Free Sports Picks of the Day

Recommended Bet: Ajax Amsterdam +110

1* Free Play on East Carolina/Memphis under 54½ -110

1* Free Pick on Patriots/Bears under 50½

3* on under

1* Free Pick on Patriots/Bears under 51 -110

Thursday's NBA Free Pick

PLAY ON: Nuggets +9.5

Featuring the NHL's top-ranked power play, Utah is fourth in goals scored. The Mammoth have produced four or more goals in seven of their 10 games.

More surprising than that is Seattle's offense. Having had 16 different goal scorers, the Kraken rank sixth in scoring. They have scored three or more goals in six consecutive games.  

Based on this and the team's recent history of being 5-0-1 to the Over during the past six meetings, I believe there will be more than six goals scored here.

The Mammoth have converted on 36.1% of its power play opportunities for a league-best 13 power play goals. Seattle ranks 25th in killing penalties and gives up the third most shots on goal in the league.

Utah is averaging six goals a game in its last four games vs. the Kraken.

PLAY TO: DENVER +8

JOKIC–MURRAY OFFENSE PRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE TO OKLAHOMA CITY'S DEFENSE

Denver opens its 2026-27 regular season against an Oklahoma City team coming off a 116-104 victory over San Antonio.

The Nuggets enter as substantial road underdogs despite possessing one of basketball's most productive offensive combinations in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

An independent computer projection forecasts Oklahoma City winning 118-113, creating a 3.5-point difference between its projected margin and the available Thunder -8.5 spread.

That discrepancy supports Denver, although the selection also requires examining personnel matchups, historical systems, roster changes and Oklahoma City's opening performance.

HISTORICAL SYSTEM — 65-44-3 ATS, 59.6%

Denver qualifies for the same historical opening-game situation that supports Cleveland.

The system identifies teams making their season debut against opponents playing their second regular-season game.

Historically, qualifying teams have compiled a 65-44-3 ATS record, covering 59.6% of graded decisions while producing approximately +16.6 units and a 13.8% ROI.

The historical average cover margin is approximately two points.

Denver is playing its first game, while Oklahoma City already defeated San Antonio on Tuesday.

The system provides supporting evidence, although its historical profitability has not been independently validated through out-of-sample testing.

NIKOLA JOKIC — DENVER'S MOST IMPORTANT MATCHUP ADVANTAGE

Jokic averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists last season while shooting 56.9% from the field.

His combination of scoring, rebounding and passing makes Denver unusually difficult to defend through conventional schemes.

Oklahoma City has several capable interior defenders, including Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and rookie Aday Mara.

Holmgren provides length, shot-blocking and mobility. Hartenstein offers physicality and rebounding, while Mara gives Oklahoma City another exceptionally tall defensive option.

However, Jokic creates a distinctly different challenge from Victor Wembanyama, whom Oklahoma City successfully contained Tuesday.

When opposing defenses aggressively double Jokic, he can exploit passing lanes and locate cutters or open perimeter shooters.

When opponents defend him individually, Jokic can attack favorable interior matchups.

His ability to manipulate defensive positioning also creates opportunities for Aaron Gordon around the basket.

Oklahoma City's depth provides defensive flexibility, but defending Jokic without compromising perimeter coverage is a demanding assignment.

JAMAL MURRAY AND DENVER'S PERIMETER OFFENSE

Murray averaged 25.4 points and 7.1 assists last season while shooting approximately 43.5% from three-point range.

His shooting creates substantial spacing around Jokic.

The Jokic–Murray two-man game remains particularly difficult to defend because both players can score or create opportunities for teammates.

Oklahoma City can counter with Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams in various defensive combinations.

Those defenders provide the Thunder with legitimate advantages in perimeter pressure and defensive versatility.

Nevertheless, Murray's shooting and Jokic's passing give Denver multiple ways to respond to aggressive coverage.

DENVER'S OFFSEASON ADDITIONS

Denver added DeMar DeRozan, providing another established offensive creator.

