Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Alexandra Eala +140

1* Free Pick on Patriots/Bears under 50½

3* on under

Phoenix–Portland presents substantial agreement between the independent statistical projections and a meaningful downward market adjustment.

SportsLine projects 225 combined points, while Dunks & Threes projects 229. Another independent projection estimates approximately 230.

The total has declined from 235.5 to 231.5, a four-point adjustment that deserves considerable attention.

Phoenix will be without Mark Williams following shoulder surgery. His absence affects interior defense, rebounding and the distribution of center minutes.

Portland will be without Shaedon Sharpe, while Deni Avdija remains questionable because of ankle soreness.

Sharpe's absence removes an established perimeter scoring option. Avdija's availability is particularly important because of his offensive versatility and ability to initiate possessions.

Portland is also integrating Ja Morant alongside Damian Lillard, creating a new backcourt combination that requires adjustments in ball distribution and offensive spacing.

All three projections favor fewer points than the available total, although the downward market movement has already reduced the original advantage.

Play to: UNDER 230.5

1* Free Pick on Patriots +3

The line says Chicago is the better team.

The season says otherwise, and the matchup detail that should scare you off the Patriots doesn't hold up.

New England is 4-2 and has won 4 of its last 5, averaging 25.2 points a game over that stretch.

Drake Maye threw 3 touchdown passes in Sunday's 26-19 win over the Jets, and A.J.

Brown is back in the lineup after missing four games.

Chicago is also 4-2, but the profile is softer.

The Bears are averaging just 18.2 points over their last 5 and got run off the field 31-7 in Green Bay two weeks ago.

The obvious concern is New England's offensive line.

Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown are both doubtful, Morgan Moses is questionable, and Mike Vrabel admitted "I think that Caleb will have to be ready to go at multiple positions."

Here's why that concern is overpriced: Chicago can't make them pay.

Montez Sweat is suspended through Week 7, and Dayo Odeyingbo, second on the team with 3 sacks, just went on IR.

The two best edge rushers on this roster are watching from home.

Backup guards against a gutted pass rush is a survivable spot.

Caleb Williams looked sharp in his return against Atlanta, but he now faces Christian Gonzalez and a Patriots secondary that has been the strength of this team, on a short week, against a better opponent than the Falcons.

Getting a field goal with the team playing better football is the value side.

I like the Patriots

Dave's Wednesday Free Play:

1* on Sacramento Kings +5

The Key: Both the Kings and Clippers have been mentioned as 2 of the worst teams in the NBA all offseason.  But I think the Kings are in better position to perform well heading into their opener than the Clippers are.  The Kings are actually healthy with LaVine, Hunter, Murray, Sabonis and Acuff Jr. all available as starters.  The Clippers are without 3 of their best players in Ingram, Beal and Strus.  This starting lineup of Garland, Wagler, Jones Jr., Hachimura and Jackson is not as good as what the Kings are putting out there.  Getting 5 points with the Kings is a nice price tonight.  Take Sacramento.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Warriors/Lakers UNDER 234.5

The Warriors are the definition of an UNDER team with their roster this season.  They are without Porzingis and Podziemski to start the season, and Curry suffered an ankle injury already though he should be good to go.  I have to think he'll be on a minutes restriction.  The three other starters will be rookie Lendeborg, PF Santos and C Green.  Two other offensive liabilities are coming off the bench in Payton II and Horford.  The Lakers will likely prove to be an over team as the season goes on but there will be some growing pains offensively early.  They added a great defender in C Walker Kessler who won't provide much offensively.  Doncic and Reaves are solid, but it will take some time to implement Grimes and LaRavia alongside Kessler.  Thybulle is known for defense and will get a lot of minutes for this team.  Give me the UNDER.

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Thursday Card led by the NBA Masterpiece Collection side, the Thursday night CFB Game of the Year from a 17-0 system and an NFL Perfect totals system. NHL Comp play below

The NHL Comp play for Thursday is on the St. Louis Blues at 8:10 eastern. A nice early season NHL Database system takes center stage here tonight as Rob see that Game 25 or earlier road favorites that allowed 6+ goals at home do not bounce back well vs .450 or better home teams that are off a home win. The Blues have done well thus far considering they have opened up with 6 of the first 9 on the road. In their home games they have 2 wins and an OT Loss. Vegas is just 1-4 as a road favorite off a home loss and an even worse 0-5 on the road after allowing 6+ goals at home with rest. Play on the Blues tonight. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take #387 Michigan State Spartans over UCLA Bruins (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 24, CBS)

UCLA has been a pleasant surprise in the Big Ten this season, standing as the only unbeaten team in either the Big Ten or SEC. Still, this is a hefty number to lay with a backup quarterback. The Bruins were one-dimensional against Wisconsin, and I expect Michigan State to make running the football difficult again.

The Spartans are rebuilding under a new coach, but they’ve shown they can compete, taking Illinois and Northwestern down to the wire. I expect another competitive effort here, with Michigan State keeping the final margin within 7–10 points.

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OVER 53.5

Detroit's offense is averaging nearly 33 PPG and Goff has been surgical with 12 TD passes and zero turnovers. Now he gets an extra week to prepare for a Green Bay defense whose recent improvement came against backup QBs and a struggling Dallas attack. That's a different assignment than dealing with this Lions offense. The problem for Detroit? Its defense is surrendering more than 400 yards per game, giving Love and Green Bay plenty of opportunities to answer. With Jacobs expected back, the Packers have another weapon to keep the scoreboard moving. This one has shootout written all over it. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER 53.5. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over San Francisco at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We cashed a ticket fading the 49ers on Monday Night Football as they won but failed to cover against the Commanders. Still undefeated on the season, I think the Niners are ripe for the 'upset' as they head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta is coming off a tough home loss to the Bears last week. That marked its second straight loss both SU and ATS and it has quickly fallen out of favor with most bettors following a brief surge that saw it win consecutive primetime games in Green Bay and New Orleans. I still think the Falcons are a good team with plenty of weapons on offense and a competitive defense led by an underrated coordinator in Jeff Ulbrich. Look for the Falcons to scheme up a gameplan to take San Francisco down to the wire at the very least on Sunday, noting that this will only be the Niners second true road game of the season (they won the other by a field goal in Seattle two weeks ago). Take Atlanta (8*).

1% GOLD RUSH on Bears -3

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At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite.The Suns are 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Suns are 1-3 in their last 4 road games.

For my best free pick on the board here for Wednesday in the NBA I am looking at the Sacramento Kings at the LA Clippers. Should see big time action on the home team at this semi small number but this Kings team I expect them to take a step foreword this season with all their young talent. Clippers notoriously slow starters year after year this has 3 point game written all over it. Kings have played the Clippers tough covering 4 of the last 6 games. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings plus the points rotation #527

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