Free Sports Picks of the Day

1* Bet on Fever/Sky: under 187½

(#952) Washington Nationals | ML | . 

Ryan Feltner (5-7, 5.97 ERA) vs. Cade Cavalli (11-5, 3.22 ERA) . 

For many years in a row now, it's been a struggle for starting pitchers of the Rockies to get anything going. Playing at Coors Field doesn't help. But, Colorado never seems to get a guy that's so dominant that it doesn't matter. Ryan Feltner owns a 1-4 record & 5.54 in road games this season which just isn't going to cut it when you have to play in the elevation in the other games. Playing against the highest scoring team in baseball, it's going to be difficult for him this evening. Cade Cavalli hasn't really gotten the respect that he deserves. He's gone consecutive starts without giving up a run (14.0 total innings) and is probably the best pitcher in this rotation at the moment. Up against a dreadful Rockies team, give me the Nats to win big in the series opener. 

Burns' Prediction: 7-3 Nationals.

1* Free Play on Storm/Wings under 173½ -110

Brewers -122

Milwaukee is worth a free move here. Tyler Mahle has struggled this season, as he comes in just 4-10 with an ERA of 4.53. He has struggled with his command and it’s led him to having to deal with a lot of traffic on the bases at times. The Brewers offensively are one of the best in the MLB and situationally hitting has been their speciality. Shane Drohan has found some consistency lately and adds to the value. Back the Brewers. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the BREWERS ML. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE MLB ML Play

3-0 Saturday! EN FUEGO! 393-326 55% +3339 since Mid-Dec! The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. A BIG 2× Play Card is up for today, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Free Play on Aces -11 -110

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Twins/Padres OVER 8.5

The Minnesota Twins are an OVER team going 72-56-2 OVER in all games.  They are scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  They are as healthy as they've been all season offensively and it is showing.  They have scored at least 4 runs in five of their last six contests.

The Padres are also going through their best offensive stretch of the season to help get them back in playoff contention.  They have scored at least 3 runs in 14 of their last 17 games.  Look for both offenses to have their way with these two suspect starting pitchers again today.

Bailey Ober has big home/road splits this season.  Ober is 7-4 with a 4.62 ERA in 19 starts, including 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in eight road starts while allowing 30 earned runs in 40 innings.  He is backed by a poor Minnesota bullpen with a 4.74 ERA this season.

Walker Buehler hasn't been any better, going 7-6 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 25 starts for the Padres this season.  While the Padres have a solid bullpen, they have used their top arms to close out the first two games of this series against the Twins, including Mason Miller in both.  They likely won't have their top arms available today.

The OVER is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings between the Padres and Twins.  They have gone for 8 or more combined runs in nine consecutive meetings, including 9 or more combined runs in six of their last seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

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1* Free Pick on Fever -2½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Atlanta Braves +104

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Atlanta Braves tonight.  They will be hungry to avoid the sweep after dropping the first 2 games of this series in Milwaukee.  But this Game 3 will be played on a neutral in Willamsport, PA for the Little League Classic tonight.  And Tyler Mahle has been a new pitcher since being traded to Atlanta.  He has yielded only 3 ER and 16 base runners in 18 2/3 innings in his first 3 starts for the Braves this year.  Shane Drohan looks to be wearing down for the Brewers in his 1st full season as a starter.  He has yielded 3 ER or more in 5 of his last 7 starts.  Drohan sports a 6.04 ERA in his last 5 starts while yielding 19 ER in 28 1/3 innings.  Take Atlanta.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Cubs/Mariners OVER 7.5

The Cubs are 9-4-1 OVER in their last 14 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 14 games.  The Mariners are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games.  Shota Imanaga is 8-9 with a 3.83 ERA while giving up 29 home runs in 25 starts this season.  Bryce Miller is 4-7 with a 3.71 ERA while giving up 15 home runs in 15 starts this season.  Miller has given up at least one home run in seven consecutive starts.  Imanaga has given up 7 home runs in his last four starts.  Give me the OVER.

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Rocketman Sports FREE WNBA play Sunday 8-23-26

Las Vegas @ Toronto  (7:00 PM EST)
Play On:  Las Vegas -11

The Las Vegas Aces travel to Toronto to take on the Tempo on Sunday night.  Las Vegas is 25-14 SU overall this year while Toronto comes in with an 11-25 SU overall record on the season.  Toronto is 3-15 SU over the past 2 months allowing 96.5 points per game and 0-8 SU over the past month allowing 99.9 points per game.  Las Vegas is 8-2 ATS last 10 games against a team with a losing record.  We'll recommend a small play on Las Vegas tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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Sunday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Brewers -122 

Looking at the Week 0 board this year, one number keeps staring me right in the face. TCU laying a touchdown against North Carolina over in Dublin feels like the cleanest play on the early slate.

