Free Sports Picks of the Day

1* Bet on Mercury +8½

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Atlanta Braves -125

The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated for a victory tonight to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the San Diego Padres by a single run each.  They should take Game 3 tonight with their big advantage on the mound.

Martin Perez is 6-3 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 11 starts and four relief appearances for the Braves this season.  He has allowed just 6 homers and 21 earned runs in 68 innings.  Perez is backed by the best bullpen in baseball with the Braves having a 2.86 ERA on the season.

JP Sears will be making his first start of the season for the Padres due to injuries in their rotation.  Sears has a 7.92 ERA in 14 starts at Triple-A El Paso while allowing 56 earned runs and 10 homers in 63 2/3 innings.  

The Padres have a solid bullpen as well, but they likely won't have the services of the best reliever in baseball in Mason Miller.  He pitched two innings last night and has pitched three innings the past two days in closing out the first two games of this series.  Bet the Braves Wednesday.

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Free Play on Fever -8 -105

Free Total Annihilator On Dodgers vs Twins over 7½ -120

The Royals don't have a very good offense ranking 19th in runs and 24th in homers. That offense is even much weaker without injured Bobby Witt and Maikel Garcia.

Kansas City also is 15-24 on the road.

Noah Cameron has been solid on the mound for the Royals, but Kansas City's leaky bullpen has the fifth highest ERA at 4.88.

Tampa Bay is starting Griffin Jax, who has a solid 3.49 ERA. The top Rays' bullpen arms are rested. The Royals have pulled major upsets in the first two games of this series. I don't see it happening a third straight time. 

3* on Sky

Free Play – Take #926 Pittsburgh -111 over Seattle (6:40 p.m. ET, Wednesday, June 24)

Seattle right-hander Bryan Woo will try to solve his road woes when he takes the mound for the Mariners against Pittsburgh. Woo (6-5, 3.94 ERA) will oppose Pirates right-hander Braxton Ashcraft (6-3, 3.18 ERA) as he tries to lead the Mariners to the series win. Seattle won the opener of the three-game set 3-2 on Tuesday night. Woo has been stellar in Seattle, going 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA in seven starts. But in eight road starts, he is 1-5 with a 5.93 ERA. I think the situation favors the Bucs tonight as AL Road teams with an OBP of .320 or lower, against an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or lower, batting .175 or worse over their last three games are an abysmal 7-35.

>MLB NL Game of the Day! Sizzling 40-23 run!

DOUG UPSTONE has One Top Play in baseball left for Wednesday as he continues to percolate at 54-33 and 126-83 long term on all picks. Doug is 32-20, 41-24, 64-42 runs in baseball, and at 105-60 on ML picks long-term run! Upstone is a highly decorated betting expert with 30 monitored titles in various sports and 114 Top 10 finishes in his stellar 23-year career. Get Doug’s Best Bets, Top Plays, Super Systems and terrific trends. 

1* Free Play on Fever -8 -105

1* Free Pick on Fever -8

The Fever and Mercury ran this back on Monday and Indiana won 86-77, a 9-point margin.

Now they play again, same building, with Phoenix in worse shape than they were two nights ago.

Phoenix is missing three rotation players.

Monique Akoa Makani (hamstring), Jovana Nogic (personal), and Sami Whitcomb (long-term) are all out.

Starting forward Natasha Mack is a game-time decision with a foot injury and listed at 50% to play.

That is a top-six rotation player potentially being subtracted from an already thin roster.

The efficiency gap over the last 10 games is real.

Indiana sits at 109.3 offensive rating and 0.54 eFG%.

Phoenix is at 100.4 offensive rating and 0.48 eFG%.

Indiana also plays at a 99.26 pace versus Phoenix at 93.69, and the Fever want this game in transition where the depleted Mercury guard rotation gets exposed.

The opposition case centers on Indiana's 21% turnover rate and the chance that Monday's chippy game (five technicals, a Hines-Allen ejection) creates foul trouble for Clark and Boston.

Fair concern.

But Indiana is 6-4 in the last 10 and Phoenix is 3-7 with a -7.7 net rating.

The talent gap is wide enough that even a sloppy Fever game still gets to 8.

Caitlin Clark (21.3 ppg) and Kelsey Mitchell (20.9 ppg) outscore anything Phoenix can put on the floor without Akoa Makani and Nogic.

The market priced this off Monday's 9-point result and didn't fully bake in the compounding injury news.

I like the Fever

1* MLB - Mariners/Pirates FREE PICK on Pirates -111

1* FREE INFO PLAY Edmonton Elks vs Winnipeg under 56½ -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Braves/Padres OVER 8

Both the Braves and the Padres blew through their bullpens last night in a 7-6 win by the Padres in extra innings that saw 13 combined runs.  With JP Sears going for the Padres tonight the Braves should have an offensive explosion.  Sears has a 7.92 ERA in 14 starts in the minor this season.  Martin Perez gave up 4 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 2/3 innings in his only previous road start against the Padres.  Give me the OVER.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Braves -121

Wednesday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Dodgers/Twins UNDER 8

This one has that classic tournament feel where one side is playing with house money and the other is fighting for survival, and the numbers keep leaning pretty clearly one direction. Mexico has been grinding through their group stage like a side that knows exactly what it takes to get the job done at home. They’ve picked up maximum points from their first two matches while keeping things airtight at the back, no goals conceded across 180 minutes, and now they get to play in front of their own crowd with qualification already secured. That combination tends to bring out a professional, controlled performance rather than anything reckless.

