Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Blue Jays -193

Free Total Annihilator On Cubs vs Brewers over 8½ +100

1* Free Pick on Nationals +180

Ricky's 1* play on MIA.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Marlins are 6-4 in the last 10 head to head meetings.

- Eury Perez is 4-1 in his last 5 starts for the Marlins.

- Jonah Tong is 1-3 in his last 4 starts for the Mets.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

The Marlins are an impressive 43-29 at home. Eury Pérez has contributed to that home record going 5-4 with a 2.81 ERA when pitching in Miami this season.

I trust Perez to get the job done against the Mets here. New York is 31-38 on the road. The Mets have scored 3 or fewer runs in five of their last eight away games.

Jonah Tong is set to make his sixth major league start for the Mets and first this season. Tong had a 7.71 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 18 2/3 innings last season. He has a 3.60 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 10 innings this season.

The Marlins have the seventh highest on base percentage when playing at home. 

Monday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Brewers -122

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Cleveland Guardians +125

The Cleveland Guardians are 2.5 games out of 1st place in the AL Central and holding onto a slim one-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays for the final wild card spot.  They have a lot to play for right now and have been coming up clutch here down the stretch to stay in contention.

The Baltimore Orioles are now 0-6 in their last six games overall to really play their way out of playoff contention.  After losing the final two games of their series to the lowly Rockies, they were just swept by the Red Sox in four games over the weekend.  They now know their fate is basically already sealed, and I have a hard time seeing them getting back up off the mat for Game 1 of this series today.

Joey Cantillo is 9-8 with a 3.88 ERA in 29 starts for the Guardians this season with 151 K's in 141 2/3 innings.  Cantillo has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts.  He is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Trevor Rogers is 9-9 with a 4.30 ERA in 26 starts for the Orioles this season.  Rogers does not enjoy facing the Guardians, going 0-2 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in three career starts against them while allowing 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 1/3 innings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Guardians Monday.

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The strongest applicable league-wide angle is straightforward: ACC games expected to be tight — point spreads from -3.5 through +3.5 — with totals of 55.5 or lower have gone 70-48-1 UNDER since 2015, a 59.3% win rate. SMU–Florida State fits with the Mustangs trading around a field-goal road favorite and the total in the low-to-mid 50s.

The matchup itself reinforces the system. Florida State's 34-17 opening win over New Mexico State was considerably less convincing offensively than the final score suggests. The Seminoles had only 17 points midway through the third quarter against a New Mexico State defense that ranked 121st in SP+ last season. Quarterback Ashton Daniels remains the biggest obstacle to trusting FSU in a higher-scoring game: over his Power Four career, he has accumulated more turnover-worthy plays than touchdown passes.

Florida State's best offensive success in the opener came on the ground, but that runs directly into SMU's defensive strength. The Mustangs finished 15th nationally in EPA allowed per rush last season and surrendered only 3.2 yards per carry. If SMU controls the Florida State running game and forces Daniels into obvious passing situations, sustained Seminoles scoring drives become much harder to manufacture.

There is also personnel-related uncertainty on the other offense. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings is expected to play, but he missed approximately 10 days of camp with a throwing-hand/finger injury and only recently returned to full work. Jennings is unquestionably dangerous — he threw for 3,641 yards and 26 touchdowns last season — but this is his first game action after the injury.

SMU's backfield is also depleted. Running backs Link Rhodes, Christian Rhodes and EJ Kelly have been ruled out, with Link Rhodes lost for the season because of a torn ACL. Offensive lineman Abel Hoopii, who had been competing for the open left-guard position, is also out for the season with a broken foot. Cal transfer Kendrick Raphael becomes especially important after rushing for 943 yards on 232 carries last season.

That matters even more because SMU has openly discussed establishing the run in this matchup. A more deliberate ground-based approach behind an experienced offensive line is favorable to the Under if the Mustangs can play from ahead and avoid turning the game into a possession-for-possession shootout.

