Free Sports Picks of the Day

1* Free Play on Michigan State -26½ -110

1* Free Pick on Jaguars -9

1* Bet on Michigan State -26½

[1%] Free Play on Warriors -5 -110

3* on under

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: James Madison/Southern Miss OVER 57.5

There should be a ton of possessions in this game between James Madison and Southern Miss tonight with more opportunities for points.  Southern Miss ranks 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.4 seconds.  James Madison ranks 16th, snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds.

James Madison has a potent offense scoring 39.1 points per game while averaging 6.4 yards per play this season.  They have a tired defense off consecutive OT losses to Appalachian State and Troy.  They will actually be playing for a 10th consecutive week to start the season.  They are playing their 4th game in 19 days as well.

Southern Miss hasn't played many offenses the caliber of James Madison this season.  Yet they still allowed 31 points to Louisiana and 55 points to Troy.  They also allowed 48 points to UConn and 43 to Auburn.  The Dukes can pretty much name their number against this poor Southern Miss defense.

The Golden Eagles are going to be playing fast no matter the score of the game, but they will play even faster when trailing and that's likely to be the case.  This offense has produced 26.9 points per game, 399.5 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.  They have put up at least 34 points in three of their last four games and should do their part against this tired JMU defense to contribute to the total.

The forecast also looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no rain tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

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Good to: Baltimore +9.5 at -110 or better. Preferred: +10 at -115 or better.

Baltimore enters Thursday Night Football as an unusually large home underdog following one of the most dramatic quarterback-related line adjustments of the NFL season. The Ravens were originally favored by approximately four points before injuries to Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley transformed the market. Jacksonville is now laying 10 points, creating a potential opportunity to take advantage of an excessive adjustment.

A historically profitable NFL system provides substantial support for Baltimore. Since 1993, underdogs whose recent against-the-spread performance is at least 12 points worse than their opponent's have produced a 431-311-17 ATS record, covering 58.1% of decisions and generating a 10.9% historical return. The system identifies situations where recent performance disparities may already be overrepresented in the betting line.

Baltimore qualifies following its 36-10 loss at Buffalo, while Jacksonville enters off a dominant 42-7 victory over Indianapolis. The contrast in recent results is substantial, but bookmakers have already made an extraordinary adjustment to account for the Ravens' quarterback situation.

The underlying personnel disadvantage is legitimate. Undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano is expected to make his first NFL start after completing 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards against Buffalo. However, Baltimore retains Derrick Henry, and Jacksonville has lost defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton to a season-ending quadriceps injury. Hamilton's absence is particularly relevant because Baltimore's best opportunity to remain competitive is establishing the running game, limiting obvious passing situations and shortening the contest.

Jacksonville has also lost safety Eric Murray for the season. Those two defensive injuries create uncertainty about whether the Jaguars can reproduce their previous defensive efficiency against a Baltimore offense likely to emphasize physical rushing and ball control.

The contrarian component is also favorable. A reported DraftKings betting snapshot shows approximately four out of five spread tickets supporting Jacksonville. That makes Baltimore the unpopular side despite receiving double digits at home. The sportsbook samples are not uniform, however, so this should not be characterized as a fully corroborated worldwide contrarian position.

The Ravens are 4-4 and have lost three consecutive games. Their urgency is significant, particularly in a nationally televised home game. More importantly, Jacksonville's likely offensive game script creates backdoor-cover potential. A substantial second-half lead could encourage the Jaguars to emphasize the ground game, shorten possessions and protect their quarterback rather than maximize their winning margin.

Baltimore does not need to win outright. At +10, the Ravens can lose by nine points and still cash, while a 10-point defeat pushes. That distinction becomes especially meaningful in a game with a market total of only 39.5.

The historical system, substantial market adjustment, Jacksonville's defensive injuries and potential for a reduced-possession game support Baltimore as a free selection. The quarterback uncertainty prevents a stronger designation.

Additional market verification: Wednesday reports show Jacksonville between -9 and -10, with totals varying approximately 39.5–42.5. Forecast winds are light, making weather a negligible factor. The fair spread of Jacksonville -8 to -10 remains provisional, not a validated independent model output. 

Thursday's Free NBA Pick

PLAY ON: Warriors -7 

1* Free Pick on Jaguars/Ravens: under 40

The Ravens' quarterback room is down to an undrafted rookie, and that's where this total starts.

Lamar Jackson is out indefinitely with a thumb injury and headed for injured reserve. Tyler Huntley is out as well. That leaves Joe Fagnano, an undrafted rookie out of UConn, making his first career NFL start on a short week. He came out of Sunday's loss to the Bills with an ankle injury of his own, practicing in a heavy brace.

Fagnano's emergency relief work against Buffalo told the story: 10 of 21 for 91 yards with an interception. No Ravens player topped 25 receiving yards, and Zay Flowers was held without a catch for the first time in his career. Expect Baltimore to lean on Derrick Henry, run the clock and protect the kid.

The other side of the ball helps too. Jacksonville is allowing just 15.9 points per game through 7 contests, and the defense just hung a shutout through three quarters on the Colts in a 42-7 win. Rayuan Lane took a pick-six 92 yards in that one.

Baltimore has scored 13, 10 and 10 in three of its last 5 games, averaging 17.4 over that stretch. And the Jaguars needed just 14 Trevor Lawrence pass attempts last week. When this team gets a lead, it sits on it.

Even the kicking game is patched together. Asked whether Jake Moody kicks Thursday with Tyler Loop headed to IR, Jesse Minter said "At this point, yes."

