Free Sports Picks of the Day

1* Free Pick on Twins/Rays over 7½

3* on Joselyne Edwards

Free Total Annihilator On Phillies vs Braves over 9 -115

Free Play on Twins +115

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Tampa Bay Rays -118

I love the spot for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight.  They had yesterday off while the Minnesota Twins were completing a 3-game series in New York against the Mets.  All three of those games were decided by 2 runs or less, and each of their last six games have been decided by 3 runs or fewer so their suspect bullpen has had heavy usage.

The Rays have been a potent offensive team this season scoring 4.8 runs per game while scoring at least 5 runs in nine of their last 12 games overall.  They get to face their former teammate in Taj Bradley for the first time and will clearly have the perfect scouting report on him.  Look for this to be the game Bradley regresses in a major way.

Drew Rasmussen is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 1-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.61 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 19 2/3 innings.  Rasmussen has held the Twins to one earned run and 5 base runners in 8 innings in his last two starts against them.  Bet the Rays Friday.

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Ricky's 1* play on HOU.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Houston is 9-3 in its last 12 games.

- LA Lakers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road.

- Houston is 7-1 in its last 8 games at home.

Verdict: The value is on the Home favorite.

1* Free Play on Oilers -124

1% GOLD RUSH on Oilers -1½

1* Free Pick on Spurs -2½

The market is overreacting to the news that Victor Wembanyama is expected to sit out Game 3 while in concussion protocol.

San Antonio is a 62-win juggernaut that still holds a massive talent advantage over a Portland team that finished twenty games behind them in the standings.

The Spurs' offense remains elite even without their big man, ranking 3rd in the NBA in scoring at 119.8 points per game during the regular season.

De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle provide a veteran presence and playmaking stability that Portland’s young backcourt cannot match over a high-stakes four quarters.

Portland’s Game 2 victory was fueled by an unsustainable 31-point performance from Scoot Henderson that the Spurs’ 8th-ranked defense will neutralize tonight.

San Antonio shot 38.6 percent from beyond the arc this season, and their ability to space the floor remains a nightmare for the Blazers' perimeter defenders.

The Spurs have won 81.4 percent of their games when favored by at least 1.5 points, proving they rarely let inferior opponents off the hook twice in a row.

Portland continues to struggle with ball security and ranks near the bottom of the league in turnover rate, which will lead to easy transition points for San Antonio.

Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson offer reliable scoring depth that will bridge the gap left by the absence of their star center in the frontcourt.

This line has dipped because of the injury report, but we are getting the vastly superior team at a price that essentially ignores their season-long dominance.

Expect the Spurs to play with high intensity to reclaim home-court advantage and prove their system is bigger than any one individual player.

I like the Spurs -2.5 (-110).

I have three premium plays released for today's MLB and NBA slate as I focus on the high-value spots identified in my latest analysis. You can find my full card and detailed breakdowns for this evening on my premium picks page.

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1* MLB - Pirates/Brewers FREE PICK on Pirates -127

Dave's Friday Free Play:

1* on Miami Marlins -108

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Miami Marlins tonight.  They had Thursday off while the Giants were completing a series with their biggest rivals in the Dodgers.  So the Marlins will have the rest edge, plus the edge on the rubber and at the plate in this one.  Sandy Alcantara is 2-2 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 5 starts this year.  Adrian Houser is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 4 starts this year.  The Marlins are hitting .257 while the Giants are hitting .242 this year.  Take Miami.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Lakers vs Rockets over 206½ -110

Celtics vs 76ers 
7 EST, Friday 
5-Unit bet on the Celtics priced as a 7-point favorite. 

The 76ers are coming off an incredible road win priced as a 14.5-point underdog at the Boston Garden Tuesday. That type of loss gets a superior team refocused to regain control of the playoff series and home court advantage. The Philadelphia fan base is feeding off their NHL Flyers and their remarkable run to get into the playoffs and now up 3-0 against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Teams from the same city can feed off the successes of each other during the playoff runs, but this is a big ask for the 76ers, who will again be without their former MVP Center Joel Embiid.  

Analytically, road favorites of four or more points that are coming off a loss priced as a favorite have bounced back well compiling a 21-6 SU (78%) and 19-7-1 ATS record for 73% winning bets since 2002. If that loss occurred at home, these embarrassed teams respond to the tune of a 7-1 SUATS record for 88% winning bets. 

In fact, home teams that are coming off a playoff upset road win are 123-114 SU (52%), but 95-140-2 ATS. If these teams are priced as home dogs of any size, they fail miserably with a 17-42 SU (29%) and 20-37-1 ATS record for just 35% winning bets since 2002.  