I have been on this one for a while now. TCU has the more settled roster, especially in the trenches, and that continuity matters more than most people want to admit in Week 0. North Carolina is still sorting through a heavy overhaul in Belichick’s second season, with a new offensive coordinator trying to install a system on the fly and a pile of new bodies who have not taken meaningful snaps together yet. In college football, that gap tends to show up early, especially when both teams have to fly across the ocean for a noon kick.

Neutral-site openers have always been kind to the more physical, more experienced side. Over the last fifteen years, favorites laying between six and eight points in true neutral-site season openers have covered right around 58 percent of the time. At standard juice you only need to hit 52.4 percent to break even, so that edge is real. When you tighten the filter to games that involved long-haul or overseas travel, the favorite’s cover rate climbs closer to 61 percent and the under hits nearly 60 percent of the time. The average total in those spots has finished almost four points under the number. Jet lag is no joke, and neither is limited practice time before a transatlantic flight.

TCU has been the more consistent outfit under Sonny Dykes. His teams usually play with a clear physical identity and they do not mind grinding it out early in the season. North Carolina, meanwhile, has spent the last couple of years looking like a roster still trying to figure out who belongs where. Historical trends for ACC teams opening against Big 12 competition on neutral fields lean toward the side with better line continuity, and TCU checks that box. Favorites in this exact range that also held a clear edge up front have covered better than 60 percent since the mid-2010s. That is the kind of number that keeps the lights on if you stay disciplined.

I will take the under as a secondary piece if the total sits near 48. Early-season scoring is often suppressed when teams are still installing, traveling, and playing a little tight. Both sides prefer a physical brand of football, and that style rarely produces fireworks in the first half of a Week 0 game on foreign soil.

Hawai’i getting points at Stanford and Memphis as a small dog against UNLV are fine secondary looks if you like chasing value on the dog side. I generally leave the massive numbers alone unless the total is screaming. This TCU spot is different. It is the kind of early-season situation where the sharper side of the board usually cashes, and the travel factor only adds another layer of protection.

I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again, but this one sits right with me. Continuity, trenches, travel, and the historical numbers all point the same direction. If the line drifts a half-point either way I am still on it. Good luck if you decide to ride along.

Note: I bet this selection while was able to get -7. But it s still good at this number.

Please unless your a weekend warrior do not buy off the hook.

BUYING OFF THE HOOK 

Buying off the hook is one of those moves that feels smart in the moment and slowly bleeds you over time. I have watched plenty of sharp money and square money both fall into the same trap, and the long-term numbers do not lie. You are paying extra juice to move the line half a point or a full point so a common final margin turns into a push or a win instead of a loss. Classic example is laying the three and a half instead of the three, or taking the plus three and a half instead of the plus three. The hook disappears, your ticket looks safer, and the price quietly climbs from minus one-ten to minus one-twenty or worse.

That extra juice is the real problem. Standard minus one-ten needs you to cash about fifty-two point four percent just to break even. Jump to minus one-twenty and you need roughly fifty-four and a half percent. At minus one-thirty you are staring at fifty-six and a half percent. Those two to four extra points of required win rate add up fast across a season. The probability of a game landing exactly on the number you bought off is almost never high enough to cover the cost over hundreds of plays.

Football is where the conversation gets loudest because the key numbers actually matter. Three and seven have historically been the biggest hooks in both the NFL and college game. League-wide data over the last decade shows finals of three happening in the high teens percentage range and sevens in the low double digits. Buying off those numbers is the only spot where the math gets closer to break-even. Even then you are usually still overpaying. Outside of those true keys the half-points become pure juice leaks. Teams that routinely buy from three and a half to three or from seven and a half to seven have shown thin or negative edges once you factor in the price.

Basketball is a different animal. NBA and college totals and spreads move around half-points constantly, but the distribution of final margins is flatter. Landing exactly on a three or a four happens less often than football’s big keys, so the value of buying the half-point is even thinner. Same story in baseball with the run line. Buying from one and a half to one or two and a half to two costs you juice that the frequency of those exact margins rarely repays. Soccer worldwide, whether Premier League, La Liga, Serie A or the big South American leagues, runs mostly on Asian handicaps where the half-goal and quarter-goal moves are already priced aggressively. Buying further off the number there is usually just giving the book more of your money for protection you do not need.

I have seen the same pattern in hockey, tennis, and the rest of the major venues. The public loves the feeling of being off the hook. The long-term winners almost never make it a habit. They would rather shop for the best available number, take the standard juice, and live with the occasional hook loss. The ones who grind out profits treat buying points like a last resort, not a regular tool. Only when the price is unusually soft on a true key number does the play even enter the conversation, and those spots are rare.

