Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Guardians -175

1* Free Pick on Diamondbacks +160

1* Bet on Dream/Aces: under 178½

Ricky's 1* play on KC.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Royals are 3-1 in their last 4 games.

- oakland athletics are 2-5 in their last 7 games.

- The Royals are 4-2 in the last 6 head to head meetings.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

3* on under

Free Play on Sky +4½ -115

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Tuesdays free winner: New York Yankees.

Game 959.

3:35 PM PST/6:35 PM EST.

New York has certainly dominated Baltimore, taking eight of the last 10 matchups with their American League East rival, just since last September. The Yankees sit in second place in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball at 69-55, 6.0-games back, and +8.5-games ahead in a Wildcard spot. The Orioles sit in fourth place in the division, at 61-64, 14.5-games back, and are right on the line for that WC spot. Uncharacteristic for MLB teams, the Yankees are better on the road than they are at home, sporting a 38-28 away record. Statistically, both offenses score about the same. But power and running certainly belong to the visiting team here as the Yankees rank second in baseball and home runs and seventh in stolen basis. Throw into the mix the disparity on the mound, and you can see why I like New York here. The Yankees pitching staff tops the Majors with a 3.26 ERA, while the Baltimore staff ranks 19th, with a team ERA of 4.24. Speaking of pitching, you can expect to see Rodon and Baz starting here today. The Yankees LH is coming off the injury list for his first big league appearance since the end of June, having recovered from an elbow situation. This season, he owns respectable numbers at 4-2 with a 3.30 ERA. The Orioles RH is 4-12 this season with a 4.00 ERA. Over his last 10 starts he has gone winless at 0-6 despite a respectable ERA during that span of 3.92. In seven starts against New York over his career, he is also winless at 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA. The Yankees starter has done well in his lifetime against today’s opponent, going up against them nine times, which includes eight stars, with a record of 2-3 with a 4.53 ERA. You never know what’s going to happen when a pitcher comes off the injured list. However, the way the Yankees have dominated the Orioles, and the fact they still have the best pitching staff in baseball behind their starter, compels me side with them. Take New York. Thank you.

1* Free Play on Aces -3 -110

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Braves/Twins OVER 8.5

The Twins have really profiled as an OVER team all season going 70-54-2 OVER in all games.  They are scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  Their lineup is as healthy as it has been all season, and the same can be said for the Braves, who are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.

These teams combined to strand 19 base runners in Game 1 of a 4-2 victory by the Twins, who scored 4 runs in the 1st and nothing thereafter.  Look for both teams to capitalize on more of their scoring opportunities tonight against these two suspect starting pitchers.

Tyler Mahle is still in search of his first road victory this season as he has huge home/road splits.  Mahle is 0-6 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 10 road starts, allowing 39 earned runs in 49 2/3 innings.  He had the luxury of making half his starts at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park in San Francisco before being traded to the Braves.  Mahle is 2-1 with a 5.17 ERA in seven career starts against the Twins, and the OVER is 6-1 in those seven starts.

Zebby Matthews is 6-8 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 16 starts for the Twins, allowing 54 earned runs and 18 homers in 91 innings.  Matthews has really struggled of late, posting a 7.50 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 20 earned runs in 24 innings.  He is backed by a poor Minnesota bullpen with a 4.73 ERA this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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1* Free Pick on Aces -3

Las Vegas is the sharper offensive team in this matchup, and the numbers back it up.

The Aces are shooting 48% from the field, 36% from three, with a 0.54 eFG% over their last 10.

Atlanta sits at 0.50 eFG% and just 31% from deep.

That's a real gap on a neutral floor, and this floor isn't neutral.

A'ja Wilson is averaging 26.1 PPG in 32.2 minutes, and Atlanta will try to handle her without Brionna Jones, who's out for a chunk of the stretch run.

Jones was the frontcourt insurance behind Angel Reese and Naz Hillmon.

Now those minutes shift to Madina Okot against the best post scorer in the league.