DeRozan averaged approximately 18.4 points last season and remains particularly effective generating offense from intermediate distances.

His presence could help Denver maintain offensive production when Murray or Jokic rests.

However, incorporating DeRozan also introduces questions involving ball distribution and spacing.

Denver additionally added Marvin Bagley III and Cam Whitmore, while losing several established contributors.

Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown and Jonas Valanciunas are no longer with the Nuggets.

Those departures create legitimate concerns about defensive continuity and reserve production.

Julian Strawther is also unavailable tonight because of a knee injury, reducing Denver's established bench shooting depth.

Spencer Jones remains questionable.

These concerns prevent the Nuggets from receiving a premium rating despite the projected spread advantage.

OKLAHOMA CITY'S OPENING VICTORY — DECEPTIVE SHOOTING STATISTICS

Oklahoma City defeated San Antonio 116-104 Tuesday, building a 26-point advantage before the Spurs mounted a second-half comeback.

The Thunder shot 45.2% from three-point range, converting 14 of 31 attempts.

However, reserve guard Jared McCain accounted for six of those 14 successful three-pointers.

McCain finished with 20 points in approximately 22 minutes, making six of eight shots from beyond the arc.

Without McCain's extraordinary performance, Oklahoma City's remaining players shot eight of 23 from three-point range, approximately 34.8%.

This distinction is important because the Thunder's overall perimeter efficiency was heavily influenced by one player's exceptional shooting performance.

McCain has legitimate offensive ability, but expecting another 75% three-point shooting performance would be unreasonable.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander also delivered an outstanding performance, scoring 32 points with six rebounds, four assists, three steals and three blocked shots.

He remains a significant concern for Denver's perimeter defense.

The Nuggets must account for his ability to penetrate, draw defensive attention and create scoring opportunities for teammates.

Oklahoma City also possesses substantial defensive depth and finished last season with the league's best defensive rating.

Those strengths make the Thunder deserving favorites, but the question is whether they deserve to be favored by more than eight points against Denver's established offensive personnel.

INDEPENDENT PROJECTIONS — MULTIPLE MODELS FAVOR DENVER AGAINST THE SPREAD

One independent projection forecasts Oklahoma City winning 118-113, a five-point margin.

Another projects approximately Oklahoma City 120, Denver 114, a six-point margin.

A third forecasts a seven-point Oklahoma City victory.

These projections disagree about the precise outcome but consistently place the expected winning margin below the available 8.5-point spread.

That provides supporting evidence for Denver.

However, our proprietary NBA Fair Line model has not yet completed historical calibration, and these third-party projections should not be represented as its independent output.

PUBLIC BETTING — A SIGNIFICANT WARNING

The strongest objection to Denver comes from public betting information.

Action Network reports approximately 63% of spread tickets supporting Denver.

Covers reports approximately 59%.

Both sources independently identify Denver as the majority-public side.

That makes Oklahoma City the contrarian position.

Under our handicapping framework, fading publicly supported underdogs deserves particular attention.

Denver's substantial projected spread value and historical system support are therefore offset by unfavorable contrarian evidence.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Oklahoma City opened around -7.5 and has been quoted between -7.5 and -8.5.

The movement toward Oklahoma City is modest and does not reach our usual two-point threshold for significant NBA spread movement.

At +8.5, Denver offers more protection than at the opening number.

At +7.5, the selection becomes less attractive, particularly given the public betting concerns.

NBA LUCK FACTOR

Denver has not played a regular-season game, and Oklahoma City has played only one.

Neither team has accumulated sufficient current-season information to establish reliable scoring-luck or win-conversion-luck measurements.

Accordingly, Luck Factor receives no meaningful handicapping weight.

Oklahoma City's exceptional three-point shooting against San Antonio is a legitimate regression consideration, but one game cannot establish a statistically reliable team Luck Factor.

FINAL HANDICAPPING ASSESSMENT

Denver offers an intriguing combination of historical system support, multiple independent projections favoring the Nuggets against the spread and an offensive foundation capable of challenging Oklahoma City's outstanding defense.

