Free Sports Picks of the Day

[1%] Free Play on Brewers over 8½ -120

Ricky's 1* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Over is 5-0 in Miles Mikolas last 5 starts for the Nationals.

- The total has gone Over in 3 of Michael Lorenzen last 5 starts for the Rockies. 

- The Over is 3-1 in the Rockies last 4 home games.

Verdict: We should see plenty of Runs in this game.

1* Free Pick on Yankees -138

Recommended Bet: Drita +114

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Cincinnati Reds +107

Getting the Cincinnati Reds as underdogs to the Seattle Mariners is a nice value tonight considering their massive advantage on the mound.  They will also be motivated to bounce back from an 8-0 loss to the Mariners in Game 1 last night.

Chase Burns is 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 18 starts this season while allowing just 29 earned runs in 102 2/3 innings with 118 K's.  He will be rejuvenated after being off since July 8th due to the All-Star Break.

Luis Castillo is 3-8 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 15 starts and three relief appearances this season.  He has been at his worst at home, going 1-3 with a 5.26 ERA while allowing 22 earned runs in 37 2/3 innings.  Castillo allowed 6 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of an 8-4 loss to the Reds in his last start against them last season.  Bet the Reds Tuesday.

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1* Free Pick on Padres/Braves: under 9½

The Braves are running out a lineup that's missing Ronald Acuña Jr., Sean Murphy, and Ha-Seong Kim, with Mike Yastrzemski also on the 10-day IL.

That's the middle of a contender's order sitting in the trainer's room.

Replacement bats like Drake Baldwin, Jim Jarvis, and Mauricio Dubon aren't scaring a big-league starter.

That starter is Braves right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, who's carrying a 3.50 ERA and 1.26 WHIP across 22 appearances.

Yes, the 4.50 xERA says he's been fortunate, but the run prevention has been real all year and he's pitching at home.

The opposition case is Padres starter Walker Buehler, and it's a fair one.

He's coughed up runs in bunches lately and his season line sits at a 5.36 ERA.

That's the reason this total is 9.5 instead of 10.5.

But the underlying Statcast is nowhere near as ugly as the ERA: 4.52 xERA.327 xwOBA.258 xBA.

The market has already baked in the disaster starts.

I'm not paying full price for a narrative the number already reflects.

Park and weather push the other way with 84 degrees and an 11 MPH south wind, and I'm accounting for that.

Still, the lineup quality on the Atlanta side matters more than a warm night in July.

Most books are at 9.

Getting 9.5 is a full half-run of value, and the hook covers the 5-4 and 6-3 scores that a banged-up Braves lineup produces.

Take the number while it's there.

I like the Under

1* MLB - Rays/Blue Jays FREE PICK on Blue Jays -103

Dave's Tuesday Free Play:

1* on Giants/Royals OVER 9

The Key: Tyler Mahle is 2-8 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 15 starts for the Giants this year.  He has been exposed outside of pitcher-friendly San Francisco going 0-5 with an 8.45 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in 7 road starts.  Luinder Avila is 4-3 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.62 WHIP this year.  He has been exposed at hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium at 1-3 with a 9.68 ERA and 2.21 WHIP while yielding 19 ER in 17 2/3 innings.  Both offenses should feast tonight.  Take the OVER.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Independiente Santa Fe -250

1 Unit FREE PLAY on New York Mets +120

Rookie Zach Thornton has been very impressive in his last two starts giving up one earned run and 10 base runners in 13 innings with 12 strikeouts against the Red Sox and Phillies.  He will hold the Milwaukee Brewers in check tonight as well.  The Brewers will go with their weakest starter in Brandon Sproat, who is 3-4 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this season, including 2-2 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.56 WHIP at home.  He has given up 25 earned runs and 8 home runs in 36 innings at home this season.  Give me the Mets.

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Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Tuesday 7-21-26

NY Mets @ Milwaukee  (7:40 PM EST)
Play On:  Milwaukee -130 

The New York Mets take on the Brewers in Milwaukee on Tuesday night.  

1* Free Sharp Play on Mets vs Brewers under 9 -113

Tuesday 100% NATIONAL League Total of the Month Headlines. Soccer Comp play Below

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #688 Under in Edmonton @ Saskatchewan (9p.m., Thursday, July 23 CBS Sports Network) Edmonton scored just 19 points last week and I see them struggling to light up the scoreboard on Thursday in the CFL as Week 8 gets underway at Mosaic Stadium. These are two of the best three teams in the CFL, and both teams have strong defenses, especially the Elks. Edmonton has allowed just 138 points in 6 games. Saskatchewan has allowed over 30 points per game, but they are coming off a bye and that will help them get some defensive players back for this game. Often times when good teams meet, the defensive’s dominate and we expect a low scoring game on Thursday. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend card featuring top plays in Soccer, UFC, CFL, and KBO.

