Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Marlins over 7½ -115

Ricky's 1* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Over is 4-1 in Atlanta's last 5 games.

- The Over is 7-3 in Pittsburgh's last 10 games.

- The Over is 4-1 in Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home.

Verdict: We should see plenty of Runs in this game.

1* Bet on Sky/Mercury: over 174½

(#967) Boston Red Sox | ML | . 

Payton Tolle (4-6, 3.39 ERA) vs. Noah Schultz (2-5, 5.86 ERA) . 

In a battle of the "Sox," I'm going with the Red Sox in the opening game of this series. Entering this game. Payton Tolle has been fantastic. I understand that his record is below .500 and he's coming off a disappointing outing in his latest matchup. However, he's consistently bounced back after minor setbacks and I expect him to do the exact same thing on Tuesday. 

Looking at the White Sox, they'll turn to Noah Schultz here this evening. Despite being an exciting prospect in this CWS organization, he's still young and has plenty to work on. I believe that the Red Sox will be able to take advantage of him in this one. Give me Boston. 

Burns' Prediction: 6-3 Red Sox.

*2 BIG GAME PLAYS* Joe D’s MLB is HOT HOT HOT! Today, we continue to BURN THE BOOKS on the diamond with my 6-1 MLB TOP RATED RELEASE & my MLB TUESDAY SMASH WINNER.

Tuesday’s free play; Philadelphia Phillies.

Game 955.

4:10 PM PST/7:10 PM EST.

The Philadelphia Phillies are making a run for the National League East. As a matter of fact, this team deserves a lot of praise. After a 9-19 start, they have now won 41 of their last 61 games. They are just 3.0-games back of the Atlanta Braves in the division. However, they must keep their foot on the gas as just behind them is sitting in the Miami Marlins, 4.0 games back. The Cincinnati Reds are a nightmare. They sit in last place in Central division at 41-48. Playing at home has not benefited this team at all as they are just 20-24 this season at Great American Ballpark. This team show no signs of improvement, going just 2-6 their last eight outings. During that eight-game span, their offense has accounted for more than four runs just once, while their pitching staff has yielded significant runs every one of those games. As a matter of fact, in seven of their last 10 contests, their staff has gotten steamrolled for four or more runs. Having said that, today, Zack Wheeler and Andrew Abbott are expected scheduled starters. The Phillies right-hander has been superb this season, going 8-1 with a 2.36 ERA, as the team has been victorious in 11 of his 13 starts. All of his numbers are very impressive; 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA over his last three turns, and 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA away from home. The Reds left-hander possesses some respectable numbers, going 5-4 with a 3.88 ERA on the campaign. To be quite honest, he’s only gotten steamrolled a few times this season. He just doesn’t get the run support. However, at home this season he is just 2-2 with a whopping ERA of 4.75. I mentioned run support a little bit ago. Just FYI the Cincinnati offense ranks in the bottom third in just about every major offensive category. Even if he puts in a good performance, overall, the pitching staff owns a team ERA of 4.57. This game almost made it as a premium release for me. I still feel it offers us value. Take the Philadelphia Phillies. Thank you.

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Braves/Pirates OVER 8

The Pittsburgh Pirates have quietly been an OVER team this season with one of the most improved offenses in baseball.  They have gone 53-36-2 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.2 runs per game and allowing 4.9 runs per game.

Paul Skenes in particular has been overvalued for the Pirates.  The OVER is 11-7 in his 18 starts this season.  Skenes has allowed 11 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts coming in to fall to 6-8 with a 3.90 ERA this season.  He faces a potent Atlanta lineup that is scoring 4.9 runs per game this season.

Hurston Waldrep will be making his 2nd start of the season for the Braves.  Waldrep is 6-2 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 70 2/3 innings in his career in the big leagues.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 11-5 loss to the Cardinals on July 2nd in his last start.

The Braves are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all five games, including 13 or more runs in four of them.  The Pirates are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in nine of those 10 games, and 10 or more in seven of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our Tuesday Free Play. Chicago was against the wall with three straight losses but took the final two games in Cleveland to jump back in front in the American League Central. Noah Schultz opened the season with four solid starts, posting a 2.53 ERA covering 21.1 innings but then things got a little squirrely as he gave up seven runs and six runs in two games over his next four outings and landed on the IL. He missed just over five weeks and made his return a week ago and was not very sharp as his command was off but that was expected. He is back home after three straight road starts dating back to mid-May. Boston continued the road success, at least in comparison to their home ineptness, as the Red Sox swept the Angels to move two games over .500 on the road. Payton Tolle has become a fan favorite in Boston and he has shown the ability but he has been inconsistent of late, posting a 5.33 ERA in his last five starts after posting a 2.28 ERA in his first eight outings. Play (968) Chicago White Sox

Fargo is coming off a slightly profitable 1-1 MLB Monday with the win on the +115 Mets and he continues the great start to the season. TWO Winners on Monday including a Divisional Game of the Month (2-0 in July)!