The bottom line is simple. Occasional, selective buys off a real key number at a fair price can be tolerable. Making it standard operating procedure is a slow leak that compounds against you. The juice almost always costs more than the protection is worth. Stay patient, shop the numbers, and let the hooks fall where they fall. That approach has kept more bankrolls healthy than any amount of buying ever will.

Alex Smart

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Indiana at 7 pm et on Sunday.

Tough spot for the Fever here after they just played (and lost) against the Liberty in New York last night. The Sky on the other hand are rested and feeling pretty good about themselves off three straight wins including two in a row ATS. The Sky dropped a four-point decision at home against the Fever earlier this month and while we have seen an adjustment to the pointspread in this rematch, I'm not convinced it will be enough. Look for Chicago to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Chicago (8*).

Our selection is on the Atlanta Dream to defeat the Los Angeles Sparks on Monday at 10:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Atlanta has turned up it's levels lately with a three game win streak and wins in five of it's L6 games.

The Dream are one of the top road teams as well this year with a 12-7 record in these contests. They just beat LAS by 36 points.

It's pretty obvious that Los Angeles has given this season as it had lost in six straight games before it finally beat Connecticut (a nine win team).

The Sparks are already eliminated from the playoffs for this upcoming season and do not have a lot to play for.

We're on the Dream to blow the Sparks out for the second time in less than a week.

AAA Sports

Twins vs Padres MLB Free Pick 

4-0 FREE PICK RUN!

The Angle(s): The San Diego Padres are a solid 24-14 as home favorites, including a scorching hot 5-1 with a +45% ROI with Walker Buehler (7-6, 4.79 ERA) as the starter. They've won six of Buehler's last seven starts overall, while Twins righty

Bailey Ober (7-4, 4.62 ERA) has needed a lot of support lately, posting a 5.47 ERA over his last five starts. 

The Bet: Padres 3%).

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1% GOLD RUSH on Fever -2½

FREE PLAY on Sky +3½

The Cubs let one get away yesterday and are now 7 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Seattle's Miller has allowed 20 hits and 14 earned runs in his last 15.2 innings. The Mariners have lost 7 straight games Miller has pitched. Seattle is has been inconsistent this season. Take the Cubs to bounce back and get a win today.

Play on Chicago. This is a FREE PLAY!

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For my best free pick on the board here for Sunday in WNBA action I am looking at the Chicago Sky hosting the Indiana Fever. Fever come into this game off a huge emotional matchup against the hated NY Liberty. Fever can’t afford to rest any stars in this one so I expect everyone to play. Sky are red hot off 3 straight wins the last 2 against some of the best teams in the WNBA the Liberty and Valkyries. Chicago has been a super cover team this year and thats all I am looking for them to do for us on Sunday get the cover. Chicago 2 straight covers against the Fever will be 3 after Sunday. 

Play on the Chicago Sky plus the points rotation #648

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The strongest case is on Tennessee, but it stops short of premium because there is one meaningful system conflict.

The personnel edge is significant. Cam Ward and Tennessee’s available starters are expected to play roughly 20–25 snaps, while Seattle is expected to sit essentially all of its established starters and use Drew Lock and Jalen Milroe at quarterback. Ward is exactly the preferred preseason profile: a young starter who needs live repetitions and is coming off a poor preseason opener, giving Tennessee both developmental and bounce-back motivation. Seattle’s most attractive quarterback is Milroe, but he is expected to arrive after Lock. 

The current betting splits strengthen Tennessee considerably. Seattle is taking 79% of the spread tickets but only 56% of the money. That is an unusually strong public-underdog profile. Worldwide contrarian indicators — offshore, Nevada, regulated U.S. jurisdictions and substantial outlaw markets — all make Tennessee the side getting far less recreational support despite the superior first-unit workload.

There is also a broad preseason price-range system supporting the Titans: favorites from -3.5 through -7 have gone 161-136-4 ATS since 2010. That is not an elite ROI system by itself, so it is supporting evidence rather than the foundation of the play. 

The market move is acceptable but worth noting. Our official outlaw line was Tennessee -2.5, and the current consensus is roughly -4.5. That is a two-point move toward Tennessee, below the three-point automatic downgrade threshold. Some books are still showing -2.5 to -3.5, which would obviously be preferable to laying 4.5. 

Why not premium at least as of now? Seattle qualifies for a conflicting rebound system: teams held below 10 points in their previous preseason game are currently on a 21-8 ATS surge. That is a strong short-term record even though the underlying unit/ROI information is not strong enough to outweigh Tennessee’s rotation advantage, public fade and overall matchup.