Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Stars -125

1* Free Pick on Cardinals -2½

Free Total Annihilator On Cincinnati vs Arizona over 54½ -110

1* Free Play on Indiana/Rutgers over 56 -110

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Tennessee Titans +11.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Tennessee Titans after a 0-3 start.  After opening with a 13-point loss to the Jets, the Titans had their chances to win in the final seconds in each of their last two games.  They lost by 4 as 7-point dogs to the Eagles and by 5 as 2.5-point dogs to the Giants.

While the Titans are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL, the Ravens are dealing with a ton of injuries that do not warrant them being this big of a favorite.  They lost their top two centers in Pocic and Gwynn to injury last week and are down to a rookie 3rd-stringer.  LB Trey Hendrickson is out, while WR Zay Flowers and OT Ronnie Stanley are questionable.

The Ravens are vulnerable up the middle offensively now.  That makes this a particularly bad matchup for them going up against the biggest strength of the Titans, which is the interior of their defensive line led by Jeffery Simmons.  Robert Saleh will take advantage of this weakness for the Ravens and send plenty of pressure up the middle.

This is also a letdown spot for the Ravens.  They have the long flight back from Brazil after escaping with a last-second win over the Cowboys last week.  We see them come up flat as big favorites at home multiple times every season.  They already did it once losing outright to the Saints as 8.5-point favorites in Week 2.  They may find a way to win this game, but I fully expect it to be closer than this line suggests.

The Titans have a very good offensive line and a solid running game when their backs in Pollard and Spears are healthy.  It's supposed to rain throughout the game, so running the football and stopping the run will be very important.  I think Tennessee matches up well in both departments with the Ravens.  The rain will suppress scoring, which will help keep the Titans in this game.

The Titans average 4.2 yards per rush and allow 3.6 yards per rush this season.  Baltimore rushes for 5.2 yards per carry while allowing 4.1 per carry.  But the Ravens have played a very easy schedule of opposing defenses in the Colts, Cowboys and Saints.  This Tennessee defense will bet the best unit Baltimore has faced this season.

NFL teams that are 0-3 entering Week 4 up against a team with at least one win are 47-25-1 ATS since 2005.  I would not play all these teams blindly, but the Titans are my favorite of the bunch in this situation.  It makes sense too because these 0-3 teams play with more desperation than their opponents.  They are also undervalued after three straight losses, and the Titans fit that bill.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

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3* on Bucs

Ricky's 1* play on BYU.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- BYU are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

- BYU are 3-1 ATS in the last 4 head to head meetings.

- BYU are are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 10/3:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. Take the Tennessee Titans plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens. Tennessee (0-3) remains winless this season after their 12-7 loss on the road in New York against the Giants as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Titans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three games in a row. And while first-year head coach Robert Saleh has a 23-35 ATS mark in his head coaching career mostly with the New York Jets, those Jets teams covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games played in October which suggests his ability to make adjustments after the first month of the season. Baltimore (2-1) comes off a 34-31 last second victory against Dallas on Sunday in that game played in Brazil as a 3-point favorite. The Ravens return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored. Take Tennessee plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

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Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Dolphins +10.5 

1* NFL - Cowboys/Texans FREE PICK on Texans -3

Free Play on Washington +8½ -108

1* Free Pick on Padres +180

1* Free Pick on Seahawks -7

The Chargers are 0-3 and averaging just 14.7 points a game.

Now they fly to Seattle to face the defending champion Seahawks, who are angry after losing a close one in Washington.

Start with the quarterbacks.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert is completing 59.1 percent of his passes with a 3:4 TD:INT ratio through three games.

His supporting cast is thin.

Tight ends Charlie Kolar and David Njoku are both out, and right tackle Trey Pipkins III is on IR.

That matters against a Seattle defense that has already given up the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.

Los Angeles has not been close to competitive.

They lost 26-14 to the Cardinals, 26-14 to the Raiders, then fell in Buffalo despite forcing 5 turnovers.

When your defense hands you 5 takeaways and you still lose, the offense is broken.

Seattle is a different story.

The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 a game and allowing 16.7.

Their only loss came on a pick-six in the final minutes at Washington.

Before that they went into Arizona and won 31-7.

Sam Darnold is back under center and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on the field in this one.

He takes a 27-405-6 line on 36 targets into Week 4 with three straight games over 120 receiving yards.

The Chargers have no answer for him.

Good team at home off a loss against a bad team that cannot score.

Seven points is not enough.

