Free Sports Picks of the Day

Browse all available free picks, predictions and matchup analysis for current in-season sports below.

The selections here are complimentary plays posted daily from sports betting and handicapping experts.

These picks are a secondary addition to a handicapper’s stronger releases and best bets of the day.

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Saturday, July 11, 2026

Calvin King

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 7:15 PM in 8h
MLB | ATL vs STL
Play on: UNDER 9 -120
Game Analysis

[1%] Free Play on Cardinals under 9 -120

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 03:30 am
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Ricky Tran

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 4:05 PM in 5h
MLB | COL vs SFO
Play on: OVER 8½ -105
Game Analysis

Ricky's 1* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Over is 4-1 in San Francisco's last 5 games.

- The Over is 4-2 in San Francisco's last 6 games at home.

- The Over is 6-3 in San Francisco's last 9 games played in July.

Verdict: We should see plenty of Runs in this game.

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 12:33 am
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Matt Sullivan

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 6:00 PM in 7h
WNBA | Mercury vs Aces
Play on: OVER 169½ -110
Game Analysis

1* Bet on Mercury/Aces: over 169½

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 09:01 am
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Totals Guru

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 4:00 PM in 5h
WNBA | Fire vs Dream
Play on: UNDER 174½ -115
Game Analysis

Free Total Annihilator On Portland Fire vs Dream under 174½ -115

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 09:15 am
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Joseph D'Amico

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 4:00 PM in 5h
WNBA | Portland Fire vs Dream
Play on: Portland Fire +13½ -105 at Bovada
Game Analysis

My MLB is ON FIRE, riding a 35-15 RUN. Today we have 2 BIG MLB WINNERS to BURN THE BOOKS: 10-1 TOP RATED RELEASE & my SATURDAY SMASH WINNER.

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: WNBA- Portland Fire.

Game 649.

1:00 PM PST/4:00 PM EST.

I am well aware the Portland Fire are just 9-13 this season, while the Atlanta Dream are 13-9. I am also aware the Dream took down the Fire back at the end of May on the road, 86-66. But sports betting isn’t about who wins. Sports betting is about who covers. Currently, I don’t believe there’s another team who is point spread poison like that of Atlanta. As they enter this contest, they have failed to cover seven consecutive games, all played as a favorite, by the way. Meanwhile, Portland comes into this matchup going 3-0, against the spread their last three games, and overall, 6-2 ATS their last eight contests. The WNBA is one toughest sports to consistently handicap with success. But I just feel the oddsmakers are giving the Dream way too much credit here. They have failed to cover the last two games played as a double-digit favorite. While their numbers are respectable, ranking eighth in scoring in fourth on defense. This is a team that just doesn’t get bettors paid. I see this as a true value play. Take the Fire. Thank you.

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 10:00 am
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Hunter Price

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 10:50 PM in 11h
Fighting | Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint-Denis
Play on: Paddy Pimblett +130 at circa
Game Analysis

1* Free Pick on Paddy Pimblett +130

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 06:33 am
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Jack Jones

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 6:10 PM in 7h
MLB | Phillies vs Tigers
Play on: Tigers +120 at Buckeye
Game Analysis

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Detroit Tigers +120

I cashed the Tigers in a 10-2 win over the Phillies in Game 1 yesterday.  I'm back on them again at even better value as home underdogs in Game 2 today.

The Tigers are one of the hottest teams in baseball going 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with all nine wins coming by 3 runs or more.  They are getting back into the AL Central race and will be motivated to finish strong in their final series before the All-Star Break.

Casey Mize has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season. He is 4-5 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 13 starts. Mize has done his best work at home, going 2-2 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in six starts in Detroit.

Cristopher Sanchez has huge home/road splits this season. Sanchez is 3-3 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in eight road starts, allowing 28 earned runs and 9 homers in 47 1/3 innings. Bet the Tigers Saturday.

