Free Sports Picks of the Day

1* Free Pick on Steelers/Browns under 38½

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Cincinnati +7

The Cincinnati Bearcats are flying under the radar this season after losing QB Sorsby to Texas Tech.  Scott Satterfield is fighting for his job and the Bearcats are responding thus far with an impressive 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.

After beating Boston College 34-15 as 7-point favorites and Western Carolina 62-10 as 36.5-point favorites, the Bearcats suffered a bit of a letdown leading into Big 12 play.  They only beat Miami Ohio 35-31 as 15.5-point favorites on a neutral.  That's also a sneaky rivalry game that Miami gets up for every year.

The Bearcats proved they were for real with a 31-26 upset win as 6-point home dogs against Kansas State in their Big 12 opener last week.  There was nothing fluky about that win as the Bearcats put up 8.5 yards per play and rushed for 271 yards on the Wildcats.  They held K-State to 5.6 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.9 yards per play.  That's a K-State team that beat Washington State 34-7.

Arizona just played Washington State last week and was life and death in a 34-24 road victory as 10.5-point favorites.  The Wildcats fell to 0-4 ATS as they have been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They failed to cover against Northern Arizona and Northern Illinois, and they lost 28-17 at BYU as 6.5-point dogs.

The Wildcats have been without their best WR in Gio Richardson since the BYU game and he is questionable to return this week.  They have cluster injuries at TE and will be without Cole Rusk.  They also have cluster injuries at LB and safety defensively.  

That will make it difficult to contain this impressive Cincinnati rushing attack, which has produced 270 rushing yards per game and 6.5 per carry.  QB JC French is completing 74.5% of his passes with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt.  He is also proving to be a dual-threat with 164 rushing yards and 4 TD on the ground.

This line should be much closer to 3 than 7, so getting a full TD with the Bearcats is great value this week.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

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1* Free Play on Steelers/Browns under 38½ -110

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 10/1:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. Take the Tennessee Titans plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens. Tennessee (0-3) remains winless this season after their 12-7 loss on the road in New York against the Giants as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Titans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three games in a row. And while first-year head coach Robert Saleh has a 23-35 ATS mark in his head coaching career mostly with the New York Jets, those Jets teams covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games played in October which suggests his ability to make adjustments after the first month of the season. Baltimore (2-1) comes off a 34-31 last second victory against Dallas on Sunday in that game played in Brazil as a 3-point favorite. The Ravens return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored. Take Tennessee plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

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3* on under

Thursday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Braves -101

Ricky's 1* play on Under.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Under is 6-4 in the Aces  last 10 games.

- The Under is 5-2 in the Aces last 7 home games.

- The Under is 4-2 in the Aces last 6 home head to head meetings.

Verdict: Points should be hard to come by in this game.

1* NCAAF - N Texas/Tulsa FREE PICK on North Texas -1

1* Free Pick on Browns +3 -115

1* Free Pick on Steelers/Browns: under 38½

Neither of these teams has shown they can carry half of this number.

The Steelers are averaging 17.67 points through 3 games this season.

The Browns are at 18 even.

That's under 36 combined before you account for a Thursday night divisional grinder.

Pittsburgh's offense finally woke up Sunday against the Bengals, but that was one game.

Two weeks earlier they scored 3 points at New England.

Now they travel on 4 days' rest behind a rebuilt right side of the line.

Rookie Max Iheanachor just made his first NFL start at right tackle and guard Gennings Dunker is on IR with an MCL sprain.

Steelers back Rico Dowdle hasn't practiced this week either, so Jaylen Warren likely handles the whole load again.

Cleveland's side is worse.

Deshaun Watson was anything but efficient last week, Jerry Jeudy has zero catches in two straight games, and rookie KC Concepcion is averaging just 6.7 yards per reception.

This offense wins ugly.

Last week's 21-18 escape against Carolina needed a pick with 16 seconds left.

The Browns' line is a mess for a short week too.

