Free Sports Picks of the Day

1* Bet on Dream -7½

1*

3* on 49ers

Free Play on Dream -8½ -105

1* Free Pick on 49ers +100

This is a preseason Game 2 dress rehearsal, and the script matters more than the roster.

Shanahan confirmed Brock Purdy and the starters get extended run.

Jim Harbaugh said his Chargers starters, Justin Herbert included, get one series.

That's the whole edge.

San Francisco's first-team offense posted 0.1512 passing EPA per dropback in 2025.

Los Angeles is trotting Herbert out for a drive and then handing it to Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei against a 49ers defense that generated 3 sacks and held Tennessee to 112 passing yards last week.

The Chargers' offensive line is a mess.

Newly signed starting center Tyler Biadasz is doubtful with a serious knee issue, and starting tackle Rashawn Slater is questionable.

A Chargers front that gave up 66 sacks in 2025 just got worse in the middle right before facing Purdy's group.

The strongest opposition point is that San Francisco's defensive front seven is banged up, with Mykel Williams out and Nick Bosa questionable, and that unit allowed 0.1315 EPA per play over its last 4 games in 2025.

Fair.

But that's a Week 1 concern against Herbert, not a Game 2 concern against Lance and Uiagalelei splitting reps behind a patchwork line.

Recent form backs the offense too, 49ers averaging 27.3 points across their last 10 versus 17.9 for the Chargers.

At +100, I'm getting even money on the team with more starter reps, the healthier O-line, and the better quarterback room top to bottom.

I like the 49ers

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Liga MX Soccer Take Tigres UANL -1.5 over Atlante (9 p.m. EST, Friday August 21) Tigres have sone work to do as they are all the way down in position No. 16 in the table (of 18 sides). This is a perennial championship contender, and we have no doubt they will rise up the standings as the season progresses (13 matches left). This looks like a good spot for them. Atlante is new to The Liga and they were promoted from Liga MX Expansion and also they took on Mazatlán’s infrastructure when that side was disbanded after last season. They have been impressive with points in three of four matches so far. They have played a lot in Mexico City, where they reside, but this will be a tough road tilt for them. The last time they went on the road outside of Mexico City was their only loss of the season, to Necaxa, a team that is much worse than Tigres. They suffered a couple really bad losses in Leagues Cup, where they were beaten by Salt Lake and Minnesota in the USA with a goal differential of -6. These sides haven’t played in a long time, but Tigres have won the last three meetings by two goals each. It’s not time to panic yet, but Tigres desperately need three points here, and this looks like a great spot at home for them to get back on track. And the value is at the lowest point it will probably be all season for this side, and we will strike while the value is there.

Looking at the Week 0 board this year, one number keeps staring me right in the face. TCU laying a touchdown against North Carolina over in Dublin feels like the cleanest play on the early slate.

I have been on this one for a while now. TCU has the more settled roster, especially in the trenches, and that continuity matters more than most people want to admit in Week 0. North Carolina is still sorting through a heavy overhaul in Belichick’s second season, with a new offensive coordinator trying to install a system on the fly and a pile of new bodies who have not taken meaningful snaps together yet. In college football, that gap tends to show up early, especially when both teams have to fly across the ocean for a noon kick.

Neutral-site openers have always been kind to the more physical, more experienced side. Over the last fifteen years, favorites laying between six and eight points in true neutral-site season openers have covered right around 58 percent of the time. At standard juice you only need to hit 52.4 percent to break even, so that edge is real. When you tighten the filter to games that involved long-haul or overseas travel, the favorite’s cover rate climbs closer to 61 percent and the under hits nearly 60 percent of the time. The average total in those spots has finished almost four points under the number. Jet lag is no joke, and neither is limited practice time before a transatlantic flight.

TCU has been the more consistent outfit under Sonny Dykes. His teams usually play with a clear physical identity and they do not mind grinding it out early in the season. North Carolina, meanwhile, has spent the last couple of years looking like a roster still trying to figure out who belongs where. Historical trends for ACC teams opening against Big 12 competition on neutral fields lean toward the side with better line continuity, and TCU checks that box. Favorites in this exact range that also held a clear edge up front have covered better than 60 percent since the mid-2010s. That is the kind of number that keeps the lights on if you stay disciplined.

I will take the under as a secondary piece if the total sits near 48. Early-season scoring is often suppressed when teams are still installing, traveling, and playing a little tight. Both sides prefer a physical brand of football, and that style rarely produces fireworks in the first half of a Week 0 game on foreign soil.

