Free Sports Picks of the Day

Browse all available free picks, predictions and matchup analysis for current in-season sports below.

The selections here are complimentary plays posted daily from sports betting and handicapping experts.

These picks are a secondary addition to a handicapper’s stronger releases and best bets of the day.

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Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Calvin King

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 7:10 PM in 2h
MLB | CLE vs CIN
Play on: UNDER 9 +100
Game Analysis

[1%] Free Play on Reds under 9 +100

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 12:45 am
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Max Chase

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 9:38 PM in 5h
MLB | HOU vs LAA
Play on: OVER 8 -110
Game Analysis

1* Free Pick on Astros/Angels over 8

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 10:45 am
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Totals Guru

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 6:45 PM in 2h
MLB | TOR vs WAS
Play on: OVER 8½ -110
Game Analysis

Free Total Annihilator On Blue Jays vs Nationals over 8½ -110

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 09:01 am
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Matt Sullivan

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 10:00 PM in 5h
WNBA | Liberty vs Sparks
Play on: Liberty -4½ -110 at Bovada
Game Analysis

1* Bet on Liberty -4½

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 08:16 am
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Sal Michaels

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 6:40 PM in 2h
MLB | Phillies vs Marlins
Play on: Marlins -114 at Buckeye
Game Analysis

Free Play on Marlins -114

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 03:22 pm
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Ricky Tran

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 6:40 PM in 2h
MLB | Orioles vs Tigers
Play on: Tigers -130 at betonline
Game Analysis

Ricky's 1* play on DET.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Detroit are 12-5 in its last 17 games against an opponent in the American League.

- Baltimore are 4-8 in its last 12 games against Detroit.

- Detroit are 8-3 in its last 11 games against an opponent in the American League East Division

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

Pick Released on Jul 27 at 06:11 pm
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Stephen Nover

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 10:00 PM in 5h
WNBA | Liberty vs Sparks
Play on: Liberty -4½ -115 at PlayMGM
Game Analysis

There is a class difference here as evident by the point spread. The key is trying to figure out if the Liberty can be trusted to lay this many points on the road.  I believe they can. The team is not yet at full strength, but they have gotten healthier and Sabrina Ionescu has started playing better after being out much of the earlier part of the season. Ionescu is one of the better guards in the league. Breanna Stewart is the best player on the court and her frontcourt teammate, Jonquel Jones, just won All-Star Game MVP honors.  Los Angeles has lost five in a row to fall to 10-16. LA is 5-8 at home and remain without its star guard, Kelsey Plum. The Sparks are 3-11 without Plum. LA also is just 2-5 ATS as a home underdog.  The Sparks have not been able to solve their defensive woes. They are giving up the most points in the league at 93.4 points a game and rank second to last in defensive field goal percentage. LA has permitted at least 96 points in three of its last five games.  New York has the incentive and superstars that can take advantage. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 14-4 on his last 18 WNBA premium/free totals plays and has a WNBA totals play today in addition to this free selection.) 

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 09:36 am
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William Burns

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 7:30 PM in 3h
WNBA | Sun vs Mystics
Play on: UNDER 159½ -105
Game Analysis

(#613) Connecticut Sun @ (#614) Washington Mystics | UNDER | . 

Connecticut hasn't been great all season long and that's going to continue on Tuesday. The Sun have scored less than 65 points twice over their past five games played this season and are averaging the least amount of PPG this season out of any team in the WNBA. 

On the other hand, Washington ranks second last in PPG scored in the WNBA. That means that these are the two lowest scoring teams in the league. That should give you enough info right there. Hammer the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 81-72 Mystics.

