Free Sports Picks of the Day

Recommended Bet: Chelsea +125

*Free Play Over 54.5* The Army Black Knights are much weaker defensively this year than they have been in recent seasons. Army is 126th in pass explosiveness allowed. They are 118th in yards per pass attempt allowed. They are 127th in pass downs success rate allowed. Army hasn't even played good passing attacks this season.

Florida Atlantic is a very pass heavy offense. The Owls are 10th nationally in pass play success rate on offense. I think they'll have success with a solid QB and athletic WR's on the outside. The Owls are also very fast paced. In fact, they are first in the nation in pace of play.

Army is a slow paced team, but I think they'll have a lot of success on the ground here. The Owls are 117th in PPA/rush allowed. Army is 2nd in PPA/rush on offense. Army is third nationally in rushing explosiveness and Florida Atlantic is 106th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

We are just below a very key totals number too.

Take the over.

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1* Free Pick on Texans/Jaguars under 42½

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: SMU -9.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the SMU Mustangs.  They have failed to cover the spread in three consecutive games coming in.  They outgained Louisville by 37 yards but lost 41-31 on the road.  They outgained Missouri State by 353 yards but only won that game by 10 as 30.5-point favorites.  And they had a stinker against Boston College in a 25-16 win as 21.5-point home favorites, a BC defense that is much better than it gets credit for and held the Mustangs in check.

But now the Mustangs are off a bye week and have two full weeks to get ready for Virginia.  I think the three straight non-covers has us getting them at a discount now as a single-digit home favorite here in a tremendous spot.  I expect them to put their best foot forward this week.

Virginia is in shambles.  The Cavaliers lost 38-27 to West Virginia as 10.5-point favorites on a neutral.  That loss looks real bad now after WVU has since suffered three consecutive losses to Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Arizona with two in blowout fashion.  Virginia went on to beat Delaware with a backup QB at home.  But the last two efforts coming into this game are the most concerning.

Virginia lost 38-7 at Florida State two weeks ago, and it was just as big of a blowout as the final score showed.  They were outgained by 259 yards by the Seminoles and held to just 205 total yards.  That's a FSU team that was just blasted 44-20 by Louisville last week, and one with a very poor defense.  And last week the Cavaliers escaped with a 28-25 home win over Syracuse as 13.5-point favorites in a win they did not deserve.  They were outgained by 142 yards by the Orange, who were playing with 3rd-string QB Malachi Nelson.  They gave up 430 yards Syracuse.

This Virginia offense is broken with Beau Pribula, who clearly isn't 100% and is not the dual-threat they expected him to be.  He has just 97 rushing yards on 58 carries this season.  The regression bug is finally hitting the Cavaliers after making the ACC title game last season while getting all the breaks in close games along the way.

SMU has elite numbers and is still a ACC title contender.  The Mustangs average 484.2 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 312.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 172.4 yards per game and 2.0 yards per play this season, which are two of the best marks in the country.  Look for them to put everything together off their bye this week against a reeling Cavaliers team, and to finally live up to their potential on the scoreboard with a win and cover.  Bet SMU Saturday.

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(3 Unit Free Play Under) New Mexico is an elite defense. They are first in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. Jaxton Eck is the leader of this Lobos top notch stop unit. Hawaii is still thought of by some as a great offense, but that is very far from the case. Micah Alejado is getting beaten up badly every single week. The offensive line is going to be dominated by New Mexico's defensive front here.

New Mexico will move the ball, but they play at a bottom five tempo and it will take them quite a while to score. They'll control the ball and keep the Hawaii offense on the sideline. 

The winds here are something to note as well. Sustained winds of 20 mph are expected through this contest.

Back the under.

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Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Saints PK

Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football in my view. But he's not going to be the main story here.

Instead it's going to be Stephen Daley, Mario Landino, Tyrique Tucker and Tobi Osunsami. These are Indiana's defensive linemen. They are the keys to the Hoosiers upsetting the Buckeyes.

Indiana has the third most sacks in the country. Ohio State has injuries to its offensive line. The Hoosiers rank 5th in scoring defense allowing only 11.8 points per game and have the seventh-best run defense in the nation.

As we learned last season, it is a mistake to underestimate Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers had five sacks when they defeated the Buckeyes, 13-10, in last year's Big Ten Championship Game.

Julian Sayin is a Heisman Trophy candidate although Smith is the likely winner at this point. But Indiana has a big time passer, too, in Josh Hoover. He has completed 68.2% of his passes for 17 touchdowns. Ohio State does not generate a strong pass rush. Hoover is most dangerous when he has a clean pocket.

Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh provide Hoover with one of the best wide receiver tandems in the country.