A rookie quarterback, a run-heavy script on both sides and a stingy Jacksonville defense on a short week. Give me the Under 40 (-110) in Jaguars at Ravens.

Dave's Thursday Free Play:

1* on Illinois -30

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Ravens +10 -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Tulsa -14

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1* Free Sharp Play on Ravens +10 -110

Thursday night Card has a TOP line Executive Level TIER 1 in College Hoops and Perfect Power systems in the NFL and College Football. NHL Comp play below

The NHL Comp play is on Colorado at 9:35 eastern. The Avalanche are laying 2-1 here but fit a 22-2 revenge system that pertains to Home favorites at -150 or higher that have a 550 or better win percentage, lost their last game and have road favored loss revenge for a -200 or higher loss. Colorado has bounced back to win 4 of 5 off a loss this year and catch Nashville off a pair of upset wins. Colorado was flattened 7-2 in their last game and likely bounce back here. Play on Colorado. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #366 Arizona State Sun Devils over Colorado Buffaloes (7:30 p.m., Saturday, November 7 | ESPN2)

Colorado snapped a five-game losing streak with its first conference victory of the season over Kansas State last time out. That result helps keep this line reasonable and creates value with Arizona State at home.

The Buffaloes were competitive in only one game during that five-game skid, and this looks like a good opportunity for the Sun Devils to bounce back. Arizona State remains in the hunt for a bowl berth and has alternated wins and losses all season. Coming off a loss to BYU, I expect the Sun Devils to respond with a strong performance and win by double digits.

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WOWEEE!!! We have a HUGE PAYDAY coming today with my NCAAF & NCAAB SLATE: NCAAF AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH along with my SUNBELT GAME OF THE WEEK. Then we also have my 1st NCAAB RELEASES OF THE YEAR: WAKE FOREST/VANDY WINNER, CRUSHER, and SHOCKER PLAYS. Get them all and together we will enjoy a HUGE PAYDAY!

Baltimore Ravens.

When all fingers point to one side in Sports betting, I raise an eyebrow and look at the other side. Maybe it’s because I’m a contrarian player who has made a very successful career going against the grain. I understand Jacksonville is coming off a demolishing at home over Indianapolis 42-7. I also understand they have struggled in this rivalry over recent matchups. However, Baltimore is without both their first- and second-string quarterbacks and are relying on Joe Fagnano. Undrafted out of UConn, he is certainly untested. They do have a couple of able bodies behind him. But he is named the starter for this matchup. It has been over a decade since the Jaguars won in Baltimore, as the Ravens to enjoy a very nice home-field advantage at M&T Bank Stadium. Over recent weeks, this team has lost and failed to cover all three of their games. But I think this is a different situation here. Yes, the Jaguars possess a top-five scoring offense and a top-two scoring defense. But they don’t know what to expect from Fagnano and are very lax against the pass, ranking 29th. I do feel the No. 6 ranked rushing attack of the Baltimore Ravens behind the legs of Derrick Henry will get a large portion of their action. Now the Jacksonville Jaguars own the top run defense in the NFL. However, I think there are several items that compel me to side with the home team here. The Ravens do, as I mentioned a moment ago own a very good record at home and have the confidence of knowing they’ve dominated this opponent on this field over the last decade. Also, please take into account in 10 days from now on the road the Jaguars take on the Tennessee Titans, a team in their own division that sits in second place with the record of just 2-5. I don’t think they’re going to be a look in a look ahead mode. But they certainly don’t need to take this game seriously through four quarters. I’m taking the Baltimore Ravens. Thank you.

Air Force +3.5

Air Force and Army meet on Saturday and we're backing Air Force with the points. These are two teams with very similar styles of offense which should provide a game that is tightly played. Air Force has been flying under the radar a bit as they sit at 6-2 while coming off a win over UConn where they scored 35 points. This offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging nearly 30 ppg and they're doing it with the ground attack. They rushed for 366 yards last week and this is going to be a game where they give Army a taste of what they do to other teams. This will be a game won at the line of scrimmage and both teams will run downhill right at each other. Army's defense has had some issues and this game will stay close throughout. Grab the points. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on AIR FORCE ATS. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Saturday FREE NCAAF ATS Play

The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. A BIG weekend is coming up for football, plays locked in early in the week. Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Ricky's 1* play on Under.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Under is 3-1 in the Magic last 4 games.

- The Under is 4-3 in the Magic last 7 head to head meetings.

- The Under is 3-1 in the Suns last 4 home head to head meetings.

Verdict: Points should be hard to come by in this game.

1% GOLD RUSH on Ravens +10

FREE PLAY on Jaguars/Ravens over 39½

This game just doesn't feel the same this year, as both teams have not played well. Michigan still has an elite defense, and as stagnant as their offense has been, they should be able to score against the MSU defense. MSU has been blown out in games, and they will not score enough to cover the number.

Play on Michigan

Southern Miss plus the points vs. James Madison

I’m taking the points with the Golden Eagles.

JMU looks human right now — back-to-back OT losses after starting 7-0, and now they turn around on a short week for their third straight Thursday night game on the road. They’re also without leading rusher George Pettaway, which takes some of the bite out of that 39-point offense.

Southern Miss is rolling a bit. Two straight wins and the ground game (Robinson and Wilder) has been cooking. Home underdogs in this spot tend to keep it competitive, and I just don’t see JMU running away. Something like 31-20 or 34-24 feels more realistic than a double-digit blowout.

Play on Southern Miss plus the points rotation #316

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