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 02:07 pm
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Hunter Price

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 7:45 PM in 3h
MLB | Cubs vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals +105 at betus
Game Analysis

1* Free Pick on Cardinals +105

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 09:01 am
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Frank Sawyer

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 7:40 PM in 3h
MLB | Royals vs Twins
Play on: Twins -168 at betus
Game Analysis

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 7/28:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Tuesday is with the Minnesota Twins with the money-line versus the Kansas City Royals listing both starting pitchers Taj Bradley and Seth Lugo. Minnesota (53-54) has won four of their last five games after their 11-8 victory at home against the Athletics on Sunday. The Twins stay at home where they have won 8 of their last 11 games. They have also won 8 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. Kansas City (45-62) has won three games in a row after their 5-4 win at Detroit on Sunday. The Royals have lost 35 of their last 54 games on the road. They have also lost 22 of their last 34 games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Take Minnesota with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

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Pick Released on Jul 28 at 02:24 pm
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Bobby Conn

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 10:00 PM in 5h
WNBA | Portland Fire vs Aces
Play on: Aces -11½ -105 at Bovada
Game Analysis

1* Free Play on Aces -11½ -105

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 08:29 am
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Jack Jones

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 9:40 PM in 5h
MLB | Red Sox vs A's
Play on: Red Sox -152 at Bovada
Game Analysis

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Boston Red Sox -152

I'll hop back on the Red Sox again Tuesday after cashing them in Monday in a 4-2 victory in Game 1 of this series with the A's.  The reasons are mostly the same as we have two teams headed in opposite directions, plus the Red Sox have a big advantage on the mound tonight.

The Red Sox have gone 18-2 in their last 20 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in 14 of those 20 games.  The A's are 4-20 in their last 24 games overall and have been held to 2 runs or fewer in 13 of those 24 games.  The injuries just keep piling up for them as they are now without All-Star C Shea Langeliers.

Rookie Jake Bennett is proving he belongs in the big leagues.  He is 6-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 10 starts this season, allowing just 17 earned runs, 4 homers and 9 walks in 59 1/3 innings.  He has allowed just 6 earned runs in 38 2/3 innings in his last six starts for a 1.40 ERA during this stretch.  Boston is 5-0 in Bennett's last five starts with all five wins coming by 3 runs or more.

Rookie Gage Jump has been overwhelmed in his first season in the big leagues.  He is 0-5 with an 8.31 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 20 earned runs and 7 homers in 21 innings.  The A's are obviously 0-5 in those five starts.  Bet the Red Sox Tuesday.

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Pick Released on Jul 28 at 12:22 am
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Jimmy Boyd

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 10:00 PM in 5h
WNBA | Liberty vs Sparks
Play on: Liberty -4½ -110 at Bovada
Game Analysis

1* Free Pick on Liberty -4½

The Sparks have collapsed.

Los Angeles is 2-8 over its last 10 games with a -9.7 net rating and a 113.2 defensive rating.

Kelsey Plum, their leading scorer at 23.9 PPG, is out.

That's the entire engine of their offense on the bench.

Without Plum, the Sparks are a bottom-tier WNBA team.

Rae Burrell sliding into the starting lineup is a downgrade of nearly 11 points per game at the guard spot.

Erica Wheeler and Ariel Atkins are complementary pieces, not shot creators who bend a defense.

The Liberty frontcourt is where this game gets decided.

Breanna Stewart at 21.1 PPG and Jonquel Jones at 14.8 PPG and 9-plus rebounds attack a Sparks interior that has no rim protection with Cameron Brink playing just 17.6 minutes off the bench.

Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby are quality veterans, but they can't guard both of New York's stars for 30-plus minutes.

I hear the opposition on New York's 1-8 ATS mark as road favorites and the missing wings in Sabally, Fiebich, and Johannes.

That's the reason this line is 4.5 and not 8.5.

The market already baked that in.

What it hasn't fully priced is a Sparks team that has lost five straight and gives up 113.2 per 100 while missing a 23.9 PPG scorer.

Both teams are on 6 days rest, so no fatigue edge either way.

This is a talent gap game.

Give me the Liberty getting the top-heavy stars against a Sparks roster that's been outclassed all month.

