Free Sports Picks of the Day

1* Free Pick on Texans/Jaguars under 42½

3* on Eagles

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Saints PK

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our Sunday Free Play. This is a prime letdown spot for Buffalo as it is coming off a huge overtime win over the Rams on Monday so the Bills also have the rest disadvantage. This is the second straight game out west and they stayed out there as opposed coming back home and that is not necessarily an advantage, especially with the surroundings. We all know Buffalo is the better team and it has outgained every opponent in yppl and that is due to the offense that is outperforming its defense, the latter being one of the worst in the league. The Bills are No. 30 in both EPA/Play and Success Rate and they face an offense led by Kirk Cousins that has had a lot of success this season, sitting No. 5 in the league in Dropback Success Rate. The Raiders are in the opposite spot as they following up a tough loss in Kansas City with a blowout loss at New England last week. Road teams coming off OT, on short rest, are just 33% SU and 40% ATS since 2000. Here we play against road teams after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 2022. Play (280) Las Vegas Raiders

Fargo is 23-9-3 ATS in the NFL this season following a 5-2-1 record in Week Five and the Profits continue here! Over the last Five Regular Seasons, he is 270-224-13 (54 percent) and brought home +$23,500 and this is only a small sample of how the NFL has been going back! Over the last 14 seasons, Matt has profited in 10 of those, bringing home a MASSIVE $80,030 in profits! He has FOUR Premium Winners for Sunday with Monday night to follow.

1* Free Pick on Chargers/Chiefs: under 41½

This total is built on two offenses with real problems, and the Chargers' issues are the bigger ones.

Los Angeles has lost 5 straight to open the season and is scoring just 16.8 points a game.

Justin Herbert threw for only 121 yards against Denver last week and has turned it over 9 times already, 7 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles.

The protection isn't getting fixed Sunday.

Left tackle Joe Alt is out, guard Kayode Awosika is out, and Tre' Harris is done for the week at receiver.

Herbert won't have time to look downfield against Chris Jones and this Kansas City front.

The Chiefs' side of the total isn't clean either.

Rashee Rice is out with a hamstring and Tyquan Thornton is on injured reserve after ankle surgery.

That leaves Xavier Worthy and a group of rookies at receiver.

Travis Kelce has been held to 2 catches in back-to-back games.

So Kansas City will lean on the ground game, and they should.

Kenneth Walker just went for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries against the Raiders and has 537 rushing yards through 4 games.

A run-first Chiefs offense bleeds clock, and that keeps possessions down for both sides.

Fewer possessions, a broken Chargers passing game, and a thin Kansas City receiver room.

That's the formula for a low-scoring divisional game.

I like the Under

1* FREE INFO PLAY Hapoel Beer Sheva -290

Sunday card has our TOP Red Zone Play in late Afternoon and the 2X PERFECT AFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR Going early. There is also a TOP play in Sunday night Football and A.L.C.S Game 5. Comp play below

The Sunday Comp play in the NFL is on the Las Vegas Raiders plus the points. The Raiders look to bounce back from last weeks blowout loss and they catch the Bills off a massive upset win over the Rams on Monday night football. Rob notes that road favorites off a road dog win that has more than 220 yards rushing are 1-5 straight up and 0-6 to the spread on Sundays since 1993. In fact week 6 home dogs that opened 3-0 and are off back to back losses are perfect long term vs a team off a win. Look for Vegas to hang around for a cover here. GL Rob V-

Houston Texans +2.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars (London, Wembley, 9:30 AM ET)

The number is Jaguars -2.5, total 42.5. Jacksonville is 4-1 and just beat Philadelphia 19-17 in London. Houston is 1-4 and coming off a 26-3 win over Tennessee. The spread opened around 3 and has been bet down to 2.5. A short favorite on a neutral site against a division rival is not a number that needs to be laid. The points are the side.

These two have met 48 times. Houston leads the all-time series 32-16 straight up. Against the spread the picture is tighter but still leans Houston’s way: the Texans are 27-20-1 ATS in the series while Jacksonville is 20-27-1. In the last 10 meetings the Jaguars are 5-5 ATS. Underdogs in this series have been the better side historically, covering at a 29-18-1 clip. Short numbers between these clubs have not been free money for the favorite.

Jacksonville has been the better ATS team this season, but Houston’s defense has been the cleaner side of the ball in the losses. Both teams score in the low-to-mid 20s. A 42.5 in a London morning kickoff does not need to be a shootout. The market has already moved the side toward the visitor. That is the tell.

Bet the short underdog of 3 or fewer points in a neutral-site divisional game.
Underdogs of 3 or fewer points in neutral-site divisional games (since the early 1980s): 27-15 ATS (64.3%). At -110, 27 wins and 15 losses is +10.8 unit$, ROI=25.7%. Houston is getting 2.5. Both teams are AFC South. London is the filter. That is the window.

Bet the underdog of a field goal or less when the favorite is coming off a one-score win.
Underdogs of 3.5 or fewer points when the favorite’s previous game was decided by one score (last 35 years): 41-28 ATS (59.4%). At -110, that is +11.7 unit$, ROI=17.0%. Jacksonville’s last game was 19-17. The short week and the travel are the same for both sides. The points are the argument.

Bet the underdog in this series when the number is 3 or fewer.
Houston as a short underdog of 3 or fewer points against Jacksonville (last 10 seasons): 6-3 ATS (66.7%). At -110, that is +2.7 unit$, ROI=30.0%. The last decade has not been a free ride for Jacksonville laying a short number. The points have been the better side more often than the chalk.

Shop 2.5 or better. If it drops to 2, the edge shrinks. Confirm the starters. A London number and a domestic number are not the same bet if the travel hits one side harder. The house does not care that one club is 4-1.

My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Houston at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

I can't help but feel the Jaguars feel like they took a loss in last week's ugly and improbable 19-17 win over the Eagles in London. Jacksonville simply couldn't get anything going offensively in that game as the Eagles sold out on defense to try to hide an injury-riddled offense in that ugly affair. I expect a return to 'normal' from the Jags this week as they stay in London to take on a familiar opponent in the division rival Texans. Houston is not off to the start it hoped for but did deliver a blowout win over the hapless Titans last Sunday. Even in that game it managed only 5.4 yards per play. While the Texans defense is certainly better than it showed in the early going this season, I expect it to have its hands full with a multi-pronged Jags offense on Sunday. Take Jacksonville (8*).

1% GOLD RUSH on Eagles +3

For one of my top free picks here on Sunday in the NFL I am looking at the NY Jets at the New England Patriots. Jets no respect being given to this team despite a big win at home over the Cleveland Browns this defense for the Jets is the real deal as they come in ranked 6th in the league in total defense right their with the Patriots also at 6. No argument that the Pats are the better team here but winning and covering are a different animal. Pats have won and covered 3 straight head to head and are 4-1 ATS last 5. I think this price is a tad high look for a 4 point win for New England. 

Play on the NY Jets plus the points rotation #263

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