Free Sports Picks of the Day

1* Free Pick on Broncos -2½

1* Bet on Ole Miss -19½

*Free Play Over* The Houston Cougars offense ranks first in the nation in success rate. They are excellent in both the run and passing game. Weigman has been tremendous at quarterback, and Willie Fritz teams are always good at running the ball behind a strong offensive line. 

Houston is 5th in offensive line yards. Cincinnati is third in the nation in offensive line yards. Both offensive fronts have the edge in this game. 

Cincinnati's defense is easily the weakest unit on the field in this game. The Bearcats were torched by Miami (Ohio), Utah, and West Virginia in the last several weeks. 

These two defenses have been terrible in the red zone. They are 120th and 132nd in the nation in points per scoring opportunity allowed. When opposing teams get into the red zone, they are scoring touchdowns a high percentage of the time.

Take the over here.

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3* on New Mexico State

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Dallas Mavericks -7

The Dallas Mavericks have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with impressive wins over the Heat on the road, plus the Thunder and Rockets at home.  They also had a 1-point loss to the Spurs on the road.  They have taken on some of the best teams in the NBA and proven they can compete to this point.

Now I look for the Mavericks to be motivated to put on a show in the NBA Cup.  It starts with a likely blowout win over one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Utah Jazz tonight.  The Mavericks have shown they are a potent offensive team when both Flagg and Kyrie are on the court at the same time, and that will be the case tonight.  And while Dusty May is known for offense, he has gotten the most out of Dallas defensively as well.

The Jazz were a dumpster fire even when Jaren Jackson Jr. was healthy.  They have been even worse without him.  The Jazz are 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS this season with their lone win coming by a single point at home against the Pelicans.  They have rarely been competitive with five of their seven losses coming by 7 points or more.

The Jazz have looked broken offensively this season ranking 29th in offensive rating.  That is the biggest surprise with Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen on the roster.  But rookie Darryn Peterson isn't comfortable in Will Hardy's scheme as an off ball shooter when he has been used to having the ball in his hands.  Jackson Jr. was supposed to anchor the defense, and his loss is magnified with Walker Kessler gone to the Lakers.  They have no rim protection and rank 24th in defensive rating this season.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

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Friday's Free CFB Pick

PLAY ON: TCU +7 

First note the start time. It is a 9 a.m. West Coast kickoff. BYU and Utah certainly are not used to that. It is a plus for the Under.

This has been a huge rivalry and this year's game carries important ramifications being the first time these rivals have met when both are in the Top 10. It is going to be intense.

I'm expecting the defenses to get the better of it. BYU ranks in the top 25 in scoring defense, total defense and run defense. Utah gives up fewer than 16 points per game. The Utes rank 15th in scoring defense.

Both teams are run oriented and play at a slow tempo. BYU still is likely to be missing its star running back, LJ Martin.

The series history points to an Under, too, with fewer than 50 points scored in eight of the past 10 meetings.

Ricky's 1* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Over is 8-2 in the Ducks last 10 games.

- The over is 3-1 in the Flames last 4 home games.

- The Over is 4-0 in the Ducks last 4 road games.

Verdict: We should see plenty of Goals in this game.

1* Free Pick on New Mexico/Nevada: over 38

A total of 38 in a Mountain West game asks both offenses to go missing, and the numbers say that is unlikely here.

New Mexico is 7-1 through 8 games this season and averaging 35 points a game. Even over the last 5, a stretch that includes some grinders, the Lobos are putting up 33.2 a game. That one offense alone gets this total most of the way home.

I get why the number is short. New Mexico's defense has been suffocating, allowing under 12 a game, and the last three Lobos games landed on 37, 37 and 31 combined points. The market is anchored to those three scoreboards instead of the full season sample, and that is where the value sits.

