Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Padres +128

1* Free Pick on Cardinals -2½

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Tennessee Titans +11.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Tennessee Titans after a 0-3 start.  After opening with a 13-point loss to the Jets, the Titans had their chances to win in the final seconds in each of their last two games.  They lost by 4 as 7-point dogs to the Eagles and by 5 as 2.5-point dogs to the Giants.

While the Titans are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL, the Ravens are dealing with a ton of injuries that do not warrant them being this big of a favorite.  They lost their top two centers in Pocic and Gwynn to injury last week and are down to a rookie 3rd-stringer.  LB Trey Hendrickson is out, while WR Zay Flowers and OT Ronnie Stanley are questionable.

The Ravens are vulnerable up the middle offensively now.  That makes this a particularly bad matchup for them going up against the biggest strength of the Titans, which is the interior of their defensive line led by Jeffery Simmons.  Robert Saleh will take advantage of this weakness for the Ravens and send plenty of pressure up the middle.

This is also a letdown spot for the Ravens.  They have the long flight back from Brazil after escaping with a last-second win over the Cowboys last week.  We see them come up flat as big favorites at home multiple times every season.  They already did it once losing outright to the Saints as 8.5-point favorites in Week 2.  They may find a way to win this game, but I fully expect it to be closer than this line suggests.

The Titans have a very good offensive line and a solid running game when their backs in Pollard and Spears are healthy.  It's supposed to rain throughout the game, so running the football and stopping the run will be very important.  I think Tennessee matches up well in both departments with the Ravens.  The rain will suppress scoring, which will help keep the Titans in this game.

The Titans average 4.2 yards per rush and allow 3.6 yards per rush this season.  Baltimore rushes for 5.2 yards per carry while allowing 4.1 per carry.  But the Ravens have played a very easy schedule of opposing defenses in the Colts, Cowboys and Saints.  This Tennessee defense will bet the best unit Baltimore has faced this season.

NFL teams that are 0-3 entering Week 4 up against a team with at least one win are 47-25-1 ATS since 2005.  I would not play all these teams blindly, but the Titans are my favorite of the bunch in this situation.  It makes sense too because these 0-3 teams play with more desperation than their opponents.  They are also undervalued after three straight losses, and the Titans fit that bill.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

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3* on Bucs

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 10/3:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. Take the Tennessee Titans plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens. Tennessee (0-3) remains winless this season after their 12-7 loss on the road in New York against the Giants as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Titans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three games in a row. And while first-year head coach Robert Saleh has a 23-35 ATS mark in his head coaching career mostly with the New York Jets, those Jets teams covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games played in October which suggests his ability to make adjustments after the first month of the season. Baltimore (2-1) comes off a 34-31 last second victory against Dallas on Sunday in that game played in Brazil as a 3-point favorite. The Ravens return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored. Take Tennessee plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

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What if I told you there was an underdog of more than a field goal that had the superior defense and better quarterback. Would you be interested?

I am even though that underdog is the Jets.

It's understandable why the home Bears are favored. Yet the more I look at this matchup the more I like the Jets.

Backup QB Tyson Bagent is likely to make his first start of the season for Chicago. He won't have his left tackle, injured Braxton Jones. Another Bears tackle, Ozzy Trapilo, has yet ready to return from his 2025 season-ending knee injury.

The Jets give up the second fewest yards. They also rank No. 3 in pass defense and 7th in run defense. They have more sacks than the Bears. New York also is expected to get back its key player in the secondary with safety Minkah Fitzpatrick scheduled to return to the lineup.

The Jets' defense isn't the only thing that is underrated. So is QB Geno Smith. He has a 110 passer rating. That is the fourth highest among non-replacement starting NFL quarterbacks and the highest by a Jets QB through Week 3 in franchise history. Smith is averaging 261 pass yards per game and has 4 TDs and 0 INTs.

The Bears lack a strong enough pass rush to bother Smith. Chicago also is without its top cornerback, injured Kyler Gordon. The Bears rank 28th in yards per play allowed. They were torched by a mediocre at best Panthers offense for 37 points and 478 yards in Week 1.

The 1-2 Jets are in stop-the-pain mode after losing by one score to the Lions and in overtime to the Packers during the last two weeks.

The Bears, on the other hand, are in letdown mode following their impressive home underdog victory against the Eagles this past Monday night.  (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 8-3 on his last 11 NFL premium plays and 52-31 on his NFL Sunday premium plays going back to last season. Stephen has four premium NFL Sunday plays, including his Game of the Week and  Lions-Panthers Sunday Night Blockbuster, along with this free selection.) 

