Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Yankees -117

1* Bet on Dream -7½

Ricky's 1* play on NYY.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Yankees are 5-3 in their last 8 games.

- The Orioles are 0-3 in their last 3 games.

- The Yankees are 8-2 in the last 10 head to head meetings.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

These teams have power. The Yankees are second in homers and the Orioles are 12th in homers. Given the state of both team's bullpens, I find this total too low.

Yes, the starting pitchers - Gerrit Cole and Kyle Bradish - have been in good form. But Cole no longer is an ace. Bradish is not an ace either.

This is a hitter's ballpark and there is better than a 50% chance of rain in the forecast. That could mean a short evening for the starting pitchers and put even more emphasis on the bullpen.

Closer David Bednar is the Yankees' top reliever by far. Bednar isn't likely to pitch, though, having thrown each of the last two days and three of the past four days. He has thrown 48 pitches during this span.

New York's bullpen is vulnerable minus Bednar.

The Orioles lack a reliable closer. Their bullpen is mediocre at best with a 4.14 ERA. 

3* on 49ers

Free Play on Dream -8½ -105

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Thursday’s Free winner: Houston Astros.

Game 960.

5:10 PM PST/8:10 PM EST.

It’s hard to believe that this far into the regular season, a team at 64-63 is atop their division. Well, that’s the case with the Houston Astros who sit atop the American League West with a 2.0-game cushion. They face a team which is once again experiencing a disappointing and long regular season in the Los Angeles Angels who sit in fourth place in the West, at 50-77, and 14.0-games back. To say Houston has gotten the better of Los Angeles would be an understatement. This season alone just since the end of March, they have taken seven of the last 10 matchups against their division rival. The Angels started to catch fire a bit in August, splitting out their last 10 outings. But this is a team that is one of the worst overall in baseball, particularly on the road where they own a 21-41 record. Statistically, it’s ugly. They rank at or near the bottom in just about every major offensive category and at or near the bottom and just about every major pitching category, too. The Astros offense possesses some respectable numbers. Overall, their pitching staff leaves a bit to be desired. But today’s matchup compels me to side with them. On the road is Rodriguez, while at home is Lambert. In a battle of RH’s, the Angels starter is 3-5 with a 7.17 ERA, while the Astros hurler is 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA. Rodriguez has posted just one victory since the end of May, as the team is 1-9 over his last 10 outings. He is winless on the road, and over his last three outings his ERA is 4.80. Meanwhile, the Baltimore starter has been good for the team as they have won 11 of his last 14 starts. As a matter of fact, not since mid-May has he allowed a single offense to put up better than two earned runs. He is solid at home, and over the last three outings has been strong. As I mentioned at the start of this breakdown, if this line would’ve been lower, I would’ve put it out of the premium play. But I still see value it. Take the Astros. Thank you.

(#959) Los Angeles Angels @ (#960) Houston Astros | OVER | . 

Grayson Rodriguez (3-5, 7.17 ERA) vs. Peter Lambert (8-6, 3.11 ERA) . 

Looking at the numbers, this should be a clear win for the Astros. That being said, it hasn't completely been smooth sailing for Lambert recently, allowing multiple runs in five consecutive outings. Don't get me wrong, he almost never gets completely rocked. But, this could be a dangerous matchup for him if he doesn't limit balls in play. 

Grayson Rodriguez has simply been very poor this season. There's no question that I believe that he's better than what he's showed. But, it just hasn't come here in 2026. With a hungry Astros team hitting against him today, don't be shocked if he gets dominated one more time. 

Burns' Prediction: 8-4 Astros.

1* Free Pick on 49ers +100

This is a preseason Game 2 dress rehearsal, and the script matters more than the roster.

Shanahan confirmed Brock Purdy and the starters get extended run.

Jim Harbaugh said his Chargers starters, Justin Herbert included, get one series.

That's the whole edge.

San Francisco's first-team offense posted 0.1512 passing EPA per dropback in 2025.

Los Angeles is trotting Herbert out for a drive and then handing it to Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei against a 49ers defense that generated 3 sacks and held Tennessee to 112 passing yards last week.

The Chargers' offensive line is a mess.

Newly signed starting center Tyler Biadasz is doubtful with a serious knee issue, and starting tackle Rashawn Slater is questionable.

A Chargers front that gave up 66 sacks in 2025 just got worse in the middle right before facing Purdy's group.

The strongest opposition point is that San Francisco's defensive front seven is banged up, with Mykel Williams out and Nick Bosa questionable, and that unit allowed 0.1315 EPA per play over its last 4 games in 2025.

Fair.

But that's a Week 1 concern against Herbert, not a Game 2 concern against Lance and Uiagalelei splitting reps behind a patchwork line.

Recent form backs the offense too, 49ers averaging 27.3 points across their last 10 versus 17.9 for the Chargers.

At +100, I'm getting even money on the team with more starter reps, the healthier O-line, and the better quarterback room top to bottom.