Hawai’i getting points at Stanford and Memphis as a small dog against UNLV are fine secondary looks if you like chasing value on the dog side. I generally leave the massive numbers alone unless the total is screaming. This TCU spot is different. It is the kind of early-season situation where the sharper side of the board usually cashes, and the travel factor only adds another layer of protection.

I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again, but this one sits right with me. Continuity, trenches, travel, and the historical numbers all point the same direction. If the line drifts a half-point either way I am still on it. Good luck if you decide to ride along.

Note: I bet this selection while was able to get -7. But it s still good at this number.

Please unless your a weekend warrior do not buy off the hook.

BUYING OFF THE HOOK 

Buying off the hook is one of those moves that feels smart in the moment and slowly bleeds you over time. I have watched plenty of sharp money and square money both fall into the same trap, and the long-term numbers do not lie. You are paying extra juice to move the line half a point or a full point so a common final margin turns into a push or a win instead of a loss. Classic example is laying the three and a half instead of the three, or taking the plus three and a half instead of the plus three. The hook disappears, your ticket looks safer, and the price quietly climbs from minus one-ten to minus one-twenty or worse.

That extra juice is the real problem. Standard minus one-ten needs you to cash about fifty-two point four percent just to break even. Jump to minus one-twenty and you need roughly fifty-four and a half percent. At minus one-thirty you are staring at fifty-six and a half percent. Those two to four extra points of required win rate add up fast across a season. The probability of a game landing exactly on the number you bought off is almost never high enough to cover the cost over hundreds of plays.

Football is where the conversation gets loudest because the key numbers actually matter. Three and seven have historically been the biggest hooks in both the NFL and college game. League-wide data over the last decade shows finals of three happening in the high teens percentage range and sevens in the low double digits. Buying off those numbers is the only spot where the math gets closer to break-even. Even then you are usually still overpaying. Outside of those true keys the half-points become pure juice leaks. Teams that routinely buy from three and a half to three or from seven and a half to seven have shown thin or negative edges once you factor in the price.

Basketball is a different animal. NBA and college totals and spreads move around half-points constantly, but the distribution of final margins is flatter. Landing exactly on a three or a four happens less often than football’s big keys, so the value of buying the half-point is even thinner. Same story in baseball with the run line. Buying from one and a half to one or two and a half to two costs you juice that the frequency of those exact margins rarely repays. Soccer worldwide, whether Premier League, La Liga, Serie A or the big South American leagues, runs mostly on Asian handicaps where the half-goal and quarter-goal moves are already priced aggressively. Buying further off the number there is usually just giving the book more of your money for protection you do not need.

I have seen the same pattern in hockey, tennis, and the rest of the major venues. The public loves the feeling of being off the hook. The long-term winners almost never make it a habit. They would rather shop for the best available number, take the standard juice, and live with the occasional hook loss. The ones who grind out profits treat buying points like a last resort, not a regular tool. Only when the price is unusually soft on a true key number does the play even enter the conversation, and those spots are rare.

The bottom line is simple. Occasional, selective buys off a real key number at a fair price can be tolerable. Making it standard operating procedure is a slow leak that compounds against you. The juice almost always costs more than the protection is worth. Stay patient, shop the numbers, and let the hooks fall where they fall. That approach has kept more bankrolls healthy than any amount of buying ever will.

Alex Smart

My selection is on Winnipeg plus the points over Edmonton at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

The Blue Bombers closed as four-point favorites at home against the Elks in the first meeting between these two teams this season but ultimately lost that game 23-18. So Winnipeg will be out for revenge in Edmonton on Friday and I think the Elks are quite simply laying too many points. Casual bettors will look at last week's 42-12 Elks win over the Argonauts and assume they're rightfully installed as considerable favorites here. Keep in mind, Edmonton took advantage of four Toronto turnovers in that game. In fact, the Elks have been cleaning up in the turnover battle for much of the season but as I've stated time and time again, turnovers aren't something we can accurately predict. For the most part this season, the Elks haven't met a close game they didn't like, with four of their seven victories coming by five points or less. It's been an up and down season for the Bombers but I think they're capable of taking this game down to the wire at the very least. Take Winnipeg (8*).

