Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Jiri Lehecka -130

1* Free Pick on Ravens +3

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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: 49ers/Seahawks UNDER 46.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The 49ers and Seahawks squared off three times last season after meeting in the playoffs, too.  Looking at the history of this series it has been a dead nuts UNDER when these division rivals get together.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 37, 30, 16 and 47 combined points.  They combined for just 566 total yards in that 37-point meeting, 614 yards in that 30-point meeting, 534 yards in that 16-point meeting and 517 yards in that 47-point meeting.  It took a miracle to get 47 combined points in that playoff meeting last year with the Seahawks winning 41-6 while benefitting from a 95-yard kickoff return TD to open the game.  The 49ers gifted them some easy points with three turnovers as well.

This season, these have been two of the best defenses in the NFL, so it should be more of the same especially with the 49ers much healthier on defense than they were in the playoffs last season.  San Francisco ranks 3rd in scoring defense at 16.0 points per game, 7th in total defense at 308.8 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play allowed.  Having Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw back healthy and leading the defense this season has made all the difference.

Seattle has been even better and is actually nearly at full strength on defense.  The Seahawks rank 5th in scoring defense at 18.2 points per game, 1st in total defense at 246.8 yards per game and 1st at 4.2 yards per play allowed.  They have all hands on deck defensively with the exception of one starting CB position, but they have proven they have plenty of depth in the secondary to make up for it.

The 49ers rank well offensively this season, but the injuries continue to pile up for them, and I think they have benefited from a soft schedule of opposing defenses.  Mike Evans is playing hurt, and they are down five receivers plus FB Kyle Juszczyk, who is one of the most underrated players in the league for what he does for this Kyle Shanahan offense.  The Seahawks really miss Kenneth Walker as their running game has been a major disappointment this season.  It doesn't help that they remain without Zach Charbonnet, first-round pick Price, and having George Holani questionable heading into this one.

There will be double-digit winds in Seattle to affect the passing and kicking games as well to aid us in cashing this UNDER 46.5 ticket.  I expect another defensive grinder between these NFC West rivals this afternoon.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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3* on over

FREE PLAY — UNDER 42.5 DENVER/LA CHARGERS — 4:05 ET

Both offenses face significant obstacles to consistent scoring, creating a compelling case for the UNDER in this AFC West matchup.

Denver has struggled to generate explosive passing plays, particularly away from home. The Broncos' passing attack has repeatedly relied on short throws that produce limited yardage after the catch.

That approach creates problems when an offense must sustain long drives without the benefit of explosive gains.

Even when Denver moves the chains, the lack of downfield production increases the number of successful plays required to reach scoring position. More plays create additional opportunities for sacks, penalties, incompletions and stalled possessions.

The Chargers face a different but equally significant problem.

Los Angeles has been dealing with injuries to both starting offensive tackles. Those absences can materially affect pass protection, especially against a Denver defense capable of generating pressure from multiple alignments.

When offensive tackles are unavailable, teams often compensate by keeping tight ends or running backs in protection. That reduces the number of eligible receivers available downfield and can force quarterbacks into quicker, shorter passing concepts.

The consequences extend beyond sacks. Pressure can disrupt timing, eliminate deep passing opportunities and make third-down conversions considerably more difficult.

Denver's defensive front has the personnel to exploit those weaknesses, while the Broncos' own offensive limitations make it difficult to project consistent scoring from the other side.

A respected sharp bettor independently supports the UNDER at 42.5.

The matchup points toward reduced passing efficiency, fewer explosive gains and more possessions ending without touchdowns. Those factors provide a stronger foundation for the UNDER than simply relying on either team's recent scoring averages.

Play to: UNDER 42.5.

(#902) Milwaukee Brewers | ML | . 

Tarik Skubal (12-7, 2.73 ERA) vs. Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA) . 

Anything around a 2.00 ERA is ridiculous to maintain during a season. Anything under is absurd. Jacob Misiorowski has been clearly the #1 pitcher in baseball across both leagues and he's making his first career start in the NLCS tonight. Even though he wasn't un-hittable in his NLDS outing vs. San Diego, the Miz now has a start in October under his belt. He should be ready for this one. 

On the other hand, the Dodgers will turn to Tarik Skubal. I am still a huge fan of Skubal as I believe that he's still one of the best in the game. However, this is a scary road matchup in Game One of the LCS. Both these teams are brilliant. But, I expect home field to carry the show in the opening game here on Sunday. 

Burns' Prediction: 3-1 Brewers.

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Chargers +3.5 

1* Free Pick on 49ers/Seahawks: over 45½

These two offenses are combining for almost 57 points a game and the total sits at 45.5.

That gap is the whole bet.

The 49ers are 4-0 and scoring 30.5 a game.

Brock Purdy leads the league with 11 touchdown passes and hasn't taken a sack through four games.

When the quarterback is clean and protected, points follow.

The weapons are rolling too.

George Kittle has at least 70 receiving yards in three straight games.

Christian McCaffrey has 4 rushing touchdowns and 340 total yards.

Mike Evans is active after clearing the injury report.

Seattle is scoring 26.25 a game and has hit 30 or more in three of four, including 30 on the Chargers last week.

Sam Darnold's offense isn't the run-heavy grinder people remember.

Now the real driver: San Francisco's defense is stripped down.

Nick Bosa is out.

DT James Thompson Jr. misses a third straight game.

Safety Marques Sigle is out.

Slot corner Upton Stout is questionable with an AC joint sprain and unlikely to go after one limited practice.

That's the pass rush and the secondary both compromised on the road.

Recent results back the number too.

The 49ers' game with the Cardinals two weeks ago landed on 66.

Seattle's trip to Washington produced 64.

Both offenses keep finding themselves in games that clear this total with room.

Two healthy, efficient offenses.

One banged-up defense.

A total priced below what both teams have been producing all season.

I like the Over

Free Play on 49ers +3 +100

OVER 46½

San Francisco is averaging 31 points per game, and Brock Purdy has been carving up defenses with 11 TD's and just one interception. Seattle's defense is excellent, but the Niners haven't allowed a sack all season, and Shanahan has enough offensive creativity to keep those chains moving. The Seahawks bring plenty of scoring ability themselves, averaging 26 points, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba giving Sam Darnold a legitimate big-play weapon. More importantly, Seattle's ground game gets a favorable matchup against a San Francisco defense struggling to stop efficient rushing attacks, and Nick Bosa is OUT. That's a significant loss against Emanuel Wilson and Seattle's improving offensive line. Both defenses deserve respect, but these offenses have multiple ways to put points on the board. At 46½, I'm backing the firepower. Take the OVER. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the **OVER 46½.** The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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Marc David's NFL Free Pick

We really like road underdog in this matchup. The Ravens (3-1) will be without Lamar Jackson, and the market has overreacted. Tyler Huntley is a functional backup with 16 career starts, and Derrick Henry, a top-three back in football, doesn’t need an elite quarterback to move the chains. The Ravens are already 2-0 on the road this season, putting up 41 on the Colts and 34 on the Cowboys.

The Falcons (2-2) have scored 35 and 45 in back-to-back road wins, with Brian Robinson running for 145 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints. But they’re on a short week after playing Monday night, and their only home game this season was a 34-3 loss to the Panthers.

The Ravens are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as a road underdog, and this is a well-coached team with a run game that travels. We’ll take the points with the Ravens.

This is FREE PLAY on the RAVENS ATS.

1% GOLD RUSH on Rams -3½