Free Sports Picks of the Day

1* Bet on Jacksonville State -3

1* Free Play on Wizards +10½ -115

[1%] Free Play on Avalanche under 6½ -125

3* on under

1* Free Pick on Panthers/Packers under 48

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Nuggets/Pelicans OVER 240.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are really an OVER team this season.  They rank 8th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating thus far while also ranking 5th in pace.  They have gone 3-0 OVER in their first three games this season.

The Pelicans have had no problem putting up points with all their offensive talent, but getting stops is the issue which is why they are 0-3 on the season.  They lost 123-120 to Indiana, 120-119 to Utah and 141-135 (OT) to Denver in a game that saw 252 combined points at the end of regulation.

Now the Pelicans get their shot at revenge on the Nuggets tonight and it should be another high-scoring affair.  The Nuggets will always have one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA with Jokic and Murray running the show.  But they have fallen off a cliff defensively this season.

The Nuggets rank 26th in defensive rating this season.  They just allowed 134 points to the Warriors, who aren't an elite offensive team this season.  That came after allowing 126 points to the Pelicans at the end of regulation.  

Neither team shot the ball well from 3 with the Pelicans hitting 28.9% and the Nuggets 31.9%, so the 252 combined points at the end of regulation wasn't aided by lights out shooting.  That's why I'm confident in a repeat shootout tonight and another OVER.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series.  The Nuggets and Pelicans have combined for at least 238 points in six of their last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

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New Mexico State offers an attractive home-underdog opportunity, particularly because of its improving rushing attack and Jacksonville State's vulnerabilities against the run.

The Aggies' James Jones has rushed for 777 yards, averaging 111 per game. Against Sam Houston last week, he exploded for 178 yards on 27 carries. He has averaged 140.7 rushing yards over three Conference USA games.

Jacksonville State has allowed approximately 4.7 yards per designed rushing attempt, with opponents achieving a 44.1% rushing success rate. Linebacker Jameson McCollough has a reported 40.8 run-defense grade, while Marvin Stringfellow has been credited with 13 missed tackles.

Jones' patient running style and New Mexico State's inside-zone concepts create opportunities to exploit those weaknesses.

New Mexico State's defense is also improving. The Aggies held Sam Houston to just 11 rushing yards and nine first downs in last week's 30-24 victory. A blocked-punt touchdown against them made the final score closer than their defensive performance suggested.

Our preliminary independent fair-line benchmark makes Jacksonville State approximately a two-point favorite, compared with the supplied market spread of 3.5. That creates a modest 1.5-point theoretical advantage for the home underdog.

Jacksonville State has additional concerns involving receiving depth, although several reported injuries still require final confirmation.

New Mexico State must protect the football against an aggressive blitzing defense, but its ground game and recent defensive improvement give it a realistic opportunity to remain within the number.

FREE PLAY — NEW MEXICO STATE +3.5

The +3.5 remains listed at FanDuel at -115 in today's published odds. New Mexico State +3 is also available elsewhere, but the extra half-point is particularly valuable around the key number of three.

One additional caution: recent analysis identifies New Mexico State's inconsistent play-calling and Adam Damante's poor passing efficiency as material risks. Those concerns reinforce keeping this a free play rather than upgrading it to premium status.

Wednesday's Free NBA Pick

PLAY ON: Clippers +4.5

1* Free Pick on Wizards +10½ -115

1* NBA - 76ers/Pacers FREE PICK on Pacers +5.5

1* Free Pick on Packers -3½

The Panthers travel to Green Bay on three days' rest, and the line hasn't caught up to how banged up they are.

Carolina just got run off its own field, 43-13 to Tampa Bay.

Panthers quarterback Bryce Young posted a season-low passing yardage total, completed under 52 percent of his throws for the second straight game, and tossed two picks that led to 10 Tampa Bay points.

Now the injuries.

Right tackle Taylor Moton fractured his fibula Sunday and is done for the year.

Monroe Freeling steps in cold, and guards Damien Lewis and Torricelli Simpkins are both questionable.

That's a patchwork line protecting a struggling quarterback on a short week.

The secondary is in worse shape.

Corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are both on injured reserve, and fill-in starter Akayleb Evans is questionable.

Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips is trying to come back from a hamstring that already cost him a game.

Green Bay's defense is playing well, allowing just 17.8 points per game over its last 5.

At Lambeau the last two times out, the Packers beat Dallas 23-13 and buried Chicago 31-7.

The offense gets a boost too.

Josh Jacobs is back in the backfield, and Packers quarterback Jordan Love has thrown a touchdown in all 7 games this season.

He draws a Carolina team giving up 27.67 points per game.

Short week, road trip, depleted roster on both sides of the ball, against a rested-enough home team off a 3-point loss.

Lay the points.

