Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Twins over 9 -105

The wind is not going to factor at Wrigley Field tonight. But I still like the Over in the White Sox-Cubs game.

White Sox starter Luis Castillo has a 5.49 road ERA. He is an over the hill veteran whose statistics were propped up by getting to throw at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Castillo no longer has that luxury after being traded to the White Sox.

The Cubs are averaging 5.1 runs per game. That is the second highest in the majors.

The White Sox have greatly improved their offense. They are seventh in runs and fifth in homers. They are averaging 6.1 runs per game during their last 10 games.

They are a dangerous opponent for Cubs starter Shota Imanaga, a flyball pitcher with a 3.81 home ERA. 

Ricky's 1* play on COL.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Rockies are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.

- The Dodgers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.

- The Rockies are are 5-3 ATS in the last 8 head to head meetings.

Verdict: The value is on the home Underdog.

3* on White Sox

I am not here to give you action. I am here to give you winners. I am passing in all sports on Monday. But I have a FREE WINNER in the WNBA for you today.

Golden State Valkyries.

Golden State has had their way with Dallas, taking five consecutive meetings, straight up, covering four of the five matchups, which includes wins and covers in both meetings this season. This line is a little bit higher than the last two 2026 matchups. But I still feel they have what it takes to cover it. The Wings enter the matchup, struggling, dropping seven of their last 10 games both SU and ATS, including five consecutive ATS no covers as a visitor. The Valkyries are on a five-game straight up win streak, prevailing in eight of their last 10 games overall, and are playing some very strong basketball. They’re very good on their home court, and statistically, they possess the stingiest defense in the WNBA. They allow a mere, 76.9 PPG (#1) on 42.5% shooting (#2). This is where this game will be won. They are too strong defensively for a lackluster Dallas offense. Please also remember Golden State has the confidence of knowing they’ve dominated this rivalry. Take the Valkyries. Thank you.

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Braves/Twins OVER 9

The Twins have really profiled as an OVER team all season going 70-53-2 OVER in all games.  They are scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  Their lineup is as healthy as it has been all season, and the same can be said for the Braves, who are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.

Martin Perez has big home/road splits for Atlanta.  Perez is 3-2 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in eight starts and one relief appearance on the road, allowing 21 earned runs in 44 innings.  He is 1-4 with a 4.73 ERA in nine career starts against the Twins.

Bailey Ober is 7-4 with a 4.64 ERA in 18 starts for the Twins this season while allowing 51 earned runs and 17 homers in 99 innings with just 67 K's.  Ober allowed 9 earned runs in 2 innings of a 10-6 loss to the Braves in his last start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

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1* Free Pick on Wings +6

The Valkyries have been the better team over the last month.

Golden State is 9-2 in its last 10 with a +13.6 net rating, and the offense is humming at 115.7 while the defense holds opponents to 102.

Dallas sits at 5-7 with a -1.8 net rating.

On paper this looks like a laydown for the home side.

That's the opposition case, and it's the reason the number is where it is.

But the market already knows all of that.

The question is whether Golden State is worth more than a two-possession spread against a Dallas team that still runs two legitimate scorers out there.

Paige Bueckers is putting up 20.5 points in 33.4 minutes.

Arike Ogunbowale adds 14.8 more.

That's a backcourt that can generate points in a hurry against anyone, even short-handed.

Dallas plays at a 95.11 pace.

Golden State plays at 90.27.

When Dallas dictates tempo, the Valkyries turn it over.

Golden State's 17% turnover rate is a real leak against a guard-heavy team that wants to run.

Jessica Shepard is listed as expected to return, which stabilizes the frontcourt.

Golden State also has Janelle Salaun (13.1 PPG) day-to-day with a knee, which quietly evens some of the depth conversation the market is pricing in.

Six points is a lot to give a team with Bueckers and Ogunbowale healthy.

I'll take the points.

I like the Wings

Dave's Monday Free Play:

1* on Chicago Cubs -157

The Key: The Chicago White Sox are coming off a massive 3-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers over the weekend that gives them a stranglehold on the division.  They are primed for a letdown here.  The Cubs are coming off consecutive blowout losses to the Cardinals over the weekend, which will have them coming into this series hungry.  They certainly have the edge on the rubber in Game 1.  Shota Imanaga is 8-9 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 24 starts this year for the Cubs.  Luis Castillo is 4-9 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 22 games between the Mariners and White Sox.  Castillo is 2-5 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Take the Cubs.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Dodgers/Rockies OVER 10.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies should get into a slug fest tonight.  It's going to be in the 80's with light winds blowing out at the most hitter-friendly park in the majors in Coors Field.  The Dodgers should get their bats going against Tomoyuki Sugano, who has a 4.59 ERA in 21 starts this season while giving up 24 home runs.  Blake Snell is working his way back from injury making just his 3rd start of the season and will be on a pitch count.  Snell is 1-1 with a 5.96 ERA in six previous starts at Coors Field.  Sugano is 0-3 with a 9.25 ERA in three previous starts against the Dodgers.  Give me the OVER.

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1* Free Sharp Play on A's vs Royals over 9 +100

Looking at the Week 0 board this year, one number keeps staring me right in the face. TCU laying a touchdown against North Carolina over in Dublin feels like the cleanest play on the early slate.