No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 8-plus years! He is riding a 7024-6134 Run L3225 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $311,850! He was the No. 6 Ranked Overall Capper in 2022 as well as the No. 8 Ranked Overall Capper in 2023! He finished as the No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper in 2024 with his $1,000/game players up $174,860 since January 1st, 2022!

Jack Jones has SIX Top-10 MLB Finishes (#4 2024, #8 2023, #5 2019, #6 2014, #6 2010, #4 2009) to his credit! He finished as the No. 8 Ranked MLB Capper in 2023 with his $1,000/game players up $21,110 in 2023! He backed it up by finishing as the No. 4 Ranked MLB Capper in 2024 with $1,000/game players up $34,230! He has delivered a 289-242 MLB Run since last season!

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Pick Released on Jul 11 at 09:11 am
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Bobby Conn

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 10:50 PM in 11h
Fighting | Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint-Denis
Play on: Paddy Pimblett +130 at circa
Game Analysis

1* Free Play on Paddy Pimblett +130

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 07:31 am
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Ray Monohan

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 5:00 PM in 6h
Soccer | England vs Norway
Play on: England -105 at Bovada
Game Analysis

England -105

Locking this in early. England and Norway meet in the Quarterfinals and this is a good price on England. After a 3-2 win in Mexico, England has all the confidence in the world. They’re feeding off the fan energy and they have one of the best attacks in the entire field. This is where the stars step up and we’re going to see Kane and Bellingham both produce a lot of scoring looks. Norway has had a great run so far, but this England team is far too determined and playing well. Back England. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on ENGLAND ML. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Saturday FREE World Cup Soccer ML Play

2-1 FRIDAY! 348-289 55% +2979 since Mid-Dec! The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. A BIG 3× Play Card is up for today, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 09:25 am
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Jimmy Boyd

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 1:00 PM in 2h
WNBA | Liberty vs Lynx
Play on: Liberty +5 -105 at Bovada
Game Analysis

1* Free Pick on Liberty +5

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 10:31 am
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Dave Price

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 4:10 PM in 5h
MLB | Red Sox vs Mets
Play on: Red Sox +140 at Ace
Game Analysis

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Boston Red Sox +140

**4X Top 5 MLB Handicapper!** Dave is on a 2894-2605 MLB Run since June 8th, 2011 to really put a beating on the books in baseball! His $1,000/game investors won $15,660 in MLB in 2023! He finished as the #1 Ranked MLB Capper in 2024 with his $1,000/game investors winning $41,550 for an even bigger season! Dave is in the midst of a 211-138 MLB 7* Run as well as a 343-287 MLB Run since last year! He is the #9 MLB Capper in 2026 this season! Give your book the beating it deserves today and hop on board for Dave's Saturday MLB 3-Pack for $49.95! By doing so you'll earn access to his 7* MLB Total of the Month along with two 6* picks on the diamond for you to crush your book with today ladies and gents! Dave guarantees you'll cash in a profit or you get Sunday's MLB picks for FREE!

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 09:55 am
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Info Plays

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 7:10 PM in 8h
MLB | Cubs vs Reds
Play on: Cubs -112 at Ace
Game Analysis

1* FREE INFO PLAY Cubs -112

Pick Released on Jul 10 at 08:51 pm
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John Martin

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 7:05 PM in 8h
MLB | HOU vs TEX
Play on: OVER 8½ -105
Game Analysis

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Astros/Rangers OVER 8.5

*Top 10 Overall Capper 4 of L10 Years!*

*#1 Ranked MLB Capper in 2008!*

*#10 Ranked MLB Capper in 2009!*

*#4 Ranked MLB Capper in 2010!*

*#8 Ranked MLB Capper in 2019!*

Come bet with a proven winner on the bases today and get your hands on my Saturday All-Inclusive MLB 6-Pack for $49.99! This card features TWO 5 Unit BEST BETS in the Rockies/Giants & Braves/Cardinals games! You are GUARANTEED-to-PROFIT or I'll send you Sunday's MLB plays for FREE!