1* Free Pick on Sky +3½

Phoenix has won three straight and eight in a row in this series, but the price at home isn't right.

I want the Sky and the hook.

Start with the frontcourt.

Kamilla Cardoso is putting up 14.6 points and 8.7 rebounds a night for Chicago, and Azura Stevens next to her gives the Sky two legitimate bigs.

The Mercury are missing Natasha Mack, their interior defensive specialist, and Noemie Brochant is game-time decision with an ankle.

Phoenix leans on Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner up front, and that pairing has to guard Cardoso for 30-plus minutes.

The opposition case is real.

Skylar Diggins to the bench is messy, Rickea Jackson averaged 18 points before the season-ending knee, and Kahleah Copper has scored 20-plus in six of her last seven.

All of that is priced in.

Chicago is 2-8 in the last 10 and this line is only 3.5.

What the market is missing is the split.

The Sky are 5-7 against the West and 1-7 against the East.

This is the matchup type they actually cover.

They also just took the Aces to overtime in a 98-90 loss, so the compete level with a shorthanded roster is there.

Phoenix is 3-6 at home.

Sydney Taylor dropped 30 on Indiana on June 11 and Gabriela Jaquez has 20-point games in the tank.

The rookies give Chicago enough scoring pop to hang inside a field goal.

I'll take the points and the interior mismatch.

I like the Sky

1* MLB - Yankees/Rays FREE PICK on Rays -117

Dave's Tuesday Free Play:

1* on Miami Marlins -118

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Miami Marlins as short home favorites over the Seattle Mariners tonight.  The Marlins are the hottest team in baseball going 23-8 in their last 31 games overall.  Miami has a big edge on the rubber tonight as well.  Max Meyer is their ace going 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 18 starts this year, and 5-0 with a 2.13 ERA in 9 home starts.  Bryan Woo has as big of home/road splits as anyone.  He has been terrible away from Seattle at 1-6 with a 6.38 ERA in 9 road starts this year while yielding 34 ER in 48 innings.  Take Miami.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Phillies vs Reds under 8½ -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Guardians/Twins OVER 8.5

The Twins are 57-33-1 OVER in all games this season.  They are 25-11-1 OVER in their last 37 games with 9 or more combined runs in 24 of their last 34 games and 10 or more in 22 of those.  Joey Cantillo is 7-3 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 18 starts this season, and 3-2 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in nine road starts.  Taj Bradley is 7-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  It will be hot in Minnesota tonight with temperatures in the 80's.  Give me the OVER.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Astros +111

Tuesday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Cubs -110

I've been digging deeper into the numbers for this Mariners-Marlins matchup, and the more layers you peel back the clearer it becomes that the under 8 carries real weight tonight at loanDepot park. Max Meyer enters with a 9-1 record and 2.53 ERA over 103 innings pitched, numbers that include a 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings rate and a microscopic 0.9 home runs per nine allowed. His walk rate sits near 3.1 per nine, producing a strikeout-to-walk ratio right around 3.1-to-1 and a WHIP of 1.11. At home those figures tighten even further, with his ERA dropping toward 2.13 in the samples we have, which mathematically translates to limiting opponents to roughly 8.5 to 9 baserunners per nine innings when you factor in the high strikeout volume removing batters before they ever reach base.

Bryan Woo counters with his own 7-6 mark and 4.17 ERA across 99.1 innings, backed by 97 strikeouts against just 19 walks for a walk rate that stays under 1.8 per nine. That gives him a WHIP hovering near 1.03 and keeps the combined starter WHIP for the game right around 1.07. If you do the quick math on that average, you're looking at approximately 9.6 baserunners per nine innings before defense and bullpen adjustments, but the elevated combined strikeout rate near 9.3 per nine pulls a meaningful chunk of those potential runners out of play entirely through strikeouts rather than balls in play. Historically, when opposing starters in this park have posted strikeout rates above 9.0 per nine while keeping the home run rate below 1.0, the totals have landed under eight runs in better than three out of every five similar contests over the past couple of seasons.

