Free Sports Picks of the Day

3* on Air Force

Thursday's NBA Free Pick

PLAY ON: Nuggets +9.5

Featuring the NHL's top-ranked power play, Utah is fourth in goals scored. The Mammoth have produced four or more goals in seven of their 10 games.

More surprising than that is Seattle's offense. Having had 16 different goal scorers, the Kraken rank sixth in scoring. They have scored three or more goals in six consecutive games.  

Based on this and the team's recent history of being 5-0-1 to the Over during the past six meetings, I believe there will be more than six goals scored here.

The Mammoth have converted on 36.1% of its power play opportunities for a league-best 13 power play goals. Seattle ranks 25th in killing penalties and gives up the third most shots on goal in the league.

Utah is averaging six goals a game in its last four games vs. the Kraken.

PLAY TO: DENVER +8

JOKIC–MURRAY OFFENSE PRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE TO OKLAHOMA CITY'S DEFENSE

Denver opens its 2026-27 regular season against an Oklahoma City team coming off a 116-104 victory over San Antonio.

The Nuggets enter as substantial road underdogs despite possessing one of basketball's most productive offensive combinations in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

An independent computer projection forecasts Oklahoma City winning 118-113, creating a 3.5-point difference between its projected margin and the available Thunder -8.5 spread.

That discrepancy supports Denver, although the selection also requires examining personnel matchups, historical systems, roster changes and Oklahoma City's opening performance.

HISTORICAL SYSTEM — 65-44-3 ATS, 59.6%

Denver qualifies for the same historical opening-game situation that supports Cleveland.

The system identifies teams making their season debut against opponents playing their second regular-season game.

Historically, qualifying teams have compiled a 65-44-3 ATS record, covering 59.6% of graded decisions while producing approximately +16.6 units and a 13.8% ROI.

The historical average cover margin is approximately two points.

Denver is playing its first game, while Oklahoma City already defeated San Antonio on Tuesday.

The system provides supporting evidence, although its historical profitability has not been independently validated through out-of-sample testing.

NIKOLA JOKIC — DENVER'S MOST IMPORTANT MATCHUP ADVANTAGE

Jokic averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists last season while shooting 56.9% from the field.

His combination of scoring, rebounding and passing makes Denver unusually difficult to defend through conventional schemes.

Oklahoma City has several capable interior defenders, including Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and rookie Aday Mara.

Holmgren provides length, shot-blocking and mobility. Hartenstein offers physicality and rebounding, while Mara gives Oklahoma City another exceptionally tall defensive option.

However, Jokic creates a distinctly different challenge from Victor Wembanyama, whom Oklahoma City successfully contained Tuesday.

When opposing defenses aggressively double Jokic, he can exploit passing lanes and locate cutters or open perimeter shooters.

When opponents defend him individually, Jokic can attack favorable interior matchups.

His ability to manipulate defensive positioning also creates opportunities for Aaron Gordon around the basket.

Oklahoma City's depth provides defensive flexibility, but defending Jokic without compromising perimeter coverage is a demanding assignment.

JAMAL MURRAY AND DENVER'S PERIMETER OFFENSE

Murray averaged 25.4 points and 7.1 assists last season while shooting approximately 43.5% from three-point range.

His shooting creates substantial spacing around Jokic.

The Jokic–Murray two-man game remains particularly difficult to defend because both players can score or create opportunities for teammates.

Oklahoma City can counter with Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams in various defensive combinations.

Those defenders provide the Thunder with legitimate advantages in perimeter pressure and defensive versatility.

Nevertheless, Murray's shooting and Jokic's passing give Denver multiple ways to respond to aggressive coverage.

DENVER'S OFFSEASON ADDITIONS

Denver added DeMar DeRozan, providing another established offensive creator.

DeRozan averaged approximately 18.4 points last season and remains particularly effective generating offense from intermediate distances.

His presence could help Denver maintain offensive production when Murray or Jokic rests.

However, incorporating DeRozan also introduces questions involving ball distribution and spacing.

Denver additionally added Marvin Bagley III and Cam Whitmore, while losing several established contributors.

Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown and Jonas Valanciunas are no longer with the Nuggets.

Those departures create legitimate concerns about defensive continuity and reserve production.

Julian Strawther is also unavailable tonight because of a knee injury, reducing Denver's established bench shooting depth.