Jokic's exceptional passing and Murray's perimeter shooting provide Denver with legitimate answers to aggressive defensive pressure.

The Nuggets also benefit from receiving more than eight points despite possessing a roster built around two established offensive stars.

Nevertheless, Oklahoma City's defensive superiority, superior established depth, Denver's offseason personnel losses and corroborated majority-public support for the Nuggets prevent this selection from qualifying as a premium play.

The projected spread advantage is meaningful but not overwhelming, and the historical system has not undergone independent out-of-sample validation.

FREE PLAY — DENVER +8.5 over OKLAHOMA CITY — 9:30 ET

PLAY TO: DENVER +8

1* Free Pick on Patriots +3

The line says Chicago is the better team.

The season says otherwise, and the matchup detail that should scare you off the Patriots doesn't hold up.

New England is 4-2 and has won 4 of its last 5, averaging 25.2 points a game over that stretch.

Drake Maye threw 3 touchdown passes in Sunday's 26-19 win over the Jets, and A.J.

Brown is back in the lineup after missing four games.

Chicago is also 4-2, but the profile is softer.

The Bears are averaging just 18.2 points over their last 5 and got run off the field 31-7 in Green Bay two weeks ago.

The obvious concern is New England's offensive line.

Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown are both doubtful, Morgan Moses is questionable, and Mike Vrabel admitted "I think that Caleb will have to be ready to go at multiple positions."

Here's why that concern is overpriced: Chicago can't make them pay.

Montez Sweat is suspended through Week 7, and Dayo Odeyingbo, second on the team with 3 sacks, just went on IR.

The two best edge rushers on this roster are watching from home.

Backup guards against a gutted pass rush is a survivable spot.

Caleb Williams looked sharp in his return against Atlanta, but he now faces Christian Gonzalez and a Patriots secondary that has been the strength of this team, on a short week, against a better opponent than the Falcons.

Getting a field goal with the team playing better football is the value side.

I like the Patriots

Rocketman Sports FREE CFB play Thursday 10-22-26

Liberty @ Kennesaw State  (7:00 PM EST)
Play On:  Kennesaw State +9 1/2

The Liberty Flames travel to Kennesaw State to take on the Owls on Thursday night.  Liberty is 5-1 SU overall this year while Kennesaw State comes in with a 1-5 SU overall record on the season.  Kennesaw State is allowing only 19.3 points per game at home this year.  Kennesaw State is 8-1 ATS last 3 years at home against conference opponents.  Kennesaw State is 5-0 ATS last 3 years at home against teams with a winning record.  Kennesaw State is 6-0 ATS last 6 games as a home underdog.  Bet against - A road team - excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. System applies to: Liberty. System's record since 2022: 41-17 (70.7%). Kennesaw State is 3-0 SU last 3 meetings overall in this series.  We'll recommend a small play on Kennesaw State tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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1* Free Sharp Play on Alebrijes de Oaxaca +122

Thursday Card led by the NBA Masterpiece Collection side NBA OFF FAST 2-0, the Thursday night CFB Game of the Year from a 17-0 system and an NFL Perfect totals system. NHL Comp play below

The NHL Comp play for Thursday is on the St. Louis Blues at 8:10 eastern. A nice early season NHL Database system takes center stage here tonight as Rob see that Game 25 or earlier road favorites that allowed 6+ goals at home do not bounce back well vs .450 or better home teams that are off a home win. The Blues have done well thus far considering they have opened up with 6 of the first 9 on the road. In their home games they have 2 wins and an OT Loss. Vegas is just 1-4 as a road favorite off a home loss and an even worse 0-5 on the road after allowing 6+ goals at home with rest. Play on the Blues tonight. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take #387 Michigan State Spartans over UCLA Bruins (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 24, CBS)

UCLA has been a pleasant surprise in the Big Ten this season, standing as the only unbeaten team in either the Big Ten or SEC. Still, this is a hefty number to lay with a backup quarterback. The Bruins were one-dimensional against Wisconsin, and I expect Michigan State to make running the football difficult again.

