Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Cardinals -130

Free Total Annihilator On Dodgers vs Reds under 8 -115

1* Free Pick on Broncos/Chiefs over 43½

Ricky's 1* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- David Peterson is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts for the Cubs.

- The over is 4-1 in the Braves last 5 games.

- Reynaldo Lopez is 3-1 in his last 4 starts for the Braves.

Verdict: We should see plenty of Runs in this game.

Jack's Free Pick Monday: New York Yankees -119

The New York Yankees have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall and are going through their best offensive stretch of the season right now.  They have scored 5 runs or more in nine of their last 14 games overall amidst the returns of Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger.

The Twins are all but eliminated now 6 games back in the AL Central at 70-79 on the season.  They are playing like it going 3-7 in their last 10 games overall.  Offense has been a big problem scoring 4 runs or fewer in seven consecutive games while averaging just 2.6 runs per game during this stretch.  They are dealing with injuries including Byron Buxton being out for the season.

The Yankees should stay hot at the plate against Dean Kremer, who is 3-5 with a 5.65 ERA in 14 starts this season while allowing 45 earned runs and 16 homers in 71 2/3 innings.  Kremer is 2-2 with a 5.23 ERA in eight career home starts against the Yankees.

Will Warren is 10-6 with a 3.98 ERA in 27 starts and two relief appearances this season.  Warren has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in four consecutive starts.  He held the Twins to 2 earned runs and 3 base runners in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-2 victory in his last start against them.  Bet the Yankees Monday.

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1* Free Play on Broncos/Chiefs under 43½ -110

FREE PLAY — DENVER +2.5 over KANSAS CITY — 8:15 ET

Denver catching the full field goal is attractive because the Broncos have a legitimate chance to be the better team in the areas most likely to decide this game: the line of scrimmage, quarterback protection and defensive pressure.

A top NFL organic handicapper has Denver +3 as one of his positions tonight, and his underlying argument is compelling: Denver may own the trench advantage on both sides of the football. The number matters. Kansas City opened around -2.5 and has been pushed to -3, giving us the key field goal rather than asking us to chase the move toward the Chiefs. Current market pricing has Kansas City -3 with a total around 42.5. 

The most significant matchup is Denver's pass rush against Kansas City's offensive line. Starting Chiefs left tackle Josh Simmons has officially been ruled OUT with a back injury after failing to practice all week. Kansas City is expected to turn to undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson at left tackle. That is a brutal assignment against a Denver defense that led the NFL with 68 sacks last season. 

This isn't simply a matter of replacing one offensive lineman with another. Left tackle protects Patrick Mahomes' blind side, and Denver can attack that replacement without necessarily compromising its coverage structure by blitzing recklessly. If Kansas City has to give Benson help with a tight end or running back, Denver has effectively removed an eligible receiver from portions of the route concept. If the Chiefs leave him isolated, the Broncos can test an inexperienced tackle against one of football's premier pressure packages.

The timing could hardly be better for Denver because Mahomes is playing his first game since tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee approximately nine months ago. He practiced fully and carries no injury designation, so this isn't a wager based on Mahomes being physically unable to play. The question is whether he immediately possesses his customary movement and improvisational ability in his first live game since the injury. Mahomes did not play in the preseason. 

That distinction is critical against Denver. Mahomes at his best can neutralize pressure by escaping, changing launch points and extending plays until coverage breaks down. Asking him to immediately reproduce that mobility behind an undrafted rookie left tackle against this pass rush is considerably different from facing a conventional pocket defense.

Denver also arrives exceptionally healthy. Marvin Mims Jr. was the only Bronco listed on the final injury report, and he practiced fully throughout the week with no game designation. Kansas City, meanwhile, has ruled out Simmons and defensive back Chamarri Conner. Chris Jones missed Saturday's practice with a calf issue, although Andy Reid characterized the absence as precautionary and Jones carries no game designation. L'Jarius Sneed was limited Saturday with a knee issue but is also expected to play. 

Denver's offense is considerably more dangerous than the version Kansas City has traditionally been able to squeeze. Bo Nix has another year in Sean Payton's system, and Denver added Jaylen Waddle to provide the explosive receiving dimension the offense needed. That combination gives Payton more ways to attack a Kansas City secondary undergoing significant transition.

