Free Sports Picks of the Day

1* Free Pick on Hawaii -4½

Free Play – Take #767 Michigan -145 ML over Duke (6:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Feb. 21)

A neutral-court, non-conference game between Duke and Michigan sounded like a big deal when it was announced during the offseason. Now it might be even bigger than anticipated. The third-ranked Blue Devils and No. 1 Wolverines will jockey for position atop the AP Top 25 poll when they clash Saturday evening in the Capital Showcase in Washington, D.C. Although I think Duke is among the few top teams in the country, like Arizona (when healthy) and Florida, Michigan can beat you in so many different ways, with their versatility the key. I’m not going to mess around with the point spread in case this game plays out as tight as expected and back the Wolverines on the ML.

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NBA Free Pick – Joe Duffy

This is a fully corroborated global contrarian position. Our betting indexes span offshore markets, Las Vegas, every regulated U.S. jurisdiction, and trusted underground intel sources. Across the board, this sets up as a strong fade-the-public opportunity.

Now layer in the analytics.

Luck Factor Analysis

“Luck Factor” isolates variance-driven outcomes by comparing actual wins to analytically projected wins based on efficiency metrics and play-by-play modeling. It strips out noise — turnovers luck, late-game randomness, shooting variance — to identify regression candidates.

Philadelphia is +1.8 wins above expectation.
New Orleans is –3.6 wins below expectation.

That creates a 5.4-game Luck Gap — a substantial differential signaling the underdog is materially undervalued and positioned for positive regression.

Add the situational overlay:

Teams angry off a loss versus opponents coming off an emotionally draining game with 8+ lead changes are 1116-892-31 ATS. That is a long-term, database-backed edge.

Everything aligns:

Recommendation: PELICANS +4

The larger picture reinforces the process.

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Recommended Bet: San Jose -110

The Sooners will not only be looking for a win but to pay better after losing by double digits against Tennessee. Oklahoma is 2-1 in its last three games, scoring 186 points in those two wins. Oklahoma lost the first meeting between the two as A&M forced 15 turnovers and dominated in the paint. This is a perfect revenge spot for Oklahoma, but I will take the Aggies to win again.A&M

Play on Texas A&M to -1. This is a free play.

PSP Data Driven 1* CS Sacramento.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. Sacramento State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home. Idaho is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games against an opponent in the Big Sky conference.

Free Play from Doc’s Sports in MLS. Take LA Galaxy over NYCFC (7 p.m. EST, Sunday, February 22) Last year the Galaxy were fresh of their MLS Cup win and expectations were high, but they got off to a historically bad start, winless in their first 16 games, and the season was over before it started. A lot of this had to do with injuries, especially to Ricard Puig, the Galaxy’s best player. He was really central to a lot of what the Galaxy wanted to do, and his absence created lots of problems for the side. Puig had offseason surgery, and is out again for the season, but the Galaxy have solidified the team in his absence. Young players got a lot of experience last season when they might have not otherwise had the opportunity, and they made some nice signings in the offseason. Last season is a thing of the past, and this team is back to where it wants to be as a Cup contender and a very likely playoff side at the very least. They are underrated by the oddsmakers to start the season, and we will take advantage of the value here with this plus-money line. The Galaxy have won the last two meetings at home vs NYCFC, and we see this one as a low scoring match but we think the Galaxy will find a way to win. There hasn’t been a draw in seven meetings and we don’t envision one here. After last season, we think there will be an emphasis on a strong start, and home pitch will propel the Galaxy to three points. 

(#24309) Dan Ige | ML | . 

Dan Ige might be a large underdog for this evening's UFC card against Melquizael Costa. But, don't underestimate the Hawaiian fighter. He's much more experienced inside of the octagon, fighting some of the best fighters inside the Featherweight Division over the years. Even though he hasn't found much success recently, Ige has seen everything and will be fully prepared for this fight against an up and coming sensation. 

Melquizael Costa made his UFC debut back in 2023. He started his journey with a couple of losses in three fights, but has since turned the switch and is on a five fight win streak. But, Costa's wins don't come against very known fighters and he's already been beaten by some of the bigger names. Ige's relentlessness and ability to stay in front of fighters is going to be key. Costa's availability has been excellent, but his activity having fought so many times could come back to cost him with not too many breaks. I'll take a shot on the dog. 

Burns' Prediction: Ige via. U-DEC.

1* Bet on Utah State -4½

1* Free Play on Grizzlies +10½ -110

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: UC-San Diego +4.5

I love the spot for UC-San Diego tonight.  The Tritons have had the last week off last playing on Saturday.  They will be rested and out for revenge from a 61-59 home loss to UC-Irvine as 2.5-point favorites.

Now the Tritons are catching 4.5 points on the road in the rematch, a 7-point adjustment for flipping home courts.  Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series with the road team going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings over the last two seasons.

Not to mention, UC-Irvine is a much more tired team coming into this one.  The Anteaters just played on Thursday and beat Long Beach State 69-58 on the road.  They benefited from the Beach shooting just 2-of-18 (11.1%) from 3-point range.  

With only one day of rest and preparation for the Anteaters compared to six days for the Tritons, this line should be much closer to PK.  Bet UC-San Diego Saturday.

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1* Free Pick on DePaul -125

DePaul is finally a program to respect again in the Big East. They have turned Wintrust Arena into a genuine fortress this season.

The Blue Demons enter this matchup having won four of their last five games at home. They aren't just winning; they are dominating the glass.