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 10:08 am
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Rocky Atkinson

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 7:05 PM in 8h
MLB | Astros vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers -115 at betus
Game Analysis

Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Saturday 7-11-26

Houston @ Texas  (7:05 PM EST)
Play On:  Texas -115

The Houston Astros take on the Rangers in Texas on Saturday night.  Houston is 46-50 SU overall this year while Texas comes in with a 48-46 SU overall record on the season.  Texas is 24-8 last 3 years playing at home in July.  Texas is 10-4 last 14 games overall.  Houston is 1-4 last 5 games against AL West Division opponents.  Peter Lambert is 3-17 in his career against division opponents including 0-8 on the road.  Lambert is 1-13 when pitching on the road in the second half of the season.  We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocketman has hit 67% in the WNBA this year!  Rocky Atkinson has his WNBA PLAY OF THE DAY going Saturday. One of the BEST HANDICAPPERS in the world is on an impressive 64-43 60% WNBA run over his last 109 picks! Join the same handicapper that has made $1,000/game bettors $16,200 since May 19, 2022!

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Rocky Atkinson has a TOP 8* CFL BEST BET for Sunday. One of the BEST HANDICAPPERS in the world cashed 75% last year with all CFL picks and is now 1-0 100% in the CFL this year!  Don't miss out!

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 10:25 am
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Steve Janus

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 9:10 PM in 10h
MLB | ARI vs LAD
Play on: UNDER 9 -105
Game Analysis

1* Free Sharp Play on Diamondbacks vs Dodgers under 9 -105

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 12:00 am
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Rob Vinciletti

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 5:00 PM in 6h
Soccer | England vs Norway
Play on: England -110 at Bovada
Game Analysis

LOADED CARD up with TIER 1 WORLD CUP TOTAL, HOLLOWAY-McGREGOR TOTAL, WNBA EARLY 3X PERFECT BANGER, MLB and a TRIPLE PERFECT CFL TOTAL Comp play below

The Saturday Comp Play is on England to advance at 5 eastern. England survived the Altitude, the Humidity and a home team that was undefeated on their soil in 13 years. Mexico pressed the 3 lions the entire game only to fall short in a 3-2 loss to England. Mexico had not conceded a single goal. England had never won in Mexico and they now carry that Momentum into a game with Norway who has opened eyes in this tournament but lost to France in the toughest game they played. England has dominated the series of late. Kane and Haaland are in the running for the golden boot which also makes for a nice story line. This the furthest Norway has ever made it in the World Cup. England has more quality and we will back them to advance. GL Rob V-

Pick Released on Jul 10 at 10:05 pm
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Matt Fargo

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 8:40 PM in 9h
MLB | Blue Jays vs Padres
Play on: Blue Jays -102 at betonline
Game Analysis

This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our Saturday Free Play. Toronto needed something positive heading into the break after three straight losses where it scored just one run total and so far, that has happened as it has won three straight games with the offense putting up 24 runs with the pitching allowing just six runs. The Blue Jays have gotten it back to three games under .500 on the road with three of those given up by Shane Bieber last night in a must needed positive start for him. Trey Yesavage has put together four straight strong outings after a pair of bad starts to open June. The recent four starts have been good for a 2.45 ERA and he remains on the road where he has been excellent with a 2.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in six starts. The Padres continue their slide as they are back to two games under .500 with one of the worst offenses in baseball. Walker Buehler was one of the positives this season but he has been lit up over his last two starts, allowing 16 runs over nine innings. Play (979) Toronto Blue Jays

Fargo is coming off a disgusting 0-4 Friday including 0-3 in baseball and while bad days happen, he vows to get it back and add to the great start to the MLB season. THREE Winners Saturday plus CFL Game of the Week!

