Free Sports Picks of the Day

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+105)

The Atlanta Braves are struggling right now going 1-6 in their last seven games overall while being held to 5 runs or fewer in eight consecutive games, including 3 runs or fewer in five of them.  They are without Ronald Acuna Jr. which is a big reason they are struggling so much offensively.

It won't get any easier for them today against the best starter in baseball in Jacob Misiorowski.  He is 8-2 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in 14 starts this season with a whopping 131 K's in 87 innings.  Misiorowski fired a complete game shutout on just 95 pitches with 15 K's in his last start against the Phillies.

Soft tosser Martin Perez is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball for the Braves.  He does not enjoy facing the Brewers, allowing 14 earned runs and 6 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them.  It's an underrated Brewers lineup that is scoring 5.3 runs per game on the season and 7.2 runs per game in their last 16 games.  

Milwaukee is 7-2 in its last nine meetings with Atlanta with six of those seven wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Friday.

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1* Bet on Toronto Tempo PK

Free Play on Toronto Tempo PK -110

Free Total Annihilator On Mystics vs Liberty over 167½ -110

(#619) Minnesota Lynx | ATS | . 

Minnesota began the season brilliantly. However, it suffered a setback against the Las Vegas Aces in one of its WNBA Commissioner's Cup games, making it impossible to make the final. That shouldn't matter though as the Lynx have now won consecutive games since and continue to lead the Western Conference without their best player. 

Looking at Golden State, I've actually been impressed with what it's done so far this season. The Valkyries are 10-5 and look to be making a charge to perhaps be a playoff contender this season. However, I still don't believe that they have the intangibles to do so. I don't see them beating the #1 team in the West right now. 

Burns' Prediction: 89-80 Minnesota.

This is the lowest total on a Nationals game all month. Is it justified? I sure don't think so in a pitching matchup of Cade Cavalli versus Griffin Jax. I'm expecting double-digit runs.

Cavalli has a 3.98 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. The Nationals are the worst defensive team in the league. They are going to have problems fielding at Tropicana Park's strange artificial turf venue.

The Rays have the fourth highest batting average in the majors and own the highest on base percentage in the American League.

The Nationals score the most runs in baseball averaging 5.4 per game. They are facing Jax, a converted reliever, who has a decent 3.68 ERA but is prone to giving up home runs having surrendered seven in 44 innings. Only six teams have homered more than the Nationals.

Both bullpens rank in the bottom nine in ERA.  So for me this is an easy call on the Over given this total. 

3* on Braves

Free Play – Take #951 San Francisco +104 over Miami (7:10 p.m. ET, Friday, June 19)

This feels like a peculiar line, given Miami could be .500 after tonight, and San Francisco is nowhere near that level. Yet, here we are. The Giants' offense has come alive, ranked in the bottom 3 in runs scored most of the season and up to #21 after hanging a pair of 7s on Atlanta in a weather-shortened series. San Fran will start Landen Roupp (5-7, 4.24 ERA), who started this season 5-1 with a 2.55 ERA through April. However, his ERA has gone up each month as he's gone 0-4 with a 4.38 ERA in May and 0-2, 8.16 ERA in June (three starts so far). However, he has a 3.12 ERA in two career appearances (one start) against Miami. I’m looking at this tonight; home teams like Miami, when the money line is +125 to -125, off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 46-49% on the season, are just 15-42 in this exact situation.

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1* Free Pick on Montreal -3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1* MLB - Cardinals/Royals FREE PICK on OVER 9

Dave's Friday Free Play:

1* on Houston Astros -121

The Key: The Guardians are missing 3 of their best hitters in Jose Ramirez, Chase DeLauter and Angel Ramirez.  It's no wonder they have scored 4 runs or fewer in 10 of their last 14 games while going 4-8 during this stretch.  They are also at a rest disadvantage today after finishing their series in Milwaukee Thursday while the Astros had it off.  The Astros are about as healthy as they've been all season and it is really starting to show offensively.  They should crush Tanner Bibee, who is 1-3 with a 4.54 ERA in 6 road starts this year.  Bibee has yielded 6 ER and 3 HR in 10 2/3 innings in his last 2 starts against Houston.  Tatsuya Imai has yielded 2 ER or fewer in 3 of his last 4 starts.  Take Houston.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Astros -109

1 Unit FREE PLAY on St. Louis Cardinals -115

The St. Louis Cardinals stranded 15 base runners in their 14-6 loss to the Royals in Game 1.  The Royals only stranded 6 to compare.  The Cardinals will bounce back in Game 2 with their ace on the mound.  Michael McGreevy is 3-5 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Seth Lugo is 1-3 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in eight home starts for the Royals.  He is returning from a concussion today, and that's not their only injury concern.  Their best player in Bobby Witt Jr. left yesterday's game with a knee injury and is almost certainly going to be out for this game.  They are also without Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino offensively.  The Cardinals have the much more potent lineup currently and should be bigger favorites tonight.  Give me the Cardinals.