The Chiefs' secondary has been revamped with new starters and rookies, while Conner's absence removes another defensive back from the rotation. Denver doesn't need Nix to outduel Mahomes statistically. It needs him to avoid turnovers, exploit favorable matchups when they appear and allow Denver's defense to keep the game inside one possession.

There is also a meaningful motivational component. Denver went 14-3 last season and won the AFC West while Kansas City collapsed to 6-11 and missed the playoffs. This isn't the old situation in which the Broncos arrive at Arrowhead hoping merely to survive Mahomes and the perennial division champion. Denver enters as the defending division champion, and the organization has openly described this opener as carrying heightened urgency. 

The low total strengthens the value of +3. At roughly 42.5, the market itself anticipates a relatively low-scoring game. Each point becomes more valuable as expected scoring decreases. A 20-17 or 21-20 type of game puts the full field goal directly into play, and Denver's defensive strength gives the Broncos multiple paths to remain within one possession even if Kansas City ultimately wins.

The matchup therefore does not require the aggressive proposition that Denver is clearly superior to Kansas City. We are getting a field goal with a 14-win defending division champion that has the healthier roster, an elite pass rush facing an undrafted rookie left tackle, an improving offense and respected sharp support.

The most important issue is price discipline. DENVER +3 is the wager. The move from Kansas City -2.5 to -3 has created the number we want rather than one we should fear.

BETTING PARAMETERS: Take DENVER +2.5. At +3 with reasonable juice up to approximately -120, it remains playable. 

Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara has a career-low in strikeouts per nine innings and has pitched worse on the road with a 4.36 ERA. 

The Diamondbacks are averaging nearly 5 runs per game during their last six games and have slightly above average offensive stats when playing at home. 

I'm not expecting much from Arizona starter Corbin Burnes in just his second appearance of the season. The Marlins have the seventh highest road batting average. 

The Marlins also are averaging 6.2 runs during their last eight games. 

Monday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Cubs -128 

1* Free Pick on Broncos/Chiefs: over 43½

Kansas City averaged 15 points a game over its final 8 contests last season, and the last meeting with Denver produced a 20-13 Broncos win on Christmas.

Those two numbers are doing all the work holding this total at 43.5.

Both are misleading.

Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in Week 15 last season, so that entire cold stretch, including the Christmas game, came without him.

He's back Monday with Rashee Rice healthy, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, and Kenneth Walker III installed as a three-down back.

The best case against this over is real and worth stating plainly: Denver led the league with 68 sacks last season, and Mahomes will wear a knee brace behind a line starting undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson at left tackle with Josh Simmons out.

But pressure cuts both ways on a total.

Sacks and hurried throws create turnovers and short fields, which add possessions and points.

And Mahomes has built a career on beating pressure with quick releases.

The sacks crushed KC's scoring late last year because backup quarterbacks were absorbing them.

Denver's side carries its own weight.

The Broncos averaged 23 points over their final 8 games last season, then added Jaylen Waddle to a receiver room with Courtland Sutton, who is coming off consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, plus Evan Engram at tight end.

Kansas City is also down safety Chamarri Conner, pushing Jaden Hicks into a starting role against that group.

Two functional offenses only need 44.

This number is still pricing in a broken one.

I like the Over

1* MLB - Giants/Cardinals FREE PICK on Cardinals -136 

Dave's Monday Free Play:

1* on Marlins/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The Key: The Marlins are 10-3 OVER in their last 13 games overall with 9 or more runs scored in 10 of those 13 contest.  The Diamondbacks have scored at least 5 runs in 4 of their last 6 contests.  Both offenses are heating up at season's end.  Sandy Alcantara has yielded 15 ER and 4 HR in 16 1/3 innings in his last 3 starts.  Corbin Burns makes his 2nd start of the season as he returns from injury for the stretch run.  Burnes only lasted 3 innings and 57 pitches in his first start.  Arizona's bullpen will be used heavily as a result.  Alcantara has yielded 12 runs in 12 innings in his last 2 starts against Arizona.  Take the OVER.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Twins +121

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Orioles/Mets OVER 8

The Orioles are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all six games.  The Mets are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 10 or more combined runs in eight of those games.  The Mets have scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 10 games.  The Orioles have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last six.  Brandon Young gave up 6 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against Cleveland.  Jonah Tong gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings to the Marlins in his last start.  Give me the OVER.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Giants vs Cardinals over 7½ -105

