Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Orioles under 8½ +100

1* Free Pick on Patriots +3

Ricky's 1* play on TOR.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10 games.

- The Blue Jays are 7-3 in the last 10 head to head meetings.

- Jose Soriano is 4-1 in his last 5 starts for the Blue Jays.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

(#906) San Diego Padres | ML | . 

Riley Cornelio (2-2, 5.96 ERA) vs. Casey Mize (5-9, 3.64 ERA) . 

Washington is on the verge of officially being eliminated from the postseason while the Padres remain in the push to get that final spot. Every single game is so important at the moment for San Diego & Casey Mize returns home where he's been excellent with a 2.98 ERA this season. Looking at his opponent, Riley Cornelio is making his first career start. I believe that he's going to struggle here considering how he's pitched out of the pen this season. I'm all over SDP at this price. 

Burns' Prediction: 7-3 Padres.

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Houston Astros +124

I like the spot for the Houston Astros tonight.  They had Monday off while the Philadelphia Phillies were completing their 4-game series with the rival Atlanta Braves yesterday.  The Phillies now have a pretty taxed bullpen after four straight tight games with the Braves in what was their most important series of the season.  This has letdown written all over it tonight.

The Astros have the advantage on the mound tonight and should not be underdogs as a result.  Hayden Wesneski is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in seven starts for the Astros this season, allowing just 14 earned runs and 2 homers in 39 2/3 innings.  He has been dominant in his last three starts, allowing just one earned run in 17 innings for a 0.53 ERA during this stretch.

Andrew Painter is the weakest link in this Philadelphia rotation.  He is 3-8 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 19 starts and two relief appearances this season.  Painter is 2-5 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at home, allowing 31 earned runs and 8 homers in 48 innings.  Houston is 4-0 in its last four meetings with Philadelphia.  Bet the Astros Tuesday.

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Free Play on Mets +104

The Angels have one of the day’s strongest regression cases. Los Angeles is rated -9.94 in Luck versus Boston at +0.10, a massive 10.04-game Luck Gap toward the Angels.

The price has also improved dramatically. The Angels were around +114 on our official outlaw line and have drifted into the +130s. Rather than follow that move toward Boston, we’re getting roughly 20 cents of additional value on Los Angeles.

The posted pitcher report is a major reason this remains bettable despite the Angels’ poor overall record. Reid Detmers has been exceptional recently: 1.50 ERA over his last five starts, averaging six innings while allowing only 1.0 earned run per start. He has surrendered zero or one earned run in four of those five outings.

Boston starter Jhostyn Bennett entered with a 3.34 ERA, so this isn’t about fading a weak pitcher. It’s about getting a large underdog with a very strong current starter, a double-digit regression advantage and a substantially better price than the opener.

Bet through: LA ANGELS +120 or better.

Tuesday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Brewers -1.5 (+100) 

1* Free Pick on Seahawks -3½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1* MLB - Astros/Phillies FREE PICK on Astros +130 

Dave's Tuesday Free Play:

1* on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+105)

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Milwaukee Brewers as underdogs on the Run Line to the Chicago Cubs today.  The Brewers have basically clinched the NL Central with an 8-game lead, but they really want that #1 seed and home-field advantage over the Dodgers.  They lead the Dodgers by just 1.5 games for that spot so they will stay hungry.  Milwaukee has a big edge on the rubber tonight.  NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski is 14-5 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 26 starts this year.  He is 7-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 14 home starts.  He has faced the Cubs 3 times this year yielding 6 ER in 16 innings with the Brewers going 3-0 in those 3 games with all 3 wins by 3 runs or more.  David Peterson is 7-8 with a 5.39 ERA and 1.56 WHIP for the Cubs this year which has included 19 starts.  Peterson yielded 6 ER in 3 2/3 innings of a 9-5 loss to the Brewers on September 2nd in his last start.  Take Milwaukee on the Run Line.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Tampa Bay Rays +102

The Rays have the rest advantage over the Braves after having Monday off while the Braves were in Philadelphia.  Freddy Peralta seems to be settling in for the Rays giving up one earned run and 5 base runners in 12 innings in his last two starts.  Peralta has given up 3 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Braves for a 1.84 ERA.  AJ Smith-Shawver is 0-1 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in four starts for the Braves this season.  He has given up 14 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings.  Give me the Rays.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Angels +131

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #344 Syracuse Orange over California Golden Bears (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 12 ACC Network) Both teams have a game under their belt and we will follow the line movement in this game. Cal has a new coach and system and they fell apart last week in Berkely, being outscored 21-0 by UCLA to lose by 21 points. I do not have much confidence in this team and feel Ron Rivera is in over his head as general manager. Syracuse got some confidence last week destroying New Hampshire and they did win at Cal in 2024 in route to a 10 win season. I see them bouncing back this year and making a bowl game. They should be able to win this game by double digits. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend card featuring top plays football, soccer, and tennis. Sign-up now with a long term package and let 55 years of handicapping experience work for you.

1* Free Pick on Padres -173

Lions -7

Locking this in early. Analysis to follow.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

50-36 NFL sides run! 410-351 54% +2337 since Mid-Dec! The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. A BIG 5× Play Week 1 NFL Card going up, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Forty-four and a half is a quiet number until you remember who is walking into NRG on Sunday. Buffalo at Houston, 1:00 Eastern, Week 1, a pick’em dressed up like a heavyweight and a total that already admits this should look like 24-17, not 31-28. The public hears Josh Allen and starts adding touchdowns. The board heard Houston’s front and hung 44.5 like it meant it.

