Free Sports Picks of the Day

Ricky's 1* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Over is 4-2 in the Padres last 6 home head to head meetings

- The total has gone Over in 7 of the Padres last 12 games.

- The Over is 6-4 in the Diamondbacks last 10 games

Verdict: We should see plenty of Runs in this game.

1* Bet on Aces/Portland Fire: over 175½

Free Total Annihilator On Fever vs Mercury under 174½ -110

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Thursday free winner; Seattle Mariners.

Game 975.

3:40 PM PST/6:40 PM EST.

Very quietly, the Seattle Mariners have taken over the top-spot in the American League West, at 47-46. However, just 5.5-game separate the top-four teams in the division. So, Seattle must keep their foot on the gas and try to widen the cushion. They have dropped Games 1 and 2 of this series to the Miami Marlins. Miami sits in a tie for second place in the competitive, NL East, 51-42, just 3.0-games back. Granted, Seattle leaves a lot to be desired when they travel, going just 20-26, compared to Miami’s home mark of 30-17. However, I think this matchup is an interesting one. Prior to losses in the first two games of this series, the Mariners were on a 5-1 run. They possess some ugly numbers offensively. But their lineup started to explode a bit. The reason why they’ve achieved and maintained success is because of their pitching, which ranks fourth in the Majors, with a team ERA of 3.54. As far as the Marlins go, both offensively and on the mound, their numbers are solid. The rank 11th in scoring and 10th in team ERA. I mentioned a moment ago, there’s a reason why I like Seattle. It’s because of today’s starters. Bryce Miller and Janson Junk are scheduled. The Mariners right-hander is a very impressive 4-2 with an anemic ERA of 1.71 this season. Believe it or not, he has not allowed a single opponent, whether as a starter or a reliever, to put up better than three earned runs in any appearance this season. Away from home, he is a remarkable 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA. The Marlins right-hander is just 3-5 with a whopping ERA of 4.80 this season. Over his last three outings, he has gotten walloped, going 1-2 with a whopping ERA of 9.19. At home in 2026, he has not been impressive either, going just 1-3 with a 4.70 ERA. I really feel Seattle will show what they made of here, as their lineup will beat up on a struggling starter, while their pitching staff takes care of the rest. Take the Mariners. Thank you.

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Seattle Mariners -118

I like the spot for the Seattle Mariners tonight.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Miami Marlins.  They also have a major advantage on the mound and should be bigger favorites as a result.

Bryce Miller has been lights out this season, going 4-2 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in eight starts while allowing just 10 earned runs and 35 base runners in 52 2/3 innings with 62 K's.  He is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball with the Mariners having a 3.54 ERA this season.

Janson Junk is 3-5 with a 4.80 ERA in 11 starts for the Marlins this season.  He has allowed 32 earned runs in 60 innings with just 43 K's.  The Marlins have a very taxed bullpen after three straight wins by two runs or fewer.  Junk will be making his first start since May 25th and cannot be expected to go very deep into this game.  He threw just 61 pitches in his final rehab start on Saturday.  Bet the Mariners Thursday.

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FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 7/9:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday is with the Milwaukee Brewers with the money-line versus the St. Louis Cardinals listing both starting pitchers Logan Henderson and Andre Pallante. Milwaukee (58-34) had won four games in a row before their 5-1 loss on the road against the Cardinals on Wednesday. The Brewers have still won 32 of their last 45 games when priced as a money-line favorite up to a -150 price. They have also won 12 of their last 17 games on the road with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. St. Louis (48-43) snapped a four-game losing streak with the win last night — but they have lost 8 of their last 12 games after scoring five or less runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also lost 7 of their last 9 games at home. Take Milwaukee with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer is on a 17 of 23 (74%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays — and he continues his fifth Men’s World Cup handicapping campaign on an 8-3-2 (73%) run this summer which fuels a 25 of 40 (63%) World Cup long-term mark! Now Frank KICKS OFF the Quarterfinals of the Knockout Stage by furthering his 21 of 31 (68%) World Cup sides mark with the Morocco-France goal-line winner on Fox-TV at 4:00 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

1* Free Play on Storm/Dream under 168½ -110

Athletics +121

Locking this in early. The A’s are worth a move against the Tigers. This is a great fade spot on Tigers’ starter Framber Valdez. He has allowed 9 runs combined over his last two starts and he just has been so inconsistent all season long. The A’s have a solid offensive approach and this is a big game for them to right the ship and put an end to this losing streak. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the A'S ML. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Thursday FREE MLB ML Play

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This is a play on the ATHLETICS for our Thursday Free Play. The Athletics are running cold as they have lost five straight games and nine of their last 10 and the two losses to open this series have dropped them to under .500 on the road. This is the ideal buy low spot as they faced the top two starters in the Tigers rotation in Tarik Skubal and Troy Melton and have a better matchup here. This would have been a tough matchup over the previous few years but Framber Valdez is struggling in his first season with the Tigers. Overall, he has a 4.29 ERA and 1.38 WHIP and has allowed four runs or more in five of his last nine starts. He opened the season with two solid home starts where he allowed one run over 13.1 innings but he has a 5.03 ERA over his last six home outings with the Tigers going 2-4 in those games. The Athletics are No. 5 in slugging percentage and No. 7 in wOBA against left-handed pitching. The Tigers are playing the opposite with four straight wins while going 7-1 in their last eight games and we sell high. Jack Perkins closed June on a solid four-game run but allowed seven runs in 3.2 innings in his last start against Miami and we get him in a nice rebound spot. Play (967) Athletics

Fargo is coming off a profitable 2-1 MLB Wednesday with the Winners on the +138 Angels and +103 Red Sox and he continues the week to keep rolling red hot. TWO Winners for Thursday as we go for the PERFECT 2-0 SWEEP!

