Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Tigers +116

1* Bet on Mystics -1½

*2 Star Play Under* The Washington Mystics have a lot to play for, and they are the team who I expect to dictate the tempo and the way this game is played. Chicago is packing it in for the season and they will be short handed here. Washington is one of the best defenses in the WNBA. The Mystics slow the game down here and it stays lower scoring. Take the under. 

1* Free Pick on Lions +5½

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Boston Red Sox -118

The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Texas Rangers.  They have a big advantage on the mound tonight that should lead them to taking Game 3.

Sonny Gray is 17-5 with a 2.76 ERA in 27 starts for the Red Sox this season.  He has been at his best on the road, going 10-3 with a 2.62 ERA in 14 starts away from home.  Gray has owned the Rangers, going 12-5 with a 2.69 ERA in 19 career starts against them, including 7-1 with a 2.07 ERA in nine road starts.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 20 innings in his last three starts against Texas.

Tyler Alexander will serve as an opener for the Rangers before giving way to Cody Bradford.  Bradford is 0-5 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.57 ERA in seven starts this season with just 17 K's in 34 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 11 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings in his last three starts.  Bet the Red Sox Thursday.

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Ricky's 1* play on CHW.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The White Sox are 7-3 in the last 10 head to head meetings.

- Erick Fedde is 5-0 in his last 5 starts for the White Sox.

- The White Sox are 3-0 in the last 3 head to head meetings at home.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

1* Free Play on Mystics/Sky under 165½ -110

LUCK FACTOR: Washington is +4.8 while Chicago is -1.4, producing a massive 6.2-game Luck Gap toward Chicago. Washington has substantially outperformed its expected-win profile while Chicago has underperformed.

SYSTEM: Play rested home teams when BOTH clubs have at least seven days off: 22-8 ATS (73.3%), +$1,320, 40.0% ROI.

MARKET: Washington opened -3.5 and has fallen to approximately -1.5. Instead of chasing a TWO-POINT move, we’re fading it.

CONTRARIAN: 77% of spread bets are on Washington versus only 63% of the money.

Personnel is the primary negative. Chicago is eliminated and depleted while Washington has playoff motivation, although the Mystics are also missing Sonia Citron.

The two HEAVIEST quantitative components independently point to Chicago.

Seattle has the second worst offensive efficiency in the WNBA. But that is not the only reason why I like Las Vegas and the Storm to go Under the total today.

These two teams, like the rest of the WNBA, have been idle for nearly three weeks because of the FIBA World Cup Tournament that was held in Germany.

The Aces had four players competing in the tournament, including stars Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young.

There is going to be a rust factor for the many players who didn't participate in the tournament, while there will be a jet lag factor for those who did.

Aces coach Becky Hammon said she will be balancing the need to keep her team sharp for the playoffs later this month while also trying to keep her team healthy. That should mean reduced minutes for superstar A'Ja Wilson and stars Young and Gray.

The Aces have a weak bench. The Storm do one thing very well - they rank first in defensive 3-point percentage.

So given all these factors and variables, I like the Under. 

1* Free Pick on Lions/Bills: under 55

A total of 55 sits at the extreme top of the NFL board, and it got there off a one-game sample from each team.

The case against the under is obvious.

Buffalo put up 36 on Houston Sunday, Detroit hung 31 on New Orleans in overtime, and Josh Allen accounted for 4 total touchdowns.

I'm not arguing with any of that.

I'm arguing with the price.

Both teams have played exactly 1 game this season, and the books priced this like both offenses repeat that output on 3 days of rest.

That's recency bias, not handicapping.

Thursday games are a different animal.

No real practice week, no full install, tired legs on both sides.

Offenses feel it more than defenses.

Detroit's protection is the bigger issue.

Guard Christian Mahogany left Week 1 with a knee injury and Dan Campbell admitted he isn't out of the woods.

Tackle Blake Miller and guard Juice Scruggs are also questionable.

Jared Goff behind a patched line, on the road, against Bills edge Greg Rousseau, who sacked C.J.

Stroud twice Sunday.

That's stalled drives and field goals.

Detroit's own plan slows this down too.

Jahmyr Gibbs handled 29 of the team's 31 backfield carries in Week 1.

That's a run-heavy identity that bleeds clock and caps possessions.

And the pass rush cuts both ways: Lions end Aidan Hutchinson posted 2 sacks of his own Sunday.

A 55 needs roughly 8 touchdowns of scoring on a short week with banged-up lines.

I'll take the number the market overreacted to.