The opposition case is real.

Atlanta has a +6.3 net rating over their last 10 to Vegas's -0.3, and the Dream play at a 99.66 pace that can put pressure on a leaky defense.

That's why the number is only 3 and not 5 or 6.

But net rating over 10 games doesn't fix the specific problem of guarding Wilson with your backup center out.

Efficiency matchups travel; pace advantages tend to flatten when the other team shoots 54% eFG.

Aces also have the rest edge, 3 days to Atlanta's 2, and take better care of the ball at 0.15 TOV% vs 0.17.

Vegas at home, laying a field goal, with the interior mismatch and the shooting edge, is the right side of this number.

I like the Aces

1* MLB - White Sox/Cubs FREE PICK on Cubs -1.5 (+130) 

Dave's Tuesday Free Play:

1* on Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+120)

The Key: Tuesday starts a stretch of games the Cleveland Guardians have circled as their chance to make a run at the division.  They play the Giants, Rockies, Angels and Royals in their next 4 series with a chance to make some serious headway on the Chicago White Sox.  It starts tonight with a big edge on the rubber over the Giants.  Foster Griffin is 13-4 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 24 starts this year.  Griffin held the Giants to one ER in 6 innings in his only start against them this year.  Carson Whisenhunt is 3-3 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 6 starts for the Giants this year.  He is 1-2 with a 9.26 ERA and 2.31 WHIP in 3 road starts.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line at plus money.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Cardinals -116

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Marlins/Phillies OVER 8

The Phillies are 9-2-1 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 12 of those 13 games.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 16 of their last 18 games overall and are going through their best offensive stretch of the season.  The Miami Marlins are also hot at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in six of their last nine games overall.  The Marlins will make this a bullpen game starting with Cade Gibson, who has a 5.61 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 33 2/3 innings this season.  Gibson has given up 10 earned runs in 4 innings against the Phillies this season, and he has a 8.25 ERA in 10 career relief appearances against them.   Zack Wheeler has given up 13 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings in his last four starts for a 7.63 ERA.  Wheeler gave up 5 earned runs in 3 innings of a 8-7 loss to the Marlins on July 27th in his last start against them.  Give me the OVER.

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1* Free Sharp Play on A's +125

TUESDAY POWER CARD has WNBA, MLB and TENNIS Headlining

The Comp play for Tuesday is in The Champions League Playoff leg 1 Match headlines in Soccer today at 3 eastern and we are backing the Under 2.5 goals in the Olympique Lyonnais at Fenerbahce match. This match should be a very low scoring and tactical match as Both Mangers will emphasize defense here so there may not be a plethora of scoring chances. Lyon has 4 wins and a draw from 5 previous meetings but they are on the road here against the Fenerbahce squad that has never made it to the League Phase. The Turkish team may have been looking ahead to this one as they are off a tough League loss last out. Lyon erased a 2-1 aggregate in their last series with a commanding 3-0 win over Sparta Prague to get here. These two played a goal less draw ion the 2024-25 Europa League and this one has a similar feel and neither team will want to get down here so look for a lower scoring  match that stays under. GL Rob V-

1* Free Pick on Namo Fazil -160

My free play for Tuesday will be on the Chicago Sox/Cubs OVER the total in their second game of the Crosstown Classic on Tuesday night at Wrigley Field.

First of all, the pitching matchup sets up both offenses for success. Chicago sends Bryan Hudson to the mound. He’s got a record of 3-4 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The Cubs will counter with Kevin Gausman, who is 6-11 with a 4.53 ERA. Gausman has especially been hurting lately, allowing six runs and seven hits in just 4 2/3 innings his last outing against Washington.

Offensively, both sides are also coming into this game hot. The first game of this Crosstown rivalry went 7-5 in favor of the Cubs on Monday, with Chicago compiling 14 hits in that contest. Pete Crow-Armstrong hit two homers while Seiya Suzuki added another. Over in the loss, the White Sox have some power as well with a three-run homer from Randal Grichuk and a two-run blast from Andrew Benintendi. The White Sox also came into this series on a hot streak as well, sweeping Detroit and hitting 12 homers while batting .285 over their last week of play.

