Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Talon Griekspoor -130

Ricky's 1* play on Under.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The total has gone Under in 9 of The Mariners last 16 road games.

- The total has gone Under in 7 of the Mariners last 12 games.

- The total has gone Under in 4 of The Mariners last 7 head to head road meetings.

Verdict: Runs should be hard to come by in this game.

Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer has 222 career victories. He may not get another one.

Scherzer, who turned 42 today, is set to make his first big league start since June 10 having dealt with back and thumb issues since then.

The three-time Cy Young Award winner is 1-4 this season with a 10.23 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and has only 14 strikeouts in 22 innings.

So, yes, sadly I would say Scherzer is washed up. The Nationals are just the team to put an exclamation point to that.

Washington leads the majors in runs, homers, steals and OPS. CJ Abrams is first in RBI's and James Wood is fifth in homers with 30 of which 20 have come at home.

The Nationals are two games above .500. The Blue Jays have been a major disappointment with a 48-58 record. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit only six home runs and Toronto is the lowest scoring team in the league averaging 3.9 runs per game.

So this isn't a high bar for Andrew Alvarez, who has been the Nationals' second or third best pitcher. Alvarez has a 4.22 ERA, but has better metrics than what his ERA is. He is averaging 9.3 strikeouts and 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings.

1* Free Pick on Rangers +124

1* Free Play on Giants +126

1* Free Sharp Play on Rangers +121

The Soccer comp play is on Atletico Atlanta at 7 eastern at home over Almagro in Primeira B Nacional league Action. Atlanta is at home and plays with revenge after getting shut out by Almagro on the road last month. They have solid current for with 4 wins and 2 draws of late. Atlanta will likely control Possession and get the better of the scoring chances here. The series has always been tight with very little scoring. Look for a close home win for Atlanta here tonight. GL Rob V-

My selection is on Milwaukee over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday.

While the price is pretty much in line with where I expected it to settle, I do think it could be even higher in favor of the Brewers in this series opener. Milwaukee was stunned in the first of its three-game set against the Rockies on Friday but bounced back nicely on the weekend, delivering consecutive blowout wins. I'm confident we'll see the Brewers keep it rolling into San Francisco, where the Giants are coming off a 4-3 loss to the Angels yesterday. Brandon Sproat will take the ball for Milwaukee. He's not a household name by any means and has labored through his last couple of outings. I think he was caught trying to do too much last time out as the Brewers provided him no run support at all. Note that Sproat has been better on the road than at home this season, logging a 4.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP compared to a 5.98 ERA and 1.57 WHIP at home. The Giants rank 23rd in the majors in home wOBA this season. They'll hand the ball to Tyler Mahle. While it looks like he has turned things around over his last few starts, keep in mind those came against the Rockies (twice) and the Royals. The Giants have still lost three of his last four and eight of his last 11 outings. Mahle will have his hands full with a Brewers club that ranks seventh in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Take Milwaukee (8*).

Blue Jays vs Nationals MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): Toronto's 42-year-old veteran right-hander Max Scherzer (1-4, 10.23 ERA) actually turns 42 today (it's his real birthday!) but there's no gift in this matchup. He's making his first start off the injured list, so this isn't just a decline story, it's a rusty veteran coming off a six-week layoff. His last two outings before landing on the IL were brutal, as he served up five homers between those two starts alone, pushing his season total to nine allowed in just 22 innings. 

Nationals lefty Andrew Alvarez (2-3, 4.22 ERA) isn't spotless either, but this is a favorable matchup as the Blue Jays are hitting just .218 with a .653 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, among the worst marks in the majors. 

The Bet: Nationals (3%). 

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1% GOLD RUSH on Stefano Tsitsipas +115

3* on Rangers

PSP Data Driven 1* Red Sox.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Boston are 9-0 SU in its last 9 games on the road. Athletics are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home.

Toronto is not the safer-looking side, but at +119, the Blue Jays are the value side. That price requires only a 45.7% win rate to break even, and several matchup indicators suggest this game is considerably closer than Washington’s better record implies.

Massive Luck Gap favors Toronto

The strongest foundation is the 11.88-game Luck Gap:

Toronto luck rating: -5.72

Washington luck rating: +6.16

Difference: 11.88 games

Under the Luck Gap methodology, Toronto is the play because it has substantially underperformed its underlying results while Washington has meaningfully overperformed. This does not guarantee immediate regression, but an 11.88-game difference is well above the required eight-game threshold and makes the underdog price particularly attractive.