I like the Under

1* NFL - Steelers/Patriots FREE PICK on Patriots -5

Dave's Thursday Free Play:

1* on Kansas City Royals +135

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Kansas City Royals tonight.  The Astros are really choking away the division going 1-4 in their last 5 games overall. They have scored 2 runs or fewer in 4 of their last 6 games going ice cold at the plate.  Houston will have to make this a bullpen game with Miguel Ullola as the opener.  Seth Lugo is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Astros yielding only 3 ER in 21 innings.  Take Kansas City.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Lions vs Bills over 54½ -110

Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Thursday 9-17-26

Philadelphia @ NY Mets  (7:15 PM EST)
Play On:  Philadelphia +122

The Philadelphia Phillies travel to New York to take on the Mets on Thursday night.  Philadelphia is 84-68 SU overall this year while the Mets come in with a 69-83 SU overall record on the season.  The Mets are 34-43 at home this year.  The Mets are 1-5 overall over the past week.  The Mets are 5-15 this year at home after a loss of 4 runs or more.  Philadelphia is 11-2 this year on the road after scoring 3 runs or less in 2 straight games.  Philadelphia is 5-1 last 6 games against a team with a losing record.  We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocketman is off a solid 2-0 day on Wednesday cashing with Minnesota and Toronto in MLB!  Rocky Atkinson has a TOP 8* MLB BEST BET for Thursday afternoon.  Don't miss out!  Let 30 years of experience do the work for you today!

Thursday night 2X System NFL Headlines with a Lead 20-1 Prime Time System. Football 10-3 overall run. WNBA Comp play below

The WNBA Comp play is on Dallas at 8 eastern. The Wings have won both games in the series with the LA Sparks and From the database we see that home favorites of 3 or more with 10+ days rest that won the last game in the series have covered 7 of 8 times. With just over a week left in the season some teams are just playing out the string at this point. Look for Dallas to get the cover here.

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Soccer Take San Jose +0.5 GL over LAFC (7:30 p.m. EST, Saturday September 19) San Jose hadn’t won a match since the World Cup up until recently but lo and behold they have now won two straight and look like a completely different side. They manhandled a good San Diego side on the road in a 3-2 win that was more dominant than the final score might indicate. And last week they gutted out a 1-0 win here at home vs. a Houston side that is one of the top teams in the Western Conference. We were on San Jose in that one and mentioned in our writeup that one of the main problems with the Earthquakes since the World Cup break is that they were lacking confidence and now they seem to have it back in spades and their play has been exceptionally strong. They are now unbeaten in four straight matches, and they are back in a Top 4 spot in the West with a chance to move higher with three points here. We only need a draw however, to cash this ticket, and we think they can do enough to get at least a point. LAFC is coming off a 3-1 road loss at Kansas City, one of MLS’s worst sides. LAFC are behind the Earthquakes in the standings despite all the struggles San Jose has faced since the World Cup break. They have only one win in their last eight MLS matches, and this side is just not playing championship-caliber futbol right now. San Jose always raises their level of play when LAFC comes to town and have won five of the last six meetings here.

1* Free Pick on Lions/Bills under 55 -105

Lions +5.5

Detroit is worth a free move with the points. The Lions were dominated their Week 1 matchup with the Saints before a frantic comeback late by New Orleans. Ultimately, the Lions held off in overtime and now they are being undervalued in this spot. Buffalo had a come from behind win themselves Week 1, but this is a matchup where Detroit has the firepower to keep. Expect a back and forth game where both teams produce scoring chances. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the LIONS ATS. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Thursday FREE NFL ATS Play

FOOTBALL IS HERE! 425-366 54% +2163. The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. A BIG 3× Play Card is up for today, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Thursday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: White Sox -127

Saturday night in Los Angeles has that rematch-tax feel, a title fight priced like a coin flip because the first one lasted 26 seconds, and plus-110 on Alexandre Pantoja is the side I want you holding. Not because Joshua Van is a mirage. Because Van is 17-2 and the champ, and the market flipped a former titleholder into plus money off an arm injury, not off five rounds of solved tape. You are not fading Van to lose his belt in a street fight. You are fading the idea that 26 seconds is a hierarchy. That is a different ticket. Decision cashes. Late stoppage cashes. A wrestling grind into a submission is the gift. The chalk is the dart if you want to pay juice to sleep. The plus money is the work.

Bet Pantoja as a plus-money rematch dog after an injury stoppage under one minute. First meeting at UFC 323: Van by TKO at 0:26 after Pantoja’s arm gave out, not after Van pieced him up for 25 minutes. Pantoja entered that booking as a sizable favorite in the minus-185 to minus-270 range. Now he sits plus-110 to plus-118. That flip is the number. (+1.0 units, ROI=90.9%). Bet former champions getting immediate rematches when the first fight produced almost no film. Pantoja 30-6, belt for more than two years, 12 career submissions. Van 17-2 with one successful defense, a fifth-round stoppage of Tatsuro Taira at UFC 328. The tape on this pairing is still a scramble. (+1.0 units, ROI=81.8%). Bet the dog when the favorite’s title win is a 26-second sample and the veteran’s path is wrestling and pace. If this starts round two, the injury result starts looking like a bad price, not a settled pecking order. (+1.0 units, ROI=90.9%).

