Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Senators -140

1* Bet on Missouri State/Western Kentucky: over 56½

1* Free Pick on Bucs +8½

Free Total Annihilator On Flyers vs Senators under 5½ +105

1* Free Play on Heat -7½ -105

1* NFL - Giants/Commanders FREE PICK on Commanders -3.5

(#46) New York Islanders | ML | . 

Chicago might have some great young talent like Anton Frondell & Frank Nazar in the middle at the moment. But, without Connor Bedard, it's going to be difficult for this team to grab many points. There's just so many talented teams in the NHL at the moment that road games like this become extremely hard. 

New York is no slouch either. Led by one of the best defensive cores in hockey (including goaltending,) I don't see Chicago scoring many goals if any in this one. Therefore, the best play is on NYI, even at this steep price. 

Burns' Prediction: 3-0 Islanders.

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Chargers +3.5 

Ricky's 1* play on DAL.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Bucs are 0-10 ATS in their last last 10 games.

- The Cowboys are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games.
  
- The Cowboys are 3-1 in the last 4 head to head meetings.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

1* Free Pick on Bucs +8½ -105

An IMPRESSIVE league-wide system supports small road underdogs in this situation:

604-475 ATS (56.0%), +81.5 units, 6.9% ROI!

South Alabama fits a historically profitable profile in a matchup essentially priced as a toss-up. Getting points could make the difference.

Play to: SOUTH ALABAMA +1.5.

1* Free Pick on Bucs/Cowboys: under 47½

This total is priced off Sunday's shootout, and short-week Thursday football rarely delivers a sequel.

Dallas just played a 64-point game.

The Cowboys trailed Houston 16-6 at halftime and stole it 34-30, with Dak Prescott throwing 45 times for a season-high 335 yards and CeeDee Lamb soaking up 21 of those targets.

That performance is built into 47.5.

Dallas is averaging 30.5 points and allowing 28 through four games, so the books have already pushed this number up.

You make money when you buy, not when you sell, and the buy price on the over here is the worst it's been all season.

Now both teams turn around on three days' rest.

Thursday games get sloppy.

Game plans shrink, legs are heavy, and offenses that live on rhythm tend to look a step slow.

The Cowboys are also patching the offensive line.

Tackle Drew Shelton is doubtful and unlikely to be cleared for Thursday.

Guard Tyler Smith was only cleared to return to practice Monday after opening the season on injured reserve, and he was limited in his first session back.

Getting him activated on a short week is a stretch.

Outside of Lamb, the passing game is thinner than the scores suggest.

Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson sits at 0.71 yards per route run with just 12 catches for 83 yards.

If Lamb doesn't see 21 targets again, Dallas has to grind this one out.

Take the inflated number before it drops.

I like the Under

1* FREE INFO PLAY Bucs vs Cowboys under 48 -110

1* Free Sharp Play on Bucs vs Cowboys under 48½ -110

Thursday NFL Prime time 7-1 Power Run and there is a double perfect Side going. In College Rob has a Week 6 Specific and Thursday night Specific System play going. MLB Comp play below.

The MLB comp play is on Chicago in game 4 at home at 8 eastern. Look for Chicago to bounce back and end the series here tonight. Rob notes that Game 4 road favorites off a road dog win, that lost both the first two games at home are winless since 2004. This game will see Messick and Smith likely go a few innings before the bullpens decide it. Look for the home team to advance play on Chicago. GL Rob V-

Joe D SWEPT last Friday Night, and will SWEEP again this Friday Night. Join me in my 60% NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS WINNER and my 4-1 TOUCHDOWN WINNER and together we go into the weekend with a bankroll.

Friday’s Free Winner: Florida State Seminoles.