Spencer Jones remains questionable.

These concerns prevent the Nuggets from receiving a premium rating despite the projected spread advantage.

OKLAHOMA CITY'S OPENING VICTORY — DECEPTIVE SHOOTING STATISTICS

Oklahoma City defeated San Antonio 116-104 Tuesday, building a 26-point advantage before the Spurs mounted a second-half comeback.

The Thunder shot 45.2% from three-point range, converting 14 of 31 attempts.

However, reserve guard Jared McCain accounted for six of those 14 successful three-pointers.

McCain finished with 20 points in approximately 22 minutes, making six of eight shots from beyond the arc.

Without McCain's extraordinary performance, Oklahoma City's remaining players shot eight of 23 from three-point range, approximately 34.8%.

This distinction is important because the Thunder's overall perimeter efficiency was heavily influenced by one player's exceptional shooting performance.

McCain has legitimate offensive ability, but expecting another 75% three-point shooting performance would be unreasonable.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander also delivered an outstanding performance, scoring 32 points with six rebounds, four assists, three steals and three blocked shots.

He remains a significant concern for Denver's perimeter defense.

The Nuggets must account for his ability to penetrate, draw defensive attention and create scoring opportunities for teammates.

Oklahoma City also possesses substantial defensive depth and finished last season with the league's best defensive rating.

Those strengths make the Thunder deserving favorites, but the question is whether they deserve to be favored by more than eight points against Denver's established offensive personnel.

INDEPENDENT PROJECTIONS — MULTIPLE MODELS FAVOR DENVER AGAINST THE SPREAD

One independent projection forecasts Oklahoma City winning 118-113, a five-point margin.

Another projects approximately Oklahoma City 120, Denver 114, a six-point margin.

A third forecasts a seven-point Oklahoma City victory.

These projections disagree about the precise outcome but consistently place the expected winning margin below the available 8.5-point spread.

That provides supporting evidence for Denver.

However, our proprietary NBA Fair Line model has not yet completed historical calibration, and these third-party projections should not be represented as its independent output.

PUBLIC BETTING — A SIGNIFICANT WARNING

The strongest objection to Denver comes from public betting information.

Action Network reports approximately 63% of spread tickets supporting Denver.

Covers reports approximately 59%.

Both sources independently identify Denver as the majority-public side.

That makes Oklahoma City the contrarian position.

Under our handicapping framework, fading publicly supported underdogs deserves particular attention.

Denver's substantial projected spread value and historical system support are therefore offset by unfavorable contrarian evidence.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Oklahoma City opened around -7.5 and has been quoted between -7.5 and -8.5.

The movement toward Oklahoma City is modest and does not reach our usual two-point threshold for significant NBA spread movement.

At +8.5, Denver offers more protection than at the opening number.

At +7.5, the selection becomes less attractive, particularly given the public betting concerns.

NBA LUCK FACTOR

Denver has not played a regular-season game, and Oklahoma City has played only one.

Neither team has accumulated sufficient current-season information to establish reliable scoring-luck or win-conversion-luck measurements.

Accordingly, Luck Factor receives no meaningful handicapping weight.

Oklahoma City's exceptional three-point shooting against San Antonio is a legitimate regression consideration, but one game cannot establish a statistically reliable team Luck Factor.

FINAL HANDICAPPING ASSESSMENT

Denver offers an intriguing combination of historical system support, multiple independent projections favoring the Nuggets against the spread and an offensive foundation capable of challenging Oklahoma City's outstanding defense.

Jokic's exceptional passing and Murray's perimeter shooting provide Denver with legitimate answers to aggressive defensive pressure.

The Nuggets also benefit from receiving more than eight points despite possessing a roster built around two established offensive stars.

Nevertheless, Oklahoma City's defensive superiority, superior established depth, Denver's offseason personnel losses and corroborated majority-public support for the Nuggets prevent this selection from qualifying as a premium play.

The projected spread advantage is meaningful but not overwhelming, and the historical system has not undergone independent out-of-sample validation.

FREE PLAY — DENVER +8.5 over OKLAHOMA CITY — 9:30 ET

PLAY TO: DENVER +8

1* Free Pick on NC State -6½

Stanford is averaging 18.29 points a game this season while giving up 36.57.

