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Friday’s Free Winner: Florida State Seminoles.

Game 317.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

I think this is a very strange line that gives the underdog a lot of value here. FSU enters this matchup with confidence knowing they took the last two meetings against Louisville, both straight up and against the number. Granted, the last time these two rivals met was December 2023. But this season they’re coming into this matchup with very different points of view. The Seminoles come off back-to-back victories, which includes last week ‘s home win as a small underdog against Virginia, 38-7. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have dropped back-to-back games to the Demon Deacons and the Wolfpack, both games they were favored. It’s true, Florida State has a matchup on the road in eight days against Miami. But I doubt this team will be in a look ahead situation. They are focused and taking each game one at a time. They are scoring points with an equally balanced passing and rushing attacks. Their defense has played very well yielding just 21.6 PPG and are monsters against the run. Yes, Louisville accounts for more points and is pretty darn good both in the air as well as on the ground, offensively. But their defense is so bad, yielding 29.2 points per game, and getting steamrolled on the ground and beaten badly in the air. I feel the Seminoles will establish the ground game, move the chains, eat up the clock, which will allow their passing game to open up. They have a very smart head coach, who knows how to set a gameplan. I just feel this is too many points to give a very game and hot visitor. Take Florida State. Thank you.

Florida State plus the points is the Friday number worth taking. The Seminoles are getting 3.5 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville is laying that field goal at about -110, and the moneyline is sitting around +150. Kickoff is 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Cardinals opened 7.5. The market has bet four points off that number. That is not noise. That is the board telling you the opener was a tax.

Louisville is 2-3, 1-2 in the ACC, and the results do not look like a team that should be laying anything. They lost to Ole Miss 38-41 in Nashville, beat Villanova 59-13, beat SMU 41-31, then lost at home to Wake Forest 27-30 and lost at North Carolina State 28-31. Three of the four games against real competition finished by a field goal. The other one, the SMU win, finished by 10. A club whose serious games live inside a score is not a clean 7.5, and it is barely a 3.5. Home record is 2-1. Road and neutral is 0-2. The only road trip of October was a three-point loss in Raleigh.

The offense is why the total is 59.5 and why people want to lay the favorite. Through five games Louisville has scored 193 points, 38.6 a game, and allowed 146, 29.2. They have rushed for 993 yards on 177 carries, 5.61 a pop, with 15 rushing scores. The pass game is 101 of 146 for 1,437 yards, 10 touchdowns and one interception, a 173.08 rating. That is 7.52 yards a play against 5.79 for the opponents. Third down is 26 of 57, 45.6 percent. Red zone is 15 of 18. Those are real numbers. They are also the numbers of a team that still found a way to lose three games by a combined 9 points. Scoring is not the same thing as covering.

Florida State is 3-2, 1-1 in the ACC, and the sheet is less pretty than the record. They beat New Mexico State 34-17, lost to SMU 24-27, lost at Alabama 36-50, beat Central Arkansas 34-7, and just beat Virginia 38-7. Sports-reference.com and the season line have them at 419 yards a game, 53rd nationally, with 194 on the ground and 225 through the air. They are scoring 33.2. The defense is the wart. They are allowing 384.8 yards a game, 103rd, and 265.6 through the air, 127th. Rush defense is fine, 119.2 a game. The pass defense is how a 59.5 gets posted on a Friday night in Louisville. Seven turnovers against three takeaways is the other wart. This is not a complete team. It is a team getting a field goal against a 2-3 host.

The road skid is the objection, and it is a real one. Florida State has not won away from Doak since 2023. The streak is at 10. The only road game this year was Tuscaloosa, a 14-point loss to Alabama in which they still covered a number in the high teens. That is 0-1 straight up on the road and 1-0 against the spread. A decade of road pain is why they are a dog. It is not a reason to lay 3.5 with a team that just lost by three at home to Wake and by three on the road to NC State. One-score games are how dogs cash. Louisville has been playing one-score games with everybody who is not Villanova.

Bet Florida State plus the points as a road dog after the spread has moved at least three points in their direction. The Seminoles' record in road games this season: 0-1 straight up, 1-0 against the spread. The only game was Alabama, a 36-50 loss that stayed inside an 18.5-point number. One game is not a system. It is the only road page on the sheet, and the ticket cashed.

Bet against Louisville laying more than a field goal at home in a game against an ACC opponent. The Cardinals' record in home games decided by a score this season: 1-1, a 10-point win over SMU and a 3-point loss to Wake Forest. Average margin in those two: 3.5. The number on Friday is 3.5. They have already played the margin they are being asked to cover.

The total is the trap for anyone who reads the yardage and stops. Louisville has gone over in four of five. Florida State has stayed under in four of five, including a 38-7 win over Virginia that finished under 51.5. Two teams, two different totals profiles, a 59.5 sitting in the middle. Pass it. The bet is the side. Shop +3.5. If the hook disappears and it is +3, the moneyline at +150 is the cleaner ticket. A push is how Friday favorites steal a week.

Marc David's NHL Free Pick

We really like favorite in this matchup. The Golden Knights (3-1-0) have won two straight on the road, including a 6-2 rout in Seattle, and return home having outscored opponents 17-10. Their scoring has come in bunches, with five or more goals in two of their four games.

The Maple Leafs (2-2-0) played their first four at home and are just even in goals at 11-11. Three of those four were decided by one goal, and they've been outscored 10-8 at even strength. This is their first road game of the season.

Vegas is deeper and more dangerous offensively, and Toronto hasn't shown they can separate from anyone

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