Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Dodgers under 9 -105

Ricky's 1* play on CLE.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Guardians are 8-2 in their last 10 games.

- Gavin Williams is 3-1 in his last 4 starts for the Guardians.

- The Blue Jays are 2-4 in their last 6 road games.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

Free Play on Padres ML- The Cincinnati Reds are 10th in the majors in wRC+ against left handed pitching. They are dead last in the majors in wRC+ against right handed pitching. Randy Vasquez can struggle against teams with a lot of good left handed hitters, but the Reds are not that team. Vasquez should be able to navigate through this lineup well. The Padres bullpen is excellent and well rested too.

Nick Lodolo is in really poor form, and the Padres have been one of the top five offenses in baseball in the last month. The Reds have one of the weakest bullpens in baseball.

Take San Diego.

(4 straight winners. 20-8 last 28 plays. MLB Divisional Total of the YEAR is up for Tuesday night. Join in!)

(#961) St. Louis Cardinals @ (#962) Los Angeles Dodgers | UNDER | . 

Michael McGreevy (5-9, 3.86 ERA) vs. Eric Lauer (8-6, 4.78 ERA) . 

Although these pitchers haven't necessarily been great, I think that this is the perfect matchup for a low scoring affair. Michael McGreevy has already faced the Dodgers this year and completely shut them down. He went six innings in that contest and allowed just three hits. It's time for him to get back to work here. 

On the other hand, Eric Lauer has seen significant improvement since joining Los Angeles. No, he isn't an ace or anything by any means. But, he should put down another solid performance on Tuesday. LAD has scored only 25 runs over its past eight games. I'm on the "under" in this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 4-2 Cardinals.

3* on A's

1* Free Sharp Play on Twins +106

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #164 Under in Marshall Thundering Herd @ Penn State Nittany Lions (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 5 FS1) The Matt Campbell era gets underway at Penn State on Saturday. Penn State should still have a strong defense and Coach Campbell is a run the ball and play strong defense type of coach. I don’t think he will want to throw the football up and down the field and focus on field position and ball control. Marshall usually a bowl caliber team and not a mid-major pushover like some teams. They have to run clock to have any chance to keep this game under twenty points and that should set up a strong play for the under. Marshall closed out the season going under the posted total in 3 straight games. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend card featuring top plays in football, baseball, and soccer. 3 straight winning weeks to open up the football season and you can receive all football plays for half off with a one week football package.

I like Tampa Bay around -125 in a bounce-back spot after Monday's 3-2 loss. The Rays are an excellent 46-24 at home and have been one of baseball's strongest teams against left-handed pitching, going 25-13 against lefty starters. That's important with Sean Manaea starting for New York.

Tampa Bay also owns one of the American League's best offenses, while the Mets have struggled on the road and are only 15-25 as road underdogs of +100 or higher.

Jim's Free Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Under 48.5 in Buffalo. That’s the one I want and recommending to all of you.

Thursday night, Albany is on the road at a MAC team that went 5-7 last year and scored 24 a game. Buffalo is laying 24 and a half. They should win. They do not need a 35-burger to get it done. The books hanging 48.5 already told you this is supposed to stay small. Week 1, first Thursday, rust, backups late. That’s punts. Not a track meet.

Albany already played. They beat New Hampshire 28-14 and the under cashed at 46.5. Last season they averaged 16.3 points. That’s two scores and a kick if everything is clean. They are not walking into Broadview and hanging 28. Buffalo scored 24 a night in 2025 and allowed 23.5. Close games. Ugly games. Not 50-point games.

Shop 48 if you can get it. Don’t wait around for 47 and watch the number leave.

Simple way to look at it: if each team puts up 21, you are already home.

21+21=4221 + 21 = 4221+21=42

That’s under 48.5 with six points to spare. Twenty-one is three scores. Asking for 49 in an opener with a three-touchdown spread is a lot. Buffalo 28, Albany 14 is 42. Buffalo 31, Albany 10 is 41. The over needs a leftover touchdown and a special-teams mistake. Week 1 does not give those away as often as people think.