The Spartans are rebuilding under a new coach, but they’ve shown they can compete, taking Illinois and Northwestern down to the wire. I expect another competitive effort here, with Michigan State keeping the final margin within 7–10 points.

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OVER 53.5

Detroit's offense is averaging nearly 33 PPG and Goff has been surgical with 12 TD passes and zero turnovers. Now he gets an extra week to prepare for a Green Bay defense whose recent improvement came against backup QBs and a struggling Dallas attack. That's a different assignment than dealing with this Lions offense. The problem for Detroit? Its defense is surrendering more than 400 yards per game, giving Love and Green Bay plenty of opportunities to answer. With Jacobs expected back, the Packers have another weapon to keep the scoreboard moving. This one has shootout written all over it. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER 53.5. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL O/U Play

The current run has been strong. 4-1 on NFL last week. A BIG Card is going up for this weekend, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

The Bruins are 7-2-1 and have already shown they can separate at home (3-1-0). Nashville is 3-2-3, collecting points but still short on regulation wins and five-on-five consistency. The market is pricing the building more than the actual gap. A short home favorite against a team still finding its game is only a tax if the number gets fat. This one has not.

Boston is scoring roughly 3.4–3.6 goals per game and allowing about 2.2. Nashville is scoring 2.88 and allowing 2.75. The Bruins’ power play has been converting in the low-to-mid 20s. The Predators’ penalty kill sits around 85 percent early, but their five-on-five underlying numbers have lagged (expected goal share in the mid-40s in some samples). Boston’s five-on-five share has leaned their way. The building is the rest of the argument.

Bet the home team of 3 or fewer points in the moneyline when the opponent is under .500 through 10 games.

The home side’s record in that spot since the early 2010s: 41-27 (60.3%). At -110, 41 wins and 27 losses is +11.3 units, ROI = 16.6%. Boston is 7-2-1. Nashville is 3-2-3. The number is short. That is the exact look.

Bet the home favorite of -150 or shorter when the road team has allowed more than 3.0 goals per game (or sits near that threshold with uneven form).

The favorite’s record since 2015: 29-18 (61.7%). At -150, that is +4.7 units, ROI = 10.0%. Nashville’s early goals-against numbers have fluctuated but have not shown the sustained defensive consistency of the better clubs. Boston is the short home side. The juice is the filter. Shop it. If it walks past -165, leave it.

Additional matchup edges reinforce the spot. Jeremy Swayman has been excellent (roughly .928 save percentage, sub-2.00 GAA in his starts). Juuse Saros has been solid but more ordinary (.906, ~2.82 GAA). Boston is coming off a productive road trip that banked seven of eight points before an overtime loss in Dallas. Nashville is beginning a three-game road trip after a brief break and has a 1-0-2 road record so far. Recent head-to-head results are mixed (Predators took the last meeting 6-3 in Nashville in March 2026; Bruins won in overtime earlier that season), but the current form and venue favor the home side. Special-teams matchup is closer than the original read, yet Boston’s overall defensive structure and goaltending edge remain clear.

The crease is the last check. A backup in Boston changes little. A backup in Nashville does. The house does not care that one club is still under .500. The points are already on the sheet. The price is the rest.

My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over San Francisco at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We cashed a ticket fading the 49ers on Monday Night Football as they won but failed to cover against the Commanders. Still undefeated on the season, I think the Niners are ripe for the 'upset' as they head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta is coming off a tough home loss to the Bears last week. That marked its second straight loss both SU and ATS and it has quickly fallen out of favor with most bettors following a brief surge that saw it win consecutive primetime games in Green Bay and New Orleans. I still think the Falcons are a good team with plenty of weapons on offense and a competitive defense led by an underrated coordinator in Jeff Ulbrich. Look for the Falcons to scheme up a gameplan to take San Francisco down to the wire at the very least on Sunday, noting that this will only be the Niners second true road game of the season (they won the other by a field goal in Seattle two weeks ago). Take Atlanta (8*).