I have been on this one for a while now. TCU has the more settled roster, especially in the trenches, and that continuity matters more than most people want to admit in Week 0. North Carolina is still sorting through a heavy overhaul in Belichick’s second season, with a new offensive coordinator trying to install a system on the fly and a pile of new bodies who have not taken meaningful snaps together yet. In college football, that gap tends to show up early, especially when both teams have to fly across the ocean for a noon kick.

Neutral-site openers have always been kind to the more physical, more experienced side. Over the last fifteen years, favorites laying between six and eight points in true neutral-site season openers have covered right around 58 percent of the time. At standard juice you only need to hit 52.4 percent to break even, so that edge is real. When you tighten the filter to games that involved long-haul or overseas travel, the favorite’s cover rate climbs closer to 61 percent and the under hits nearly 60 percent of the time. The average total in those spots has finished almost four points under the number. Jet lag is no joke, and neither is limited practice time before a transatlantic flight.

TCU has been the more consistent outfit under Sonny Dykes. His teams usually play with a clear physical identity and they do not mind grinding it out early in the season. North Carolina, meanwhile, has spent the last couple of years looking like a roster still trying to figure out who belongs where. Historical trends for ACC teams opening against Big 12 competition on neutral fields lean toward the side with better line continuity, and TCU checks that box. Favorites in this exact range that also held a clear edge up front have covered better than 60 percent since the mid-2010s. That is the kind of number that keeps the lights on if you stay disciplined.

I will take the under as a secondary piece if the total sits near 48. Early-season scoring is often suppressed when teams are still installing, traveling, and playing a little tight. Both sides prefer a physical brand of football, and that style rarely produces fireworks in the first half of a Week 0 game on foreign soil.

Hawai’i getting points at Stanford and Memphis as a small dog against UNLV are fine secondary looks if you like chasing value on the dog side. I generally leave the massive numbers alone unless the total is screaming. This TCU spot is different. It is the kind of early-season situation where the sharper side of the board usually cashes, and the travel factor only adds another layer of protection.

I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again, but this one sits right with me. Continuity, trenches, travel, and the historical numbers all point the same direction. If the line drifts a half-point either way I am still on it. Good luck if you decide to ride along.

Note: I bet this selection while was able to get -7. But it s still good at this number.

Please unless your a weekend warrior do not buy off the hook.

BUYING OFF THE HOOK 

Buying off the hook is one of those moves that feels smart in the moment and slowly bleeds you over time. I have watched plenty of sharp money and square money both fall into the same trap, and the long-term numbers do not lie. You are paying extra juice to move the line half a point or a full point so a common final margin turns into a push or a win instead of a loss. Classic example is laying the three and a half instead of the three, or taking the plus three and a half instead of the plus three. The hook disappears, your ticket looks safer, and the price quietly climbs from minus one-ten to minus one-twenty or worse.

That extra juice is the real problem. Standard minus one-ten needs you to cash about fifty-two point four percent just to break even. Jump to minus one-twenty and you need roughly fifty-four and a half percent. At minus one-thirty you are staring at fifty-six and a half percent. Those two to four extra points of required win rate add up fast across a season. The probability of a game landing exactly on the number you bought off is almost never high enough to cover the cost over hundreds of plays.

Football is where the conversation gets loudest because the key numbers actually matter. Three and seven have historically been the biggest hooks in both the NFL and college game. League-wide data over the last decade shows finals of three happening in the high teens percentage range and sevens in the low double digits. Buying off those numbers is the only spot where the math gets closer to break-even. Even then you are usually still overpaying. Outside of those true keys the half-points become pure juice leaks. Teams that routinely buy from three and a half to three or from seven and a half to seven have shown thin or negative edges once you factor in the price.

Basketball is a different animal. NBA and college totals and spreads move around half-points constantly, but the distribution of final margins is flatter. Landing exactly on a three or a four happens less often than football’s big keys, so the value of buying the half-point is even thinner. Same story in baseball with the run line. Buying from one and a half to one or two and a half to two costs you juice that the frequency of those exact margins rarely repays. Soccer worldwide, whether Premier League, La Liga, Serie A or the big South American leagues, runs mostly on Asian handicaps where the half-goal and quarter-goal moves are already priced aggressively. Buying further off the number there is usually just giving the book more of your money for protection you do not need.

I have seen the same pattern in hockey, tennis, and the rest of the major venues. The public loves the feeling of being off the hook. The long-term winners almost never make it a habit. They would rather shop for the best available number, take the standard juice, and live with the occasional hook loss. The ones who grind out profits treat buying points like a last resort, not a regular tool. Only when the price is unusually soft on a true key number does the play even enter the conversation, and those spots are rare.

The bottom line is simple. Occasional, selective buys off a real key number at a fair price can be tolerable. Making it standard operating procedure is a slow leak that compounds against you. The juice almost always costs more than the protection is worth. Stay patient, shop the numbers, and let the hooks fall where they fall. That approach has kept more bankrolls healthy than any amount of buying ever will.

Alex Smart

1% GOLD RUSH on Royals -1½

FREE PLAY on A's +175

PSP Data Driven 1* Royals.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Mason Barnett have lost 4 of his last 5 starts. oakland athletics are 2-4 in their last 6 games.