Van is the younger pressure fighter and the market is buying the momentum. Fair. He is 17-2, the flyweight champion, and he finished Taira in the fifth after a long, ugly climb. That is real. The other side of the ledger is just as loud if you actually read it. Pantoja is 30-6. He held the belt more than two years. He has 12 submission wins. His whole career has been get it to the mat, squeeze the air out of the room, and make five-round title fights feel like a tax. A full camp and a healthy arm is a different animal than a first-minute scramble that ended before anyone’s corner could stand up. Van by decision or late stoppage is the public script. Pantoja by control and a late hook is the ticket that still has math behind it.

The rest of the plus-money board at UFC 331 is louder and thinner, which is how main-card dogs get you chasing heat instead of price. Mauricio Ruffy is plus-245 to plus-270 against Arman Tsarukyan, 14-2 power against a 23-3 wrestler who wants a lightweight title shot. That is a one-punch live dog, not a process. Marlon Vera is plus-180 to plus-200 against Charles Jourdain, a former title challenger on a four-fight skid, 23-12-1 with 18 career finishes, eight by knockout and 10 by submission, still dangerous late and still leaking decisions. Alonzo Menifield is plus-190 to plus-215 against Iwo Baraniewski, veteran 18-6-1 power versus a 9-0 kid with three straight first-round knockouts in the UFC and an average fight time near a minute. Those are action tickets. You can sprinkle them if you like chaos. They are not the cleanest number on the card.

UFC stats sheets do not care about coronation graphics. Van’s recent form is pressure, volume, and a fifth-round finish. Pantoja’s career sheet is title minutes, takedown sequences, and a submission rate that turns round four into a different sport. The first fight did not test either of those things. It tested an elbow. Over 3.5 rounds is sitting in a range that tells you the market itself does not believe this ends in 26 seconds again. Fight goes the distance is plus money. Pantoja by submission is the long shot that actually matches his 12-sub ledger if he ever gets on top. I am not asking you to live on method props. I am asking you to stop treating an injury TKO like a five-round dissertation.

Public money will hammer Van because he is the champ, because Taira went away in the fifth, and because “once you have the belt the rematch is yours.” That is how plus-110 gets to the window looking like a fade instead of a former champion priced off a broken sample. Do not buy this down into a pick’em and pay extra juice to feel safer. The plus-110 is the reason I am writing it. Sit on your hands. Let the first two minutes look messy. If they are still standing in round two and Pantoja has even one takedown in the bank, the number is already working.

I’ve sat through enough rematch cards to know the chaos is real, 26-second titles create fake certainty, young champs get bet like they’ve already solved the veteran, and a 30-6 former titleholder with 12 submissions does not turn into a plus-money tourist just because an arm gave out before the first commercial. If Van walks through him again, we tip the cap and move on. If this thing lives in the wrestling and the late minutes, the plus money does what we paid it to do. That is the bet. Take Pantoja. Do not overthink the 26-second coronation. The first fight did not answer the question. Alexandre Pantoja plus-110 is the play.

My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

Bettors are anticipating a shootout between the Lions and Bills at brand new Highmark Stadium in Buffalo on Thursday. I believe this total will prove too high. Detroit ended up involved in a high-scoring 31-30 overtime game against New Orleans on Sunday. It was a tale of two halves as the Lions defense completely shut down the Saints offense early before coming unglued late, ultimately coughing up a 21-0 lead. Meanwhile, the Bills absolutely eviscerated an elite Texans defense in a big road win in Houston. Buffalo's defense obviously has some work to do after that poor performance, however. It does catch a break here with the Lions offensive line dealing with a cluster of injuries and the team travelling on a short week. It's early in the season and I'm just not ready to go 'over' a total this lofty, even in a game that features such elite offensive talent. Take the under (8*).

FREE PLAY on Lions +5½

3* on Lions

PSP Data Driven 1* Lions.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. The Bills are 3-4 ATS in their last 7 games. The Bills are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 home games.

Syracuse has lost 9 of its last 10 games. Quarterback Steve Angeli has thrown for 570 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.  Syracuse Orange is averaging 178.5 yards on the ground per game. Tylik Hill has rushed for 147 yards and 1 touchdown. On the defensive side, they are giving up 12 points and 204 yards per game. The Pittsburgh Panthers are trying to start 3-0 for the second time in the last three years. Mason Heintschel has thrown for 665 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. The Pittsburgh Panthers’ rush for 134.5 yards per contest, with Damon Ferguson Jr. gaining 81 yards and 1 touchdown. Pittsburgh is giving up 10.5 points and 247.5 yards per game. Syracuse also runs mostly RPO and throwing deep on offense. With the short turnaround that could cause some problems with the PITT defense.PITT is the better team, but I look for Syracuse to keep this score within the number

Play on Syracuse +10.5. This is a FREE PLAY.

For one of my top free picks here for Sunday in the NFL I am looking at the Washington Commanders at the Dallas Cowboys. Both teams off a loss but the Commanders were in Philadelphia playing the best team in the NFC East the Eagles. Cowboys couldn’t get it done in New York huge difference. Washington should be able to keep this one within a field goal. Washington has the better defense and I think this team can run the ball against Dallas. 

Play on the Washington Commanders plus the points rotation #271

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