DePaul currently ranks near the top of the conference in offensive rebounding percentage. They should feast on second-chance opportunities tonight against a smaller Friars lineup.

Providence is heading in the opposite direction when they travel. The Friars have struggled to find any consistent rhythm outside of Rhode Island.

They are just 2-7 straight up in their last nine road contests. Their effective field goal percentage takes a massive dip when they leave their home floor.

The Friars are also coming off a physical, emotional win over Villanova this past Wednesday. This is a classic letdown spot for a team that just emptied the tank.

DePaul’s backcourt is playing its best basketball of the season right now. They have cut their turnover rate down significantly over the last two weeks.

Providence relies heavily on forcing mistakes to get their transition game moving. If DePaul takes care of the ball, the Friars do not have the half-court offense to keep pace.

The Blue Demons are fully healthy and have had extra time to prep for this specific defensive scheme. That rest advantage will be obvious in the final ten minutes.

Expect DePaul to control the tempo and win the battle in the paint. The price is low because of the names on the jerseys, not the current form of these two teams.

Bet DePaul ML (-125).

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Pistons/Bulls OVER 233

The Chicago Bulls are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They play fast, play no defense and are loaded with playmakers at the guard position with very little rim protection defensively.  The Pistons are missing some of their rim protection with Isaiah Stewart suspended.  Detroit has gone more small ball with these suspensions and they beat the Knicks 126-111 to sail OVER the total last time out.  The Knicks shot just 22.9% from 3 in that contest as well.  The Bulls should be more efficient and keep up with the Pistons in a shootout.  Give me the OVER.

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1* Free Sharp Play on FC Dallas +124

Saturday afternoon is the Release of the 7* College Hoops Game of he Year backed with a Tremendous Undefeated long term System. We also have a 100% NBA Totals System. Comp play below

The College hoops comp play is on Depaul. Game 780 at 8 eastern. The Demons are a small favorite here but have 18 point road loss revenge on a Providence team that is 1-7 on the road. Depaul has bounced back from that loss with a pair of solid wins over Seton Hall and Creighton. The Demons fit a nice revenge system that plays on conference home favorites of 3 or less that have road dog loss revenge and are off a road dog win and prior home dog win if they allowed less than 65 points. Look for Depaul to get the win. GL Rob V-

1* Free Pick on Uros Medic +185

Capping the night in the main event around 10:30 PM Eastern Standard Time, Anthony Hernandez emerges as the -240 favorite against Sean Strickland, with the by-decision prop at +125 providing an intriguing angle that plays into Hernandez's wrestling dominance and cardio edge over five rounds. Hernandez averages 6.46 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy, coupled with 1.8 submission attempts in the same span, allowing him to control fights on the mat while landing 4.59 significant strikes per minute at 62% efficiency, and he's on an eight-fight win streak that includes grinding out decisions against durable opponents. Strickland, despite his high-volume striking at 5.95 per minute, absorbs 4.57 strikes with a 60% defense and has gone 1-2 in his last three, including a unanimous decision loss in a rematch, highlighting a trend where volume boxers like him struggle against elite grapplers, with such matchups going the distance in 58% of instances when the wrestler maintains top control without a finish. Hernandez's 68% takedown defense further neutralizes Strickland's modest 0.73 takedowns per 15 minutes, tilting the scales toward a judges' verdict in a bout that rewards bettors fading the former champion's durability against relentless pressure.

Hernandez to win / plus prop- contest goes to a decision

Saturday CBB Free play. My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Utah State at 10 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Nevada as a home underdog on Saturday night. Utah State hasn't lost since January 20th and has had a couple of days to pat itself on the back after delivering a perfect 3-0 homestand the culminated with a blowout win over a good Boise State team on Wednesday. While the Aggies do own the better overall record in this matchup this season, Nevada has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. The Wolf Pack have had a few days to stew over a fruitless 0-2 road trip including an 'upset' loss at San Jose State on Tuesday. Here, they'll be looking to avenge an earlier nine-point loss but ATS cover against Utah State. I do think there's a glimmer of hope for Nevada as Utah State continues to afford its opposition plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 60+ field goal attempts to its foes in three of its last four contests. The Aggies have been red hot offensively but I think they're in for some regression here, noting that Nevada hasn't allowed an opponent to break 60 field goal attempts since January 20th against UNLV. The Wolf Pack have held seven of their last 10 foes to 24 or fewer made field goals. Take Nevada.

Our selection is on the Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders / McNeese State Cowboys game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 8:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Texas A&M Corpus is the big underdog, but plays really good defense. It should help keep this game lower scoring.

The Islanders have seen the total stay UNDER in 10 of their L13 games played against the Cowboys.

McNeese State also plays terrific on the defensive side -- has allowed less than 70 points in nine games in a row.

The Cowboys allowed 53 points in the first game this season between these two teams too.

The UNDER is 6-3 over their L9 games this year.

The play is the UNDER.

AAA Sports

For my best free pick on the board for Saturday in college Basketball I am looking at a late game of Iowa State at the BYU Cougars. Listen national championship hopes for BYU are finished but that does not mean this team is just going to lay down and die. We should see a ton of bettors backing the road team here at this number a road team that is smoking hot and they have covered 6 of their last 8 games. Iowa State monster wins over Kansas and Houston should further spur on the bettors to Iowa State. BYU has been one of the worst cover teams in college basketball this season but thats what I like I like buying low on a team. BYU 2-8 last 10 ATS but always a tough team to beat in Provo. 

Play on BYU plus the points rotation #820

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