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Central Michigan +7

The Key: Western Michigan beat Central Michigan 24-21 last season in a game that decided which team would be going to the MAC Championship Game.  The Broncos went on to win the title.  The Chippewas have not forgotten and will be hungry for revenge at home this time around.  And catching a full TD with the Chippewas at home is a nice price.  Both teams feature run-heavy offenses and this is expected to be a low-scoring game so all the points we get are even more valuable.  Central Michigan has been impressive at home this year going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS including blowout wins over Wyoming by 14 and Akron by 24.  WMU hasn't been able to get margin on the road going 2-1 SU but 1-2 ATS.  The Broncos only beat lowly Rice by 7 and lowly Buffalo by 3 in their last 2 road games.  They also lost by 25 at home to Boise State.  WMU gave up 158 rushing yards to Monmouth, 209 to Rice and 173 to Boise State.  CMU rushed for 339 yards on Wyoming and 332 yards on Akron.  Take Central Michigan.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Toledo vs Eastern Michigan under 53½ -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Virginia Tech -9

Georgia Tech is coming off a big 28-25 upset win over Duke as 4.5-point home dogs last week.  But in that win they lost star RB Justice Haynes, who has rushed for 462 yards and 3 TD this season.  Now they have to go on the road and face a pissed off Virginia Tech team that gave away their last two games.  They lost by 2 to Pitt despite outgaining them by 204 yards.  They then lost on the road at Cal last week, a place that has proven to be very tough to play for these ACC title contenders over the last couple seasons.  Now the Hokies return home to Lane Stadium, which is one of the better home-field advantages in the country.  Georgia Tech previously lost to Colorado at home, and that loss looks real bad now.  They lost by 21 to Tennessee, a SEC team that is down a few notches this season.  And they lost by 7 at Stanford, which is getting blown out by everyone else.  The win over Duke doesn't look that great either with Duke playing such a soft schedule leading into that game.  I expect the Hokies to handle the Yellow Jackets by double-digits.  Give me Virginia Tech.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Argentinos Juniors +100

BIG Saturday Card has the 2026 CFB DOG OF THE YEAR Tonight, an Early Red Zone Side 2 TOP Totals and MLB A.L.C.S. Comp play below
 
The Saturday CFB Comp play is on Virginia Tech at 3:30 eastern. The Hokies have lost the last 2 after opening the season 4-0 and now take on a Regressing GA. Tech team that is not close to as good as they were last season and lost their only road game to Stanford. The Hokies fit a nice system that has won and covered  all 9 times for conference home favorites of 8 or more for teams off a conference road favored loss if they were favored from -4 to -14 the total is less than 69 and they have dog loss revenge. These teams win on average by a 36-11 score. Look for VA. Tech to win and cover. GL Rob V-
 
SU: 9-0
ATS: 9-0
 
Team: 36.0
Opp: 11.2
 
 
Nov 01, 1997 - Sat 11 1997 WYO SDST home - - - - 41-17 -14 None 24 10 - - - W W - 0
Oct 09, 1999 08:00 Sat 7 1999 UTEP SMU home - - - - 42-28 -9.5 None 14 4.5 - - - W W - 0
Nov 06, 1999 07:00 Sat 11 1999 OKLA MIZ home - - - - 37-0 -11 None 37 26 - - - W W - 0
Nov 27, 1999 07:00 Sat 14 1999 OKLA OKST home - - - - 44-7 -13.5 None 37 23.5 - - - W W - 0
Nov 11, 2000 07:00 Sat 12 2000 TCU FRES home - - - - 24-7 -13 None 17 4 - - - W W - 0
Nov 14, 2014 09:00 Fri 12 2014 CFL TLS home 3-0 14-7 14-0 0-0 31-7 -20 55 24 4 -17 -6.5 -10.5 W W U 0
Oct 21, 2017 10:45 Sat 8 2017 WAST COLO home 0-0 14-0 7-0 7-0 28-0 -10.5 52.5 28 17.5 -24.5 -3.5 -21.0 W W U 0
Nov 03, 2018 07:30 Sat 10 2018 ORE UCLA home 14-0 7-7 7-7 14-7 42-21 -13 62.5 21 8 0.5 4.25 -3.75 W W O 0
Nov 13, 2021 06:30 Sat 11 2021 ORST STAN home 7-0 7-0 14-7 7-7 35-14 -13.0 56.0 21 8.0 -7.0 0.5 -7.5 W W U 0
 