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 8/20:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday is with the Los Angeles Chargers plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers. Los Angeles (1-0) looks to build off their 27-7 upset victory in Houston against the Texans as a 1.5-point underdog last Thursday. The Chargers have now scored at least 23 points in five straight preseason games under head coach Jim Harbaugh — and they averaging 26.5 Points-Per-Game over that stretch. After not playing last week, quarterback Justin Herbert and the starters on offense are expected to play a series or two before giving way to Trey Lance and D.J. Uigaleilei under center. San Francisco (0-1) comes off a 19-13 loss at home against Tennessee as a 6.5-point underdog last Thursday. It has been a disheveled preseason for the 49ers with plenty of injuries and beginning training camp without head coach Kyle Shanahan as he recovered from his car accident. Quarterback Brock Purdy will get some time on the field tonight, but running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Mike Evans, and tight end George Kittle are banged up and not expected to play. The San Francisco did not play well against the Chargers in their joint practice on Tuesday — reports indicate that they lost the physicality battle at the line of scrimmage. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 preseason games when they were laying the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 29 of 41 (71%) NFLx preseason run continued last Thursday by CA$HING their NFLx play on Arizona plus the points against Las Vegas! Now Frank furthers his 21 of 28 (75%) NFLx Preseason Game of the Year/Month mark and his 13 of 18 (72%) NFLx TOTALS TEAR in the preseason with his 25* AFC Preseason Total of the Year for tonight’s Las Vegas-Houston O/U winner on ESPN at 8:00 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

1% GOLD RUSH on Brandon Nakashima +2

Free Play – Take #404 L.A. Chargers +1.5 over  San Francisco (10:05 p.m. ET, Thursday, August 19)

The Chargers routed Houston 27-7 as their reserves were superior, winning the second half 17-0. San Francisco didn’t show much in a 19-13 home loss to Tennessee. The 49ers have been flipped from +1.5 to -1.5 point road favorites for tonight. That would seem to favor the Niners since NFL teams coming off preseason wins of 11+ points and are home underdogs in the next game are on a 4-16 SU and 4-14-2 ATS. However, when you dig deeper, Jim Harbaugh Bolts teams have scored 23 or more points in August football games. Kyle Shanahan, coming off two injury-racked seasons, is seemly more interested in starting the regular season with the healthiest team possible. In the last 10 preseasons, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range have a profitable record of 198-131 ATS. Teams coming off preseason wins of 20+ points and favored are on a 31-7 SU and 24-11-2 ATS surge since 2013.

>NFLX Thursday Throwdown! 7-0 Surge

>MLB Division Game of the Night!

DOUG UPSTONE on Thursday has fired on NFLX Top Play and one MLB Top Pick! He looks to better his 181-150 long-term on all picks! Doug has a 221-181 mark on baseball picks. With NFLX here, Doug is an amazing 106-66 the last 21 years in August pro football!

Upstone is a highly decorated betting expert with 30 monitored titles in various sports and 114 Top 10 finishes in his stellar 24-year career. Get Doug’s Best Bets, Top Plays, Super Systems and terrific trends.

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For my best free pick on the board here for Thursday I am looking at the WNBA and the Las Vegas Aces hosting the Connecticut Sun. Bettors are high on the Sun coming into this one thanks to 2 straight covers by this team and the abundance of points we are getting here. Sun has also covered 3 of the last 4 games. Las Vegas off 2 big losses in a row to Minnesota and Atlanta will be in no mood to play games here with one of the worst teams in the WNBA the Sun. Look for Las Vegas to be on cruise control in the second half and still get us a nice easy cover. 

Play on the Las Vegas Aces minus the points rotation #632

***DO NOT MISS MY ALL ACESSS FOOTBALL PASSES FOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND THE NFL LAST 2 SEASONS COMBINED IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL I AM 169-113 60% AND NFL LAST SEASON 64-48 58%***

Jacksonville is taking 61% of all spread bets and 79% of the money despite now being the underdog. That is exactly the public-underdog profile worth attacking. In tight preseason games of 2.5 points or less, the majority number of bettors went only 17-32 ATS (34.6%) from 2023-25; that fade system is 5-1 ATS this preseason. When at least 59% of tickets backed the home team, those teams were just 22-31 ATS, with the fade again 5-1 this year.

Carolina adds another league-wide system: teams coming off double-digit preseason losses have rebounded significantly better on the road, going 61-43 ATS (58.7%) since 2013.

The qualification is the market. Our official outlaw line was Jacksonville -2.5, and Carolina has crossed through zero all the way to favorite. Normally that is a move to fade. Carolina's QB rotation also includes established veterans Kenny Pickett and Kyle Trask after Bryce Young, while Jacksonville could devote significant later-game snaps to younger Carter Bradley and Joey Aguilar. Those negatives prevent premium status.