I like the 49ers

Dave's Thursday Free Play:

1* on Houston Astros -1.5 (+115)

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Houston Astros as underdogs on the Run Line tonight.  They have a big edge on the rubber over the Los Angeles Angels.  Peter Lamber is 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA in 21 starts this year.  Lambert sports a 3.18 ERA in 2 starts against the Angels in 2026.  Grayson Rodriquez is 3-5 with a 7.32 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 13 starts this year.  He is 0-1 with a 6.46 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Astros.  Take Houston on the Run Line.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Orioles +115

MLB RED DIAMOND + NFLX HEADLINES Thursday and there is a PLATINUM SUPREME MOVE in the Raiders vs Texans game and a 2X PERFECT TOTAL in the Chargers vs Niners game. Comp Play below

The Thursday WNBA Comp play is on the Indiana Fever at 8 eastern. This game applies to a nice late season system for road favorites of 3 or less from games 35 to 41 if our road team is off a win and taking on a team like Dallas that is off a loss last out. Indiana has won the last 5 and 7 of the last 8 on the road. Dallas has lost 5 of the last 6 with just a lone home win over Toronto. The Wings are 0-6 straight up and to the spread since mid July against winning teams. Look for Indiana to get the Win and cover here tonight. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Liga MX Soccer Take Tigres UANL -1.5 over Atlante (9 p.m. EST, Friday August 21) Tigres have sone work to do as they are all the way down in position No. 16 in the table (of 18 sides). This is a perennial championship contender, and we have no doubt they will rise up the standings as the season progresses (13 matches left). This looks like a good spot for them. Atlante is new to The Liga and they were promoted from Liga MX Expansion and also they took on Mazatlán’s infrastructure when that side was disbanded after last season. They have been impressive with points in three of four matches so far. They have played a lot in Mexico City, where they reside, but this will be a tough road tilt for them. The last time they went on the road outside of Mexico City was their only loss of the season, to Necaxa, a team that is much worse than Tigres. They suffered a couple really bad losses in Leagues Cup, where they were beaten by Salt Lake and Minnesota in the USA with a goal differential of -6. These sides haven’t played in a long time, but Tigres have won the last three meetings by two goals each. It’s not time to panic yet, but Tigres desperately need three points here, and this looks like a great spot at home for them to get back on track. And the value is at the lowest point it will probably be all season for this side, and we will strike while the value is there.

1* Free Pick on Astros -177

Looking at the Week 0 board this year, one number keeps staring me right in the face. TCU laying a touchdown against North Carolina over in Dublin feels like the cleanest play on the early slate.

I have been on this one for a while now. TCU has the more settled roster, especially in the trenches, and that continuity matters more than most people want to admit in Week 0. North Carolina is still sorting through a heavy overhaul in Belichick’s second season, with a new offensive coordinator trying to install a system on the fly and a pile of new bodies who have not taken meaningful snaps together yet. In college football, that gap tends to show up early, especially when both teams have to fly across the ocean for a noon kick.

Neutral-site openers have always been kind to the more physical, more experienced side. Over the last fifteen years, favorites laying between six and eight points in true neutral-site season openers have covered right around 58 percent of the time. At standard juice you only need to hit 52.4 percent to break even, so that edge is real. When you tighten the filter to games that involved long-haul or overseas travel, the favorite’s cover rate climbs closer to 61 percent and the under hits nearly 60 percent of the time. The average total in those spots has finished almost four points under the number. Jet lag is no joke, and neither is limited practice time before a transatlantic flight.

TCU has been the more consistent outfit under Sonny Dykes. His teams usually play with a clear physical identity and they do not mind grinding it out early in the season. North Carolina, meanwhile, has spent the last couple of years looking like a roster still trying to figure out who belongs where. Historical trends for ACC teams opening against Big 12 competition on neutral fields lean toward the side with better line continuity, and TCU checks that box. Favorites in this exact range that also held a clear edge up front have covered better than 60 percent since the mid-2010s. That is the kind of number that keeps the lights on if you stay disciplined.

I will take the under as a secondary piece if the total sits near 48. Early-season scoring is often suppressed when teams are still installing, traveling, and playing a little tight. Both sides prefer a physical brand of football, and that style rarely produces fireworks in the first half of a Week 0 game on foreign soil.

Hawai’i getting points at Stanford and Memphis as a small dog against UNLV are fine secondary looks if you like chasing value on the dog side. I generally leave the massive numbers alone unless the total is screaming. This TCU spot is different. It is the kind of early-season situation where the sharper side of the board usually cashes, and the travel factor only adds another layer of protection.

I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again, but this one sits right with me. Continuity, trenches, travel, and the historical numbers all point the same direction. If the line drifts a half-point either way I am still on it. Good luck if you decide to ride along.

Note: I bet this selection while was able to get -7. But it s still good at this number.

Please unless your a weekend warrior do not buy off the hook.

BUYING OFF THE HOOK 

Buying off the hook is one of those moves that feels smart in the moment and slowly bleeds you over time. I have watched plenty of sharp money and square money both fall into the same trap, and the long-term numbers do not lie. You are paying extra juice to move the line half a point or a full point so a common final margin turns into a push or a win instead of a loss. Classic example is laying the three and a half instead of the three, or taking the plus three and a half instead of the plus three. The hook disappears, your ticket looks safer, and the price quietly climbs from minus one-ten to minus one-twenty or worse.