I like the Seahawks

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Jaguars/Bengals OVER 51.5

The Key: The Jaguars have been protecting double-digit 2H leads each of the first 3 games of the season so they haven't been pressing the issue offensively.  They are much more potent on offense than they have shown, and they will need to show it this week to match this high-octane Cincinnati offense score for score.  The Bengals were also protecting double-digit leads in their first 2 games against the Bucs and Texans.  They went score for score with the Steelers last week in a 30-27 loss.  I think we see a similar result here with the Jaguars as these are 2 of the best offenses in the NFL, and 2 defenses that are very vulnerable in the secondary.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 matchups between the Bengals and Jaguars and Burrow didn't even play in the last 2 matchups.  They still went for 65 and 58 combined points.  Take the OVER.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Texas State -8½ -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Seattle Seahawks will be motivated when they return home to bounce back from one of the most shocking losses of the season.  They lost 33-31 to Marcus Mariota and the Commanders last week in sloppy conditions.  When you look at the box score, the Seahawks had no business losing that game.  They outgained the Commanders by 179 yards but were -3 in turnovers, including a Pick 6 from Sam Darnold.  He'll be much sharper in his 2nd back back from injury.  The Seahawks are outgaining their opponents by 149 yards per game and 2.3 yards per play this season.  They haven't missed a beat since winning the Super Bowl.  Their defense is the best in the NFL giving up only 228.7 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  The 0-3 Chargers are getting outgained by 41 yards per game.  They even lost to the Bills by 8 last week despite being +4 in turnovers.  They are broken and banged up, and now they have a ton of travel in between coming back from Buffalo this week and now flying up to Seattle for consecutive road games.  They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and Justin Herbert just doesn't have time.  Ladd McConkey is banged up and questionable, and they don't have many weapons outside him.  They are down their top two TE's.  Three starters in the secondary in James, Molden and Jackson are all questionable, and they are without NT Tomlinson.  The Seahawks are going to own them at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football and it will lead to a win by more than a touchdown in this one.  Give me the Seahawks.

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This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our Sunday Free Play. Denver opened the season with a blowout loss at Kansas City but has won its last two games, both at home, against Jacksonville and Los Angeles by one possession which is something that has carried over from last season. In both of those victories, Denver was down double digits and that is not ideal to recover from as teams to win consecutive games trailing by 10 or more points in each are 7-13 ATS in their next game over the last 10 seasons. San Francisco has caught a break with the schedule as it opened with Los Angeles in Australia and caught the Rams on one day of travel and then the 49ers hosted Miami and Arizona so this will be their third straight home game. The level of competition goes up but the spot is good with the Broncos once again near the top of the luck rankings. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a home win. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1983. Play (272) San Francisco 49ers

Fargo is now 14-5-2 in the NFL to start the season following a Browns Win on Thursday! College Football is 20-15 YTD following another winning week with action day and night Saturday. NFL has FIVE Winners on Sunday.

Colts -3

Indy has the cleaner path to controlling this game. Washington is allowing more than 280 passing yards per game, and opposing QB's have consistently found room against a defense that has surrendered 11 TD's through three weeks. The Commanders are also allowing TD's on 75% of opposing red-zone trips. That gives Daniel Jones a favorable matchup, but Jonathan Taylor is where I expect Indy to establish control. Washington is coming off an emotional win behind Marcus Mariota, while the Colts just handled a physical Houston defense. At only a FG, I'll lay it. Back Indy. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the COLTS -3. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

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Delta Center on a Saturday night is a building that wants a champion, and the board hung the vacant belt on the woman who has not lost in the UFC. Wang Cong is the plus-money side. Not because Natalia Silva is a mirage. Because minus-205 in a five-round debut for both of them is a tax, and the over 4.5 is already −260.

Silva is 20–5–1 and 8–0 in the UFC. Fourteen straight wins. Six of those eight UFC wins went to the judges. Two knockouts. She beat Rose Namajunas by unanimous decision in January, 51 strikes to 26, one takedown apiece, zero knockdowns. She beat Alexa Grasso 65–45. She beat Jessica Andrade 117–50. The sheet says volume and a clean card, not a finisher. Significant strikes land at 4.81 a minute. Accuracy is 45 percent. She absorbs 2.36. Strike defense is 66 percent. Takedown defense is 90 percent, which is why people lay the number. Takedown accuracy is 30 percent. Submission average is zero. She is 5-foot-4 with a 65-inch reach, southpaw, 29 years old. The public will smash the streak because the streak is real and the main event is on the poster.

Wang is 10–1–0 and 5–1 in the UFC. The only loss was a rear-naked choke to Gabriella Fernandes in November 2024. Since then it is four unanimous decisions: Bruna Brasil, Ariane da Silva, Eduarda Moura, Tracy Cortez. Four trips to the scorecards. No drama, no early exit. She lands 6.84 significant strikes a minute against Silva’s 4.81. Accuracy sits around 58 to 60 percent. She absorbs 2.82. Strike defense is 60 percent. Takedown defense is 86 percent. She is 34, southpaw, 5-foot-6 or 5-foot-7 depending on the card, 65.5-inch reach. The nickname is the Joker. The method is the decision. Career wins are 60 percent on the cards, two knockouts, two submissions. Average fight time is 11:39. That is not a one-round dart. That is a woman who has been paid to hear the horn.

