Free Sports Picks of the Day

Ricky's 1* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Over is 5-2 in Norway last 7 games.

- The over is 4-2 in Senegal last 6 games.

- Norway has scored 8 goals in their last 3 games.

Verdict: We should see plenty of Goals in this game.

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Boston Red Sox -121

The Boston Red Sox have been much better on the road than at home this season.  They are 19-19 on the road compared to 12-25 at home.  They face a Colorado Rockies (30-48) team they can handle, starting with Game 1 of this series Monday.

Jake Bennett is one of the top prospects for the Red Sox.  He has faced a tough schedule of opposing offenses to this point with a 4.79 ERA but only one homer and five walks allowed in 20 2/3 innings.  Keeping it in the park will be key in Colorado, and he definitely takes a big step down in class here against this Rockies lineup.  Bennett is backed by a rock solid bullpen with a 3.16 ERA on the season.

I'll gladly fade Ryan Feltner, who is 2-2 with a 5.05 ERA in nine starts this season while allowing 23 earned runs and 7 homers in 41 innings.  He is backed by a poor bullpen with a 5.12 ERA this season and a 5.96 ERA at home.  It's also a tired Colorado bullpen playing six straight games decided by 3 runs or less.  Bet the Red Sox Monday.

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1* Bet on Sky/Sun: over 167½

Free Total Annihilator On Wings vs Storm over 168½ -105

There are not too many teams with a worse record than the Red Sox. Colorado is one of those teams. The Rockies have the worst mark in baseball at 30-48. That is four more losses than Boston has.

The Rockies' biggest weakness is their pitching. It ranks last in ERA and WHIP. Colorado also has the fewest quality starts. Ryan Feltner, today's Rockies starter, is one of the architects of this disastrous pitching staff. Feltner has a 5.05 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.5 walks allowed per nine innings. He can expect little help from a Colorado bullpen that has the second highest ERA in the majors at 5.13.

The Red Sox are a respectable 19-19 on the road because they have hit much better as a visitor. Boston averages a full run per game more on the road than at home at 4.4 runs compared to 3.4.

Red Sox rookie starter Jake Bennett has a 4.79 ERA, but is a good fit to handle Coors Field giving up 0.4 home runs and 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings. Bennett has shown good command and an ability to generate ground ball outs during his 20 2/3 innings.

Bennett has a much stronger bullpen behind him than Feltner has. Boston relievers have the third lowest ERA in the majors at 3.13. The Red Sox also are a much better fielding team than Colorado.

Since Boston plays better on the road and the price is not too high, I'll fade the Rockies here. 

This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our Monday Free Play. Boston and Colorado are coming off similar weekend series as they both won the first two games before dropping the finale on Sunday. The Red Sox have been a better team on the road than at home as they are now right at .500 and come in as the road favorite partly because of that despite having just one more win overall. Jake Bennett has made four starts, two good and two bad with only one of those on the road which was one of the bad ones and now he experiences Coors Field for the first time. The Rockies are having their obvious struggles but have improved from last season and they look to get another good effort from Ryan Feltner. He has been a different pitcher since early April and landing on the IL as he has a 4.08 ERA in his last six starts but one of those was a shortened one because of the injury and he has only one bad start over this stretch which was against the Cubs and he has a very good matchup here. Play (926) Colorado Rockies

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Free Play – Take #919 Baltimore -155 over L.A. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET, Monday, June 22)

The Baltimore Orioles have to be feeling good about themselves, taking a series against the two-time champions on the road and knowing full well they should have had a sweep except for blowing the ninth inning on Friday. The club from Anaheim salvaged a split at Sacramento, understanding they too should have won their series, imploding with an 11-4 lead only to crumble in extra innings also on Friday. The series opener favors the Orioles with Kyle Bradish (4-7, 4.00 ERA), who is starting to pitch better. The Halos will start left-hander Sam Aldegheri (2-2, 4.50 ERA), who, like Bradish, walks too many hitters, but does not strike out enough batters, which results in more balls in play. Let’s go with a system play that reads like this: Bet against home teams like the Angels after scoring seven runs or more in three straight games, against an opponent after scoring eight runs or more. Teams like Anaheim are a mere 12-30 in this situation.

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1* Free Play on Toronto Tempo/Dream under 178½ -110

1* Free Pick on Sun +3

Two bad teams meet in Uncasville, both 1-9 over their last 10.

The market made Chicago a 3-point road favorite.

I'm taking the points.

The Sky are operating without Rickea Jackson, who's done for the year with a knee injury.

Through her four games this season she was averaging 18 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks in 29.5 minutes.

That's the leading scorer and the defensive anchor on the wing, gone.

