Free Sports Picks of the Day

1* Bet on Baylor +5½

Free Total Annihilator On Hornets vs Clippers under 215½ -105

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: San Francisco 49ers -3.5

The 49ers are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS this season despite all of their injuries.  They have the elite numbers to match that record on both sides of the football.  Kyle Shanahan is always going to get the most out of his offenses and he has again this season.  But people are sleeping on just how good this 49ers defense is.

The 49ers rank 3rd in scoring offense at 29.4 points per game, 6th in total offense at 378.1 yards per game and 1st at 6.4 yards per play.  Brock Purdy is having a MVP caliber season with what he has done with short-handed weapons.  Jordan Watkins stepped up in a big way last week.  Deebo Samuel returns this week, and they added in Keenan Allen after a trade with the Colts.

The 49ers rank 6th in scoring defense at 19.5 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 291.9 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play allowed.  They are outscoring opponents by 9.9 points per game and outgaining them by 86.2 yards per game and 1.5 yards per play.  They just got Nick Bosa back from injury and traded for DeForest Buckner to really bolster their defensive line.  Having Warner and Greenlaw back at LB has made a big difference, and the 49ers have one of the better secondaries in the NFL.

No question the Cowboys have a great offense scoring 27.3 points per game, averaging 360.4 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  But they have still been worse than the 49ers on offense despite having better health.  They will be without TE Jake Ferguson this week, but otherwise they are almost fully healthy which has been the case for much of the season.

The problem for the Cowboys is their defense, which ranks 25th in scoring at 26.2 points per game, 30th in total defense at 372.7 yards per game and 27th at 6.0 yards per play allowed.  Shanahan is going to coach circles around their interim defensive coordinator.  That's especially the case with all the injuries the Cowboys are dealing with on that side of the ball.

Dallas is without LB Donovan Ezeiruaku, LB Malachi Lawrence and three safeties in PJ Locke, Juanyeh Thomas and Jalen Thompson.  They also have some key guys questionable to play this week in CB Joey Porter Jr., CB DaRon Bland, S Alijah Clark and NT Jonathan Bullard.  What a mess this defense is.  

The 49ers will score at will, and the difference in the game will be the 49ers getting key stops when they need them.  San Francisco is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Dallas with all four wins by 6 points or more.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

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3* on under

Good to Las Vegas +6.5 at -110 or better. Take +7 if available. 

Home underdogs getting at least 3.5 points against road favorites coming off three straight home games have gone 45–18 ATS (71.4%, +36.4% ROI). The Raiders fit that system and have strong corroborated contrarian support. Seattle is starting Drew Lock behind an offensive line missing Charles Cross and Quenton Nelson. That matters when the Seahawks need to win by a touchdown to cover in a game totaled at 40.5.

The Raiders are going to be energized and up for this home game in Fernando Mendoza's first NFL start. Raiders coach Klint Kubiak has a great reputation for coaching up quarterbacks and he knows Seattle's defense well having been the Seahawks' offensive coordinator last season.

The Seahawk had trouble getting to Las Vegas because of the airlines being down on Friday. It is the first time in a month the Seahawks have had to travel. Seattle also is a banged up team.

Sam Darnold remains out leaving Drew Lock to start another week at quarterback. Lock is fighting off injuries, too. He is not at 100%. Not helping matters for Seattle is its strong offensive line left side is missing injured starters Charles Cross and Quenton Nelson.

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Cardinals +10 

1* Free Pick on Raiders +3½

Seattle rolls into Las Vegas without its starting quarterback, and I don't think a field goal and a half properly prices what this offense looks like right now.

Sam Darnold is out. Drew Lock is in line to start again, and even he is questionable with Jalen Milroe behind him, a quarterback who hasn't taken a regular-season snap this year. Seattle has scored 17 points in back-to-back games with Lock running the show, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba just posted a season low in receiving yards working with him.

The protection in front of Lock is a problem too. Left tackle Charles Cross and guard Quenton Nelson are both doubtful. A backup quarterback behind a patchwork line on the road is a hard way to cover anything.

Seattle is averaging just 19.4 points over its last 5, and the Seahawks are 2-3 in that stretch. This is not the offense the market remembers from earlier in the season.

The Raiders can score on anybody. Kirk Cousins has produced 21 total touchdowns through nine starts. Brock Bowers has hit 70 receiving yards in all seven of his appearances with 6 touchdowns, and Matt Gay is 19-for-21 on field goals kicking indoors. Vegas is averaging 26.4 points a game and hung 38 on the Jets two weeks ago.