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 09:32 am
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Jim Feist

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 7:10 PM in 8h
MLB | Cubs vs Reds
Play on: Cubs -115 at Bovada
Game Analysis

Chicago Cubs starter Javier Assad has been one of the biggest surprises through the first month-plus of baseball this season, posting a stellar 6-1 record while giving his team a chance to win every outing. Cincinnati will try and take advantage behind starter Nick Lodolo, who sports a bloated 4.68 ERA and hasn't been able to consistently string together quality starts. Friday's series opener was rough for Chicago as they were shutout, but this lineup has been one of the NL's best all season long and should be poised to bounce back. Look for Chicago to make their chances count this one, receive a solid start from Assad and take the series with a win on the road.

Jim Feist's FREE Play: Chicago Cubs. 

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 06:17 am
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Chip Chirimbes

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 2:10 PM in 3h
MLB | A's vs White Sox
Play on: A's -108 at betus
Game Analysis

Chip’s MLB Triple Play Winners

Chip Chirimbes, Las Vegas Hilton winner and MLB handicapping champion and Big Game Player went 2-1 in MLB Friday winning his Money Game Cincinnati 4-0 over the Cubs and he is 5-1 86% the past two days. Chip’s MLB Megabucks release are now 23-17 57% on the season. Saturday, receive his Highest-rated MLB Megabucks winner between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati, his Money Game between Atlanta and St. Louis, and his Vegas Hotlinewinner between Philadelphia and Detroit. Get it ALL for just $59!

Chip’s FREE MLB winner

Athletics at White Sox 1:45 ET

A’s over White Sox - These two clubs had decent starts to the season but have split their action the past month. The Athletics have started to swoon and have lost seven straight while Chicago is slugging their way into the playoffs. The A’s will start Gage Jump (3-3, 3.77 ERA) who has been bombed last last two starts surrendered 11 runs in 7.2 innings on 19 hits and four home runs. Those are the only HR’s he has giving up in his career. He reverts back to form today. Take ATHLETICS.  

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 07:14 am
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Brandon Lee

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 7:05 PM in 8h
MLB | Astros vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers -116 at Ace
Game Analysis

Saturday's Free MLB Pick 

PLAY ON: Rangers -116

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 01:24 am
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Alex Smart

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 10:20 PM in 11h
Fighting | Mario Barrios vs Cory Sandhagen
Play on: Mario Barrios +135 at PlayMGM
Game Analysis

I have been grinding these cards for years now, and nothing lights me up quite like a rematch where the guy who got finished last time has spent the better part of a decade turning himself into a completely different animal, that is exactly what we have on the main card of UFC 329 tonight when Cory Sandhagen meets Mario Bautista again. Sandhagen still sits as a modest favorite, somewhere in the -135 to -150 range depending on where you look, which puts Bautista out there at a savory +110 to +135. I am taking the dog every single time at those numbers, and I want to walk you through the math, the history, and the angles that make this one of the cleaner underdog spots on a stacked International Fight Week card.

First, the rematch tax, historical UFC rematch data shows the original winner repeats roughly 62 to 67 percent of the time overall, that sounds bad for Bautista until you dig into the pricing. When the first-fight loser is getting plus money in the rematch, and especially when that first fight was a quick finish rather than a dominant decision, the original dog cashes at a higher rate than the implied probability. Sandhagen needed just three minutes and thirty-one seconds to snatch an armbar on a young Bautista back in January 2019, both men making their UFC debuts. That was seven years ago. Bautista has gone 10-1 since, the only loss a competitive decision to Umar Nurmagomedov. The math on that kind of gap is simple, Experience gained equals fights completed times skill differential plus camps refined. Bautista has stacked roughly a decade of high-level reps while Sandhagen’s recent body of work has a glaring pattern.