Aicha Coulibaly slides into the rotation and the Sky also remain without Courtney Vandersloot and DiJonai Carrington in the backcourt.

The opposition case leans on Chicago's 85-80 win over Connecticut on June 5, with Skylar Diggins dropping 24.

Fair point.

But Jackson played in that game.

The roster that won three weeks ago isn't the roster suiting up tonight.

The efficiency numbers actually favor the home side.

The Sun post a 100.5 offensive rating to Chicago's 99.2, and Connecticut shoots 44% from the floor versus 42% for the Sky over the last 10.

Yes, the Sun's 111.6 defensive rating is ugly, but Chicago's 109.2 isn't much better, and Jackson's absence drags the Sky offense down further.

Connecticut also gets the rest edge: 3 days off versus 2 for Chicago.

Brittney Griner anchors the interior at 12.1 points per game and gives the Sun a real matchup against Kamilla Cardoso in a post-heavy game.

Three points is too many in a game between two 1-9 teams when the favorite just lost its best player.

I like the Sun

Dave's Monday Free Play:

1* on Astros/Blue Jays UNDER 7.5

The Key: Two heavyweights square off on the rubber tonight with Hunter Brown taking on Dylan Cease.  Brown is 1-0 with a 1.10 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 3 starts this year yielding only 2 ER in 16 1/3 innings with 24 strikeouts.  He went 12-9 with a 2.43 ERA and 206 strikeouts in 185 1/3 innings in his breakout 2025 campaign.  Cease is 4-3 with a 2.71 ERA in 13 starts this year with 110 strikeouts in 73 innings and only 5 HR allowed.  He is 1-2 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 7 home starts.  Brown is 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against Toronto.  Cease has yielded only 2 ER in 19 1/3 innings for a 0.93 ERA in his last 3 starts against Houston.  Take the UNDER.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Brewers vs Reds under 9½ -105

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Braves/Padres OVER 7.5

Two struggling starting pitchers go tonight when the Atlanta Braves visit the San Diego Padres.  Grant Holmes has a 5.48 ERA in his last five starts while giving up 13 earned runs and 6 home runs in 21 1/3 innings.  Michael King has a 6.41 ERA in his last five starts while giving up 19 earned runs and 6 home runs in 26 2/3 innings.  He gave up 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 2 2/3 innings in his last start against Atlanta.  The Braves are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season.  The Padres have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last 12 games.  Give me the OVER.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Dodgers -145

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Chicago Cubs at NY Mets 7:10 ET

Cubs over Mets - I’ve said it before that effective pitchers that come to MLB from Japan go to the LA Dodgers and the average ‘Tokyo Joe’s’ go to whoever thinks they are getting a deal. Chicago is starting 32-yaer old Shota Imanaga (4-6, 4.29 ERA) who is off of a pair of outstanding starts allowing just one run, seven hits and 10 K’s in 10.1 innings. For New York it will be 33 year old ‘Cunny-Thumber’ Kodal Senga (0-5, 9.00) and his numbers are horrid. Take the CHICAGO CUBS!

If you're scanning the board tonight looking for spots where the number doesn't quite match the underlying dynamics, the Miami Marlins at home against the Texas Rangers stand out as a clean short fav opportunity. Both clubs are hovering in that middle pack of the standings, think records in the low-to-mid .450s to low .500s range depending on the exact snapshot, but the situational edges tilt toward the home side in a way that rewards patience over flash.

Start with the pitching matchup. Texas sends out Kumar Rocker, who has carried a 2-6 mark with an ERA hovering around 4.17 over his recent work, allowing a fair share of hard contact (opponents hitting around .240-.250 against him in key starts, with a WHIP near 1.40). Miami counters with Tyler Phillips, sitting at 1-2 with a more respectable ERA near 3.10 and better control in limiting extra-base hits (opponents slugging under .380 in recent outings). While neither is an ace, Phillips has shown better command in shorter stints, and the Marlins' bullpen has been serviceable in high-leverage moments lately (holding opponents to sub-.300 batting averages in recent relief appearances while posting a sub-3.80 ERA in those spots). When you layer in Miami's home splits—where they've posted stronger run prevention (team ERA under 4.00 at home) and taken advantage of opponent starters who struggle with command, the formula starts to lean their way. A simple matchup weighting here might look like this: (opposing starter ERA differential × 0.35) + (home team recent bullpen ERA in the 7th inning or later over the last 30 days × 0.25) + (park-adjusted offensive output differential × 0.4). Plugging in the recent numbers gives Miami a slight but meaningful edge in expected outcome probability, especially when the game stretches into the later innings where sequencing and relief depth matter most.