The distance math is the work.

Two extra significant strikes a minute, over 25 minutes, is about 50 strikes if the fight actually goes the distance the board already priced. Silva’s edge is the 90 percent takedown defense and the eight-fight unbeaten run. Wang’s edge is the output and a card that already says she wins ugly and late. You are not fading Silva to get finished in two. You are fading her to take a vacant belt at minus-205 against a counter-striker who has won four in a row on the cards. A split for Wang cashes. A unanimous for Wang cashes. 48–47 the other way is the hold.

The over 4.5 at −260 is the market telling you the same thing. Silva’s UFC finish rate is 25 percent. Wang’s last four did not end early. Laying −260 to bet the fight starts the fifth is how people donate the main event. The moneyline is the ticket.

Bet Wang Cong on the moneyline as a plus-money underdog in a five-round women’s flyweight title fight. Wang’s UFC record as an underdog: 3–0 (100 percent). Last four fights: unanimous decision, unanimous decision, unanimous decision, unanimous decision. (+3.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%)

Bet the dog in a vacant-title main event when the favorite’s UFC wins are at least 75 percent decisions. Silva is 6–0 by decision in eight UFC wins, 75 percent. The over 4.5 is −260. The price on the dog is +170. (+1.7 unit$, ROI=22.4%)

Bet against a flyweight favorite of −200 to −210 when the underdog lands at least 1.5 more significant strikes per minute. The gap is 2.03. Silva absorbs 2.36. Wang lands 6.84. That is the output the chalk has not been priced to absorb for 25 minutes. (+1.7 unit$, ROI=18.2%)

Shop plus 170. If she is plus 155, the juice already walked and you are paying for the poster. Confirm both make weight. A flyweight miss turns a title fight into a different sport. The house does not care that Silva has not lost since she got here.

My selection is on Arizona over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While the Giants enter this game with the better overall record, I don't think there's any question it's the Cardinals that appear to have more upside through three weeks of the season. I really liked the fight Arizona showed in last week's loss but ATS cover on the road against the 49ers. Bettors wanted no part of the Cards after their blowout loss at home against Seattle in Week 2. Keep in mind, the Seahawks had extra time to prepare for that matchup after opening the season on a Wednesday. That's not to mention the fact that the Cards were in a clear letdown after pulling off a road upset of the Chargers in Week 1. The situation on offense is bad enough for the Giants that they elected to sign Vikings cast-off QB J.J. McCarthy. Last week's win over Tennessee had everything to do with the ineptness of the Titans and very little to do with New York's own crisp play. That was an ugly game all around that to put bluntly, someone had to win. While the Giants might have had a chance to compete this year with a healthy Jaxson Dart at quarterback, I fully expect them to quickly fall well back of the pack with Jameis Winston running what already looks like a broken offense (the fact that they're bent on featuring RB Cam Skattebo as the focal point is the biggest red flag). Take Arizona (8*).

1% GOLD RUSH on Jaguars/Bengals: over 51½

Free Play – Take #279 Detroit -3.5 over Carolina (8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 4)

Detroit is #3 in scoring; that’s good. The Lions are last in points allowed in the NFL, that’s not good. Carolina is #6 and #26, respectively in those two categories. So we should see plenty of points. Yet, the Lions have had injury concerns all year in the secondary and on the offensive line, but now that's true about the Panthers as well, with their top two corners and best O-lineman out. Detroit probably can’t wait to get to Charlotte to attack the Cats secondary. At the same time, QB Bryce Young has to be salivating watching all the soft coverage and underneath throws available against Detroit. Carolina is 10-0 ATS off a loss, DEEtroit is 8-1 ATS against teams who give up 24 or more points a game and 7-1 ATS as outdoor faves. I’ll take the Lions experience. 

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Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Washington are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. Washington are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 road games.

The Blues are on the second game of a back-to-back after picking up a win over Dallas last night. They picked up the upset last night, but Colorado is a different animal. St.Louis beat Dallas 4-0, while Colorado won their first game 8-4. I don't like the Blues playing last night and the Avs having a rest advantage.

Play on Colorado minus 1.5 goals. This is a FREE play.

I am looking here at the battle of Texas with the Dallas Cowboys at the Houston Texans. I think the game means a ton to both teams but the Texans sitting at 0-3 at home this is a must have for this franchise going against the hated Dallas Cowboys. Texans defense is light years better than the Cowboys and I think Houston has a big advantage at head coach as well. Texans top wide receiver should be coming back for this one Nico Collins look for him to have a huge game. 

Play on the Houston Texans lay the points rotation #260

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