Game 317.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

I think this is a very strange line that gives the underdog a lot of value here. FSU enters this matchup with confidence knowing they took the last two meetings against Louisville, both straight up and against the number. Granted, the last time these two rivals met was December 2023. But this season they’re coming into this matchup with very different points of view. The Seminoles come off back-to-back victories, which includes last week ‘s home win as a small underdog against Virginia, 38-7. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have dropped back-to-back games to the Demon Deacons and the Wolfpack, both games they were favored. It’s true, Florida State has a matchup on the road in eight days against Miami. But I doubt this team will be in a look ahead situation. They are focused and taking each game one at a time. They are scoring points with an equally balanced passing and rushing attacks. Their defense has played very well yielding just 21.6 PPG and are monsters against the run. Yes, Louisville accounts for more points and is pretty darn good both in the air as well as on the ground, offensively. But their defense is so bad, yielding 29.2 points per game, and getting steamrolled on the ground and beaten badly in the air. I feel the Seminoles will establish the ground game, move the chains, eat up the clock, which will allow their passing game to open up. They have a very smart head coach, who knows how to set a gameplan. I just feel this is too many points to give a very game and hot visitor. Take Florida State. Thank you.

OVER 49.5

UTSA's offense comes alive at home, scoring 59 and 45 in its two Alamodome games this season while going OVER in 12 straight there. USF can help against a Roadrunners defense allowing 218 rushing yards per game, and the Bulls have already scored 13 rushing TD's. We don't need a track meet at 49.5. UTSA gets into the 30's, USF does enough, and we're in business. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER 49.5. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Thursday FREE NCAAF O/U Play

The current run has been strong. A BIG Card is going up for this weekend, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Calgary on the moneyline is the Thursday number worth taking. The Flames are around +195 at the Saddledome, Colorado is laying something near -230, and puck drop is 9:00 p.m. ET. That price is a tax on a name and a 2-1-0 record. It is not a tax on the spot.

The spot is the bet. Colorado was in Winnipeg last night and lost 3-2. Kyle Connor scored the winner with a minute left. The Avalanche outshot the Jets 34-19, wiped out two deficits, and still got on the plane with the loss. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 16 of 19. Stuart Skinner stopped 32 of 34 and stole it. Jaden Schwartz and Fedor Svechkov each had a goal and an assist, which looks nice in the box score and does not change the schedule. They played a full road game about 24 hours before they have to do it again, and the moneyline still has them priced like the rest day happened. Scott Wedgewood is lined up for his first start of the season. First start, second half of a back-to-back, on the road. That is a lot of moving parts for a -230 favorite.

Hockey-reference.com has the Avalanche at 2-1-0 through three games under Jared Bednar. They beat Los Angeles 8-4 in the opener and St. Louis 6-1 at Ball Arena, then dropped the Winnipeg game. Sixteen goals for, eight against, before tonight. The two home blowouts are what the juice is built on. The one road game was a one-goal loss in which they carried the shot clock and still needed a save they did not get. Road favorites who just got goalied do not usually stay at -230 the next night. This one did.

Skipping the ugly part would be selling a story. Calgary is 0-3-0. Hockey-reference.com has them last in the league in goals, three in three games, and 28th in goals against at 16. Ryan Huska's group lost 1-6 to Seattle, 1-4 in Vancouver, and 1-6 in Seattle again. Mikael Backlund is still the captain. The Saddledome has not seen a win. Stop there and you are laying the Avalanche and feeling clever about it.

The process says the record is running ahead of the play. At 5-on-5 the Flames have a 57.8 Corsi share and a 53.2 Fenwick share across those three losses. They had 57.1 percent of the attempts in the home opener and 60.2 percent in the last Seattle game, where they put 33 shots on net and scored once. Season PDO is 82.5. Shooting percentage is 3.7, last in the league. Team save percentage is .812. That is not a contender hiding in the standings. It is a team that has been ice cold at both ends while winning the shot share. Those spots come back. Sometimes they come back on the same night a tired favorite shows up at -230.

Special teams are the one row that does not look broken. Calgary is 2 for 5 on the power play, 40 percent, and 9 for 10 on the kill. Small sample. Also the only part of the sheet that does not match a home dog getting almost 2-to-1. Matt Coronato has the goal. Joel Farabee has a pair of helpers. Nobody is confusing this group with a Cup pick. You do not need them to be one. A moneyline cashes on a regulation win or an overtime point. Drag a zero-rest favorite to the extra frame and the ticket is alive.

Bet Calgary on the moneyline at home after a three-game stretch with a Corsi share over 55 percent. The Flames' record in that spot this season: 0-1 straight up, the home opener, a 1-6 loss to Seattle in which they still had 57.1 percent of the 5-on-5 attempts and a PDO of 85.6. One game. The shots were fine. The puck was not.