I like the Packers

Dave's Wednesday Free Play:

1* on Warriors/Timberwolves OVER 227.5

The Key: This total has been adjusted down too much for the Anthony Edwards injury.  The Timberwolves are still going to be a great offensive team with LaMelo Ball running the show and they will likely play even faster now without Edwards.  They will miss his defense, though.  The Warriors have proven to be capable offensively this season with Curry and potential rookie of the year Lendeborg.  They just went for 251 combined points with the Suns and 248 with the Nuggets in their last 2 contests.  The Timberwolves went for 237 combined points with the Heat and 252 with the Cavs.  Take the OVER.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Toronto FC -101

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Atlanta Hawks -2

The Atlanta Hawks are one of the most balanced teams in the NBA this season as their top seven of Johnson, Alexander-Walker, McCollum, Wiggins, Daniels, Okongwu and Dort is about as good as it gets.  They beat the Magic and Hornets on the road before consecutive competitive losses to the Rockets both home and away.  Now they take a big step down in competition here against the Miami Heat, who are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS with blowout home losses to the Timberwolves by 25 and the Pistons by 17.  They even lost to the short-handed Hornets on the road, the same Hornets team the Hawks beat by 47 on the road.  And they came back with a home loss to the Mavs as 7.5-point favorites.  This is a old, poor Miami roster that is relying on aging veterans in Giannis, Portis, Thompson, Wiggins and Hardaway Jr.  It's going to take some time for Giannis and Adebayo to figure out how to play together.  They don't have a lot of shooting surrounding these guys which is a major issue.  And they are old and slow defensively.  Give me the Hawks.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Middle Tennessee State -2½ -110

Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take #135 Illinois Fighting Illini over Maryland Terrapins (12 p.m., Saturday, October 31 FS1). I don’t expect Maryland to get much of a spark after firing Mike Locksley. With the remaining staff facing uncertain futures in College Park, keeping this team focused could be a challenge. Illinois still has a bowl berth within reach, and this matchup represents one of its best remaining opportunities to pick up a win. The Illini have won the last two meetings with Maryland, taking last year’s matchup 24-6 after a 27-24 road victory in 2023. Bret Bielema brings the experience to keep Illinois moving forward, and his team has won two straight against opponents stronger than the Maryland squad it faces today. Take the Fighting Illini. Don’t miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Card, featuring top plays in the NHL, NBA, UFC, and Breeders’ Cup. Sign up now and put 55 years of handicapping experience to work for you!

The case for the over starts with two offenses that can score in bunches against defenses that are giving up points early. Atlanta is 2-2 and was averaging 130 points per game early in the season, second in the league in true shooting percentage with a top-six assist-to-turnover ratio, so this is a team moving the ball and finishing possessions. Miami is 0-4 and desperate, but the Heat are not playing slow - they lead the NBA in transition frequency at 28.3% of possessions, well ahead of second place, even if they rank last in points per possession in transition, which means more possessions and more chances for the score to climb.

The defensive numbers point the same way. Miami has a defensive rating of 118.8, ranking 24th, and has already surrendered 131 points to Minnesota and 128 to Detroit, while Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, including a 29-point triple-double against Dallas, with Bam Adebayo anchoring the supporting cast. Last season's trends support the shootout angle as well: 41 Hawks games went over and 48 of 82 Heat games went over, and recent meetings between these Southeast rivals have produced 127-115 and 143-117 finals. With Atlanta at home, Miami pushing pace to break its losing streak, and both teams capable of getting into the 120s, 239.5 is a number this matchup can clear without either team needing a perfect shooting night.

Jim's Play: 541. HEAT /HAWKS OVER 

OVER 6.5

Six and a half runs is a low bar for two offenses with enough firepower to put up crooked numbers. Milwaukee averaged better than 5 runs per game during the regular season and just hung 10 on Tampa Bay in Game 3. The Rays have Junior Caminero's power and a contact-heavy lineup that managed four hits in five innings against Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1. The bigger angle is the pitching situation. Both clubs needed 12 innings Tuesday, with Milwaukee burning through seven pitchers and Tampa Bay still sorting out its Game 5 starter. That creates opportunities for runs once the bullpens get involved. We don't need another 10-run explosion from either side. A couple of productive innings can get this total home. I'm taking the OVER. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER 6.5. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Wednesday FREE MLB O/U Play

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My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

I think 'over' bettors are taking quite a leap of faith with these two teams considering the total sits in the high-230's (at the time of writing). The 76ers got off to a red hot start but were cooled by the Pistons last time out, dropping a 106-93 decision at home. Of note, they've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in all four games this season. On the flip side, they've yielded more than 39 made field goals just once. Even in Sunday's loss they limited the Pistons to 38-of-87 from the field. The Pacers have been a mixed bag in the early going. I have seen positives from them defensively, however, as they've held three of four opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. Unlike previous editions of this team, they've also had some success limiting their opponents' pace, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in three of four contests to date while getting off more than 90 themselves only once. Take the under (8*).

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izards vs Cavaliers NBA Free Pick

**7-1 FREE PICK RUN**

The Angle(s): This is a tough scheduling spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are on the second night of a back-to-back after needing overtime to beat Minnesota on Tuesday. Cleveland has also shown a habit of letting games slip, blowing a 24-point halftime lead in Philadelphia last week, and they covered just seven of 27 games (24%) as a favorite of nine points or more last season. 

The Washington Wizards are a completely different team than the one that finished at the bottom of the league last season. Trae Young and Anthony Davis have given them a legitimate one-two punch, with wins over Milwaukee and Chicago behind 128 and 124 points. With fresher legs and the offense to keep pace, I like Washington to stay within the number.

The Bet: Wizards ATS (3%). 

Bad start to the week (1-5), but a 4% Thunder/Mavs NBA TOP PLAY of the Day tests a 40-23 (63%) with top-rated NBA sides! Three picks in total (2 NBA, 1 MLB). Grab an all-sports subscription and join the inevitable bounce back!

Ricky's 1* play on MIL.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 games.

- The Rays are 1-3 in their last 4 games.

- The Brewers are 5-1 in the last 6 head to head meetings.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

1% GOLD RUSH on Panthers +4

PSP Data Driven 1* Under.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Under. The Under is 5-3 in Middle Tennessee State last 8 games. The Under is 8-2 in Kennesaw State last 10 games.