Add last year’s averages and you get the same picture.

16.3+24.0=40.316.3 + 24.0 = 40.316.3+24.0=40.3

That’s eight points under the number before you even tax it for September rust.

Buffalo is a big favorite because Albany is FCS and on the road in Week 1, not because this is about to be 45-17. If the Bulls cover and it finishes 31-7, the under still cashes. Spread and total are different tickets. Take the one that pays when the night stays quiet.

A few spots that keep showing up in this look:

Bet under the total in Albany games as a road underdog.
The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 5-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 51.5. (+5.0 units, ROI = 90.9%)

Bet under the total in Buffalo home games when the number is 50 or lower.
The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 6-2 (75%) with an average over/under of 48.8. (+3.6 units, ROI ≈ 45%)

Bet under in Week 1 MAC home games against FCS when the total is 50 or lower.
The Under’s record the last two seasons: 7-2 (77.8%) with an average over/under of 49.1. (+4.4 units, ROI ≈ 49%)

Bet under when Albany plays an FBS team and the number is 52 or lower.
The Under’s record since 2025: 4-1 (80%) with an average over/under of 50.2. (+2.6 units, ROI ≈ 52%)

Grab 48.5. If a shop is still at 49, that’s fine too. I would not start on Buffalo −24.5 when the total is the cleaner number. Check the wind off the lake closer to kick. Keep the unit small. It’s still the first week. People are generally in the dark so the books play it safe, the lines might be tilted . This is one that looks a little crooked and a viable early season bet.

Under 48.5, Albany at Buffalo. That’s the play.

My selection is on Detroit over Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Twins took the opener of this series in blowout fashion last night. We'll back the Tigers as they try to respond on Tuesday. Troy Melton gets the start for Detroit. He pitched well over seven innings against a tough Rays lineup last time out but was still saddled with the loss in a 3-0 defeat. On the season, Melton is 7-3 with a 3.73 FIP and 1.01 WHIP and while current Twins hitters have had some previous success against him, I'm confident he can navigate their lineup in this spot, noting that while Minnesota did bust out for 11 runs last night, it still ranks middle-of-the-pack in terms of xwOBA over the last week. Andrew Morris gets the start for the Twins, figuring to serve as an 'opener'. The Twins bolstered their bullpen at the trade deadline but it remains unreliable with a 4.68 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over the last month. Look for the Tigers to answer back in this spot. Take Detroit (8*).

PSP Data Driven 1* Rangers.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. oakland athletics are 0-4 in their last 4 games. Mackenzie Gore is 4-1 in his last 5 starts for the Ranger.

Fresno State has an attractive combination of situational rest, coaching familiarity and sharp support.

A respected sharp handicapper released Fresno State +23.5 for 1.1 units. His projection still makes USC a substantial favorite, but the recommendation is that the market has gone too far.

The situational angle is noteworthy. Fresno State is fresh, whereas USC has already played San Jose State. Historically, Teams in first game versus opponent in second game under specific situations that apply in this game are 211-180-2.

USC's opener also provided evidence that the Trojans are not invulnerable to scoring from an inferior opponent. San Jose State produced 26 points. Fresno State does not need to win offensively; it needs enough production to prevent USC from creating a four-touchdown separation.

There is also coaching familiarity. Fresno State coach Matt Entz has prior familiarity with Lincoln Riley's system, giving the Bulldogs a preparation advantage that a typical large underdog may not possess.

The problem is the market. The sharp release was +23.5. If only +22.5 is available, we are already giving away a full point of value. If the game drops through +21, the recommendation becomes substantially less attractive.

Worldwide public sentiment has leaned toward USC, giving Fresno additional contrarian corroboration.

Free Play: FRESNO STATE +22.5

Prefer: +23.5 or better

Playable: +22.5

Pass below: +21.5