Nevada is the piece that tips it. The Wolf Pack average 23 points a game this season, and at home they have shown real life: 28 on San Jose State, 33 against Air Force in a game that produced 69 total points. This is not last year's 0-7 Nevada team that scored 13.4 a game. They have UTEP and San Jose State wins where they hit 30 and 28.

So the math is simple. If New Mexico does what it has done all season and scores in the high 20s or low 30s, Nevada needs barely two scores at home to cash this ticket. Asking a 23-point-per-game home offense to find 10 to 13 points is not asking much.

Give me the Over 38 at -108 in New Mexico at Nevada.

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Boston College +6.5

The Key: The Florida State Seminoles have fired head coach Norvell and are now going to be without their best playmaker in WR Duce Robinson (24 receptions, 438 yards, 4 TD) the rest of the way.  They are also without RB Osumane Kromah (609 yards, 5 TD).  They should not be favored by nearly a TD on the road against Boston College this week.  The Eagles are getting no love off their blowout loss at Duke last week.  But it's easy to forgive that loss when you look what they did prior, going 4-0 ATS in their previous 4 games taking VT and SMU to the wire, while also upsetting both Pitt and Georgia Tech.  Take Boston College.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Purdue -5.5

Purdue takes a big step down in class here off consecutive losses to Washington and Penn State with a bye in between.  They beat both Illinois and Minnesota in the two games prior by 7 and 28 points, respectively, and now they face their easiest Big Ten opponent of the season in Maryland.  The Terrapins look like they have quit amidst the firing of their head coach.  They are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games with blowout losses to UCLA by 51, Nebraska by 25 and Ohio State by 29.  They were also upset at home by Rutgers.  Last week they were outgained by 119 yards by Illinois at home.  If they were ever going to show up it was going to be that game off a bye and with an interim coach.  I could see them going into the tank the rest of the way.  I trust Purdue to show up with Barry Odom and a bowl game within reach.  Give me Purdue.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Northern Colorado vs Arizona State over 147 -110

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #366 Arizona State Sun Devils over Colorado Buffaloes (7:30 p.m., Saturday, November 7 | ESPN2)

Colorado snapped a five-game losing streak with its first conference victory of the season over Kansas State last time out. That result helps keep this line reasonable and creates value with Arizona State at home.

The Buffaloes were competitive in only one game during that five-game skid, and this looks like a good opportunity for the Sun Devils to bounce back. Arizona State remains in the hunt for a bowl berth and has alternated wins and losses all season. Coming off a loss to BYU, I expect the Sun Devils to respond with a strong performance and win by double digits.

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Illinois.

At first glance, I felt Nebraska should be in a good situation here to bounce back following three consecutive straight up losses. I mean, they do own a pretty good defense. But then after looking deeper, their offense has sputtered significantly over the last three or four weeks. And, I don’t feel confident laying wood on the road with the Cornhuskers. It definitely makes me raise an eyebrow. Meanwhile, Illinois comes off three consecutive victories, covering their last two outings, and playing with momentum. Please understand the Fighting Illini have taken four of the last five meetings in this rivalry, covering five of the last six overall matchups. There is no question that statistically speaking, Nebraska owns better numbers on paper on both sides of the line of scrimmage. But college football isn’t played on paper. College football is played on the gridiron, and to give a very scrappy Illinois team points at home is a mistake. Take the Fighting Illini. Thank you.

Air Force +3.5

Air Force and Army meet on Saturday and we're backing Air Force with the points. These are two teams with very similar styles of offense which should provide a game that is tightly played. Air Force has been flying under the radar a bit as they sit at 6-2 while coming off a win over UConn where they scored 35 points. This offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging nearly 30 ppg and they're doing it with the ground attack. They rushed for 366 yards last week and this is going to be a game where they give Army a taste of what they do to other teams. This will be a game won at the line of scrimmage and both teams will run downhill right at each other. Army's defense has had some issues and this game will stay close throughout. Grab the points. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on AIR FORCE ATS. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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Temple and Navy meet Saturday at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium with the total sitting at 54.5, and the number leaves more room on the under than the recent scoring profiles of both systems usually justify. Both teams enter at 2-6. Temple’s offense has struggled to sustain drives, averaging just over 23 points per game while its defense has held opponents under 27. Navy’s option-based attack can move the chains and control the clock, but the Midshipmen have managed only modest scoring output against quality defenses and just put up 13 points in a loss to Notre Dame. When two teams with limited explosive play and average efficiency meet in a conference game, the combined output more often lands in the mid-to-high 40s than the mid-50s.