The bullpen matchup strongly favors Toronto

This is the most important conventional advantage because Max Scherzer is expected to work under some restriction in his return from the injured list.

The numbers supplied show Toronto’s available bullpen with a 2.78 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, compared with Washington’s available relievers at a 4.78 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. That is a full 2.00-run ERA advantage and a 0.30 WHIP advantage for Toronto.

Independent bullpen rankings also list Toronto eighth in MLB with a 3.78 relief ERA, while Washington is 27th at 5.24. Toronto has two especially dependable leverage arms in Louis Varland, carrying a 1.04 ERA, and Tyler Rogers at 1.54. (InsidethePen)

That edge is why the full-game moneyline is more appealing than a first-five wager. Even a serviceable four-inning return from Scherzer allows Toronto to transition to the superior portion of its pitching staff.

Scherzer may be better than his ugly season line

There is no disguising Scherzer’s 2026 major-league results: 1-4 with a 10.23 ERA. However, that backward-looking ERA may overstate his present condition.

In his final rehabilitation appearance, Scherzer threw five hitless innings with seven strikeouts, allowing only one runner to reach on an error. He threw 40 of 56 pitches for strikes and reportedly satisfied Toronto’s requirements for activation. Toronto may limit his pitch count, but that is less damaging when backed by the superior bullpen. (Reuters)

Scherzer also has a major motivational and familiarity angle: he returns on his 42nd birthday to face the organization with which he won two Cy Young Awards and the 2019 World Series. That is not a statistical edge by itself, but his sharp rehab performance provides tangible evidence that the layoff may have helped him reset.

Andrew Alvarez is not a dominant favorite

Washington starter Andrew Alvarez has a respectable 4.22 ERA, but his recent form has deteriorated:

5.84 ERA over his last three appearances

4.99 home ERA

1.40 home WHIP

No quality starts this season

Seven walks over his last three appearances

He has completed more than 4⅔ innings only once in his last seven starts. That creates an early path into Washington’s weak bullpen.

The market is asking bettors to lay approximately -130 to -135 behind a starter who has recently struggled, rarely provides length and is supported by one of baseball’s lowest-ranked relief units. Current market listings have Toronto around +111 to +119, making the Blue Jays’ side preferable from a risk-versus-reward standpoint. (Action Network)

Washington’s home record is a warning sign

Washington owns the better overall record, but it is only 22-32 at Nationals Park. Its success has been heavily road-driven, with a 32-20 away record.

That distinction matters because Washington is being priced as a home favorite despite winning only about 41% of its home games. Toronto is 22-28 away, so this is not a strong road club, but Washington has not demonstrated that Nationals Park deserves a meaningful home-field premium. (Action Network)

Washington may be at a short-term emotional and offensive peak

The Nationals are coming off a dramatic 10-7 victory in which CJ Abrams and James Wood each homered twice. Washington’s offense is unquestionably dangerous, especially against Scherzer’s early-season profile.

However, that performance also exposed the weakness Toronto is positioned to attack. Matt Krook entered the ninth with a five-run lead and walked three consecutive hitters, forcing another reliever to put out the fire. Even Washington-focused coverage described the bullpen as a glaring roster hole requiring deadline reinforcement. (Federal Baseball)

Washington’s offense must again carry a disproportionately large burden because its starter may not provide length and its relief staff has repeatedly made comfortable games competitive.

Supporting head-to-head history

Toronto has won six of the last ten meetings and swept the most recent regular-season series in 2025, winning all three games by scores of:

5-2

5-3

4-2

Historical results have limited predictive power because rosters change, but they reinforce that Toronto has not been overmatched in this interleague series.

Bottom line

The obvious objection is Scherzer’s 10.23 ERA, making Toronto inappropriate as a large or premium-strength play. Nevertheless, the wager is not asking Scherzer to dominate for seven innings. It is asking him to show enough of the form displayed during his five-hitless-inning rehabilitation start to turn the game over to Toronto’s much better bullpen.

Toronto offers:

An 11.88-game Luck Gap

A break-even requirement of only 45.7% at +119

A major available-bullpen advantage

A favorable matchup against a starter with a 5.84 recent ERA

A chance to attack Washington’s 27th-ranked bullpen

A Nationals opponent that is only 22-32 at home

The play is Toronto +119, preferably full game rather than first five. Washington has the hotter offense and the more reliable starting-pitcher statistics, but Toronto’s regression profile, relief advantage and plus-money price provide the stronger betting value.