The Mariners' offense as a whole is generating just 4.1 runs per game this year, a figure that ranks among the lower marks in the league and drops further on the road where they've been especially quiet against right-handed pitching with swing-and-miss stuff. Their team batting average sits at .231, and when you isolate road splits against arms posting sub-3.00 ERAs the run output has trended even lower. One angle that's been paying off consistently is betting the under on Seattle's own team total in away games, where they've hit the under in 11 of their last 16 contests. That recent form lines up directly with facing a pitcher like Meyer who's been this dominant on his home mound.

Miami's lineup carries a .254 average but has shown limited extra-base production against this style of pitching, particularly when the opposing staff limits hard contact the way these two starters have. Meyer's 0.9 homers per nine combined with Woo's ground-ball tendencies creates a suppression effect on extra-base hits that shows up clearly when you compare their batted-ball profiles to league averages. If both pitchers handle even a standard six-plus inning workload with their typical command, the run expectancy stays suppressed because the formula for baserunner accumulation gets capped twice: once by the low walk rates and again by the strikeout volume that prevents balls in play from turning into rallies. Add in Seattle's bullpen sitting among the league's better units by ERA and the picture sharpens further.

What stands out after working through these metrics is how cleanly the angles stack without forcing anything. You've got elite home dominance from the Marlins' starter, a road offense that's been undershooting its seasonal norms at a high rate, and two pitching groups that keep the ball in the yard better than most. It's the kind of spot where the math favors the under more often than not, and I've spent enough time studying these low-contact environments to recognize when the conditions line up this way. If Meyer continues dealing and Woo maintains his control, this has the look of one of those nights where the final score settles in the low-to-mid single digits far more frequently than the over side would like.

My selection is on the Athletics over Detroit at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday.

These two teams are certainly trending in opposite directions right now but that's clearly reflected in the price. I think we have a case of undervalued vs. overvalued at play in terms of the starting pitching matchup as J.T. Ginn takes the ball for the A's against Tarik Skubal for the Tigers. Skubal is of course still waiting to see if he'll remain a Tiger come August. He was terrific last time out as he gave up just one hit and one earned run in a 9-3 win over the struggling Yankees. Prior to that, Detroit had lost three of his last four starts, however, and he'll face an A's club that ranks seventh in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Ginn has given up three earned runs or less in four straight starts. The A's are 4-1 over his last five outings and 5-3 when he takes the ball on the road this season. I simply feel the price is too good to pass up on the underdog A's in this spot. Take the Athletics (8*).

AAA Sports' Selection: San Francisco Giants (ML).

Toronto will start Spencer Miles -- He's a relief pitcher so he will not go too far into this game.

The Blue Jays are just 3-10 over their L13 games played this season .

They are also 4-8 on the road against opponents from the NL on the year.

San Francisco will start Trevor McDonald -- Is coming off his best start of the season. Confidence will be high.

The Giants are 5-1 over their L6 games played against opponents from the AL.

The play is on SF.

Athletics vs Tigers MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Detroit Tigers are 3-10 as runline home favorites against American League rivals and bettors are always always paying an extra tax with Tarik Skubal (4-4, 3.15 ERA) on the mound for Detroit.

The A's counter with J.T. Ginn (7-4, 3.04 ERA) who is having a completely respectable year. The A's have won four of his last five starts, and they are 6-1 against the runline as underdogs with Ginn as the starter. 

The Bet: Athletics +1.5 (3%). 

FREE PLAY on Mariners +110

3* on under

PSP Data Driven 1* Braves+1.5

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. Atlanta are 4-1 in its last 5 games against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh are 5-12 in its last 17 games against an opponent in the National League East Division.

Rested non-divisional away favorites or small underdogs under specific situations that apply in this game are up 100.3 units with a 17.1 ROI.

The strongest support starts with the Luck Factor mismatch: Boston is -6.56, Chicago is +6.25, creating a massive 12.81-gap toward the undervalued side. By this method, Boston is the clear play.

"Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

Beyond that, the matchup backs it up:

Boston is playing its best baseball, winning 8 of its last 10, while Chicago’s strong record looks inflated by fortune and a 28-14 home mark that may be fully priced into the market.

The starting pitching edge is Boston. Payton Tolle owns a 3.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and excellent night splits with a 2.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Noah Schultz sits at 5.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, with a worse recent form profile: 7.90 ERA over his last three starts.

Schultz’s control is a major red flag against a Boston team in form. He has walked 26 in 43 innings, plus four hit batters, and has allowed a homer in three straight starts and four of his last five.

Bottom line: the biggest luck-gap play on the board also has the better starter, better bullpen metrics, better recent form, and a vulnerable opposing lefty with command and home-run issues.