The player matchups reinforce the same picture without requiring a high-scoring affair. Navy’s quarterback and fullback tandem generate steady yards on the ground and force defenses to stay disciplined in the box, yet the Midshipmen have not shown consistent big-play ability through the air this season. Temple’s primary runners and receivers have produced modest yardage totals in recent outings, with the Owls managing only nine points in their last game against East Carolina. Neither side’s skill players have generated the kind of explosive plays that routinely push totals well above 50 when the opposing defense is even moderately competent. When the featured options on both sides are more methodical than dynamic, the scoring tends to stay compressed.

Recent results and longer-term patterns point the same direction. Navy has seen the under hit in several of its more controlled home games this season, while Temple’s road contests against AAC opponents have frequently stayed under the number when the Owls’ offense fails to find rhythm. Historical meetings between these two have often stayed in lower-scoring ranges relative to the posted total, especially when Navy’s option scheme shortens the game and limits possessions. League-wide, mid-major conference games involving two teams ranked outside the top 100 in scoring efficiency have gone under at a higher rate in November when the total sits in the mid-50s and neither side ranks among the league leaders in explosive play rate. The combination of Navy’s clock-control style, Temple’s recent offensive struggles, and the compressed recent scoring profiles is what makes the under the cleaner side of the number. Both teams can move the ball for stretches, but the posted total simply asks for more points than the systems, the individual matchups, and the recent trends have typically delivered

My selection is on Anaheim over Calgary at 8:05 pm et on Friday.

I think a lot of bettors may be tempted to back the Flames as a short favorite as they catch the Ducks in an obvious letdown situation off last night's 5-4 'upset' win in Edmonton and riding a three-game winning streak. It may take some time for the betting marketplace to re-adjust after the Flames recent surge that saw them win seven of their last 11 games. I still think Calgary is one of the league's weakest teams and it's in a tough spot here as well as it returns home on just one day of rest following a three-game road trip that culminated with an overtime loss in Seattle on Wednesday. The Ducks surely haven't forgotten a 4-2 'upset' loss at home against Calgary in the most recent meeting between these two teams on October 13th. Take Anaheim (8*).

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FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 11/6:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Friday is with the Toronto Raptors minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks. Toronto (4-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 128-109 loss in Denver as a 5.5-point underdog against the Nuggets on Wednesday. The Raptors stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games against teams with a losing record. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Milwaukee (1-7) has lost four games in a row after their 109-102 loss at Boston as a 12.5-point underdog against the Celtics on Wednesday. The Bucks return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in November. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Toronto minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer bounces back from going winless with his two NFL plays last night. Frank is on a 13 of 21 (62%) NBA run after CA$HING his 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month on Wednesday with the Dallas-San Antonio Under — and now he has tonight’s 76ers-Cavaliers’ ATS winner on Amazon Prime at 7:40 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank! 

1% GOLD RUSH on Oregon/Ohio State: under 46½

PSP Data Driven 1* Under.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Under. The Under is 6-4 in the Grizzlies last 10 games. The Under is 7-3 in the Thunder last 10 games.

This game just doesn't feel the same this year, as both teams have not played well. Michigan still has an elite defense, and as stagnant as their offense has been, they should be able to score against the MSU defense. MSU has been blown out in games, and they will not score enough to cover the number.

Play on Michigan