I like the Liberty

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 10:47 am
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Jeff Alexander

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 9:45 PM in 5h
MLB | Brewers vs Giants
Play on: Giants +126 at Ace
Game Analysis

1* MLB - Brewers/Giants FREE PICK on Giants +126

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 12:54 am
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Dave Price

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 7:40 PM in 3h
MLB | Royals vs Twins
Play on: Twins -155 at betonline
Game Analysis

Dave's Tuesday Free Play:

1* on Minnesota Twins -155

The Key: The Minnesota Twins are still very much alive in the AL Central after going 4-1 in their last 5 games to pull within 3 games of the White Sox for 1st play.  They are pretty much the forgotten team in this division and they like it that way.  This is a great chance for them to gain some ground against the last place team in the division in the Royals, who are 45-62 on the season.  The Royals have a plethora of injuries right now especially offensively to arguably their 2 best hitters in Witt and Garcia.  The Twins have the much better offense scoring 4.8 RPG.  They have the edge on the rubber tonight as well.  Taj Bradley has yielded 2 ER or fewer in 6 of his last 7 starts.  He has pitched 12 2/3 shutout innings in his last 2 starts against the Royals to improve to 2-1 with a 0.73 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against them.  Seth Lugo is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in 9 road starts this year.  He has yielded 12 ER and 5 HR in 9 innings in his last 2 starts against the Twins.  Lugo is 1-2 with a 7.92 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 5 lifetime road starts at Minnesota.  Take Minnesota.

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Pick Released on Jul 28 at 12:32 am
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John Martin

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 10:10 PM in 5h
MLB | Mariners vs Dodgers
Play on: Dodgers -1½ +120 at PlayMGM
Game Analysis

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+120)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the best offenses in the majors scoring 5.2 runs per game.  The Seattle Mariners have one of the worst scoring just 4.0 runs per game.  Seattle comes in really struggling going 1-5 in its last six games overall.  Los Angeles has gone 4-1 in its last five games.  The Dodgers have the rest advantage after having Monday off while the Mariners were finishing their 4-game series in Texas.  We'll fade Luis Castillo, who is 3-9 with a 4.85 ERA in 16 starts and three relief outings for the Mariners this season.  Give me the Dodgers on the Run Line.

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Pick Released on Jul 28 at 12:38 am
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Rocky Atkinson

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 7:40 PM in 3h
MLB | Yankees vs White Sox
Play on: Yankees -129 at betonline
Game Analysis

Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Tuesday 7-28-26

NY Yankees @ Chicago White Sox  (7:40 PM EST)
Play On:  NY Yankees -129

The New York Yankees take on the White Sox in Chicago on Tuesday night.  The Yankees are 60-46 SU overall this year while the White Sox come in with a 55-50 SU overall record on the season.  The Yankees are 34-23 on the road this year.  The Yankees are 9-1 on the road this year against AL Central division opponents.  The Yankees are 68-28 last 3 years against AL Central division opponents including 34-13 on the road.  The Yankees are 7-1 last 8 road games.  Gerrit Cole is 46-11 in his career against AL Central division opponents.  Anthony Kay is 0-1 with a 9.72 ERA in his career starts against the Yankees.  The Yankees are 14-3 overall in this series the past 3 years including winning 6 of the past 7.  The White Sox are 1-6 last 7 games at home vs the Yankees.  We'll recommend a small play on the NY Yankees tonight!   Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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Not every game qualifies for a top-rated release.

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Complete analysis and game selection

Immediate access before line movement

TIME IS RUNNING OUT

Sportsbooks don't wait.

The best numbers disappear quickly once professional money enters the market.

This play is available only until first pitch.

Once the game starts, the opportunity is gone.

Don't be the bettor reading about the winner tomorrow when you could be cashing the ticket tonight.