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Dolphins +10.5 

1* NFL - Cowboys/Texans FREE PICK on Texans -3

1* Free Pick on Seahawks -7

The Chargers are 0-3 and averaging just 14.7 points a game.

Now they fly to Seattle to face the defending champion Seahawks, who are angry after losing a close one in Washington.

Start with the quarterbacks.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert is completing 59.1 percent of his passes with a 3:4 TD:INT ratio through three games.

His supporting cast is thin.

Tight ends Charlie Kolar and David Njoku are both out, and right tackle Trey Pipkins III is on IR.

That matters against a Seattle defense that has already given up the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.

Los Angeles has not been close to competitive.

They lost 26-14 to the Cardinals, 26-14 to the Raiders, then fell in Buffalo despite forcing 5 turnovers.

When your defense hands you 5 takeaways and you still lose, the offense is broken.

Seattle is a different story.

The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 a game and allowing 16.7.

Their only loss came on a pick-six in the final minutes at Washington.

Before that they went into Arizona and won 31-7.

Sam Darnold is back under center and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on the field in this one.

He takes a 27-405-6 line on 36 targets into Week 4 with three straight games over 120 receiving yards.

The Chargers have no answer for him.

Good team at home off a loss against a bad team that cannot score.

Seven points is not enough.

I like the Seahawks

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Jaguars/Bengals OVER 51.5

The Key: The Jaguars have been protecting double-digit 2H leads each of the first 3 games of the season so they haven't been pressing the issue offensively.  They are much more potent on offense than they have shown, and they will need to show it this week to match this high-octane Cincinnati offense score for score.  The Bengals were also protecting double-digit leads in their first 2 games against the Bucs and Texans.  They went score for score with the Steelers last week in a 30-27 loss.  I think we see a similar result here with the Jaguars as these are 2 of the best offenses in the NFL, and 2 defenses that are very vulnerable in the secondary.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 matchups between the Bengals and Jaguars and Burrow didn't even play in the last 2 matchups.  They still went for 65 and 58 combined points.  Take the OVER.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Seattle Seahawks will be motivated when they return home to bounce back from one of the most shocking losses of the season.  They lost 33-31 to Marcus Mariota and the Commanders last week in sloppy conditions.  When you look at the box score, the Seahawks had no business losing that game.  They outgained the Commanders by 179 yards but were -3 in turnovers, including a Pick 6 from Sam Darnold.  He'll be much sharper in his 2nd back back from injury.  The Seahawks are outgaining their opponents by 149 yards per game and 2.3 yards per play this season.  They haven't missed a beat since winning the Super Bowl.  Their defense is the best in the NFL giving up only 228.7 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  The 0-3 Chargers are getting outgained by 41 yards per game.  They even lost to the Bills by 8 last week despite being +4 in turnovers.  They are broken and banged up, and now they have a ton of travel in between coming back from Buffalo this week and now flying up to Seattle for consecutive road games.  They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and Justin Herbert just doesn't have time.  Ladd McConkey is banged up and questionable, and they don't have many weapons outside him.  They are down their top two TE's.  Three starters in the secondary in James, Molden and Jackson are all questionable, and they are without NT Tomlinson.  The Seahawks are going to own them at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football and it will lead to a win by more than a touchdown in this one.  Give me the Seahawks.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Jaguars vs Bengals over 51½ -102

SUNDAY Card with a 10* NFL Non Division Play of the Year with a 100% System and 24-1 stat, we also have a TOP Total, the RED ZONE Play, 100% WNBA Playoff System and MLB. Comp play below
 
The NFL Comp play is on the Tennessee Titans plus the 11+ points here today. The Titans are in a nice system that has cashed 27 of 28 times since 2005 and pertains to non division grass road dogs of 2 or more off a road loss if they had less than 18 minutes of time of possession is back to back games and are taking on a team like Baltimore that allowed more than 7 points. The Titans have a statistically better defense and their offense which has been below average should do better here than it did last week in the rainy weather last week in NY. Baltimore off the dramatic win in Brazil getting a field goal despite having just 8 seconds left a re likely to bounce a bit here as they play off the long distance with no additional rest. Look for the Titans to keep this within the number today. GL Rob V-
 
SU: 15-14 
ATS: 27-1-1

Team: 21.7
Opp: 22.0
 
 
 