Center Elgton Jenkins is in concussion protocol and unlikely to clear by Thursday, with Teven Jenkins and Tytus Howard both questionable.

That's a rough spot against T.J.

Watt.

Both defenses are the strength here.

Browns tackle Mason Graham leads all defensive tackles with 4 sacks through 3 games.

Last December these two played a 13-6 game in Cleveland.

Low-ceiling offenses, hurting offensive lines, short prep.

That points one direction.

I like the Under

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Arizona State -3.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Arizona State as 3.5-point home favorites over Baylor Saturday.  This will be a 10:30 EST kick and an electric atmosphere for a night game in Tempe.  The Sun Devils will be recharged and ready to go after a bye week following two grueling games against Texas A&M on the road and Kansas in London.  They split those games but deserved better against Texas A&M.  They held the Aggies to 255 yards and outgained them by 114 yards in a fluky final.  Baylor's 17-16 loss to Auburn in the opener doesn't look as good now as Auburn has struggled this season.  The 23-13 win over Colorado last week was misleading too as they were outgained by 26 yards by the Buffaloes, who were playing with a backup QB.  This will be Baylor's first true road game and their toughest game to date in my opinion.  Take Arizona State.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Steelers vs Browns under 38½ -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Virginia -2.5

The Florida State Seminoles are just not good.  Mike Norvell will be gone soon and the team knows it.  The 2-2 start this season has been alarmingly bad outside of the 14-point loss to Alabama, which they still gave up 567 yards and 8.6 per play.  Their 27-24 loss to SMU was a joke as they were outplayed badly giving up 585 yards and 8.7 per play to the Mustangs and should have lost by more, but were +3 in turnovers.  They only outgained New Mexico State by 100 yards in their 34-17 win as 31.5-point home favorites.  They only outgained Central Arkansas by 169 yards in their 34-7 win, not coming close to covering as 46.5-point favorites.  Virginia is proving its run to the ACC title game last year was no fluke, opening 3-1 this season with its only loss to West Virginia.  The Cavaliers covered the spread in their three other games beating NC State 34-8 and outgaining them by 245 yards.  They beat Norfolk State 59-3 as 46.5-point favorites and Delaware 42-3 as 19.5-point favorites.  We are getting the Cavaliers at a discount as only 2.5-point favorites against Florida State this week.  Give me Virginia.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Steelers vs Browns under 38½ -110

Triple Perfect NFL Thursday night TOP play up. Prime time games 5-0 on. We also have a PERFECT CFB Side and Early Season NHL. WNBA Comp play below

The WNBA Comp play is on Indiana plus the points. Game 3 home favorites in round 1 have not covered off a road dog and spread loss in game 2 and a home win and cover in game 1. The Fever have won 2 of 3 here in Las Vegas this season and should hang around for the cover here. Take the point with Indiana. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take the Over in Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska Cornhuskers (4 p.m., Saturday, October 3, FS1). We faded Maryland with last week’s free play, and the Terrapins delivered a rough performance in a 54-3 home loss to UCLA. That result has turned up the heat on their head coach, and we expect a better offensive effort this Saturday. The bigger concern remains Maryland’s defense, which surrendered 34 points to Virginia Tech before allowing 54 to UCLA. Nebraska has been piling up points, scoring 49, 56, 34, and 31 in its first four games of 2026. With the Cornhuskers rolling offensively and Maryland looking to respond, we like this matchup to go over the total. Back the Over. Don’t miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Card, featuring top plays in football, hockey, UFC, and soccer. Sign up now and put 54 years of handicapping experience to work for you!

Thursday I'm taking North Texas over Tulsa. North Texas has a high powered offense that will average 39.5 points and 516 total yards of offense per game. They'll also be averaging 342 passing yards per game which will be one of the highest totals in the nation. Tulsa has been good on defense but they've allowed 257 passing yards a game which North Texas will take advantage of.

They're also converting around 55% of their 3rd downs. This will allow them to move the ball against a Tulsa team that likes to play at a slower pace. North Texas has taken the last 3 meetings as well with the most recent being a 52-20 blowout.