Weather is a legitimate additional Under factor. Tallahassee carries the highest rain risk on the Week 1 board, with showers and thunderstorms likely and roughly an 80% precipitation probability. The natural-grass surface could be wet, and a lightning delay is possible. Rain is much more significant here than wind — there is presently no indication of the sustained 15-plus mph wind that would create an automatic weather downgrade — but wet footing and ball-security issues still favor a slower, less efficient offensive environment.

The public is also leaning toward points. The attached betting report showed the Over receiving a substantial majority of total tickets while the number remained in this range. That creates a strong worldwide contrarian corroboration on the Under rather than forcing us to follow the popular expectation of offense. Covers' independent consensus also has more selections on the Over than the Under.

The number is important. The market has circulated between approximately 52.5 and 53.5, and 53.5 is substantially preferable. This has not produced the type of four-point total move that would materially change our underlying power evaluation.

BETTING PARAMETER: UNDER 53.5 is the preferred number. Still playable at 52.5. Pass below 52.5.

1* Free Pick on SMU/Florida State: over 53½

This is a season opener for both teams, so there's no current form to lean on.

The case here is last year's tape, the injury reports, and the price.

Last season Florida State averaged 35.78 points a game across the nine games I have logged.

SMU averaged 32.5 over ten.

That's 68-plus combined, nearly 15 points north of this number.

Now look at who's covering the pass.

Florida State is without defensive backs Karson Hobbs, Chauncey Kennon, and Jordan Crutchfield, with safety K.J.

Kirkland doubtful.

SMU counters by losing starting safety and leading tackler Ahmaad Moses plus safety Jaden Milliner-Jones.

Both back ends are patchwork in week 1, before either staff has game reps to sort out the depth.

The offenses can take advantage.

SP+ projects SMU's offense 22nd nationally at a 32.5 rating.

Those early ratings lean on last year's production, but SMU showed it late in 2025: 45 at Boston College in November, 38 on Louisville a few weeks later.

The under case is real.

Both defenses project top 30 in SP+, and there's rain in the Tallahassee forecast.

Here's why that doesn't flip me: those defensive projections assume healthy rosters, and neither secondary is close to whole.

Wet ball or not, backup safeties bust coverages, and one or two long touchdowns change the math on a 53.5 total fast.

Depleted secondaries, capable offenses, and a number that sits well below what these teams produced last fall.

That's enough.

I like the Over

Dave's Monday Free Play:

1* on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-120)

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays have gone 7-2 in their last 9 games overall with 5 wins by 2 runs or more. They have scored at least 4 runs in all 7 wins. They are within one game of the Guardians for the final wild card spot in the American League.  The A's have so many injuries offensively that they just don't have the horses down the stretch.  They won't touch Dylan Cease, who is 10-5 with a 2.25 ERA in 26 starts this year, and 8-1 with a 1.54 ERA in 12 road starts.  The Blue Jays should rough up Jacob Lopez, who is 6-4 with a 4.71 ERA in 20 starts this year, and 0-3 with a 5.11 ERA in 10road starts.  Lopez has yielded 9 ER and 3 HR in 6 2/3 innings in his last 2 starts against the Blue Jays.  Take Toronto on the Run Line.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on St. Louis Cardinals +116

The St. Louis Cardinals have scored at least 7 runs in five of their last six games overall.  They will get to Logan Webb, who is having one of the worst seasons of his career at 8-8 with a 4.27 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Webb gave up 9 earned runs in 2 innings to the Pirates in his last start.  He has given up 7 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts against the Cardinals.  Michael McGreevy has a 3.97 ERA in 27 starts this season and a 3.89 ERA in 14 road starts.  He will hold this depleted Giants lineup in check tonight.  Give me the Cardinals.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Guardians +112

Labor Day Card is LOADED with a MASSIVE Z-Factor CFB Total a RARE 6* Canadian Football Total and Labor Day Specific MLB Power systems. Comp play below

The MLB Comp play is on Cleveland at 1:35 eastern. The Guardians have won 6 of the last 8 in the series with Baltimore who were just swept in a 4 game series against Boston dealing them a 6th straight loss. Rob notes that Labor Day Home favorites that scored 3 or less runs in a home loss are 0-5 vs a team off a home win. Cantillo for Cleveland has won his last 2 starts against Baltimore. Rogers for the Orioles is 0-3 vs Cleveland. For the free play go with Cleveland. GL Rob V-

1* Free Pick on Blue Jays -200

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Monday’s FREE WINNER: Edmonton Elks.