That gap is the whole story here.

Strip out last week's 34-7 win over FCS Elon and the Cardinal's recent tape is ugly.

They lost 58-7 at Notre Dame, 57-3 at Wake Forest, and 35-7 at Duke.

Three blowouts by a combined 150-17 against real competition.

NC State comes in 3-3, and I'm not going to dress that up.

The Wolfpack got handled 38-14 by Wake Forest in their last outing.

But over their last 5 they're 3-2 and scoring 38 points a game, with wins over Louisville 31-28 and App State 41-31.

Wake Forest is the useful common opponent.

The same team that beat NC State by 24 beat Stanford by 54.

Even on a bad day, the Wolfpack are two to three touchdowns better than this Cardinal roster.

There is an injury wrinkle to track.

Dave Doeren said "We're day-to-day on Kamen Smith, JoJo Trader, Duke Scott, Tristan Teasdell." Scott was later listed out.

That matters, but NC State at 80 percent still outclasses a Stanford offense averaging 17 points over its last 5.

The number is the sell.

A team allowing 36.57 a game should be catching double digits against an ACC offense scoring 33.

Laying 6.5 against an opponent that loses its competitive games by 4 and 5 touchdowns is buying at a discount.

Stanford covers this only if NC State completely no-shows on a Friday night.

I'm not betting on that twice in a row.

I like NC State

1* FREE INFO PLAY Alavés -145

BIG Friday Card has 100% System Plays in CFB, Game 1 of the World Series and Canadian Football. Comp play below.

The CFB Comp Play is on Tulsa minus the point or two at 8:30 eastern. Tulsa hosts Army tonight after beating them on the road last season. Rob notes that CFB Friday night road dogs of less than 4 points are 1-11 straight up and 1-10-1 to the spread long term in week 13 or earlier if the total is 69 or lower and they are in off a home win and the home team is off a road win. This should be a higher scoring game and Tulsa will need to stop the vaunted Army ground game. The Cadets defense is not as good as years past and could struggle to contain the Tulsa offense here. Play on Tulsa. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take #387 Michigan State Spartans over UCLA Bruins (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 24, CBS)

UCLA has been a pleasant surprise in the Big Ten this season, standing as the only unbeaten team in either the Big Ten or SEC. Still, this is a hefty number to lay with a backup quarterback. The Bruins were one-dimensional against Wisconsin, and I expect Michigan State to make running the football difficult again.

The Spartans are rebuilding under a new coach, but they’ve shown they can compete, taking Illinois and Northwestern down to the wire. I expect another competitive effort here, with Michigan State keeping the final margin within 7–10 points.

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OVER 53.5

Detroit's offense is averaging nearly 33 PPG and Goff has been surgical with 12 TD passes and zero turnovers. Now he gets an extra week to prepare for a Green Bay defense whose recent improvement came against backup QBs and a struggling Dallas attack. That's a different assignment than dealing with this Lions offense. The problem for Detroit? Its defense is surrendering more than 400 yards per game, giving Love and Green Bay plenty of opportunities to answer. With Jacobs expected back, the Packers have another weapon to keep the scoreboard moving. This one has shootout written all over it. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER 53.5. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL O/U Play

The current run has been strong. 4-1 on NFL last week. A BIG Card is going up for this weekend, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over San Francisco at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We cashed a ticket fading the 49ers on Monday Night Football as they won but failed to cover against the Commanders. Still undefeated on the season, I think the Niners are ripe for the 'upset' as they head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta is coming off a tough home loss to the Bears last week. That marked its second straight loss both SU and ATS and it has quickly fallen out of favor with most bettors following a brief surge that saw it win consecutive primetime games in Green Bay and New Orleans. I still think the Falcons are a good team with plenty of weapons on offense and a competitive defense led by an underrated coordinator in Jeff Ulbrich. Look for the Falcons to scheme up a gameplan to take San Francisco down to the wire at the very least on Sunday, noting that this will only be the Niners second true road game of the season (they won the other by a field goal in Seattle two weeks ago). Take Atlanta (8*).

Ricky's 1* play on VAN.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Red Wings are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games.

- The Canucks are 4-2 ATS in the last 6 head to head meetings.

- The Red Wings are 0-3 ATS in their last 3  road games.

Verdict: The value is on the home Underdog.