Chip’s MLB Triple Play Winners 

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Chip’s FREE MLB winner

Baltimore at Boston 7:10 ET

Red Sox over Orioles - I don’t know how many of you have been in competetion during a season and have a team on an unexpected winning streak or even losing streak. What happens more often than not is that the ‘beat goes on’…winning or losing. One of the worst times I ever experienced was tring to cash in against a team running hot thinking that I was going to have the winner when they fell …cuz ‘I knew it’…yeah, maybe a few games later when,I was too far gone mentally and being tested money wise. But, if I ride the streak no matter what, I can only lose ONCE! Red Sox went after Ranger (gotta love that name) Suarez (4-3, 3.15) in the off season and he is rounding into form after being held back the first month. Ride that winner as long as you can! Take BOSTON! 

1* Free Play on Yankees -138

Tuesday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Red Sox -133

My selection is on Colorado over Washington at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Nationals bats stayed hot as they predictably took the opener of this series in lopsided fashion last night. We'll call for the Rockies to answer back on Tuesday. Colorado will hand the ball to Michael Lorenzen. He hasn't had a good season by any means but he has pitched well lately, allowing just three earned runs in 11 innings of work over his last two outings. In fact, Colorado checks in 3-1 in his last four trips to the hill. Nationals starter Miles Mikolas held the Yankees bats at bay in his last start before the All-Star break but prior to that had been tagged for 13 earned runs in 13 innings over his previous two outings. Despite pitching for a contending Nationals team, he has posted a 3-7 record. Look for the Rockies bats to do enough to secure a win in what will likely be a high-scoring affair. Take Colorado (8*).

Rays vs Blue Jays Free Pick

The Angle(s): Rays righty Drew Rasmussen (7-5, 3.26 ERA) has a proven track record of neutralizing the heart of Toronto's lineup, limiting current Blue Jays hitters to a .232 average in 109 career plate appearances against them, including a .095 mark (2-for-21) with four strikeouts against George Springer.

Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman (4-8, 4.33 ERA), who has historically struggled against this specific Rays roster. Tampa Bay hitters are batting a collective .367 against Gausman in 116 career plate appearances, with Yandy Díaz (.389 in 20 PA) and Jonathan Aranda (.500 in 11 PA) both seeing the ball extremely well off him.

The Bet: Rays (3%). 

FREE PLAY on Cruz Azul -275

3* on Royals

PSP Data Driven 1* Over.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Over. The Over is 5-0 in Miles Mikolas last 5 starts for the Nationals. 

Toronto is the value side because the market is asking bettors to lay a price with a Tampa Bay team whose record has been boosted by one of baseball’s largest positive Luck Ratings.

The Rays own a +8.30 Luck Rating, while Toronto sits at -5.20, creating a substantial 13.50-game Luck Gap. Under the Luck Gap theory, Tampa Bay is significantly overvalued and the Blue Jays are undervalued. Toronto is the bet at essentially even money.

Kevin Gausman’s overall 4.33 ERA is unimpressive, but his home splits are considerably stronger. At Rogers Centre, Gausman owns a 3.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .266 opponent on-base percentage. His recent strikeout form also remains sharp, with 23 strikeouts over his last three starts.

Drew Rasmussen carries the better season-long numbers, but his current form is a major concern. Over his last two starts, Rasmussen has surrendered 11 earned runs, 13 hits and three home runs in only 7⅓ innings. His ERA across his last three outings is 7.42, with opponents reaching base at a .350 rate.

Toronto already showed it can score against Rasmussen. He faced the Blue Jays twice in May and allowed three earned runs in each game. In the May 11 meeting at Toronto, the Blue Jays scored five runs overall and Rasmussen gave up three runs, four hits and a home run in six innings.

The bullpen matchup provides Toronto with another meaningful advantage. The Blue Jays’ relief corps owns a 3.36 ERA, compared with Tampa Bay’s 3.82. More importantly, Toronto’s available bullpen enters with a 2.89 ERA, while Tampa Bay’s available relievers have a 4.47 ERA. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has also recorded a 5.19 ERA over its last three games.

Toronto is also coming off a 7-1 loss in Monday’s opener, creating a favorable buy-low situation. Tampa Bay won as a +157 underdog, but now the market has flipped the Rays into a road favorite. That is a substantial adjustment based on one game and creates value on the home team.

The season records favor Tampa Bay, but the underlying indicators say the difference between these clubs has been exaggerated. Toronto has the massive Luck Gap advantage, the stronger bullpen, Gausman’s favorable home splits and a good opportunity to rebound after an ugly series-opening defeat.