Seattle's defense is legitimately good, no argument there. But against a limited offense that struggles to reach 20, the Raiders only need to keep this a one-score game, and they have the weapons to do it at home.

Give me the Raiders +3.5 (-110) in Seahawks at Raiders.

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Seahawks/Raiders OVER 40.5

The Key: I think this total has been adjusted down too much for Fernando Mendoza replacing Kirk Cousins.  They will take the reigns off Mendoza right away because he has practiced week in and week out to eventually be the starter.  And I think he will do just fine, and there will be an element of surprise working in their favor in his first start.  The Seahawks got good news that Drew Lock is good to go, and he's really not that much of a downgrade from Sam Darnold.  The Raiders are have the worst defense in the NFL and that doesn't change this week.  They yield 29.8 PPG, 385.8 YPG and 6.3 YPP this year.  That poor defense has led the Raiders into going 7-0 OVER in their last 7 games overall finishing with 55 or more combined points in all 7 games to boot.  So this total of 40.5 is way low.  The Seahawks have some key playmakers back this week in WR Shaheed, RB Charbonnet and RB Price.  They are going to get their points against this Las Vegas defense, and Mendoza and company should be able to score some points against a Seattle defense that is without DE Leonard Williams this week.  Take the OVER.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Spurs -17 -115

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Cincinnati Bengals -3.5

I like the Bengals here in this revenge spot against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Bengals lost 30-27 at Pittsburgh back in Week 3.  They are a much better team since then, and I look for them to return the favor at home in the rematch.  The Bengals are 4-0 in their last four games overall with four straight wins by 7 points or more.  That includes their 34-17 win over the Falcons last week.  Some bye weeks are better than others.  The Steelers had a lot of momentum winning four consecutive games going into their bye last week.  Teams tend to come out flat after going into their bye happy.  The Steelers benefited from a very soft schedule of the Colts, Bucs, Saints and Browns for their 4-game winning streak.  And they have played one of the weakest schedules in the NFL overall.  The Bengals are actually 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games with a rest disadvantage of 3 or more days.  Give me the Bengals.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Oregon -13 -104

Sunday’s late-window matchup at AT&T Stadium pits a high-octane 49ers attack against a Cowboys defense that has spent most of the season looking for answers. The total sits at 55.5 after opening lower, and the ingredients on both sides of the ball point toward a game that can clear it.

Brock Purdy has been efficient all year, completing passes at a high rate with 17 touchdowns against five interceptions and a passer rating north of 109. He operates in a scheme that creates clean windows and easy completions, and he has already shown he can move the chains with his legs when needed. Dak Prescott counters with volume. He has thrown for over 2,300 yards with 16 scores, leaning on CeeDee Lamb as the primary target. Lamb has already cleared 900 receiving yards with seven touchdowns. When Prescott has time, the Cowboys can pile up yards quickly through the air. The quarterback contrast is not about who is better in a vacuum; it is about two capable passers facing defenses with clear vulnerabilities. Purdy gets a soft run front and a secondary that has been gashed on third downs. Prescott faces a 49ers defense that is stingier overall but still allows enough explosive plays to keep drives alive.

The running game tilts the scale further. Christian McCaffrey remains the engine of the 49ers’ offense, with nine rushing touchdowns and a dual-threat role that forces defenses to account for him on every snap. Dallas ranks near the bottom of the league in rushing yards allowed per game, giving up well over 140 on the ground and ranking among the worst units on third down. The Cowboys have surrendered multiple long runs this season, including several of 40-plus yards. When a scheme like Kyle Shanahan’s can mix zone runs, misdirection, and play-action off the run, a defense that struggles to set the edge tends to give up chunk plays. George Kittle adds another layer. He has been productive in the intermediate areas and in the red zone, and Dallas has not consistently taken those routes away.

On the other side, the Cowboys’ offense can keep pace. They average more than 27 points per game themselves, and their passing game has the pieces to stress a secondary. The 49ers defense is improved and ranks among the better units in points allowed, but it is not immune to big plays, particularly when the opposing quarterback can get the ball out quickly to Lamb. Both teams convert in the red zone at solid rates, which raises the ceiling when drives reach the 20-yard line.