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Free World Cup Soccer Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #225373 Japan over Tunisia (11:59 p.m. EST, Saturday June 20 FS1) Even though we are skeptical that Japan will go too far in this tournament we were super impressed with their resilience in their opener vs. Netherlands. Every time they were punched in the face with a Dutch goal, they punched back with one of their own and earned what should be a very important point in a 2-2 draw. Group F has three very good sides and with Sweden beating Tunisia 5-1 in their opener, it is now evident that Japan and Netherlands will need big results vs. Tunisia. We don’t think the Japanese leave anything to chance here, and we think they will be aggressive in searching for goals and we think they will get them. Tunisia have scored only a single goal combined in their last three matches and they were outscored in their last two against top competition with a goal differential of -9. Japan will have plenty of opportunities here and they showed vs. the Dutch that they can take advantage with accurate shots.

1* Free Play on Toronto Tempo PK -110

If you're hunting for a clean spot on the board tonight, the Dodgers laying the run line at home against the Orioles stands out as one of the sharper plays. Baltimore is sending a rookie starter who's still trying to find his footing in the big leagues, and the numbers paint a pretty clear picture of what usually happens when that kind of mismatch lands in Dodger Stadium.

Trey Gibson has logged limited innings this year, and the results have been rough: an ERA north of 5.90, elevated FIP, too many free passes with walks per nine climbing, and a hard-hit rate that's been punishing. That's not the profile you want bringing the ball to a Dodgers lineup that's been one of the more consistent home offenses in baseball, generating extra-base damage and posting strong run differentials in their own yard. Los Angeles has outscored opponents by a healthy margin at home while allowing right around 3.3–3.4 runs per game. Simple run differential math, positive on offense, stingy on defense, usually translates into covering the minus side of the number more often than not.

The Orioles' road splits make this even tougher. They've been outscored on average away from home, with a sub-.370 winning percentage in those games and a negative run differential that travels poorly. Scoring in the low-to-mid 4s while surrendering over 5 runs per contest on the road is a tough formula against a club that dominates at home against sub-.500 teams. The Dodgers aren't just winning these spots, they're winning by multiple runs with enough frequency that the run line has real edge.

Roki Sasaki gets the ball for L.A., and while his overall ERA sits in the mid-4s, recent outings show sharper command and swing-and-miss stuff. More importantly, the Dodgers' staff as a whole has kept home games from turning into track meets. Pair that with an offense capable of stringing together timely power and extra-base hits, and you have a profile built for pulling away rather than grinding out one-run victories.

Broader trends reinforce the same story. Road underdogs with shaky starting pitching have historically struggled to stay within a run and a half against strong home favorites with superior staff and park-adjusted edges. The Orioles have shown occasional flashes, but the road environment plus a starter still searching for consistency has been a recurring problem. On the other side, the Dodgers have turned Dodger Stadium into a reliable spot for building and protecting leads, the kind of home dominance that shows up in cover rates against clubs below .500.

Market consensus puts the Dodgers' win probability in the 70-75% range in this spot, which aligns with how these home favorites have performed historically when the pitching mismatch tilts heavily their way. I've been grinding these numbers all afternoon, and this one lines up too cleanly to ignore. The pitching gap, the home/road splits, and that straightforward run differential math all point the same direction. Dodgers -1.5 is the side I'm riding tonight, let's see the numbers keep doing the talking

My selection is on Toronto moneyline over Connecticut at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

Something has to give in this matchup as the Tempo enter riding a season-high three-game losing streak while the Sun have lost a season-high six straight contests. There are levels to the WNBA and the expansion Tempo are in a tier above the Sun without a doubt. Credit Connecticut for pushing Toronto to the limit in the first meeting between these two teams on June 10th but that was one of the Sun's best shooting nights of the season to date. I don't expect them to repeat that πerformance here. Toronto has run into difficult opposition in the Dream and Fever over the last week but takes a step down in class here and I expect it to deliver a rare road victory. Take Toronto moneyline (8*).

AAA Sports' Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (ML).

Minnesota will start Connor Prielipp -- He has not been great so far this year with a 5.26 earned run average in 10 games (7.27 in four road games).

The Twins have performed well this year but are just 7-14 against opponents from the National League.

Arizona will start Michael Soroka -- Canada's top pitcher has been terrific this year, with a 2.09 earned run average at home this year.

The Diamondbacks are 8-4 at home this season when playing against opponents from the AL.

We're on AZ.

FREE PLAY on Mystics/Liberty over 167½

For my best free pick on the board for Friday I am looking at the Golden State Valkyries hosting the Minnesota Lynx. Minnesota has far exceeded expectations this season so far covering 12 of 15 games this season and with that covering has come the add on of the bandwagon bettors and inflated lines. Love getting the Valkyries at home getting points as this team looks for its first ever win over the Lynx. 0-7 SU. Look for this game to be tight at the half and come down to who has the ball last. Give me the points. 

Play on the Golden State Valkyries plus the points rotation #620

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