11-1 ALL SPORTS POWER RUN in Effect.  Monday night Football Week 1 Monday night specific 2X Perfect Totals Systems Denver vs KC and we also have our September Specific Late season MLB Systems. Comp play below

The MLB Comp Play is on Miami at 9:40 eastern. Miami has won the last 6 over Arizona and comes in off a nice win over the Dodgers. Alcantara goes for the Marlins and he was hit hard allowing 7 runs to The Mets last out and should progress here and he has won 3 of 4 over Arizona. Burmes is scheduled to go for Arizona and he went 3 innings in his first start back and likely goes around the same here tonight as he increases his workload. Rob also notes that September road dogs off back to back home dog wins have won at 77% since 2004 vs a team like Arizona that is off a home loss Look for Miami to take the opener. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Soccer Take San Jose +0.5 GL over LAFC (7:30 p.m. EST, Saturday September 19) San Jose hadn’t won a match since the World Cup up until recently but lo and behold they have now won two straight and look like a completely different side. They manhandled a good San Diego side on the road in a 3-2 win that was more dominant than the final score might indicate. And last week they gutted out a 1-0 win here at home vs. a Houston side that is one of the top teams in the Western Conference. We were on San Jose in that one and mentioned in our writeup that one of the main problems with the Earthquakes since the World Cup break is that they were lacking confidence and now they seem to have it back in spades and their play has been exceptionally strong. They are now unbeaten in four straight matches, and they are back in a Top 4 spot in the West with a chance to move higher with three points here. We only need a draw however, to cash this ticket, and we think they can do enough to get at least a point. LAFC is coming off a 3-1 road loss at Kansas City, one of MLS’s worst sides. LAFC are behind the Earthquakes in the standings despite all the struggles San Jose has faced since the World Cup break. They have only one win in their last eight MLS matches, and this side is just not playing championship-caliber futbol right now. San Jose always raises their level of play when LAFC comes to town and have won five of the last six meetings here.

1* Free Pick on Broncos +2½ -112

Passing on ALL SPORTS today. Not here to give you action. Here to give you winners. BUT, an ideal time to take advantage of the DISCOUNTED PKG’S right here.

The King of Monday Night Football will redeem himself from yesterday’s debacle. Yesterday was ugly. But as the champion I am, I bounce back today, redeem myself, and get us all paid in this big Monday Night Football winner between the Broncos/Chiefs.

Monday’s FREE WINNER: Denver Broncos.

Game 481.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

If there were no concerns going into this game, I would still take the Denver Broncos. Having said that, everybody is going to be looking at both quarterbacks. Bo Nix is returning from an ankle injury while Patrick Mahomes will be making his first appearance since sustaining a knee injury. Both defenses are pretty darn good. It is true, the Kansas City cornerback McDuffie is no longer wearing their uniform, having left to sport a Rams uniform. This team is also without longtime familiars on offense in Pacheco and Hunt. However, they did pick up last year’s Super Bowl Champion running back, Walker III. For the Broncos, you can expect to see newly acquired, Waddle, wideout extraordinaire. Denver has taken four of the last five meetings straight up covering five of the last six overall matchups in this rivalry going back to the end of October 2023. It’s true, Mahomes did not play in a couple of those games. This is a heck of a game for the NFL to start of their regular season Monday Night Football schedule. I do think it’s going to be a very close contest. Take the Denver Broncos. Thank you.

1% GOLD RUSH on Broncos +2½

FREE PLAY on Broncos/Chiefs over 43½

3* on Chiefs

PSP Data Driven 1* Under.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Under.The Under is 6-3 in the Angels last 9 games. Reid Detmers is 3-1 in his last 4 starts for the Angels.

This is an important series for both teams as the White Sox hold a half-game lead over the Guardians. Both pitchers have pitched well this season, but I have to give the edge to the Guardians at home. Cleveland has been in this position before, and this is something new for these White Sox players.

Play on Cleveland. This is a FREE PLAY

For one of my best free picks on Sunday I am looking at the Washington Commanders at the Philadelphia Eagles here on Sunday. I think we are getting a great value here getting more than a field goal with Washington. Over the years these teams no matter how good either one is play tight NFC East style games. I think Washington is under valued due to their poor season last year and the Eagles are over rated as usual and should see some decline this year. Look for a field goal win from the Eagles but it would shock me if we saw an upset here. 

Play on the Washington Commanders plus the points rotation #475

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