The systems clash in a way that favors scoring. Shanahan’s offense ranks near the top of the league in yards per play and red-zone efficiency. It is designed to create numbers advantages and keep defenses guessing between the run and the pass. Dallas’ defense ranks near the bottom in total yards allowed, third-down stops, and points allowed. They have given up 20 or more points in a long stretch of consecutive games, a franchise-length streak that has stretched across multiple months. When a team that converts at a high rate on third down faces a unit that ranks last in that category, sustained drives become more likely. The Cowboys’ own offense, built around Prescott’s arm and Lamb’s separation, has shown it can score in bunches even when the defense is struggling. Recent Cowboys games have produced totals in the high 40s, 50s, and 60s multiple times this season. San Francisco’s last outing was a 38-17 win, continuing a pattern of putting points on the board against weaker fronts.

Longer-term patterns in the series reinforce the scoring outlook. The rivalry has produced several high-scoring games in recent years. The 2023 meeting ended 42-10 in favor of the 49ers. The 2024 game finished 30-24. The 2020 contest went 41-33. While not every meeting has been a shootout, the sample includes multiple results well above 50 combined points, especially when both offenses are functional. AT&T Stadium is a controlled indoor environment, removing wind or weather as a limiting factor. The line movement from the mid-52s up to 55.5 reflects money coming in on the over as the matchup details have settled.

Neither side is limited to a ground-and-pound approach that grinds the clock. Both have playmakers who can turn short fields or broken plays into touchdowns. McCaffrey and Kittle create matchup problems in space for Dallas. Lamb and the Cowboys’ receivers create separation against a 49ers secondary that has had to cover a lot of ground this year. When two offenses that rank in the top half of the league in scoring face defenses with clear soft spots—one that cannot stop the run or third downs, the other that is good but not elite at eliminating explosives—the combined output tends to climb.

The 55.5 number is not a soft total for a game featuring these two attacks. It is the highest on the Week 10 slate for a reason. The player-level edges, the scheme mismatches, the recent scoring form on both sides, and the indoor setting all lean the same direction. History between the clubs shows they are capable of clearing numbers in this range when the offenses are clicking. Everything points to a game that can go over 55.5.

My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Bettors figure to line up to back the Rams on Sunday as they roll into this game on the heels of three straight wins both SU and ATS and just welcomed back Myles Garrett to an already fearsome defense last week. Of course, Arizona is down to third-string rookie quarterback Carson Beck after trading away Jacoby Brissett and losing backup Gardner Minshew to an injury. I don't expect the Cardinals to put too much on Beck's plate here. While Arizona isn't a great team, it hasn't given up on the season, having split its last four games. The problem for the Cards has been stringing together consecutive strong performances which is why last Sunday's rather lifeless 14-3 loss in Seattle wasn't a surprise following an 'upset' win in Dallas the week previous. Arizona continues to play hard defensively, holding six of its nine opponents to 5.8 yards per play or fewer this season and its last two foes to just 3.8 and 4.8 yards per play. The Rams offense has been anything but explosive for much of the season and will be without WR Puka Nacua who joins Davante Adams on the sidelines this week. This one might not be pretty but we'll grab all the points we can get with Arizona. Take Arizona (8*).

1% GOLD RUSH on Chargers/Ravens: under 39

Free Play – Take #277 Seattle -6.5 over Las Vegas (4:05 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 15)

The Raiders traded Kurt Cousins to Minnesota, allowing the Fernando Mendoza era to begin in Sin City. Las Vegas climbed from +5 to +6.5, which gives you an idea of what the sportsbooks thought of Cousins' value. Seattle is coming off a much needed bye week, as they have played like a Super Bowl champion that spent a long weekend in Las Vegas. The Seahawks are only 5-4 and have not been in sync all year. This feels like a get-well spot for Seattle, with their outstanding defense facing a rookie QB making his first start. The inconsistent Seahawks offense takes on a Raiders defense that has surrendered 30 or more points in six straight games, tying an NFL record. Teams off byes have been excellent all season; plus, the Hawks are 7-0 ATS in away games off a home win, winning by 15.7 PPG.

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PSP Data Driven 1* Steelers.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. The Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. The Steelers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 head to head meetings.

The Cowboys are an enigma this season. They have more talent than they have shown so far this season, and have let games slip away. Their defense is 30th in total defense, 31st in rush defense, and 25th in scoring defense. The 49ers have two things going for them: balance and consistency. The Cowboys are top-10 in total offense, scoring offense, total defense, and scoring defense. Dallas should be able to keep this one close, but will find a way to lose in the end.

Play on San Fran. This is a FREE PLAY!