As long as North Texas can protect their QB and not turn the ball over they have a very high chance of covering this number and winning the game.

UNDER 38.5

Neither offense deserves our trust to carry a total this low. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in offensive success rate, 30th in EPA per play and 29th in points per drive, while Cleveland also sits bottom 10 across all three categories. The Browns' offensive-line issues are especially concerning against a deep Steelers defensive front, while Cleveland has the pass rush to make an immobile Aaron Rodgers uncomfortable. I expect both teams to lean heavily on the ground game, keep the clock moving and avoid asking Rodgers/Watson to win this with 40 throws. This has all the ingredients for some good old-fashioned AFC North ugliness. Punts are people too. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the UNDER 38.5. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Thursday FREE NFL TOTAL Play

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Highmark Stadium gets the early window Sunday, and the number has already done the thing sharps hate. Patriots at Bills opened around Buffalo -3 and is now Bills -6.5, total 48.5, moneyline near -325. The play is Patriots +6.5.

Buffalo is 3-0 and the right side to win the game. They have scored 101 points and allowed 78, 33.7 and 26.0 per game, first and 21st. Yards are 401.7 a game, fourth. The point differential is +23, the margin of victory is 7.7, and the SRS is 0.9 on a soft schedule. Josh Allen is 56 of 86 for 786 yards, 5 passing touchdowns and 2 interceptions, a 65.1 percent completion rate, plus 119 rushing yards and 6 rushing scores on 23 non-kneel carries. That is 11 touchdowns in three weeks from one human. James Cook has 346 yards at 6.0 a carry. Dalton Kincaid has 14 catches for 263 yards. Offensive EPA per play is 0.228, second in the league, and the run game is first in EPA per rush. If you are betting the moneyline, stop reading and take Buffalo.

The spread is a different market. A model that has the Bills winning about 72 percent of the time projects this 27-20 and calls -6.5 a coin flip, 50 percent either way. You do not lay a key number for a coin flip. The line moved from -3 to -6.5 because New England looks broken on offense, and the market overshot the hook.

The Patriots are 1-2. They have scored 36 points and allowed 51, 12.0 and 17.0 per game, 31st and sixth. Yards gained are 307.0, 21st. Yards allowed are 278.3, fifth, including 170.0 passing yards allowed, second. Point differential is -15. Offensive EPA per play is -0.130, 28th. Drake Maye’s EPA per play is around -0.070, 28th among quarterbacks. Points per drive are 0.97, worst in the league. Their only win was a 20-point effort against Pittsburgh. The other two weeks they looked like a team that forgot the end zone existed. That part is not a mirage.

The part the number is ignoring is the other side of the ball. New England’s defense is 12th in EPA per play and fourth in EPA per dropback. Buffalo’s defense is 25th in yards allowed at 361.3, 27th in passing yards allowed at 254.3, and 25th in EPA per play. They allow 2.52 points per drive, 25th. After giving up 31 in each of the first two weeks, they had one cleaner game against the Chargers and the market treated it like a rebirth. It was one week. This defense still leaks, and a leaky defense against a bad offense is how dogs cover without ever leading.

Third downs tell the same story. Buffalo converts 54.5 percent, New England 32.5 percent. Buffalo has 13 touchdowns, New England has 3. Buffalo has 8 rushing scores. If Cook and Allen live in the red zone, the Patriots are not winning this. They do not have to. A 24-17 or 27-20 is a winner on +6.5 and a loser on the moneyline. Last 10 meetings between these two have gone over 7 times, which fits a Bills team that scores and a Bills defense that gives some of it back. Weather is a shrug. Cloudy, about 61 degrees, wind around 9. Not a lake-effect alibi.