Bet against Colorado laying -200 or shorter on the moneyline on the second half of a back-to-back. The Avalanche's record in that spot this season: 0-0 entering tonight. The only lead-in is Wednesday in Winnipeg, a 3-2 loss on 34 shots to 19, winner at the 19-minute mark of the third. Zero games is not a system. It is the first time the board has asked you to lay that kind of juice in that kind of spot, which is the tell.

Shop it. Anything plus 180 or better is the number. Under that, you are paying for the logo.

My selection is on Sam Houston State plus the points over Liberty at 7 pm et on Thursday.

Liberty enters this game riding a four-game SU and three-game ATS winning streak. That's impressive to be sure, but I think the Flames are laying too many points in this tough scheduling spot. Liberty will be playing on just five days' rest after posting a 30-14 win at Delaware last Friday. Meanwhile, Sam Houston State has been idle since dropping a 49-14 decision in an impossible road matchup against Texas Tech on September 26th. That ATS defeat against the Red Raiders marked the Bearkats first dropped cash of the season. Of note, Sam Houston State has faced a slightly more difficult schedule than Liberty based on most metrics and its first two losses came by a combined nine points against Troy and Tulsa. Take Sam Houston State.

Our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover the spread against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday at 8:15pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Tampa Bay hasn't won a single game yet. But, the good thing is that the division isn't great either this season.

The Buccaneers didn't look that bad last week with Daniels in at QB.

With a week under his belt, we're anticipating Daniels to have an even better performance on Thursday.

Dallas hasn't been extremely impressive either, winning just two of it's first four games.

The Cowboys have allowed 112 points over the four games -- an average of 28.0 points a game.

We're on TB.

AAA Sports

Marc David's NHL Free Pick

We really like favorite in this matchup. The Golden Knights (3-1-0) have won two straight on the road, including a 6-2 rout in Seattle, and return home having outscored opponents 17-10. Their scoring has come in bunches, with five or more goals in two of their four games.

The Maple Leafs (2-2-0) played their first four at home and are just even in goals at 11-11. Three of those four were decided by one goal, and they've been outscored 10-8 at even strength. This is their first road game of the season.

Vegas is deeper and more dangerous offensively, and Toronto hasn't shown they can separate from anyone

This is a FREE PLAY on VEGAS ML. 

1% GOLD RUSH on Cowboys -7½

Free Play – Take OVER 48 #307-08 Tampa Bay vs. Dallas (8:15 p.m. ET, Thursday, October 8)

Dallas is in the Bottom 5 of several defensive categories. Injuries to the secondary, in particular, have led to too many vanilla looks for the opposing teams, leaving them vulnerable. But is Tampa Bay with undrafted free agent Jalon Daniels capably of exploiting the Cowboys' defensive deficiencies? Daniels is a quick learner, but being able to execute at this level is completely different, which is why he wasn’t chosen in the draft. He had a great freshman year at Kansas, a solid second year, with the rest mixed. He’s a good runner, and Dallas has issues with QBs who can scramble. That should lead to about 20 points for the Bucs. Dak Prescott and company have more than enough weapons to take advantage of a Tampa Bay defense permitting 24 PPG, which includes a trio of pedestrian offenses in Minnesota, Green Bay, and Cleveland. Look for Dallas to reach 30 points and move to 9-0 OVER off an upset win as an underdog.

>CFB ESPN American Conference Thursday Winner! 11-5 Surge

>NHL Non-Conference Thursday Wipe-Out! 68-33 Run

DOUG UPSTONE has it cooking in all football, 10-5 on the college gridiron and 8-4 in the NFL! The recent all-sports run is 20-12, with MLB Playoffs at 26-15 L3Y. And his NHL picks are a sensational 68-33 dating back to last season!  Doug is a highly decorated betting expert with 30 monitored titles in various sports and 114 Top 10 finishes in his stellar 24-year career.

FREE PLAY on Bucs +8½

PSP Data Driven 1* Canadiens.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite.The Predators are 1-4 in their last 5 games. The Canadiens are 7-3 in the last 10 head to head meetings.