Dave's Thursday Free Play:

1* on Detroit Tigers -123

The Key: The A's are in a world of hurt offensively right now with all their injuries.  They are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall and have scored a total of 3 runs in 2 games against the Tigers thus far in this series.  It won't get any easier for them against Framber Valdez, who is 9-4 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 16 lifetime starts against the A's. Valdez is 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his last 4 starts against the A's.  The A's will be going with Suarez to open and making this pretty much a bullpen game.  The Tigers are 7-1 in their last 8 games overall and playing as well as anyone as they work their way back into this AL Central race.  Take Detroit.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Marlins +140

Jim Feist’s free play for Thursday sends you on the Seattle Mariners to defeat the Miami Marlins. Seattle holds the obvious advantage on the mound tonight with Bryce Miller going for them. Miller comes in at 4-2 with a stellar 1.71 ERA while Miami will start the much-more-hittable Janson Junk (3-5, 4.80 ERA). Gettin the ball to Miller first should give Seattle the best chance to control things early.

Miami actually won Wednesday so they’ll have an advantage of not having anything to play for, but Seattle was completely shut out so there’s plenty of reason to believe this lineup comes out with some urgency. Miller is in good form and Miami could be forced to lean on their bullpen again after Wednesday’s victory. Those are both reasons why Seattle should respond here and get it done.

Jim Feist’s FREE Play: Seattle Mariners 

AAA Sports' Selection: Indiana Fever (ATS).

Indiana isn't having a completely dominant season. But, it's definitely in striking distance of making some big movement in the standings.

The Fever have owned this matchup in the past with a 7-3 record over the L10 games (7-2 versus the spread L9).

Phoenix has been playing well lately. But, it's just 2-6 against the spread over it's L8 games played at home.

Don't forget that the Mercury are also a poor 8-17 over their L25 games since the end of last year.

We're on IND.

FREE PLAY on Rockies +127

PSP Data Driven 1* Over.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Over. The Over is 5-0 in Norway last 5 games. The Over is 4-2 in England last 6 games.

For my best free pick on the board for in the WNBA I am looking at the Seattle Storm at the Atlanta Dream. We should see a ton of interest I believe in the Storm at this price from the bulk of the bettors. Seattle is coming in off an upset road win at the Sparks and Atlanta has struggled head to head with Seattle losing 3 of the last 4.  Atlanta 6 straight non covers in a row and this high line should have bettors running to the other side but I see Atlanta coming out bound and determined in this one. Atlanta needs to start stacking wins. Look for them to get up big at the half and hold on tight for a cover for us. 

Play on the Atlanta Dream lay the points rotation #636

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Seattle owns a record four games worse than Miami, yet the Mariners are installed as a significant road favorite. That's exactly the type of situation where we trust what the oddsmakers are telling us rather than the standings.

Our database shows that when the team with the inferior record is favored because the market views it as the stronger current club, those teams have been profitable on both the moneyline and run line. The edge is especially strong laying -1.5 runs, producing +82.18 units with a 9.6% ROI.

This is also a major Luck Factor play. Miami carries a +6.17 Luck Rating, while Seattle sits at -4.29, creating a substantial 10.46-point Luck Factor gap. That suggests the Marlins have benefited from favorable variance, while the Mariners have underachieved relative to their underlying performance, making Seattle a strong candidate for positive regression.

Our Luck Factor compares a team's actual record to what advanced analytics indicate its record should be based on underlying performance. For example, if one team has won three more games than expected while its opponent has won three fewer than expected, the Luck Factor gap would be six. Larger gaps often identify teams whose true strength is not yet fully reflected by their records, creating value before the market fully adjusts.

Seattle also owns a significant edge on the mound.

Bryce Miller has returned to ace form with a brilliant 1.71 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, and 62 strikeouts in just 52.2 innings.Over his last six starts he has allowed only six earned runs, striking out 48 while issuing just three walks. He has struck out at least seven batters in six of his last eight starts and is averaging nearly seven strikeouts per outing. His pinpoint control (only four walks all season) makes it difficult for opponents to manufacture offense.

Janson Junk has been far more volatile. While his overall 4.80 ERA isn't terrible, his recent form is concerning. Over his last three starts he owns a 9.19 ERA, allowing 16 earned runs in only 15.2 innings, with opponents batting him around consistently. He has surrendered four home runs during that stretch and simply hasn't missed enough bats, averaging fewer than four strikeouts per start.

Seattle's pitching advantage doesn't end with the starters. The Mariners bullpen has quietly been one of the league's elite units, carrying a 2.75 ERA compared to 3.75 for Miami's relief corps. That becomes especially important on the runline, where protecting and extending late leads is critical. 

The underlying team metrics also favor Seattle. Mariners pitchers own better staff ERA, WHIP, and on-base percentage allowed than Miami, while Seattle's starters have been substantially more effective throughout the season. 

Finally, this is a classic market-respect spot. Seattle enters after dropping the first two games of the series, yet the betting market still installed the Mariners as a meaningful road favorite. When a team with the inferior record is laying this type of price on the road, it reflects a significant difference in true team strength rather than recent results.

Between the enormous Luck Factor regression edge, a dominant starting pitching mismatch, the superior bullpen, and strong market support, Seattle is in excellent position not only to win, but to win by multiple runs.