Oct 04, 2026 01:00 Sun 4 2026 Titans Ravens away - - - - - 11.5 42.5

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our Sunday Free Play. Denver opened the season with a blowout loss at Kansas City but has won its last two games, both at home, against Jacksonville and Los Angeles by one possession which is something that has carried over from last season. In both of those victories, Denver was down double digits and that is not ideal to recover from as teams to win consecutive games trailing by 10 or more points in each are 7-13 ATS in their next game over the last 10 seasons. San Francisco has caught a break with the schedule as it opened with Los Angeles in Australia and caught the Rams on one day of travel and then the 49ers hosted Miami and Arizona so this will be their third straight home game. The level of competition goes up but the spot is good with the Broncos once again near the top of the luck rankings. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a home win. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1983. Play (272) San Francisco 49ers

Fargo is now 14-5-2 in the NFL to start the season following a Browns Win on Thursday! College Football is 20-15 YTD following another winning week with action day and night Saturday. NFL has FIVE Winners on Sunday.

Take: 266. Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (10 pt / 1 et)

Philadelphia is primed to cash as a home dog here on Snday against the LA Rams. While Philly came away with an ugly loss at Chicago in Week 1, they return to Lincoln Financial Field looking to improve upon their 1-0 home record to start the season while Los Angeles fell to 0-1 away from SoFi Stadium last week.

They also won their last four meetings against the Rams, including a playoff game in 2021. Philadelphia will be without DeVonta Smith and Zack Baun Sunday, but Los Angeles can’t even suit up Aaron Donald, which should open up running lanes for Hurts and the Eagles’ ground game. The Rams also completely collapsed last week in Denver, surrendering a 16-0 halftime lead, which bodes well for their Week 2 opponent as well.

Expect Hurts to make plays with his legs and keep drives alive, while Philadelphia gets better than a field goal at home and covers the spread.

Colts -3

Indy has the cleaner path to controlling this game. Washington is allowing more than 280 passing yards per game, and opposing QB's have consistently found room against a defense that has surrendered 11 TD's through three weeks. The Commanders are also allowing TD's on 75% of opposing red-zone trips. That gives Daniel Jones a favorable matchup, but Jonathan Taylor is where I expect Indy to establish control. Washington is coming off an emotional win behind Marcus Mariota, while the Colts just handled a physical Houston defense. At only a FG, I'll lay it. Back Indy. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the COLTS -3. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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Highmark Stadium gets the early window Sunday, and the number has already done the thing sharps hate. Patriots at Bills opened around Buffalo -3 and is now Bills -6.5, total 48.5, moneyline near -325. The play is Patriots +6.5.

Buffalo is 3-0 and the right side to win the game. They have scored 101 points and allowed 78, 33.7 and 26.0 per game, first and 21st. Yards are 401.7 a game, fourth. The point differential is +23, the margin of victory is 7.7, and the SRS is 0.9 on a soft schedule. Josh Allen is 56 of 86 for 786 yards, 5 passing touchdowns and 2 interceptions, a 65.1 percent completion rate, plus 119 rushing yards and 6 rushing scores on 23 non-kneel carries. That is 11 touchdowns in three weeks from one human. James Cook has 346 yards at 6.0 a carry. Dalton Kincaid has 14 catches for 263 yards. Offensive EPA per play is 0.228, second in the league, and the run game is first in EPA per rush. If you are betting the moneyline, stop reading and take Buffalo.

The spread is a different market. A model that has the Bills winning about 72 percent of the time projects this 27-20 and calls -6.5 a coin flip, 50 percent either way. You do not lay a key number for a coin flip. The line moved from -3 to -6.5 because New England looks broken on offense, and the market overshot the hook.

The Patriots are 1-2. They have scored 36 points and allowed 51, 12.0 and 17.0 per game, 31st and sixth. Yards gained are 307.0, 21st. Yards allowed are 278.3, fifth, including 170.0 passing yards allowed, second. Point differential is -15. Offensive EPA per play is -0.130, 28th. Drake Maye’s EPA per play is around -0.070, 28th among quarterbacks. Points per drive are 0.97, worst in the league. Their only win was a 20-point effort against Pittsburgh. The other two weeks they looked like a team that forgot the end zone existed. That part is not a mirage.

The part the number is ignoring is the other side of the ball. New England’s defense is 12th in EPA per play and fourth in EPA per dropback. Buffalo’s defense is 25th in yards allowed at 361.3, 27th in passing yards allowed at 254.3, and 25th in EPA per play. They allow 2.52 points per drive, 25th. After giving up 31 in each of the first two weeks, they had one cleaner game against the Chargers and the market treated it like a rebirth. It was one week. This defense still leaks, and a leaky defense against a bad offense is how dogs cover without ever leading.