Sandhagen’s striking numbers remain elite for the division, he lands 4.86 significant strikes per minute at 45 percent accuracy while absorbing only 3.47, good for a positive differential of plus 1.39. His switch-stance creativity still makes him a nightmare for pure boxers. Yet his takedown defense sits at a soft 56 percent, and the last two times he faced genuine high-level pressure wrestlers, Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov, he dropped unanimous decisions. In those five-round wars he was out-wrestled badly, absorbing volume while spending long stretches on his back. Bautista’s own numbers tell a different story, he lands 5.30 significant strikes per minute at 48 percent accuracy, a higher volume and slightly cleaner accuracy than Sandhagen, while averaging 1.91 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 38 percent accuracy. That is a 66 percent higher takedown rate. His submission average of 0.8 per fifteen minutes dwarfs Sandhagen’s 0.2. Bautista is a black belt under John Crouch at MMA Lab, and seven of his seventeen professional wins have come by submission.

Here is the simple expected value equation I run on spots like this, assume a conservative true win probability for Bautista of 48 percent based on the stylistic collision and recent form. At plus 120 that implies an EV of 0.48 times 2.20 minus 0.52 times 1 equals plus 0.056, or roughly plus 5.6 percent edge. Even if you shave him down to 45 percent true probability you are still in positive territory at the current prices. The public loves Sandhagen’s highlight-reel kicks and the memory of that first-round armbar, so the line has not fully adjusted for the fact that Bautista has evolved into a high-pace grappler who chains wrestling into back takes and rear-naked chokes.

Recent form adds another layer, Bautista just submitted Vinicius Oliveira in the second round with a rear-naked choke after controlling the mat. Before that he out-pointed Patchy Mix and took a split decision from the legendary Jose Aldo. Sandhagen’s last three include a title-fight loss to Merab where he was taken down twenty times and a five-round decision loss to Umar. His one win in that stretch came against a fading Deiveson Figueiredo who suffered a knee injury. The pace differential is real. Bautista’s average fight time sits around ten minutes while Sandhagen’s is closer to fourteen minutes forty seconds. In three-round fights that favors the guy who can force early scrambles and drain the gas tank with constant level changes.

I care about this one because I have watched Bautista quietly climb the ranks without the same hype machine, he is the kind of fighter who shows up prepared, does the dirty work, and forces elite guys into ugly fights. Sandhagen is still dangerous, no question, and if he keeps this standing for fifteen minutes his volume and creativity could steal rounds. But the math on the wrestling mismatch, the rematch experience gap, and the plus-money pricing all point the same direction. Mario Bautista is not just a live underdog, he is the value play of the night for anyone who likes their edges clean and their math honest.

Quick thoughts on the rest of this stacked card, Max Holloway looks solid in the main event against a rusty Conor McGregor coming off a five-year layoff, the volume and durability edge is just too much to ignore even if Conor lands something early. Paddy Pimblett at plus money has real upset appeal against Benoit Saint Denis, his grappling could slow down the Frenchman in a fun scrap. King Green versus Terrance McKinney is pure chaos, lean McKinney early but Green late for live betting value. Robert Whittaker making his light heavyweight debut against Nikita Krylov is tricky, Whittaker’s experience gives him the nod but Krylov’s size makes him live at plus prices. The early prelims have some fireworks potential with guys like Zach Reese and Ryan Gandra, expect quick finishes there. Overall this card has that perfect mix of star power and underdog opportunities, lock in Bautista and enjoy the show, fight week in Vegas never disappoints.

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 09:06 am
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Sean Murphy

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 7:05 PM in 8h
MLB | Royals vs Orioles
Play on: Royals +140 at circa
Game Analysis

My selection is on Kansas City over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

We just missed with the Royals last night as they rallied a couple of times but couldn't come up with any clutch hits late to secure an 'upset' win. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them on Saturday, however. They'll send left-hander Noah Cameron to the hill. He's coming off a bounce-back performance against the Phillies on Monday. It hasn't been a banner season for Cameron after he finished top-four in A.L Rookie of the Year voting last year. With that being said, I still consider him a quality left-handed arm and will note that the O's rank 25th in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Kyle Bradish gets the start for Baltimore. He was terrific last time out but needed to throw a whopping 106 pitches. I'll also point to the fact that the O's dropped his second straight start. Current Royals hitters haven't seen a lot of Bradish but what they have seen, they've liked, going 8-for-24 (.333) with a .887 OPS. Take Kansas City (8*).