Oct 17, 2026 03:30 Sat 7 2026 VTCH GTCH home - - - - - -9.5 56.5

Wyoming -7.5

Wyoming and NIU meet on Saturday and we’re on Wyoming laying the points. NIU comes in 0-5 and they have been abysmal on both sides of the ball. They are averaging just 12.4 ppg while conceding 34.6 ppg against. They’ve been unable to find any sort of rhythm and Wyoming is going to be another tough task for them. Wyoming comes in off an overtime win against San Jose State and they have been dominant defensively. They are allowing just 20 ppg and they’re going to blitz this NIU side all game long. Look for them to get a big push up front and cause a lot of issues in this NIU backfield. This is a completely lopsided matchup and the value is with Wyoming here. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the Wyoming ATS. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Saturday FREE NCAAF ATS Play

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 UCLA is laying 2.5–3 at home against a 4-1 Wisconsin team on Saturday night at the Rose Bowl, with the total sitting in the low-to-mid 40s. The number has been short and relatively stable in that range. Wisconsin is the better ATS side this season, and a short home favorite against a team already 4-1 is the tax. The points are the work.

 Wisconsin sits at 4-1 (2-0 Big Ten), averaging 31.6 points while allowing 16.6. The Badgers have been efficient on both sides of the ball (6.2 yards per play on offense, strong defensive numbers), with a perfect red-zone scoring rate and solid control in recent wins. They opened with a loss to Notre Dame but have since reeled off four straight victories, including a 24-20 road win at Penn State and a 31-3 home win over Michigan State. Wisconsin is 3-2 against the spread and 3-2 on the total. Their defense has limited opponents to roughly 16–17 points per game, and the offense has been balanced enough to stay in games without relying on explosive variance.

UCLA is 5-0 (3-0 Big Ten) and ranked around No. 12, averaging 39.2 points while allowing 18.0. The Bruins have covered in every game so far (5-0 ATS) and have wins over California, San Diego State, Purdue, Maryland, and a 17-15 road upset at Oregon as double-digit underdogs. Their offense has been productive, particularly on the ground (over 1,200 rushing yards), but the quarterback situation is a major variable: Nico Iamaleava left the Oregon game with injuries and is expected to be limited or out, elevating Ty Dieffenbach or another option. UCLA’s defense has been opportunistic and strong in key spots, though the Oregon win was a tight, low-scoring grind. They are 3-2 on the total.

Power ratings and models generally view the teams as close on a neutral field, with UCLA’s undefeated record and recent cover streak supporting a short home favorite. Wisconsin’s defensive metrics and recent ATS success against quality opponents keep the number tight.

This is a physical Big Ten road test at the historic Rose Bowl. Wisconsin’s defense, which has limited scoring and yards effectively, faces a UCLA offense that has been efficient but may operate without its primary quarterback. The Bruins’ rushing attack and opportunistic defense will try to control tempo and create short fields. Wisconsin’s ability to stay balanced and avoid turnovers (they have been solid in that department) gives them a path to keep the game within a field goal or force a push/cover scenario.

The total in the low-to-mid 40s reflects both defenses’ ability to limit scoring. UCLA has trended over in some games but under in others, including the Oregon win; Wisconsin has mixed results but has shown it can grind. Weather at the Rose Bowl looks warm and clear. Any confirmed absence of Iamaleava tilts the matchup further toward Wisconsin’s physical style and the points.

UCLA leads the all-time series roughly 7-4. The teams have not met since 2000, when Wisconsin won 21-20. Wisconsin has taken the last three meetings overall (1993, 1998, and 2000). Games have tended to be competitive, with Wisconsin never winning by more than seven points in the series. Road games have been close historically, and the short number this week fits the pattern of tight contests rather than blowouts.

Key trends include Wisconsin’s success in lower-scoring or one-score environments against UCLA, and the general tendency for short favorites in Big Ten games to face cover pressure when the underdog has a strong defensive profile and recent form. The sample is small given the long gap between meetings, but the competitive nature of past results supports the idea that a 2.5–3 point home favorite is not a large edge.

UCLA is the undefeated home team with the cover streak and the higher scoring average, which is why the number has settled at a short 2.5–3 rather than something larger. Wisconsin’s 4-1 record, defensive strength, recent ATS success (including a road cover at Penn State), and the fact that short home favorites against teams already 4-1 carry a built-in tax make the points the side the number is arguing for. The quarterback uncertainty for UCLA adds another layer that favors the underdog staying within the number.

If the juice on Wisconsin +3 stays reasonable, the points with the team that has the better recent ATS profile and a defense capable of keeping the game tight is the lean. Shop the number (it has moved between 2.5 and 3.5 in spots) and monitor the UCLA quarterback situation through the week. In a Big Ten matchup with both teams playing well, the short home favorite is the tax; the points are the work.

Luke Fickell is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS at Wisconsin this season, including a 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS stretch after the Notre Dame loss, with the last two covers coming as a double-digit home favorite against Eastern Michigan and as a short road underdog at Penn State.

Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS overall and has already covered as a 9.5-point road underdog at Penn State. The Badgers are 1-0 ATS in their only true road game this season and are coming off a bye after a 31-3 home win over Michigan State.

UCLA is 5-0 ATS and is laying a short number at home after a ranked road win. Teams that are 5-0 ATS and coming off a ranked road win have covered less often when the next number is a field goal or less against a team that is already 3-2 ATS.

Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS and has covered in three of its last four games, including the road upset at Penn State. The Badgers are getting points on the road against a short home favorite that the market has already moved toward the visitor.

The number opened UCLA -3 and is now -2.5. Wisconsin is the side that has already covered as a road underdog this year. UCLA is the side that has not been asked to lay a short number after a ranked road win. That is the spot.

Bet the road dog of 3 or fewer in a Big Ten game against a home favorite that just lost its starting quarterback.
Road dogs of 3 or fewer against home favorites with a backup or first-time starter at quarterback (since the early 2000s): 27-14 ATS (65.9%). At -110, 27 wins and 14 losses is +11.5 unit$, ROI=28.0%.

Bet Wisconsin as a road underdog of 3 or fewer.
Wisconsin’s ATS record as a road underdog of 3 or fewer in conference games (last 15 years available): 8-4 (66.7%). At -110, that is +3.3 unit$, ROI=27.5%.

Bet against a short home favorite of 3 or fewer that is missing its starting quarterback.
Home favorites of 3 or fewer missing their starting quarterback for the first time that season (since 2005): 11-22 ATS (33.3%). At -110, 11 wins and 22 losses is -12.1 unit$, ROI=-36.7%

My selection is on the 'under' between Notre Dame and BYU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

This has the potential to be the game of the week but I'm expecting it to be a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair. Notre Dame checks in off a 58-7 dismantling of a bad Stanford team last week. The Irish did whatever they wanted on offense all afternoon long in that no-doubter. They'll obviously be up against a much more difficult challenge on Saturday as they head on the road to take on undefeated BYU. The Cougars have posted back-to-back 'under' results, allowing 10 points against both TCU and Iowa State. This game does represent a step up in class but I think they'll be up for it, noting they've given up a grand total of 67 points in five games this season. Notre Dame's offense gets a lot of the attention but the Irish defense has been dominant this season as well. They've allowed more than 13 points in a game just once through six contests, that coming in a 37-26 win at a good North Carolina team two weeks ago. Even in games where they've essentially called off the dogs and lifted starters, the Irish have still kept opposing offenses at bay. BYU knows its clearest path to pulling off the 'upset' here comes by taking care of the football and grinding it out on offense, effectively shortening proceedings. Take the under (8*).

Kansas v Kansas State NCAAF Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Kansas State Wildcats have won 17 straight in the Sunflower Showdown, but the margins have tightened lately. Two of the last three meetings were one-possession games, and this year's K-State team hasn’t looked like a group ready to pull away. Both teams enter 0-2 in conference play, so there is no talent gap here that justifies the hype around the home team.

The Jayhawks opened as a significant underdog after last week's loss to unbeaten Utah, and the line has since come down, a sign that sharper money agrees the market overreacted. I’ll take the points in a rivalry game that should come down to the fourth quarter.

The Bet: Kansas ATS (3%). 

1*

Free Play – Take #214 Oregon State -18 over Washington St. (6:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, October 17)

The brand new Pac-12 has a little buzz about it. Boise State is positioned to be 11-1 and possibly returning the CFB Playoffs with another quality club. However, the bigger surprise is happening in Corvallis at Oregon State. The Beavers have the top passing offense in the country led by Brandon Atkinson who came from Mercer, yea that Mercer. And here’s a trivia question for you. Most would assume Jeremiah Smith of Ohio State leads the country in receiving yards. But no, its Jesse Legree, a freshman at Oregon State. The Beavers will face the other Pac-12 program left for dead, Washington State, who is 1-5 and only averaging 18.5 PPG and a measly 11 PPG on the road. Conversely, these eager Beavers average 41.8 PPG. It’s a big spread, yet home teams,  after beating the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 80%), playing a team with a losing record are 50-17 ATS, winning by an average of 24.8 PPG.

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1*

For my best free pick on the board here for Saturday in College Football action I am looking at Notre Dame traveling to take on BYU here in prime time action. Normally I fade the Irish or at least just avoid them which is what I have done this season but here I think we have an opportunity with them as they face a team that is 5-0 both SU and ATS and getting double digits which should entice a majority of bettors on this game IMO and based on early action I think I am on point here. Irish were screwed last year not getting in the playoffs and I am sure this team has heard the nay sayers saying this team has played no one. I think BYU is a big public dog here and Notre Dame will have zero mercy here on Saturday. 

Play on Notre Dame lay the points rotation #179

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