Free Sports Picks of the Day

1* Bet on Storm -3½

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Saturday’s FREE WINNER; Boston Red Sox.

Game 923.

S 6:35 PM PST/9:35 PM EST.

Boston may be dwelling in the American League East cellar at 38-48. But they are starting to find their legs. The Red Sox enter today’s game, winning seven of their last 10 outings, which does include yesterday’s series-opener by a score of 5-2. Meanwhile, the Angels own one of the worst overall records in baseball, at 36-53, sitting in last place in the West. They have dropped four in a row, and six of their last 10 outings. Their offense is mediocre, and their pitching staff is downright deplorable. Granted, the Boston offense leaves a lot to be desired. But their pitching staff has been top-10 for quite a while now. Scheduled today are Gray and Aldegheri. On a solid staff, Gray has emerged as the best starter. The right-hander is an astounding 9-1 this season, with a 2.69 ERA. The team has won 11 of his last 13 outings, and in 14 of his 15 turns in 2026, he has yielded three runs or less. On the road his numbers are equally impressive, going 5-1 with a 3.29 ERA. The Los Angeles left-hander is just 3-3 with an ERA of 4.85. The team has dropped four of his last six appearances, and over his last three starts, he is just 1-2 with an 8.53 ERA. There aren’t too many bright spots for Angels fans this season. And I think things are going to go from bad to worse for this team as they playing a surging Red Sox visiting team here. Take Boston. Thank you.

1* Free Pick on Guardians -134

1* Free Play on Portland Fire/Storm over 168½ -110

1* Free Pick on Mets/Braves: over 7½

Braves lefty Chris Sale is the reason this total sits at 7.5 with juice to the over.

He's 8-6 with a 2.10 ERA and holding hitters to a .224 average.

That's the case for the under, and I'm not pretending it isn't real.

Here's why it doesn't hold up tonight.

Sale's xERA is 3.21, more than a full run above his actual mark.

His xSLG allowed is .332 against a real .307.

He's been pitching over his skis, and the market is paying full price for the ERA, not the underlying profile.

Now layer the conditions.

Game-time temperature is 90 degrees with a 103 feels-like at Truist Park.

Ball carries in that air, and veteran starters lose bullets late.

Sale went 6 innings last time out but gave up 8 hits.

The pitch count creeps and the pen takes over earlier than the model expects.

On the other side, Mets lefty Sean Manaea is the soft spot.

He's carrying a 4.71 ERA with a .427 SLG and .333 wOBA against.

Matt Olson, Michael Harris, and Ozzie Albies get a full look at a starter who's given up multiple earned runs in every one of his last four outings.

Mets are 36-52 and offensively thin, but they still put up runs on mid-tier lefties in daylight-warm conditions like this.

Sale regression plus Manaea's contact profile plus 103-degree carry is the stack.

I like the Over

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Baltimore Orioles +115

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Baltimore Orioles as underdogs to the Cincinnati Reds tonight.  Hunter Greene will be making his 1st start of the year as he returns from an elbow injury.  He should not be favorite in his 1st start back as he will be on a pitch count, and this awful Cincinnati bullpen with a 4.80 ERA this season will get a lot of action.  Brandon Young is 6-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 13 starts for the Orioles this year, and 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 6 road starts.  Young has yielded 3 ER or fewer in 12 of his 13 starts this year.  Take Baltimore.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Diamondbacks +142

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Phillies/Royals OVER 9

The Phillies are crushing at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in 10 of their last 14 games including 10 runs or more four times.  The Royals are 13-6 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 19 games, and 10 or more in 11 of them.  Jesus Luzardo is 6-4 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 17 starts this season.  Michael Wacha is 5-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 17 starts this season.  The OVER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings between the Royals and Phillies with 10 or more combined runs in all nine games.  It will be in the 80's tonight and the ball should be carrying out.  Give me the OVER.

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Miami @ Oakland  (9:40 PM EST)
Play On:  Oakland +117

The Miami Marlins take on the A's on Saturday night.  Miami is 47-42 SU overall this year while the A's come in with a 41-47 SU overall record on the season.  Miami is 1-9 this year after scoring 8 runs or more.  The A's are 7-2 last 9 games when playing in July.  I'm expecting the A's to bounce back here.  I'll recommend a small play on the A's tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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1* Free Sharp Play on Marlins vs A's over 10½ -110

This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our Saturday Free Play. Colorado came through last night again and has busted out for 29 runs the last two games and has moved to a respectable 21-24 at home which is pretty good considering they were 25-56 all over last season here. We have a similar pitching matchup tonight with Tomoyuki Sugano who, like Ryan Feltner last night, has actually pitched better at Coors Field with a 4.14 ERA in seven starts while allowing three runs or less in five of those and has a good matchup. The Giants lost two of three in Arizona to open the roadtrip and after last night, they are 18-29 on the road. We faded Logan Webb who was on a roll and we will do the same with Robbie Ray who has been outstanding of late who has not allowed an earned run in three straight games across 22.1 innings. His 4.54 ERA on the road is over two runs higher than it is at home and while he has not lost in three starts at Coors Field going back to last season, he has a 4.97 ERA in those games and benefitted from 39 runs of support. Play (908) Colorado Rockies

Fargo is coming off a 1-2 Friday with the win on the +131 Rockies and he continues the holiday weekend to add to the great start to the season. THREE Winners Saturday including another Divisional Game of the Month!

The Orioles-Reds over is in play Saturday as the total is hovering around 9 to 9.5. While Cincinnati starts pitcher that’s coming off of elbow surgery for his season debut, this game takes place at Great American Ball Park which definitely plays up. Baltimore has a better starting pitcher in Brandon Young (6-2, 3.11 ERA), but both of these offenses have serious power potential.

Baltimore averages 4.6 RPG with 103 HR as a team. Cincinnati isn’t far behind with 106 HR and they also have enough speed (62 steals) to manufacture runs. The Reds were shut out Friday, but stranded 10 runners on base. They left tons of runners in scoring position so even though they didn’t hit the long ball Friday look for them to capitalize on their opportunities today.

If you add in some bullpen runs and a few bombs from either offense, I think this easily hits the over in this Holiday Showcase. I’m looking for total runs scored to be in the range of 11 runs today.

Jim's Free Play: 925. Orioles / Reds OVER 

My selection is on Portland plus the points over Seattle at 9 pm et on Saturday.

The Fire have had five days to stew over their third straight loss, coming in marathon overtime fashion in Washington last weekend. Of note, Portland's most recent win actually came against this same Seattle team at home on June 17th. The Storm were drilled 90-67 in Phoenix two nights ago. That snapped their brief two-game winning streak SU and four-game ATS run. I'm just not sure Seattle has any business being favored by this many points against many teams in the WNBA, and I wouldn't put Portland in that category. Take Portland (8*).

1% GOLD RUSH on Jessica Pegula/Iva Jovic: over 22