a favorite laying more than -150.

The bullpen comparison is also tighter than perception. New York's relief corps owns a 3.12 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for the season, actually outperforming Cleveland's 3.44 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. While both bullpens have struggled over their last three games, the Mets still hold the season-long edge if Manaea can deliver another quality outing.

The betting market itself hints this game is more competitive than the standings suggest. Covers projects just 4.57-4.41 in favor of Cleveland, essentially a one-run game, while the clubs have nearly identical run prevention numbers overall.

Independent models also see value on New York despite the underdog price. NBC Sports' betting model recommends the Mets moneyline, indicating the market may be underrating New York's chances. (NBC Sports)

The Mets have been a disappointing 47-66 club, but that is precisely why the Luck Gap angle exists. Their underlying metrics suggest they have underperformed their true quality more than any team in baseball, while Cleveland has benefited from positive variance. With Manaea trending upward, Cantillo showing recent regression, a stronger season-long bullpen, and the largest Luck Gap on the board, +132 offers attractive value on the underdog.