Free Sports Picks of the Day

3* on Mandel Nallo

Free Total Annihilator On Brewers vs Marlins under 8½ -115

Free Play on Padres +117

No National League team has played more Overs this season than Washington. The Over has cashed in 13 of Washington's 19 games. That's not a huge surprise considering the Nationals are averaging the second most runs in the majors while having the highest bullpen ERA at 6.15.

The Nationals have scored at least five runs in 14 of their 19 games. Now they host the Giants and Logan Webb, who has a history of pitching much worse on the road with a 3.98 ERA compared to a 2.90 ERA when pitching in San Francisco.

The Giants' run production is down on the season. But lately San Francisco's offense has shown life scoring at least six runs in three of the past five games. San Francisco ranks 11th in batting average.

Not only do the Giants get to face the worst bullpen in the majors, but also draw starting  pitcher Zack Littell. He has a 4.20 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP and has surrendered five homers in 15 innings.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover has his MLB Total of the Week today in addition to this free selection. Stephen is having a winning baseball season and is 29-15 on his last 44 premium/free NBA plays and 31-16-2 on his last 49 NHL premium/free plays.) 

Ricky's 7* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Over is 6-3 in Colorado's last 9 games against an opponent in the National League West Division.

- The Over is 6-3 in LA Dodgers' last 9 games against an opponent in the National League.

- The Over is 12-6 in LA Dodgers' last 18 games played in April.

Verdict: We should see plenty of Points in this game.

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Tampa Bay Rays +110

The Tampa Bay Rays are 6-0 in their last six games overall and hitting the cover off the ball.  They have scored at least 5 runs in all six victories.  Getting the Rays as underdogs to the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight is nice value.

Nick Martinez has posted a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in three starts for the Rays this season.  He has allowed just 4 earned runs and 16 base runners in 16 2/3 innings.  Martinez loves facing the Pirates, going 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in four career starts against them while allowing just 3 earned runs in 22 innings.

Bubba Chandler is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 22 base runners in 14 innings.  He'll be backed by a tired Pittsburgh bullpen.  The Pirates will be playing for an 8th consecutive day with six of their last seven games decided by 2 runs or fewer.  Bet the Rays Friday.

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1* Free Pick on Suns -3½

The Phoenix Suns are in a prime position to clinch the final playoff spot in the West this Friday night.
They have been a rock at the Mortgage Matchup Center lately and bring a top-six scoring defense into this elimination game.

The Golden State Warriors are playing on very thin ice after a grueling win over the Clippers on Wednesday.
This is their second win-or-go-home game in 48 hours and the fatigue should be a major factor in the second half.

The absence of Jimmy Butler is the biggest hurdle for the Warriors in this matchup.
Without Butler’s elite wing defense, Golden State has no answer for Devin Booker, who is averaging over 26 points per game.

Phoenix also has a significant edge in the coaching and depth department right now.
Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks provide a dual scoring threat that the Warriors' perimeter defense has struggled to contain all season.

The injury report favors the Suns as well, with the Warriors monitoring Kristaps Porzingis’ ankle after he was seen limping post-game on Wednesday.
If Porzingis is limited or out, Golden State loses its only real rim protection against a Suns team that loves to attack the paint.

Phoenix finished the regular season with a defensive rating that ranks in the top ten of the league.
They allow just 111.1 points per contest and do a great job of forcing opponents into tough, contested mid-range jumpers.

Golden State relies far too heavily on Stephen Curry to bail them out of possessions.
Curry is seeing double teams on almost every touch, and the Warriors' secondary playmakers have been turnover-prone under pressure.

The Suns rank much higher in shooting efficiency and free throw rate at home.
They should be able to get to the line early and often against a tired Warriors frontcourt.

Expect the Suns to use their rest advantage to pull away in the fourth quarter.
The depth and defensive discipline of this Phoenix squad will be the difference in securing that eighth seed.

Bet Suns -3.5.

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Dave's Friday Free Play:

1* on Arizona Diamondbacks -130

The Key: The Diamondbacks have the rest edge after having Thursday off while the Blue Jays were losing in Milwaukee.  The Blue Jays fell to 3-10 in their last 13 games overall.  They are so injured offensively right now and have scored 2 runs or fewer in 3 of their last 4 contests.  It won't get any easier for their lineup today up against Mike Soroka, who is 3-0 with a 2.87 ERA in 3 starts while yielding just 5 ER in 15 2/3 innings with 23 strikeouts.  Toronto will make this a bullpen game with Eric Lauer getting the bulk of the innings.  Lauer is 1-2 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 3 starts this year.  The Blue Jays have a 4.52 ERA as a bullpen this year.  Take Arizona.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Guardians -130

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Phoenix Suns -2.5

The Phoenix Suns are coming off an upset loss to the Portland Trail Blazers in which they blew a double-digit lead. The Golden State Warriors are coming off a double-digit comeback victory over the Los Angeles Clippers. Those two results are giving us the Suns at a discount as only 2.5-point favorites over the Warriors tonight. Consider the Clippers were 5.5-point home favorites over the Warriors last game, and now the Suns are only 2.5-point home favorites. I would argue the Suns are better than the Clippers. The Suns will have the proper game plan to limit what Steph Curry can do. They also have the rest advantage getting two days off in between games, while the Warriors only have one day off. Give me the Suns.