OVER 205.5

Locking this in early. Houston and LA shift the series to Houston and we’re on the over in Game 3. The Lakers surprised everyone with two wins in LA and have control of the series right now. This game should be wide open and we’re going to see Houston throw everything they have at the Lakers. Expect plenty of tempo both ways and for these two teams to get out in transition. Houston has to pick up the pace offensively as they’re at their best when they can open up a lot of shooting lanes. Grab the over. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be cheap bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Tonight’s FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER (up to 207.5). The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Friday FREE NBA O/U Play

1-2 THURSDAY! Ice cold L7 days, always transparent, & grinding! 226-194 54% +1322 since Mid-Dec! The board is live and today’s card is posted. A BIG 3× Play Card is up for today, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a Top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he's locked in right now. Clients are cashing, the consistency is showing, and he's climbing the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.

Friday's Free MLB Pick 

PLAY ON: Cubs +147

This weekend’s UFC Fight Night at the Apex has that familiar mix of rising stars and grizzled vets, but if I’m digging for the smartest underdog play on the whole card, I’m all in on Raoni Barcelos against Montel Jackson. I’ve been betting these cards long enough to spot when the lines are sleeping on a veteran who just keeps proving people wrong, and Barcelos fits that bill perfectly right now.

The 38-year-old Brazilian is rolling into this one on a rock-solid four-fight win streak. He’s already knocked off names like Ricky Simon and Cody Garbrandt, and who could forget him shocking the world with that gritty upset over hyped prospect Payton Talbott when basically everyone had him as a massive dog? That’s not luck, that’s a guy who’s figured out how to win the ugly, effective way late in his career. He brings serious wrestling roots as a multi-time Brazilian national champ, mixing in persistent chain takedowns with enough striking to keep opponents honest. In a division where control time and grinding out rounds have become the great equalizer, Barcelos is built for exactly that.

Jackson, on the other hand, is the classic athletic specimen who gets fans fired up. Taller, longer reach, legitimate one-punch knockout power, he’s the flashy striker who can end things quick if you let him. But here’s the angle that has me chuckling and reaching for the plus money: we’ve seen this movie before in bantamweight. Athletic power punchers like Jackson have been getting neutralized more and more lately when veteran grapplers close the distance and drag them into the mud. Jackson’s shown real vulnerability whenever someone chains wrestling and controls the pace on the mat, and that’s precisely Barcelos’ wheelhouse. The Brazilian doesn’t need to be the bigger or faster guy; he just needs to be smarter, and his recent form screams that he’s peaking at the right time.

What makes this even sharper is the broader trend we’ve watched unfold in the lighter divisions over the past couple years. Underdog grapplers and wrestlers have been cashing at a noticeably higher clip against pure strikers, especially when the favorite relies on athleticism and highlight-reel power. The public loves chasing the knockout artist, but time and again the experienced chain-wrestler spoils the party by turning the fight into a slow, methodical chess match. Bantamweight bouts have a habit of going the distance anyway, and that plays right into Barcelos’ hands—he’s the guy who thrives when things get ugly and decisions matter.

Sure, Jackson might come out looking like he could bench-press half the Apex crowd, but once Barcelos shoots in and starts dictating where the fight happens, all that extra size and explosiveness just turns into dead weight on the canvas. It’s almost comical how often these mismatches flip the script when the veteran knows how to weather the early storm and grind it out over three rounds.

There are a couple other live dogs on the card worth a peek, Aljamain Sterling bringing that crafty ex-champ IQ in the main event, or Joselyne Edwards swinging for the fences in the women’s spot, but Barcelos stands out as the cleanest stylistic edge at plus money. This one just has that sneaky “I’ve seen this before” vibe where the old dog reminds everyone that experience and mat control still rule the day. If you’re building a card this weekend, make sure the Brazilian vet is near the top of your list. Should be a fun one when the veteran magic kicks in.

My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Montreal at 7 pm et on Friday.

Tampa Bay's gameplan in this series is pretty clear at this point. It wants to drag Montreal into a fight and ultimately bully its way to a series victory. So far, it has employed that strategy to mixed results through two games with the series tied 1-1 entering Game 3 in Montreal on Friday. I think we're in for another relatively low-scoring, tight-checking affair as the series shifts to the Bell Centre. While the Canadiens are known for their offensive prowess, the 'under' is now 15-7 over their last 22 games. They've actually been trending in the wrong direction offensively for weeks, scoring two goals or less in five of their last eight contests. Tampa Bay has posted a 4-9 o/u record over its last 13 contests. Since the beginning of April, the Lightning have played four road games, producing two goals or less in all four contests including a 2-1 defeat here in Montreal on April 9th. I expect a more disciplined game from both teams on Friday after Games 1 and 2 were penalty-fests. Take the under (8*).

Twins vs Rays MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): Fade city on the slumping Minnesota Twins, stuck in a 1-6 funk. Taj Bradley (3-0, 1.63 ERA) has been sharp, but Rays' Drew Rasmussen (1-0, 2.75 ERA) shut down Minnesota last year, holding the Twinkies to one run on four hits over eight IP across two Rays victories.

The Bet: RAYS (3%). 

FREE PLAY on Cubs +153