That extra juice is the real problem. Standard minus one-ten needs you to cash about fifty-two point four percent just to break even. Jump to minus one-twenty and you need roughly fifty-four and a half percent. At minus one-thirty you are staring at fifty-six and a half percent. Those two to four extra points of required win rate add up fast across a season. The probability of a game landing exactly on the number you bought off is almost never high enough to cover the cost over hundreds of plays.

Football is where the conversation gets loudest because the key numbers actually matter. Three and seven have historically been the biggest hooks in both the NFL and college game. League-wide data over the last decade shows finals of three happening in the high teens percentage range and sevens in the low double digits. Buying off those numbers is the only spot where the math gets closer to break-even. Even then you are usually still overpaying. Outside of those true keys the half-points become pure juice leaks. Teams that routinely buy from three and a half to three or from seven and a half to seven have shown thin or negative edges once you factor in the price.

Basketball is a different animal. NBA and college totals and spreads move around half-points constantly, but the distribution of final margins is flatter. Landing exactly on a three or a four happens less often than football’s big keys, so the value of buying the half-point is even thinner. Same story in baseball with the run line. Buying from one and a half to one or two and a half to two costs you juice that the frequency of those exact margins rarely repays. Soccer worldwide, whether Premier League, La Liga, Serie A or the big South American leagues, runs mostly on Asian handicaps where the half-goal and quarter-goal moves are already priced aggressively. Buying further off the number there is usually just giving the book more of your money for protection you do not need.

I have seen the same pattern in hockey, tennis, and the rest of the major venues. The public loves the feeling of being off the hook. The long-term winners almost never make it a habit. They would rather shop for the best available number, take the standard juice, and live with the occasional hook loss. The ones who grind out profits treat buying points like a last resort, not a regular tool. Only when the price is unusually soft on a true key number does the play even enter the conversation, and those spots are rare.

The bottom line is simple. Occasional, selective buys off a real key number at a fair price can be tolerable. Making it standard operating procedure is a slow leak that compounds against you. The juice almost always costs more than the protection is worth. Stay patient, shop the numbers, and let the hooks fall where they fall. That approach has kept more bankrolls healthy than any amount of buying ever will.

Alex Smart

My selection is on Winnipeg plus the points over Edmonton at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

The Blue Bombers closed as four-point favorites at home against the Elks in the first meeting between these two teams this season but ultimately lost that game 23-18. So Winnipeg will be out for revenge in Edmonton on Friday and I think the Elks are quite simply laying too many points. Casual bettors will look at last week's 42-12 Elks win over the Argonauts and assume they're rightfully installed as considerable favorites here. Keep in mind, Edmonton took advantage of four Toronto turnovers in that game. In fact, the Elks have been cleaning up in the turnover battle for much of the season but as I've stated time and time again, turnovers aren't something we can accurately predict. For the most part this season, the Elks haven't met a close game they didn't like, with four of their seven victories coming by five points or less. It's been an up and down season for the Bombers but I think they're capable of taking this game down to the wire at the very least. Take Winnipeg (8*).

1% GOLD RUSH on Brandon Nakashima +2

FREE PLAY on Angels +170

For my best free pick on the board here for Thursday I am looking at the WNBA and the Las Vegas Aces hosting the Connecticut Sun. Bettors are high on the Sun coming into this one thanks to 2 straight covers by this team and the abundance of points we are getting here. Sun has also covered 3 of the last 4 games. Las Vegas off 2 big losses in a row to Minnesota and Atlanta will be in no mood to play games here with one of the worst teams in the WNBA the Sun. Look for Las Vegas to be on cruise control in the second half and still get us a nice easy cover. 

Play on the Las Vegas Aces minus the points rotation #632

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The side isn't quite as strong because the market has taken away the original price, but the system discrepancy remains enormous.

Houston is:

7-1 ATS in Game 2

Las Vegas is:

3-9 ATS in Game 2

The Raiders have also entered this spot on an 0-4 ATS preseason-road run.

There is a coaching situational system as well. DeMeco Ryans entered 2026 6-4 ATS overall in preseason but lost the opener to the Chargers, updating his career ATS mark to 6-5. More importantly, Ryans has been 3-0 SU and ATS following a preseason loss. Houston qualifies directly.

Personnel agrees with the systems. Stroud and the healthy Houston starters are expected to play, a significant change after Houston rested most front-line personnel in its 27-7 opener.

Houston also reportedly had the better of Tuesday's joint practice. Its running game produced one of its better sessions of camp, Stroud threw multiple touchdowns, and the Texans' defensive front consistently pressured both Kirk Cousins and Mendoza.

The major Las Vegas positive is Mendoza. The No. 1 overall pick received his first meaningful first-team practice work and is expected to play extensively Thursday. He remains one of the strongest young/hungry quarterback profiles on the preseason board.