Last year the Bills went 12-5 and scored 481 points, 28.3 a night, tied for fourth in the league. That tape is real. So is a road opener in a building that has treated Allen like a tourist. Including the postseason he is 1-4 against this franchise with a 55.4 percent completion rate. That is not a curse you put on a poster. That is a completion percentage that lives in the 200s and a lot of third-and-long. Houston went 12-5 as well. The Texans were 7-11-1 to the total. Buffalo was 10-8-1. One of those clubs already knew how to keep a Sunday from turning into a track meet.

Week 1 is not January. First real snaps, first real crowd, first real script that has not been stress-tested since the spring. Openers lean under for a reason. Coaches call it safe. Quarterbacks check it down. Clock becomes the whole ticket. A 23-17 Texans win cashes 44.5 in its sleep. A 24-20 Bills win cashes. A 27-13 still has a pulse. The scores that beat it are the ones where both quarterbacks start slinging it in the fourth quarter of an opener because somebody panicked. That is not how this spot usually ages, and it is not how NRG usually ages when Buffalo is in town.

You do not need a defensive struggle that looks like 9-6. You need this to stay out of a late auction. Allen can still be the best player on the field and the under still gets paid. Stroud can still look like a franchise and the under still gets paid. The number is not asking you to fade talent. It is asking you to fade rust plus a Houston defense that does not need permission to hit.

Pertinent ledger from last season, the kind that lives on a football reference page if you want to stare at it: Bills 481 points in 17 games, 28.3 a night, 12-5, 19 giveaways. Texans 12-5, 12 giveaways, second-fewest in the league. Combined that is two grown clubs, not a cupcake and a bully. Combined they were not a 50-point problem every Sunday. Houston’s total record already told you that. Buffalo’s scoring average is the trap. People take 28.3, add a home dome, and forget that 28.3 was earned across a year, not on the first Sunday in somebody else’s building.

The public will smash Allen props and the over because the logo travels and the quarterback sells tickets. Let them. A 220-yard Allen night and a 210-yard Stroud night with a couple of field goals is an honest opener. James Cook can still eat and the total can still sit down. The ticket is not “nobody scores.” The ticket is “nobody turns this into a shootout before the rust comes off.”

Sit on 44.5. If the number drips to 43.5 it gets cleaner. If they hang 46.5, the edge is thinner and you can live without it. Sunday’s ticket is the under, not the chalk, not the revenge poster, not the first-game narrative that always sounds smarter on Saturday night.

Bet under the total in Week 1 games posted 45.5 or lower.

The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 12-7 (63.2%) with an average over/under of 43.8. (+4.1 units, ROI=19.7%)

Bet under the total in Bills road games against a 12-win defense.

That spot since 2023: 7-3 (70.0%) with an average over/under of 46.1. (+3.5 units, ROI=31.8%)

Bet under 45 in Week 1 games that open as a pick’em or inside a field goal.

That spot since 2024: 9-5 (64.3%) with an average over/under of 44.2. (+3.4 units, ROI=22.1%)

Bet under the total when Josh Allen plays in Houston.

That spot since 2022: 4-1 (80.0%) with an average over/under of 46.8. (+2.7 units, ROI=49.1%)

Confirm the number is still 44.5 closer to kick. Confirm both clubs are still listing the names you expect. Then take the under and let everybody else argue about a one-point spread in Week 1. Enjoy the early window. Bet the total. Let the logos yell at each other while the clock does the work.

Player Prop bets :Josh Allen’s passing line is sitting around 221.5. Take the under. He can still win the game and live in the 190s if Houston’s front gets him off schedule.

C.J. Stroud is around 218.5 passing yards. Same lean. Under. A home opener against Buffalo does not require 250. It requires 205 and a couple of scores.

Allen under 1.5 passing touchdowns is the other quarterback ticket. One through the air and a field-goal night is an honest road opener in this building.

James Cook around 73.5 rushing yards is the over that still fits the under. If this stays on the ground, he eats clock and the total still cashes.

My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We saw considerable regression from the Buccaneers down the stretch last season as they ultimately missed the playoffs after having it set up on a platter for them in the down-trodden NFC South. So obviously Tampa Bay has a chip on its shoulder entering the 2026 campaign but I'm not sure that will make a lick of difference. I think we're going to see the Bucs get involved in their share of shootouts again this year and in the season opener, that suits Cincinnati just fine. The Bengals finally have QB Joe Burrow healthy to start a season and he has all the weapons around him he needs to take his team on a 'Super Bowl of bust' type of run this year. The big news is that Cincinnati finally made some moves to bolster its much-maligned defense. I think the Bengals defense is well-positioned to come up with the splash plays needed to ultimately pull away in this particular contest. Bettors are hesitant to back the Bengals in Week 1 given their early season futility in recent years. I think this is a team with a fresh outlook, however, and one that brings a lot of optimism into its home opener. Take Cincinnati (8*).

Our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers to defeat the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday at 10:10pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Cincinnati will start Nick Lodolo -- His earned run average is in the 5.00's this season and that's a bad recipe against LAD.

The Reds are just 41-58 against opponents within the National League this year.

Los Angeles will start Tarik Skubal -- He has some of the best statistics in the MLB again here in 2026.

The Dodgers are still one of the top teams in the MLB with a 45-28 record here at home.

We're on LAD.

AAA Sports

1% GOLD RUSH on Seahawks -3½

FREE PLAY on Angels/Red Sox under 7½

3* on over

PSP Data Driven 1* Red Sox.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite.The Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games. The Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 games.

Baltimore finally won a game in September. The Orioles are 35-38 at home this year, and the Guardians are 37-33 on the road. Cleveland has won three of their last five games, but they have allowed six runs in three of those five. Both pitchers have been inconsistent, but Baltimore's Young has pitched better lately. I will take Baltimore to win their second in a row.

Play on Baltimore. This is a FREE play.