Czech Republic, on the other hand, finds itself in that classic must-win spot where the math is unforgiving. They’ve only managed a single point so far (a draw and a narrow loss) and need a victory here plus favorable results elsewhere just to stay alive. That kind of pressure often forces teams to push numbers forward earlier than they’d like, and the recent trends show sides in similar situations have been leaving gaps that better-organized opponents have punished. When you line up Mexico’s defensive record in this tournament, multiple clean sheets across their opening fixtures, against Czech Republic’s struggles to create consistent high-quality chances (averaging fewer than 9 shots per game and struggling to break 45% possession in recent competitive outings), the math starts looking pretty one-sided in favor of the hosts.

Home advantage in these big tournament matches at altitude and in front of a fired-up crowd has a way of tilting the scales even further. Mexico has a strong recent history of handling business on their own soil in World Cup settings, winning six of their last eight home games in the competition while averaging over 55% possession and generating 13-15 shots per match. Czech Republic has shown fight in patches, but their recent results have featured more frustration than clinical finishing, especially when they’ve had to chase games (conceding at a rate closer to 1.8 goals per match while posting under 40% possession on average in those scenarios over the past couple of years). Mexico, by contrast, has looked comfortable controlling tempo and capitalizing on transitions, averaging better than 1.5 goals per game while limiting opponents to under a goal in high-stakes home fixtures.

The head-to-head history is limited, but what’s there doesn’t contradict the broader picture. Mexico has tended to come out on top or at least hold their own when the stakes are high, and the current form lines up with that. Czech Republic has scored in most of their recent outings, but against organized defenses like Mexico’s they’ve managed just one goal combined in their last two competitive matches while struggling to get shots on target consistently. Throw in the altitude factor that often saps visiting legs late in games, and you get a matchup formula that keeps favoring the side that can sit back, absorb, and hit on the counter or set pieces.

I’ve been tracking these kinds of group-stage finales for years, and this setup, qualified host with a stingy back line versus a desperate visitor who needs to open up, has produced more home wins than not (roughly 65-70% across similar World Cup scenarios in recent cycles). The value feels clearest on Mexico getting the result. It’s not about expecting a goal fest; it’s about expecting the more disciplined, higher-quality side to manage the game and come away with the three points. If you’re looking for spots where the situation, the recent trends, and the home numbers all line up cleanly, this one stands out.

I’ve watched enough of these to know when the edges stack up, and this feels like one of those nights where Mexico handles business without too much drama. The crowd will be loud, the altitude will play its part, and El Tri should send a message heading into the knockouts.

Brewers vs Reds MLB Free Pick

After dropping back-to-back close contests (1-2 on Monday, 0-2 on Tuesday), the public is lining up to back the red-hot Brewers to complete the road sweep. However, the sharp money knows how difficult it is to sweep a divisional foe on their own turf, and the situational value lies heavily with the home underdog to bounce back.

The Reds hand the ball to high-upside rookie right-hander Rhett Lowder (3-4, 4.82 ERA). While Lowder’s standard-line metrics show some freshman instability, his underlying command remains lethal. Because the Brewers’ lineup hasn't faced Lowder extensively, the initial familiarity edge tilts heavily toward the young right-hander.

The Brewers counter with left-hander Shane Drohan (3-2, 3.40 ERA). Drohan has put up tidy surface numbers, but a deeper look reveals he is ripe for regression. Drohan averages a modest 4 2/3 innings per start, heavily taxing a Brewers bullpen that has logged heavy high-leverage innings over their current three-game winning streak.

While Milwaukee’s offense has been highly efficient this season, their power has completely dried up, as they have hit the third-fewest home runs in all of baseball (68). Conversely, the Reds possess the exact blueprint needed to exploit Drohan as Cincinnati ranks near the top tier of the league with 96 home runs. 

The Bet: Reds +1½ (3%). 

1% GOLD RUSH on Sky -2½

PSP Data Driven 1* Nationals +1.5

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. The Nationals are 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Nationals are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

For my best free pick on the board here for Wednesday in the WNBA I am looking at the Washington Mystics hosting the Minnesota Lynx. Lynx have been the best ATS team in the WNBA clocking in at 13-4 and with the success comes inflated and over bet lines. Washington is a much improved team over last season IMO. They have won 3 in a row including wins over the Liberty and this Lynx team in Minnesota. Bettors thinking we will see revenge I am seeing disrespect here r giving the Mystics so many points here at home.

Play on the Washington Mystics plus the points rotation #646

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