Game 693.

3:00 PM PST/6:00 PM EST.

Just 24 hours ago, the Edmonton Elks were favored -1.5 points. The line shifted due to some injury announcements and updates. They lost their return specialist, Leake and one of their receivers, Luther. Throw into the mix the Calgary Stampeders are expected to see the return of their quarterback, Adams Jr. But what the general public does not understand is the Elks are loaded with talent. It’s by no accident. They are atop the West division at 8-3 overall. Coincidentally enough, they also get us paid, covering eight of their 11 contests this season. While this Stampeders are just 5-6 overall and have covered just five of their 11 outings this season, they are absolutely horrible at McMahon Stadium going 2-4 at home. Very simply, even without some key players here, the visiting team is far superior. Edmonton and their solid ground attack will absolutely steamroll the league-worst Calgary run defense. With statistically the poorest defense in the West division yielding 31.8 PPG, the Stampeders are in real trouble here. We mentioned a moment ago they expect to have their quarterback returning, and I do believe he’ll be a little rusty. Even if he comes out and he is 100%, he’s still going up against the best overall defense in the CFL, possessing a smart and savvy coaching staff that will have their “D” primed and prepared here. Being a contrarian bettor, I always look to see where the general public is putting their money on. This does play part in how I select my releases. As we know, the general public is wrong most of the time. I’m going against them again here tonight, and taking the Edmonton Elks. Thank you.

Lions -7

Locking this in early. Analysis to follow.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

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Forty-four and a half is a quiet number until you remember who is walking into NRG on Sunday. Buffalo at Houston, 1:00 Eastern, Week 1, a pick’em dressed up like a heavyweight and a total that already admits this should look like 24-17, not 31-28. The public hears Josh Allen and starts adding touchdowns. The board heard Houston’s front and hung 44.5 like it meant it.

Last year the Bills went 12-5 and scored 481 points, 28.3 a night, tied for fourth in the league. That tape is real. So is a road opener in a building that has treated Allen like a tourist. Including the postseason he is 1-4 against this franchise with a 55.4 percent completion rate. That is not a curse you put on a poster. That is a completion percentage that lives in the 200s and a lot of third-and-long. Houston went 12-5 as well. The Texans were 7-11-1 to the total. Buffalo was 10-8-1. One of those clubs already knew how to keep a Sunday from turning into a track meet.

Week 1 is not January. First real snaps, first real crowd, first real script that has not been stress-tested since the spring. Openers lean under for a reason. Coaches call it safe. Quarterbacks check it down. Clock becomes the whole ticket. A 23-17 Texans win cashes 44.5 in its sleep. A 24-20 Bills win cashes. A 27-13 still has a pulse. The scores that beat it are the ones where both quarterbacks start slinging it in the fourth quarter of an opener because somebody panicked. That is not how this spot usually ages, and it is not how NRG usually ages when Buffalo is in town.

You do not need a defensive struggle that looks like 9-6. You need this to stay out of a late auction. Allen can still be the best player on the field and the under still gets paid. Stroud can still look like a franchise and the under still gets paid. The number is not asking you to fade talent. It is asking you to fade rust plus a Houston defense that does not need permission to hit.

Pertinent ledger from last season, the kind that lives on a football reference page if you want to stare at it: Bills 481 points in 17 games, 28.3 a night, 12-5, 19 giveaways. Texans 12-5, 12 giveaways, second-fewest in the league. Combined that is two grown clubs, not a cupcake and a bully. Combined they were not a 50-point problem every Sunday. Houston’s total record already told you that. Buffalo’s scoring average is the trap. People take 28.3, add a home dome, and forget that 28.3 was earned across a year, not on the first Sunday in somebody else’s building.