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 09:54 am
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Steve Janus

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 7:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Guardians vs Reds
Play on: Guardians -125 at betonline
Game Analysis

1* Free Sharp Play on Guardians -125

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 12:00 am
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Matt Fargo

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 7:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Guardians vs Reds
Play on: Reds +115 at circa
Game Analysis

This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS (GAME TWO) for our Tuesday Free Play. Cleveland remains in second place in the American League Central and it is barely above water but the weak division has certainly helped. Gavin Williams is coming off one of his best starts of the season as he allowed two hits and no runs in seven innings while striking out 11 against the Twins. That start was at home where he has been solid with a 3.09 ERA across 67 innings and he has not been nearly as good on the road with his 4.55 ERA over 59.1 innings. The Reds have been on a solid run as they try to remain in the National League Wild Card race. Brady Singer has had a rough season but similar to Williams, his struggles have been on the road where he has a 5.89 ERA in 11 outings on the highway but he is back home here where he has made nine starts and posted a 2.98 ERA to go along with a 1.22 WHIP. Play (928) Cincinnati Reds

Fargo was 2-0 on Monday with wins on the +158 Marlins and +122 Giants and he looks to score big and add to the profitable season. Tuesday features TWO Winners highlighted by his A.L. Game of the Month!

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 06:17 am
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Brandon Lee

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 7:45 PM in 3h
MLB | Cubs vs Cardinals
Play on: Cubs -108 at Ace
Game Analysis

Tuesday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Cubs -108

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 12:46 am
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Alex Smart

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 6:40 PM in 2h
MLB | BAL vs DET
Play on: UNDER 9 +100
Game Analysis

I’ve been locked in on this Orioles-Tigers total for days, and the Under 9 still feels like the cleanest number on the board. Troy Melton is rolling with a 5-1 record, 1.95 ERA, and 0.95 WHIP over 60 innings. He’s allowed just 14 runs (13 earned) and held opponents to two runs or fewer in nine of ten starts. His 55-to-19 strikeout-to-walk mark works out to a 2.89 K/BB ratio while opponents are hitting a soft .190 against him. Dean Kremer sits at 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 32 innings. He’s already surrendered 10 home runs for a brutal 2.81 HR/9. Recent outings show the damage: six earned in six innings against Boston and four earned in five against the Cubs. The gap between a 1.95 ERA and a 5.06 ERA is massive. Average those two expected run rates and you’re looking at roughly 3.5 runs from the starters alone before the bullpens even get involved. Comerica Park continues to play quiet with a season-long run factor near 0.96 and a home-run factor around 0.90. Melton’s ground-ball rate north of 45 percent pairs perfectly with those deep dimensions. Simple arithmetic already puts the combined starter contribution well under nine, and Melton’s track record of limiting traffic only tightens the lean. I’m rooting for Melton to keep the Orioles quiet and for that Under to cash clean.

Smart Intelligence Prop Report (MLB) Tuesday, July 28, 2026

I’ve locked in the strongest edges after reviewing the full rotational slate, recent form, park factors, projected lineups, and weather. Lineups remain subject to change closer to first pitch. Here’s the focused card with specific odds.

Troy Melton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-113) Melton is 5-1 with a 1.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 55 strikeouts in 60 innings (8.3 K/9). His last five starts sit at a 32.4% strikeout rate, climbing to 26.8% at home. The Orioles have punched out at 23.7% over the last 30 days. Projected Orioles lineup leans left-heavy at the top (Henderson, Beavers, Holliday types) against Melton’s right-handed mix, which should generate extra empty swings. Weather at Comerica Park: 80°F, partly cloudy, 9-14 mph wind, 0% precip chance. Mild conditions with no real scoring boost or suppression.

Chase Burns Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160) Burns posts a 10.4 K/9 and 29% strikeout rate. The Guardians lineup features contact-oriented bats like Kwan and Ramírez but still offers enough chase potential for Burns to clear 5.5. Weather at Great American Ball Park: Mid-80s, light wind, low precip risk for the early game.

Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+118) Cole carries a 9.6 K/9 this season. The White Sox continue to chase at elevated rates, giving Cole a clear path past 6.5. Weather at Rate Field: Around 77°F, 13 mph wind, 0% precip. Clean conditions.

Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+118) Alcantara owns a 6.9 K/9. The Phillies have a 25.2% strikeout rate against right-handers over their last 20 games. Projected Phillies lineup (Turner, Schwarber, Harper) still swings and misses enough for the over. Weather: loanDepot park is indoor/retractable roof — no weather impact.

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-102) Freeman remains one of the steadiest total-bases producers. He draws a right-handed matchup in a solid counting-stats spot. Weather at Dodger Stadium (late game): Clear, mild, low wind.

Willson Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) Contreras has shown strong contact metrics against lefties. Facing Gage Jump puts him in a favorable total-bases spot. Weather at Sutter Health Park: Warm (low 80s), light wind, clear skies.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+475) Harper owns a .997 OPS against right-handers this season with 19 of his 22 homers coming off them. Alcantara has allowed four home runs in his last two starts. Weather: Indoor park — pure matchup play.

Quick Notes ATL @ NYM carries a high rain risk and possible postponement at Citi Field. TOR @ WSH also shows elevated precipitation chances. Most other outdoor games sit under clear or partly cloudy skies with minimal wind impact. Melton’s strikeout prop remains the strongest single play given the form, home split, and projected Orioles contact profile. Stay sharp and good luck tonight.

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 03:41 pm
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Sean Murphy

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 7:40 PM in 3h
MLB | Yankees vs White Sox
Play on: White Sox +121 at Buckeye
Game Analysis

My selection is on Chicago over New York at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Yankees rallied for a decisive victory to open this series last night. I think they're overpriced on Tuesday, however, as they send Gerrit Cole to the mound against Anthony Kay of the White Sox. New York checks in 1-5 in Cole's last six starts. It's not that he has pitched all that poorly but the bats haven't shown up for him at all lately. He did hold the White Sox to two earned runs over six innings back on June 16th so Chicago will look to get back at the right-hander here. The White Sox rank 14th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week - 12 spots ahead of the Yankees in that department. Anthony Kay has quietly pitched well for the White Sox here at home this season, logging a 3.06 ERA and 1.30 WHIP to go along with a 5-2 record in 11 outings. Neither bullpen is in great shape entering this contest. Of note, New York used seven of the eight relievers on its roster in last night's victory. Take Chicago (8*).

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 07:37 am
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AAA Sports

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 7:40 PM in 3h
MLB | Royals vs Twins
Play on: Twins -168 at circa
Game Analysis

AAA Sports' Selection: Minnesota Twins (ML).

Kansas City will start Seth Lugo -- He's been alright. But, his 5.40 earned run average on the road isn't so good.

The Royals have been playing better lately. But, they are still just 19-35 when playing on the road this season.

Minnesota will start Taj Bradley -- Over his L5 starts (all in July), he has a 2.90 earned run average.

The Twins are 4-1 over their L5 games played this season and Taj Bradley's been great.

We're on Minnesota.

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 02:11 pm
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Andrew Gold

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 6:05 PM in 1h
Tennis | A De Minaur vs Stefano Tsitsipas
Play on: Stefano Tsitsipas +115 at circa
Game Analysis

1% GOLD RUSH on Stefano Tsitsipas +115

Pick Released on Jul 27 at 08:21 am
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Doug Upstone

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 6:40 PM in 2h
MLB | Orioles vs Tigers
Play on: Tigers -138 at circa
Game Analysis

Free Play – Take #916 Detroit -138 over Baltimore (6:40 p.m. ET, Tuesday, July 28)

This AL affair would seem to come down to starting pitching. Detroit’s Troy Melton (5-1, 1.95 ERA) has surrendered two runs or fewer in nine of his 10 starts this season. Baltimore’s Dean Kremer (1-3, 5.06 ERA) was making his fourth start since missing 2 1/2 months due to a quad injury. Kremer has not found a groove since returning, with a 5.57 ERA. Kremer also has a poor history against the Tigers at 0-3 and a 7.13 ERA in three career appearances (two starts). Having lost three in a row, Detroit hoped to go into the trade deadline with a chance to reach the postseason. In truth, they may be done if they lose this series unless something occurs out of nowhere like 2024. With Melton and the Tigers 7-0 after giving up two or fewer earned runs in his last two outings and having a matching record vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .400 or lower, DEEtroit is the choice.