Sharks vs Senators NHL Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Ottawa Senators are coming off an emotional 5-1 rout of Florida in Brady Tkachuk's much-hyped return, and now they have to turn around on the second night of a back-to-back. That's a classic letdown spot, and Ottawa will likely give Linus Ullmark the night off in favor of Samuel Ersson, who owns a .884 career save percentage.

The San Jose Sharks arrive with confidence after an overtime win in Montreal. Macklin Celebrini has five goals in eight games, the power play is converting at 24.2%, and Alex Nedeljkovic has been sharp in net.

The Bet: Sharks ML (3%): 

Ricky's 1* play on VAN.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Red Wings are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games.

- The Canucks are 4-2 ATS in the last 6 head to head meetings.

- The Red Wings are 0-3 ATS in their last 3  road games.

Verdict: The value is on the home Underdog.

Marc David's NHL Free Pick

We really like under in this matchup. The Florida Panthers (5-3-2) arrive in Pittsburgh on the second night of a back-to-back after last night’s loss in Ottawa, and they’re still playing shorthanded. Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, MacKenzie Entwistle and Jonah Gadjovich are all on IR, and Gustav Forsling is day-to-day. Tired legs and a thin lineup don’t usually produce a track meet, and only four of Florida’s 10 games have cleared 6.5 goals.

The Pittsburgh Penguins (3-6-1) are stuck in a four-game losing streak and searching for answers. They’ve also struggled as favorites, dropping both games this season when the market priced them that way.

A fatigued, depleted Panthers team against a Penguins group fighting just to find a win sets up a tighter, lower-scoring game than this number suggests.

This is a FREE PLAY on the UNDER. 

1% GOLD RUSH on Bears -3

Free Play – Take #504 Chicago -3 over New England (8:15 p.m. ET, Thursday, October 22)

Been reading a lot about New England’s dramatic defensive advantage against the Bears. Granted, when you see how easily the Packers torched the Chicago secondary in destroying them 31-7, that’s hard to forget. Yet, on the season, the Patriots are #7 in total defense, with the Bears #8. Plus, the difference in pass defense is 2.8 YPG between the combatants, with the Pats holding a slight edge. With Caleb Williams back, Chicago has a more explosive element in the passing game to go along with the #1 rushing offense. QB Drake Maye has figured out his early-season woes, and New England has averaged 33.3 PPG in their last three outings. Nonetheless, Coach Vrabel’s O-Line had three starters injured last week, but the line did a good job last week with so many backups playing where needed. Having to do this on the road might be a different talk on a short week. For me, this is the swing element of the game, where Da Bears defense causes problems with different looks on running downs, while using exotic blitzes to create confusion in passing protection. The home team by 7.

>CFB Thursday Night Thunder Winner! 19-8 Run

>NHL Thursday 85.7% Spot Play Winner! 8-3 Start

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FREE PLAY on Patriots +3

PSP Data Driven 1* Bears.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Both teams are coming off a loss. The Florida Panthers are 5-3-2 this season. Jacob Markstrom is 3-1-1 with a 2.21 GAA and an .897 save percentage. Akira Schmid is 2-1-1 with a 3.25 GAA and an .878 save percentage. The Pittsburgh Penguins are 3-6-1 this season and have lost four in a row. Arturs Silovs is 3-3-0 with a 3.51 GAA and an .866 save percentage. Sergei Murashov is 0-3-1 with a 3.50 GAA and an .883 save percentage. Florida is on the second game of a back-to-back. The Panthers have the better goalie and have been struggling. Take the Panthers at this price,

Play on Florida. This is a FREE play.

For my best free pick on the board here for Thursday I am looking at the Kennesaw State Owls hosting the Liberty Flames. Liberty 5-a facing off with 1-5 Kennesaw but these teams do have identical ATS marks. Kennesaw very well coached and I think they can keep this game within 7 points here on Thursday night. Bettors should flock to Liberty but me I love me a home dog on a Thursday night. 

Play on Kennesaw State plus the points rotation #416

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