With Gausman being shaky as of late, both offenses capable of producing power and both bullpens likely having to cover a lot of innings, I like another bats-flying-out rivalry game.

Jim's Free Play: 979. White Sox / Chicago Cubs OVER

Tuesday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Royals -140 

Looking at the Week 0 board this year, one number keeps staring me right in the face. TCU laying a touchdown against North Carolina over in Dublin feels like the cleanest play on the early slate.

I have been on this one for a while now. TCU has the more settled roster, especially in the trenches, and that continuity matters more than most people want to admit in Week 0. North Carolina is still sorting through a heavy overhaul in Belichick’s second season, with a new offensive coordinator trying to install a system on the fly and a pile of new bodies who have not taken meaningful snaps together yet. In college football, that gap tends to show up early, especially when both teams have to fly across the ocean for a noon kick.

Neutral-site openers have always been kind to the more physical, more experienced side. Over the last fifteen years, favorites laying between six and eight points in true neutral-site season openers have covered right around 58 percent of the time. At standard juice you only need to hit 52.4 percent to break even, so that edge is real. When you tighten the filter to games that involved long-haul or overseas travel, the favorite’s cover rate climbs closer to 61 percent and the under hits nearly 60 percent of the time. The average total in those spots has finished almost four points under the number. Jet lag is no joke, and neither is limited practice time before a transatlantic flight.

TCU has been the more consistent outfit under Sonny Dykes. His teams usually play with a clear physical identity and they do not mind grinding it out early in the season. North Carolina, meanwhile, has spent the last couple of years looking like a roster still trying to figure out who belongs where. Historical trends for ACC teams opening against Big 12 competition on neutral fields lean toward the side with better line continuity, and TCU checks that box. Favorites in this exact range that also held a clear edge up front have covered better than 60 percent since the mid-2010s. That is the kind of number that keeps the lights on if you stay disciplined.

I will take the under as a secondary piece if the total sits near 48. Early-season scoring is often suppressed when teams are still installing, traveling, and playing a little tight. Both sides prefer a physical brand of football, and that style rarely produces fireworks in the first half of a Week 0 game on foreign soil.

Hawai’i getting points at Stanford and Memphis as a small dog against UNLV are fine secondary looks if you like chasing value on the dog side. I generally leave the massive numbers alone unless the total is screaming. This TCU spot is different. It is the kind of early-season situation where the sharper side of the board usually cashes, and the travel factor only adds another layer of protection.

I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again, but this one sits right with me. Continuity, trenches, travel, and the historical numbers all point the same direction. If the line drifts a half-point either way I am still on it. Good luck if you decide to ride along.

Note: I bet this selection while was able to get -7. But it s still good at this number.

Please unless your a weekend warrior do not buy off the hook.

BUYING OFF THE HOOK 

Buying off the hook is one of those moves that feels smart in the moment and slowly bleeds you over time. I have watched plenty of sharp money and square money both fall into the same trap, and the long-term numbers do not lie. You are paying extra juice to move the line half a point or a full point so a common final margin turns into a push or a win instead of a loss. Classic example is laying the three and a half instead of the three, or taking the plus three and a half instead of the plus three. The hook disappears, your ticket looks safer, and the price quietly climbs from minus one-ten to minus one-twenty or worse.

That extra juice is the real problem. Standard minus one-ten needs you to cash about fifty-two point four percent just to break even. Jump to minus one-twenty and you need roughly fifty-four and a half percent. At minus one-thirty you are staring at fifty-six and a half percent. Those two to four extra points of required win rate add up fast across a season. The probability of a game landing exactly on the number you bought off is almost never high enough to cover the cost over hundreds of plays.