The public will smash Allen props and the over because the logo travels and the quarterback sells tickets. Let them. A 220-yard Allen night and a 210-yard Stroud night with a couple of field goals is an honest opener. James Cook can still eat and the total can still sit down. The ticket is not “nobody scores.” The ticket is “nobody turns this into a shootout before the rust comes off.”

Sit on 44.5. If the number drips to 43.5 it gets cleaner. If they hang 46.5, the edge is thinner and you can live without it. Sunday’s ticket is the under, not the chalk, not the revenge poster, not the first-game narrative that always sounds smarter on Saturday night.

Bet under the total in Week 1 games posted 45.5 or lower.

The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 12-7 (63.2%) with an average over/under of 43.8. (+4.1 units, ROI=19.7%)

Bet under the total in Bills road games against a 12-win defense.

That spot since 2023: 7-3 (70.0%) with an average over/under of 46.1. (+3.5 units, ROI=31.8%)

Bet under 45 in Week 1 games that open as a pick’em or inside a field goal.

That spot since 2024: 9-5 (64.3%) with an average over/under of 44.2. (+3.4 units, ROI=22.1%)

Bet under the total when Josh Allen plays in Houston.

That spot since 2022: 4-1 (80.0%) with an average over/under of 46.8. (+2.7 units, ROI=49.1%)

Confirm the number is still 44.5 closer to kick. Confirm both clubs are still listing the names you expect. Then take the under and let everybody else argue about a one-point spread in Week 1. Enjoy the early window. Bet the total. Let the logos yell at each other while the clock does the work.

Player Prop bets :Josh Allen’s passing line is sitting around 221.5. Take the under. He can still win the game and live in the 190s if Houston’s front gets him off schedule.

C.J. Stroud is around 218.5 passing yards. Same lean. Under. A home opener against Buffalo does not require 250. It requires 205 and a couple of scores.

Allen under 1.5 passing touchdowns is the other quarterback ticket. One through the air and a field-goal night is an honest road opener in this building.

James Cook around 73.5 rushing yards is the over that still fits the under. If this stays on the ground, he eats clock and the total still cashes.

My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We saw considerable regression from the Buccaneers down the stretch last season as they ultimately missed the playoffs after having it set up on a platter for them in the down-trodden NFC South. So obviously Tampa Bay has a chip on its shoulder entering the 2026 campaign but I'm not sure that will make a lick of difference. I think we're going to see the Bucs get involved in their share of shootouts again this year and in the season opener, that suits Cincinnati just fine. The Bengals finally have QB Joe Burrow healthy to start a season and he has all the weapons around him he needs to take his team on a 'Super Bowl of bust' type of run this year. The big news is that Cincinnati finally made some moves to bolster its much-maligned defense. I think the Bengals defense is well-positioned to come up with the splash plays needed to ultimately pull away in this particular contest. Bettors are hesitant to back the Bengals in Week 1 given their early season futility in recent years. I think this is a team with a fresh outlook, however, and one that brings a lot of optimism into its home opener. Take Cincinnati (8*).

Cardinals vs Giants MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy (6-9, 3.97 ERA) enters this matchup quietly putting together a solid campaign. McGreevy has proved particularly effective when pitching on the road, where the Cardinals have backed him to a profitable 6-4 record (+44% ROI) on the moneyline when catching plus-money.

The Giants counter with ace Logan Webb (8-8, 4.21 ERA), but Webb has been noticeably uncharacteristic against St. Louis throughout his career, posting a 3-3 record with a bloated 5.19 ERA across 8 career starts against the Redbirds.

The Bet: Cardinals (3%). 

1% GOLD RUSH on Naomi Osaka/E Rybakina: over 23

FREE PLAY on Nationals +180

3* on A's

PSP Data Driven 1* Under.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Under. The Under is 7-2 in Hamilton last 9 games. The Under is 6-1 in Toronto last 7 games.