Bet the road dog when an AFC East favorite opens at -3 and closes at -6.5 or higher. The dog’s record in that spot since the 2023 season: 9-5 (64.3 percent) against an average spread of 6.5. (+2.9 unit$, ROI=19.3%)

Bet the points when the home favorite allows 25 or more points per game and the total is 48.5 or lower. The dog’s record since the 2024 season: 14-9 (60.9 percent) against an average spread of 6.0. (+3.1 unit$, ROI=12.7%)

Bet the under when New England is on the road and scoring under 15 points per game. The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 6-3 (66.7 percent) with an average over/under of 43.5. (+2.1 unit$, ROI=21.0%)

That last one is a lean, not the card. The total at 48.5 is a pass. Buffalo can hang 30 by itself, and the series has been a fireworks show more often than a rock fight. The side is the bet.

The hold is obvious. If Allen runs in two more scores and Cook keeps ripping off 6.0 a carry, -6.5 is the correct side and this ticket is a donation to the Orchard Park gift shop. New England has one passing touchdown all year. One. A defense can only keep you close for so long when the offense is producing less than a point per drive. That is why this is one unit, juice no worse than -105. If the number drips back to +7, buy it. If it snaps to +5.5, you are late. Shop +6.5. Let the hook do the work.

Pick was recorded at +6.5 ---with +7 being even better. 

My selection is on Arizona over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While the Giants enter this game with the better overall record, I don't think there's any question it's the Cardinals that appear to have more upside through three weeks of the season. I really liked the fight Arizona showed in last week's loss but ATS cover on the road against the 49ers. Bettors wanted no part of the Cards after their blowout loss at home against Seattle in Week 2. Keep in mind, the Seahawks had extra time to prepare for that matchup after opening the season on a Wednesday. That's not to mention the fact that the Cards were in a clear letdown after pulling off a road upset of the Chargers in Week 1. The situation on offense is bad enough for the Giants that they elected to sign Vikings cast-off QB J.J. McCarthy. Last week's win over Tennessee had everything to do with the ineptness of the Titans and very little to do with New York's own crisp play. That was an ugly game all around that to put bluntly, someone had to win. While the Giants might have had a chance to compete this year with a healthy Jaxson Dart at quarterback, I fully expect them to quickly fall well back of the pack with Jameis Winston running what already looks like a broken offense (the fact that they're bent on featuring RB Cam Skattebo as the focal point is the biggest red flag). Take Arizona (8*).

1% GOLD RUSH on Steelers -2½

Free Play – Take UNDER 38.5 #101-02 Pittsburgh vs Cleveland (8:15 p.m. ET, Thursday, October 1)

Every team in the AFC North has a 2-1 record. Baltimore and Cincinnati, no real surprise. But Pittsburgh and Cleveland? Yeah, didn’t see that on the bingo card. Especially knowing the quarterbacks are Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson. On Thursday, this old rivalry is renewed, and one team will sport a 3-1 record. The last 10 confrontations have tended to be lower-scoring affairs, with the highest closing total at 43.5. This one is five points lower than that number from 2024. Rodgers and Watson are both off good games, but the oddsmakers presume the defenses and familiarity will curtail any possible QB advances. And on a short week, that could further keep the scoring down. In doing research, I came across the Steelers are 31-10 UNDER as a road fave and the Browns are10-2 UNDER at home after a win.

>NHL Totals Game of the Day! 66-32 run

FREE PLAY on Steelers/Browns over 38

PSP Data Driven 1* Browns.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The Browns are 4-2 ATS in the last 6 head to head meetings.

I am looking for a higher-scoring game than the books are looking for. Kerr is an opener, and Atlanta will have to go to their pen early. The Braves' pen has been great all season but couldn't hold the lead last night. Nola has been inconsistent this season. 

Play on the over 7.5. This is a FREE PLAY!

I am looking at the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at the New Mexico State Lobos. New Mexico State favored at home here but I think Western Kentucky is the much better squad. Western Kentucky a hard schedule out of the gate facing off with at Indiana and Georgia and at Nevada. Look for Western Kentucky to force New Mexico State into throwing the football. Western Kentucky has won and covered the last 2 head to head games look for them to get the job done for us on Thursday. 

Play on Western Kentucky plus the points rotation #103

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