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Pick Released on Jul 28 at 04:17 pm
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Cole Faxon

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 9:38 PM in 5h
MLB | HOU vs LAA
Play on: OVER 8 -110
Game Analysis

FREE PLAY on Astros/Angels over 8

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 10:45 am
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Oliver Smith

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 10:00 PM in 5h
WNBA | Liberty vs Sparks
Play on: Liberty -4½ -110 at Bovada
Game Analysis

3* on Liberty

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 08:16 am
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ProSportsPicks

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 9:40 PM in 5h
MLB | Red Sox vs A's
Play on: Red Sox -140 at betonline
Game Analysis

PSP Data Driven 1* Red Sox.

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Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Boston are 18-2 SU in its last 20 games. Athletics are 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home.

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 02:09 am
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Joe Duffy

Game Details
Jul 28 '26, 9:45 PM in 5h
MLB | Brewers vs Giants
Play on: Giants +136 at Ace
Game Analysis

This is another case where the records tell one story, but the price, pitching matchup and Luck Gap tell another.

TeamRankings rates Milwaukee at +5.64 in luck and San Francisco at -5.81, producing an enormous 11.45-point Luck Gap. That is the second-largest qualifying disparity on Tuesday’s schedule. The Giants are the substantially unluckier team, making them the regression side against a Brewers club whose impressive record may overstate the true difference between these teams.

At +134, San Francisco needs to win only 42.7% of the time to break even. That is a reasonable threshold considering the Giants have already beaten Milwaukee in three of five meetings this season, including Monday night’s 3-0 shutout as a home underdog.

San Francisco limited Milwaukee to three hits and only four total baserunners in the series opener. The Brewers never advanced a runner beyond second base and were shut out for the second time in six games. Tyler Mahle worked six scoreless innings before three Giants relievers completed the shutout. (Brew Crew Ball)

Landen Roupp gives San Francisco another legitimate starting-pitching foundation. Roupp has produced a 1.29 ERA and 0.67 WHIP over his last three starts, allowing only nine hits and three earned runs across 21 innings. He has completed at least six innings in all three outings, including seven scoreless innings at Seattle and eight innings of one-run baseball against Toronto.

Roupp’s underlying skill set also matches up well at Oracle Park. He has surrendered only eight home runs in 110 innings this season and owns an extreme 2.88 ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio. That ability to keep the ball on the ground reduces Milwaukee’s power ceiling and gives him a chance to pitch deep enough to protect San Francisco’s vulnerable middle relief.

Milwaukee starter Logan Henderson has strong overall numbers, but the matchup is not as lopsided as the moneyline suggests. Henderson has made only eight starts this season and averages approximately five innings per appearance. His road ERA is 3.93, compared with 2.25 at home, and he has surrendered three home runs over his last three starts.

That likely leaves Milwaukee needing at least four innings from its bullpen. Although the Brewers’ relief corps has been productive overall, San Francisco gets the benefit of having seen Milwaukee’s staff throughout the season series and has already scored 27 runs in five games against the Brewers.

The Giants’ recent home form is also improving. Monday’s victory gave San Francisco wins in five of its last six games at Oracle Park, despite its poor overall record. (San Francisco Chronicle) The Giants have now defeated Milwaukee in three consecutive close or competitive meetings when excluding Milwaukee’s two blowout victories earlier in the season.

There is injury risk with Casey Schmitt leaving Monday’s game, but the market already accounts for San Francisco’s lineup deficiencies. The Giants are not being asked to dominate Milwaukee—they are being offered at better than +130 at home behind a starter who has been pitching exceptionally well.

The combination of the 11.45 Luck Gap, Roupp’s dominant recent form, Milwaukee’s offensive struggles Monday, San Francisco’s improving home results and a price requiring only a 42.7% win rate makes the Giants the value side.

BET: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Pick Released on Jul 28 at 09:06 am
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