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1* Free Sharp Play on A's -140

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Take LAFC/San Jose UNDER (7 p.m. EST, Sunday April 19) This is a major Western Conference clash between two title contenders and these have been the best two defensive sides in MLS this season (along with Seattle). They have allowed a combined four goals through 14 combined matches! Not only is this a big match for Western Conference status, but this is a great test for the Earthquake to show how solid they really are this season. Two seasons ago this was one of the worst sides in MLS but they rebuilt quickly and have a great squad this season. LAFC probably has the best chance to represent the west in the MLS Cup, so San Jose will want to play well here and we think they lean into their defense. These sides are behind the Vancouver Whitecaps in the Western Conference standings, and that team has an easy matchup Friday, so both sides here will want to keep pace. These matchups have generally been high scoring, but the Earthquake are a more focused defensive side this season and we think they will treat this like a playoff matchup and dig deep defensively.

Padres +122

San Diego is the move against the Angels. The Padres send out Matt Waldron, who makes his first start this season. He started the season at Triple A and didn’t give up a run over 12 innings. Soriano counters and while he’s been lights out, he’s going to see some regression. San Diego is playing well and this lineup is just too deep. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be cheap bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Tonight’s FREE selection is a strong lean on the PADRES ML. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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Oh boy, Saturday night in Winnipeg is shaping up to be one of those fun, loud Canadian cards where the crowd gets rowdy early and the main event could actually deliver some drama. Headlining it is Mike Malott, the hometown hero on a three-fight win streak, taking on Gilbert “Durinho” Burns in a five-round welterweight scrap. On paper, Malott’s the big favorite, younger, coming off solid wins, fighting in front of his people. But if you’ve followed the division long enough, you know these exact setups have a habit of biting favorites in the ass when a crafty veteran like Burns smells blood at plus money.

Here’s the thing that keeps jumping out at me: over the last few years in welterweight main events and high-profile five-rounders, we’ve seen this quiet trend where battle-tested guys with legit grappling pedigrees hang around, survive the early storm, and start dictating things once the pace slows. Burns is basically the poster child for that. At 39 he’s on a tough four-fight skid, sure, and he’s taken some real shots lately, but the numbers still show a guy who averages over two takedowns per 15 minutes and has nine career submissions on his record. That’s not just fluff—that’s chain-wrestling and mat control that can wear even explosive fighters down when the rounds pile up.

Malott’s no joke. He’s put together wins with both power and decisions, and his finishing rate is impressive. But look closer at how some of these hometown prospects have fared when the spotlight gets bright and the fight goes long. His average fight time sits noticeably shorter than Burns’, and we’ve watched similar Canadian or rising local favorites get dragged into deep waters where experience and late-round IQ start to matter way more than the first-round pop. Burns has been in there with killers,former champs, top contenders—and he’s shown time and again he can mix striking pressure with grappling chains that force opponents to burn energy scrambling.

Another angle that’s paid off more than people remember: when veterans with elite BJJ step up as dogs in welterweight spots, especially against guys still building their resume at the highest level, the plus money has cashed enough times to notice. It’s not about age alone; it’s about that extra octagon time teaching you exactly when to slow things down, when to clinch, and when to turn a scramble into control. Malott brings a reach advantage and solid volume, but if Burns can force the kind of extended grappling exchanges he thrives in, we could see the kind of fatigue that’s shown up in other prospects’ longer fights.

Don’t get me wrong, the Winnipeg crowd is going to be electric, and Malott could come out firing and make this a short night. That’s always the risk with these spots. But if you zoom out on recent welterweight trends, the veteran dog with the grappling edge has been a live play way more often than the odds suggest, particularly when the favorite is still proving he can handle 25 minutes against someone who’s seen every look.

Bottom line, this is the kind of underdog I actually get excited about,not some random longshot, but a spot where the plus money feels earned because of the matchup dynamics and the way these fights tend to play out historically. Burns might not be the flashiest pick on the card, but for my money, he’s the most interesting one when the cage door shuts.

Like always, fights are chaos and anything can happen once they touch gloves. Should be a good one.

My selection is on Detroit over Boston at 7:15 pm et on Friday.

I think the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this matchup. The Red Sox are probably breathing a sigh of relief after they avoided a series sweep in Minnesota with a lopsided victory on Wednesday. They probably would have liked to have been right back on the field yesterday to keep it rolling off that offensive breakout. I think they're going to be in tough in the opener of this series as they send a slow-starting Ranger Suarez to the hill against Case Mize of the Tigers. Suarez will settle in over time I'm sure but for now he owns a 4.49 FIP and 1.47 WHIP through his first three starts with Boston. Like Suarez, Mize is off to a bit of a shaky start to the campaign as well. With that being said, his best outing did come on the road in Arizona and he has been slightly better than his 3.94 ERA indicates as he sports a 3.67 FIP. I do like the Tigers offense a little more than the Red Sox. I'll also point out that the Detroit bullpen is in excellent shape having logged just 16 2/3 innings over the last week (3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with four saves converted and one blown over that stretch). Take Detroit (8*).

FREE PLAY on Brewers/Marlins under 8½

PSP Data Driven 1* Warriors.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. Golden State is 4-1 in its last 5 games against Phoenix. Phoenix is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games.