Third downs tell the same story. Buffalo converts 54.5 percent, New England 32.5 percent. Buffalo has 13 touchdowns, New England has 3. Buffalo has 8 rushing scores. If Cook and Allen live in the red zone, the Patriots are not winning this. They do not have to. A 24-17 or 27-20 is a winner on +6.5 and a loser on the moneyline. Last 10 meetings between these two have gone over 7 times, which fits a Bills team that scores and a Bills defense that gives some of it back. Weather is a shrug. Cloudy, about 61 degrees, wind around 9. Not a lake-effect alibi.

Bet the road dog when an AFC East favorite opens at -3 and closes at -6.5 or higher. The dog’s record in that spot since the 2023 season: 9-5 (64.3 percent) against an average spread of 6.5. (+2.9 unit$, ROI=19.3%)

Bet the points when the home favorite allows 25 or more points per game and the total is 48.5 or lower. The dog’s record since the 2024 season: 14-9 (60.9 percent) against an average spread of 6.0. (+3.1 unit$, ROI=12.7%)

Bet the under when New England is on the road and scoring under 15 points per game. The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 6-3 (66.7 percent) with an average over/under of 43.5. (+2.1 unit$, ROI=21.0%)

That last one is a lean, not the card. The total at 48.5 is a pass. Buffalo can hang 30 by itself, and the series has been a fireworks show more often than a rock fight. The side is the bet.

The hold is obvious. If Allen runs in two more scores and Cook keeps ripping off 6.0 a carry, -6.5 is the correct side and this ticket is a donation to the Orchard Park gift shop. New England has one passing touchdown all year. One. A defense can only keep you close for so long when the offense is producing less than a point per drive. That is why this is one unit, juice no worse than -105. If the number drips back to +7, buy it. If it snaps to +5.5, you are late. Shop +6.5. Let the hook do the work.

Pick was recorded at +6.5 ---with +7 being even better. 

My selection is on Arizona over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While the Giants enter this game with the better overall record, I don't think there's any question it's the Cardinals that appear to have more upside through three weeks of the season. I really liked the fight Arizona showed in last week's loss but ATS cover on the road against the 49ers. Bettors wanted no part of the Cards after their blowout loss at home against Seattle in Week 2. Keep in mind, the Seahawks had extra time to prepare for that matchup after opening the season on a Wednesday. That's not to mention the fact that the Cards were in a clear letdown after pulling off a road upset of the Chargers in Week 1. The situation on offense is bad enough for the Giants that they elected to sign Vikings cast-off QB J.J. McCarthy. Last week's win over Tennessee had everything to do with the ineptness of the Titans and very little to do with New York's own crisp play. That was an ugly game all around that to put bluntly, someone had to win. While the Giants might have had a chance to compete this year with a healthy Jaxson Dart at quarterback, I fully expect them to quickly fall well back of the pack with Jameis Winston running what already looks like a broken offense (the fact that they're bent on featuring RB Cam Skattebo as the focal point is the biggest red flag). Take Arizona (8*).

1% GOLD RUSH on Jaguars/Bengals: over 51½

Free Play – Take #279 Detroit -3.5 over Carolina (8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 4)

Detroit is #3 in scoring; that’s good. The Lions are last in points allowed in the NFL, that’s not good. Carolina is #6 and #26, respectively in those two categories. So we should see plenty of points. Yet, the Lions have had injury concerns all year in the secondary and on the offensive line, but now that's true about the Panthers as well, with their top two corners and best O-lineman out. Detroit probably can’t wait to get to Charlotte to attack the Cats secondary. At the same time, QB Bryce Young has to be salivating watching all the soft coverage and underneath throws available against Detroit. Carolina is 10-0 ATS off a loss, DEEtroit is 8-1 ATS against teams who give up 24 or more points a game and 7-1 ATS as outdoor faves. I’ll take the Lions experience. 

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I am looking here at the battle of Texas with the Dallas Cowboys at the Houston Texans. I think the game means a ton to both teams but the Texans sitting at 0-3 at home this is a must have for this franchise going against the hated Dallas Cowboys. Texans defense is light years better than the Cowboys and I think Houston has a big advantage at head coach as well. Texans top wide receiver should be coming back for this one Nico Collins look for him to have a huge game. 

Play on the Houston Texans lay the points rotation #260

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