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 06:58 am
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Mike Lundin

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 7:10 PM in 8h
MLB | Cubs vs Reds
Play on: Cubs -1½ +130 at Bovada
Game Analysis

Cubs vs Reds MLB Free Pick 

The Angle(s): This looks like a good spot to back the Chicago Cubs after getting shut out in the series opener. Public perception often overadjusts to a zero-run performance, but sharp handicappers know that backing a disciplined lineup following a shutout loss yields excellent long-term value.

The Cincinnati Reds hand the ball to left-hander Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.68 ERA). While Lodolo has individual flashes of pitching well lately, the team results tell a highly alarming story. The Reds have dropped five of his last six starts.

The Cubs turn to right-hander Javier Assad (6-1, 4.15 ERA), who isn't just a solid arm, he consistently benefits from a high-functioning relationship with his offense. The Cubs' dugout routinely fills up the box score when he takes the bump, leading Chicago to an impressive seven wins across his last eight starts.

The moneyline is tempting, but the real value is on the runline at plus-money. 

The Bet: Cubs -1½ (3%). 

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 02:42 am
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Andrew Gold

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 11:05 AM in 12m
Tennis | Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova
Play on: Linda Noskova +110 at Bovada
Game Analysis

1% GOLD RUSH on Linda Noskova +110

Pick Released on Jul 10 at 08:51 am
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Cole Faxon

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 5:00 PM in 6h
Soccer | England vs Norway
Play on: England -104 at betonline
Game Analysis

FREE PLAY on England -104

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 10:49 am
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ProSportsPicks

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 5:00 PM in 6h
Soccer | England vs Norway
Play on: OVER 2½ -130
Game Analysis

PSP Data Driven 1* Over.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Over. The Over is 5-0 in Norway last 5 games. The Over is 4-2 in England last 6 games.

Pick Released on Jul 08 at 11:45 am
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Joe Duffy

Game Details
Jul 11 '26, 4:10 PM in 5h
MLB | Mariners vs Rays
Play on: Mariners +100 at circa
Game Analysis

The Mariners are a prime value play thanks to a combination of market signals, pitching, and one of the day's strongest regression indicators.

The biggest edge comes from the Luck Gap. Seattle enters at -4.29 while Tampa Bay sits at +6.17, creating a 10.46-game gap. That tells us the Mariners have underperformed their underlying performance while the Rays have benefited from positive variance. When the gap becomes this significant, we expect regression to narrow the difference over time, creating value on the less fortunate club.

The pitching matchup also favors Seattle. Logan Gilbert has been one of the American League's most consistent starters, posting a 3.19 ERA and 0.95 WHIP while dominating away from home with a 1.73 road ERA. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts and owns a 1.87 ERA over his last five outings, averaging more than six innings per start. He also shut out Tampa Bay over six innings with 10 strikeouts the last time he faced the Rays in St. Petersburg.

Tampa Bay counters with Griffin Jax, who has pitched well since joining the rotation, but he's still averaging only about five innings per start. That puts greater pressure on a Rays bullpen carrying a significantly higher ERA than Seattle's relief corps. The Mariners' bullpen has been one of baseball's strengths, entering with a 2.91 ERA, giving Seattle a meaningful advantage once the starters exit.

Seattle's season record may not jump off the page, but that's exactly why this is an attractive betting opportunity. The market often prices teams based on wins and losses, while the Luck Factor suggests the Mariners have been considerably better than their record indicates. Combining that regression angle with Gilbert's outstanding current form and the bullpen edge creates a strong investment opportunity.

With a 10.46-game Luck Gap, an ace-level starter in excellent form, and a superior bullpen behind him, the Marinersoffer value in a matchup where the underlying metrics paint a more favorable picture than the standings.

Pick Released on Jul 11 at 10:05 am
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