Free Sports Picks of the Day

1* Free Pick on Broncos -2½

[1%] Free Play on Spurs -2½ -110

3* on Raiders

1* NFL - Cardinals/Seahawks FREE PICK on Cardinals +8.5

1* Free Pick on Falcons +3

This is a classic recency bias spot, and the price shows it.

The market watched Michael Penix throw 4 picks in a rainstorm in Tampa last week and Joe Burrow hang 462 yards and 5 touchdowns on the Titans. Those two vivid results are setting this number more than the actual matchups are.

Start with the Penix game. He came into that afternoon with 1 interception through his first five games, then played in conditions bad enough that he completed a third of his passes. That is an outlier, not a trend.

Now the other side of it. Cincinnati is 5-2, but they needed overtime at home to get past a Titans offense that had been dormant all year, giving up 36 points in the process. Over their last 5 they are allowing 25 a game. Kyle Dugger stays out at safety, which thins a secondary Kyle Pitts and Drake London will test.

Atlanta is getting healthier at the right time. Avieon Terrell is back at corner, Billy Bowman logged a full practice and is on track to play, and James Pearce Jr. was reinstated this week to add juice off the edge. Bijan Robinson is still averaging 5.2 yards a carry and sits at 983 yards from scrimmage.

This game is in Madrid, so both teams make the same transatlantic trip. Yet the number treats Atlanta like a true road dog against an elite team. They are not. The Bengals win shootouts because they have to, and a field goal plus a plus-money tag is too much to pass up here.

Give me the Falcons +3 (+102) against the Bengals in Madrid.

1* FREE INFO PLAY Butler +2½ -110

SUNDAY TOP RED ZONE Side Play goes early along with TOP Totals plays and Sunday night Football. Early Season NBA AND College Hoops power system plays up too. Comp play below

The NFL comp play is on The LA Chargers plus the points we also like the under here. Game 470 at 4 eastern. Rob notes that Game 8 home dogs of 4 or more are perfect to the spread if they are winless. Houston is just 2-5 and lost at home as a 10 point favorite to the Giants. Look for a better effort here from the Chargers who get the cover. GL Rob V-

Falcons +3.5

Atlanta is in a bounce back spot against the Bengals on Sunday as these two teams head to Madrid. It was a pathetic loss by the Falcons last week in Tampa, as they dealt with monsoon conditions and couldn't stop the run game. This team is far better than what they showcased and they take on a Bengals team that has been up and down this year. Cincinnati's defense has been a struggle so far and we saw the Titans torch them last week. Cincinnati continues to battle injuries to key defensive players and they're going to struggle against Penix and Bijan Robinson's rushing attack. The Falcons will continue to wear down the Bengals as this game goes on. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the FALCONS ATS. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. 13 Massive plays loaded for SAT/SUN. A BIG 8× Play Card is up for SAT, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.” 

Cincinnati enters this international matchup at 5-2 while averaging 29.4 points per game, ranking among the league’s highest-scoring offenses. Atlanta sits at 3-5 and has allowed 23.6 points per game, a mid-pack figure that has not consistently contained high-efficiency passing attacks. The total sits at 52.5, the highest number on the Sunday slate, after climbing from the open. On a neutral floor in Madrid, both systems lean toward volume rather than sustained defensive control.

Cincinnati’s offense generates volume through the air while converting at a high rate on third downs. The Bengals rank near the top of the league in points scored and have produced multiple 30-plus-point outings in recent weeks, including a 43-36 overtime result against Tennessee. Their defense ranks in the middle of the league in points allowed and has shown the ability to create pressure, yet it has not shut down opposing offenses for full games. Atlanta’s offense leans on a strong ground game but ranks well down the list in points scored and third-down conversion. The Falcons’ defense sits near the middle in points allowed and has not produced the sustained stops required against top-tier passing attacks. When one side ranks near the top in scoring efficiency and the other ranks in the middle in points allowed, the combined total has historically climbed above elevated numbers more often than not. The international setting removes typical home-field variables and places both teams in a neutral environment where pace and efficiency tend to dictate the outcome.

Joe Burrow has thrown for more than 2,100 yards with 20 touchdowns through seven games, operating with high completion percentage and yards per attempt. He is flanked by Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, both of whom have produced consistent volume and explosive plays. That group forces defenses to commit extra attention to the primary targets, which opens secondary scoring. Michael Penix Jr. has been less consistent for Atlanta, and the Falcons’ supporting cast has not matched Cincinnati’s top-end production through the air. Bijan Robinson provides a clear individual advantage on the ground for Atlanta, yet the overall offensive structure has not sustained high-efficiency drives against better defenses. When the favored side’s primary quarterback is healthy and clicking and the opposing defense ranks in the middle of the league in points allowed, the margin of scoring tends to land in higher ranges. Both teams’ primary creators can occupy the ball for stretches, but Cincinnati’s supporting cast has shown greater reliability in recent weeks.

Cincinnati has gone over the total in multiple recent games, including the 79-point overtime result against Tennessee and the 48-point win over Baltimore. Atlanta’s results have shown more variance, with under results in some lower-scoring games and over results when facing stronger offenses. Historical meetings between these two have produced mixed totals, yet the current form of Cincinnati’s offense shifts the equation. League-wide, elevated totals in the low 50s have gone over at a solid rate when one team ranks near the top in points scored and the other ranks in the middle in points allowed. Early-season overs have also held in international or neutral-site environments where both teams play at a moderate-to-high pace. The combination of Cincinnati’s recent scoring output, Atlanta’s mid-tier defensive profile, and the elevated total makes the over the cleaner side of the number.

Key Smart Intelligence Formula
(Bengals points per game + Falcons points allowed per game) + (Falcons points per game + Bengals points allowed per game) ÷ 2
(29.4 + 23.6) + (21.4 + 22.6) ÷ 2 = 48.5 projected combined average.

Recent Cincinnati scoring (multiple 30-plus-point games) and the upward movement of the total push the practical projection above the posted 52.5. The Bengals should control stretches of the game and push the score into a higher range than the number suggests. Confirm the final total closer to kickoff.

My selection is on Edmonton -1.5 goals over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Saturday.

It's been a tough week for the Oilers as they dropped a 4-3 shootout decision on the road against New Jersey before falling 5-4 at home against surging Anaheim on Thursday. I look for Edmonton to bounce back on Saturday as it hosts the lowly Canucks. Vancouver has lost four straight games and things only seem to be getting worse as they were handed a 6-2 loss in Winnipeg on Thursday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a worse team than Vancouver right now which is pretty much what was expected for this rebuilding franchise. You may remember the Canucks did give the Oilers all they could handle in a home-and-home set to open the season, even stealing a 6-5 overtime victory here in Edmonton. I don't expect this one to be nearly as close as the Oilers take out their recent frustrations. Take Edmonton -1.5 goals (8*).

1*

1% GOLD RUSH on Falcons +3