Football is where the conversation gets loudest because the key numbers actually matter. Three and seven have historically been the biggest hooks in both the NFL and college game. League-wide data over the last decade shows finals of three happening in the high teens percentage range and sevens in the low double digits. Buying off those numbers is the only spot where the math gets closer to break-even. Even then you are usually still overpaying. Outside of those true keys the half-points become pure juice leaks. Teams that routinely buy from three and a half to three or from seven and a half to seven have shown thin or negative edges once you factor in the price.

Basketball is a different animal. NBA and college totals and spreads move around half-points constantly, but the distribution of final margins is flatter. Landing exactly on a three or a four happens less often than football’s big keys, so the value of buying the half-point is even thinner. Same story in baseball with the run line. Buying from one and a half to one or two and a half to two costs you juice that the frequency of those exact margins rarely repays. Soccer worldwide, whether Premier League, La Liga, Serie A or the big South American leagues, runs mostly on Asian handicaps where the half-goal and quarter-goal moves are already priced aggressively. Buying further off the number there is usually just giving the book more of your money for protection you do not need.

I have seen the same pattern in hockey, tennis, and the rest of the major venues. The public loves the feeling of being off the hook. The long-term winners almost never make it a habit. They would rather shop for the best available number, take the standard juice, and live with the occasional hook loss. The ones who grind out profits treat buying points like a last resort, not a regular tool. Only when the price is unusually soft on a true key number does the play even enter the conversation, and those spots are rare.

The bottom line is simple. Occasional, selective buys off a real key number at a fair price can be tolerable. Making it standard operating procedure is a slow leak that compounds against you. The juice almost always costs more than the protection is worth. Stay patient, shop the numbers, and let the hooks fall where they fall. That approach has kept more bankrolls healthy than any amount of buying ever will.

Alex Smart

My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We deserved a better fate than a loss with the 'under' in Jose Soriano's most recent start. The bullpens came unglued in an eventual 6-4 Blue Jays victory but Soriano was once again on point, allowing just one earned run over six innings. Rays starter Nick Martinez continues to enjoy a career year. He did give up four earned runs in his most recent start but that was a complete game victory at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. The Blue Jays aren't consistently producing at the plate right now, relying on their strong pitching to keep them in the A.L. Wild Card race. Thanks to an off day on Monday, they'll have all hands on deck in their bullpen on Tuesday. The Rays weren't so fortunate to be off on Monday but I do think they're well-positioned to keep Toronto's lukewarm bats at bay. Take the under (8*).

Padres vs Mets MLB FREE PICK

The Angle(s): The San Diego Padres hand the ball to veteran southpaw Robbie Ray (10-7, 3.28 ERA), who gives San Diego a massive edge in this matchup given the Mets' agonizing struggles against left-handed pitching this season. New York has been a bankroll drainer against southpaws, posting an abysmal 13-21 record (-32% ROI) when facing left-handed starters. Additionally, as home underdogs, the Mets have collapsed to a 2-11 record (-67% ROI). 

The Mets counter by sending rookie right-hander Zac Thornton (3-3, 2.78 ERA) to the bump, and while Thornton's ERA looks shiny enough through his limited action, New York is an auto-fade in this specific betting role. 

San Diego comes into this contest riding strong momentum (7-3 over their last 10 games) and boasting a lineup equipped to capitalize on New York’s home-dog struggles.

The Bet: Padres (3%). 

1% GOLD RUSH on Aryna Sabalenka/X Wang: over 19

FREE PLAY on Diamondbacks +160

PSP Data Driven 1* Guardians.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The Giants are 3-6 in their last 9 games. The Guardians are 5-3 in the last 8 head to head meetings.

For my best free pick on the board here for Tuesday I am looking at the WNBA and the Atlanta Dream at the Las Vegas Aces. Two top teams in the WNBA both are off big losses last time out. This game means more to Atlanta who has lost 7 straight head to head with the Aces 2 of them happening this season. I see this game being razor tight until the final buzzer and love getting a possession in my pocket with the Dream. 

Play on the Atlanta Dream plus the points rotation #621

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