Offensively, the Rangers have been a bit streaky on the road, posting lower batting averages (around .230-.240) and fewer extra-base hits away from their home confines compared to their overall marks (road OPS dipping near .680). Miami, meanwhile, has shown life at loanDepot park, where their lineup has generated solid on-base percentages (.320 range) and capitalized on mistakes with runners in scoring position (higher success rate converting RISP opportunities). Recent form adds another layer: both teams have split results in their last handful of games, but the Marlins have been better at bouncing back after close contests or against right-handed pitching (winning percentage around .500 or better in those spots), which aligns with tonight's starter profile. Historical trends in similar interleague or divisional-adjacent spots show home favorites in this exact pitching quality range covering or winning outright at a rate that exceeds what raw talent rankings might suggest—think adjusted win probabilities climbing into the mid-50s when venue and recent sequencing are factored in. Add in the Marlins' edge in stolen bases (higher success rate moving runners over in key innings, around 70-75% success) and situational hitting, and the value on the short favorite line becomes even clearer.

The angle that really stands out is the combination of a road team potentially dealing with travel or schedule compression and a home club that has quietly improved its situational hitting. Marlins hitters have posted better slugging in home day or early evening games against starters with ERAs above 4.00. On an adjusted line, this matchup tilts even more toward Miami when you weight the home park factor (boosting offensive output by roughly 10-15% in key metrics like isolated power) against Rocker's road vulnerabilities (higher hard-contact rate and walk percentage away). A deeper formula might incorporate bullpen leverage: (weighted relief ERA in close games × 0.3) + (team batting average with runners in scoring position differential × 0.3) + (recent 10-game home/road win percentage adjusted for opponent strength × 0.4). The output consistently favors the Marlins when the game stays within one or two runs entering the sixth. It's not about predicting exact run totals, but recognizing that the environment favors the side with the plus situational math. I've watched these kinds of games enough to know that when the starters are both imperfect and the home side has the better recent sequencing against similar arms, the favorite often finds a way to constantly hang around, pull ahead, or close it out late. It's not a lock as there is no such thing , but it's the kind of spot that rewards doing the homework on the splits and trends rather than chasing the away dog with fingers crossed.

My selection is on Washington over Philadelphia at 6:45 pm et on Monday.

The Phillies hit the road off consecutive blowout wins over the Mets over the weekend. I think they're in for a letdown on Monday as they take on the Nationals in Washington. Philadelphia is undecided on its starting pitcher but we know Washington will hand the ball to Foster Griffin. The journeyman right-hander has turned out to be quite a find for the Nationals as he enters Monday's outing sporting a 7-2 record to go along with a 4.59 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. That FIP leaves a lot to be desired to be sure but we have seen Griffin really settle in lately, allowing just three earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 17 innings. The Phillies have been hitting well lately but the Nats' have almost matched them step-for-step, sitting just two spots behind in xwOBA over the last week. With Philadelphia coming off a primetime affair last night, we'll fade it against the upstart 'Nats on Monday. Take Washington (8*).

AAA Sports' Selection: Indiana Fever (ATS).

Phoenix just beat Seattle by 20 points and are feeling good. But, it has won just five games in 17 games played this season.

The Mercury are 6-11 against the spread this season and are also 3-7 ats over their L10 games.

Indiana hasn't been great lately, losing back-to-back games against Atlanta. But, it's been rather strong at home this year.

In fact, the Fever are 6-1 over their L7 games played.

We're on Indiana tonight.

Dodgers vs Twins MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): The red hot Minnesota Twins have won seven of their last nine and they are always dangerous as home underdogs. The Los Angeles Dodgers have struggled to come up at the level you would expect and injuries to their starting rotation arms have seen new names like Eric Lauer (2-5, 5.37 ERA) get brought in. The current Twins roster has a collective .339 batting average and a massive .694 slugging percentage against Lauer. The Dodgers are coming off a series where their pitching was "unusually poor," and they managed just nine runs over three games against Baltimore.

The Bet: Twins +1½ (3%). 

1% GOLD RUSH on Roman Andres Burruchaga/Arthur Fery: under 21

FREE PLAY on Royals +175

3* on over

Best free pick on the board in the WNBA here for Monday I am looking at the Connecticut Sun hosting the Chicago Sky. Now a lot of bandwagon bettors should be backing Chicago here on the road hell they have covered 4 straight games while the Sun who just blew a massive 4th quarter lead last game have missed the cover in 3 straight games. So for me it’s a perfect storm here. Sun play the Sky well over recent games covering 3 of the last 4. Look for this game to be tight at the half and come down to who has the ball last. That being said give me the points in my pocket on this one. 

Play on the Connecticut Sun plus the points rotation #634

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